dwmyers
11-05-2007, 09:03 AM
These are my latest power rankings. If Pittsburgh wins tonight, they'll likely dispalce the Giants as the #5 team on my chart. The power rankings as displayed here are based first on winning percentage and next on point spread. It's a purely scoring based ranking.
Global Statistics:
Games Home Wins Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
129 72 27.33 15.26 12.06
Rank Team Spread AvSco AvAll Wins Loss Ties
--------------------------------------------------
1 NE 23.11 39.44 16.33 9 - 0 - 0
2 IND 14.75 30.50 15.75 7 - 1 - 0
3 DAL 11.25 33.12 21.88 7 - 1 - 0
4 GB 6.50 24.25 17.75 7 - 1 - 0
5 NYG 5.12 25.00 19.88 6 - 2 - 0
6 TEN 5.12 20.62 15.50 6 - 2 - 0
7 DET 1.88 25.00 23.12 6 - 2 - 0
8 PIT 13.29 26.29 13.00 5 - 2 - 0
9 JAC 0.50 19.38 18.88 5 - 3 - 0
10 CLE -0.75 28.38 29.12 5 - 3 - 0
11 WAS -1.00 19.00 20.00 5 - 3 - 0
12 BAL 0.71 17.71 17.00 4 - 3 - 0
13 TB 2.22 18.22 16.00 5 - 4 - 0
14 SEA 3.25 20.88 17.62 4 - 4 - 0
15 SD 3.12 23.62 20.50 4 - 4 - 0
16 NO -1.62 21.62 23.25 4 - 4 - 0
17 KC -2.75 15.50 18.25 4 - 4 - 0
18 CAR -3.00 17.12 20.12 4 - 4 - 0
19 BUF -3.25 16.25 19.50 4 - 4 - 0
20 HOU -2.56 22.56 25.11 4 - 5 - 0
21 MIN 1.50 20.75 19.25 3 - 5 - 0
22 PHI 0.12 19.50 19.38 3 - 5 - 0
23 ARI -2.12 19.62 21.75 3 - 5 - 0
24 CHI -4.62 18.00 22.62 3 - 5 - 0
25 DEN -12.62 15.75 28.38 3 - 5 - 0
26 OAK -3.12 19.00 22.12 2 - 6 - 0
27 CIN -5.75 24.75 30.50 2 - 6 - 0
28 ATL -6.75 14.38 21.12 2 - 6 - 0
29 SF -10.25 13.00 23.25 2 - 6 - 0
30 NYJ -7.67 17.67 25.33 1 - 8 - 0
31 MIA -9.75 20.75 30.50 0 - 8 - 0
32 STL -15.00 12.38 27.38 0 - 8 - 0
I have other codes that calculate things like median point spread as opposed to average point spread. Medians are supposed to be more robust than averages. Does that really get you anything? I'd say yes, since median point spreads (alone) at the end of the season accurately predicted the AFC and NFC winners in 2002 and 2004 and the winner of the Super Bowl.
Summaries of the results are:
Scoring:
1 pt for AFC winner.
1 pt for NFC winner.
1 pt for Super Bowl winner.
Record means prediction based on record -and- average point spread.
Median means prediction based on median point spread alone.
2001
Predicted
Record) STL* versus PIT
Median) STL* versus PIT
Actual
NE* versus STL
Record 1 pt, Median 1 pt
2002
Predicted
Record) PHI* versus OAK
Median) TB* versus OAK
Actual
TB* versus OAK
Record 2 pts, Median 4 pts
2003
Predicted
Record) NE* versus STL
Median) KC versus PHI
Actual
NE* versus CAR
Record 4 pts, Median 4pts
2004
Predicted
Record) PIT* versus PHI
Median) NE* versus PHI
Actual
NE* versus PHI
Record 5 pts, Median 7 pts
2005
Predicted
Record) IND* versus SEA
Median) IND* versus NYG
Actual
PIT* versus SEA
Record 6 pts, Median 7 pts
2006
Predicted
Record) SD* versus CHI
Median) BAL versus CHI (even)
Actual
IND* versus CHI
Record 7 pts, Median 8 pts.
