Hillary takes lead over Obama in national polling

[theogt]

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Monday, March 03, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Hillary Clinton inching ahead of Barack Obama nationally for the first time in three weeks. In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination nationally, Clinton now holds a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Obama, 45% to 44%. It’s the first lead of any kind enjoyed by Clinton since Obama won blowout victories in the Potomac Primaries on February 12 (see recent daily results (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history)). Ever since that time, expectations that Obama would win the nomination have grown dramatically (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/expectations_for_obama_to_win_nomination_nearing_9 0). Despite this, Obama has yet to reach the 50% level of support nationwide at any time in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Clinton’s modest rebound nationally corresponds to a similar pushback against Obamamania in both Ohio (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary) and Texas (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary). She now holds a modest lead in the Buckeye State while the winner in Texas will be determined by turnout and late deciders. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary slowing of Obama’s momentum or something more substantial. Rasmussen Markets (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/latest_results_from_rasmussen_markets) data shows that Obama is favored to win Texas while Clinton is favored in Ohio. Rasmussen Markets data is updated continuously and will be the first to measure the impact of Tuesday’s results on prospects for Clinton and Obama.

See video report (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/most_recent_videos) on March 4th primaries in Ohio and Texas.

Looking to the general election, John McCain has a slight lead over both Democrats. McCain now leads Obama 47% to 42% and Clinton 47% to 44% (see recent daily results (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history)). In New Jersey (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_jersey/new_jersey_2008_presidential_election), Clinton leads McCain but the race is a toss-up with Obama as the Democratic nominee.

Obama is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 47%. McCain’s numbers are 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable. Clinton earns positive reviews from 47% of Likely Voters nationwide and negative assessments from 50% (see recent daily results (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/overall_favorable_ratings_for_presidential_candida tes)). Dick Morris says that Hillary Clinton was unmasked in the last debate with Barack Obama (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_commentary/commentary_by_dick_morris/hillary_unmasked).

Obama is trusted more than McCain on the issues of health care and education (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/obama_trusted_on_health_care_and_education_mccain_ on_trade_agreements). McCain has the edge on negotiating trade agreements. Last week, a separate survey found that McCain is trusted more than Obama when it comes to National Security, the War in Iraq, and the Economy (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mccain_trusted_more_than_obama_on_national_securit y_iraq_and_the_economy). Obama is trusted more on the issue of Reducing Government Corruption.

In the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, John McCain currently earns 52% of the vote, Mike Huckabee attracts 31%, and Ron Paul is supported by 9% (see recent daily results (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history)).

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members (http://rasmussenreports.com/premium_service_description). See crosstabs for general election (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/premium_content/political_tracking_crosstabs/february_2008/crosstabs_weekly_match_ups_february_18_24_2008) match-ups and favorable ratings (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/premium_content/political_tracking_crosstabs/february_2008/crosstabs_weekly_favorable_ratings_february_18_24_ 2008).

[ThreeSportStar80]

Every other poll has Sen. Obama beating her...

[iceberg]

Every other poll has Sen. Obama beating her...

forgive me - but this just sounds so pleasant. well, for me anyway.

[Heisenberg]

Every other poll has Sen. Obama beating her...

Not only that, but there's at least one poll today that showed him starting to take a lead in Ohio.

I still have a bad feeling about tomorrow though. That she's going to win both Texas and Ohio by the slimmest of margins, make up no ground in delegates, but somehow use that as an excuse to keep campaigning.

[Hostile]

Not only that, but there's at least one poll today that showed him starting to take a lead in Ohio.

I still have a bad feeling about tomorrow though. That she's going to win both Texas and Ohio by the slimmest of margins, make up no ground in delegates, but somehow use that as an excuse to keep campaigning.I hope not. I hope he mops the floor with her.

[Jon88]

She's fired up and ready to go!

[Heisenberg]

I hope not. I hope he mops the floor with her.

I'm right there with you on this one. It's things like this that make it where I can't stand the woman:

http://trailblazers.beloblog.com/archives/2008/03/caucus-strategy.html

Tough Caucus Strategy
3:31 PM Sat, Mar 01, 2008 | Permalink
Christy Hoppe E-mail News tips
Hillary Clinton and her campaign is pushing for precinct captains for Texas' 8,000 