I suspect some combination of record and median point spread, using some folk rules, will be more accurate still.
David.
Global Statistics:
Games Home Wins Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
129 72 27.33 15.26 12.06
Rank Team Spread AvSco AvAll Wins Loss Ties
--------------------------------------------------
1 NE 23.11 39.44 16.33 9 - 0 - 0
2 IND 14.75 30.50 15.75 7 - 1 - 0
3 DAL 11.25 33.12 21.88 7 - 1 - 0
4 GB 6.50 24.25 17.75 7 - 1 - 0
5 NYG 5.12 25.00 19.88 6 - 2 - 0
6 TEN 5.12 20.62 15.50 6 - 2 - 0
7 DET 1.88 25.00 23.12 6 - 2 - 0
8 PIT 13.29 26.29 13.00 5 - 2 - 0
9 JAC 0.50 19.38 18.88 5 - 3 - 0
10 CLE -0.75 28.38 29.12 5 - 3 - 0
11 WAS -1.00 19.00 20.00 5 - 3 - 0
12 BAL 0.71 17.71 17.00 4 - 3 - 0
13 TB 2.22 18.22 16.00 5 - 4 - 0
14 SEA 3.25 20.88 17.62 4 - 4 - 0
15 SD 3.12 23.62 20.50 4 - 4 - 0
16 NO -1.62 21.62 23.25 4 - 4 - 0
17 KC -2.75 15.50 18.25 4 - 4 - 0
18 CAR -3.00 17.12 20.12 4 - 4 - 0
19 BUF -3.25 16.25 19.50 4 - 4 - 0
20 HOU -2.56 22.56 25.11 4 - 5 - 0
21 MIN 1.50 20.75 19.25 3 - 5 - 0
22 PHI 0.12 19.50 19.38 3 - 5 - 0
23 ARI -2.12 19.62 21.75 3 - 5 - 0
24 CHI -4.62 18.00 22.62 3 - 5 - 0
25 DEN -12.62 15.75 28.38 3 - 5 - 0
26 OAK -3.12 19.00 22.12 2 - 6 - 0
27 CIN -5.75 24.75 30.50 2 - 6 - 0
28 ATL -6.75 14.38 21.12 2 - 6 - 0
29 SF -10.25 13.00 23.25 2 - 6 - 0
30 NYJ -7.67 17.67 25.33 1 - 8 - 0
31 MIA -9.75 20.75 30.50 0 - 8 - 0
32 STL -15.00 12.38 27.38 0 - 8 - 0
I have other codes that calculate things like median point spread as opposed to average point spread. Medians are supposed to be more robust than averages. Does that really get you anything? I'd say yes, since median point spreads (alone) at the end of the season accurately predicted the AFC and NFC winners in 2002 and 2004 and the winner of the Super Bowl.
Summaries of the results are:
Scoring:
1 pt for AFC winner.
1 pt for NFC winner.
1 pt for Super Bowl winner.
Record means prediction based on record -and- average point spread.
Median means prediction based on median point spread alone.
2001
Predicted
Record) STL* versus PIT
Median) STL* versus PIT
Actual
NE* versus STL
Record 1 pt, Median 1 pt
2002
Predicted
Record) PHI* versus OAK
Median) TB* versus OAK
Actual
TB* versus OAK
Record 2 pts, Median 4 pts
2003
Predicted
Record) NE* versus STL
Median) KC versus PHI
Actual
NE* versus CAR
Record 4 pts, Median 4pts
2004
Predicted
Record) PIT* versus PHI
Median) NE* versus PHI
Actual
NE* versus PHI
Record 5 pts, Median 7 pts
2005
Predicted
Record) IND* versus SEA
Median) IND* versus NYG
Actual
PIT* versus SEA
Record 6 pts, Median 7 pts
2006
Predicted
Record) SD* versus CHI
Median) BAL versus CHI (even)
Actual
IND* versus CHI
Record 7 pts, Median 8 pts.
I suspect some combination of record and median point spread, using some folk rules, will be more accurate still.
David.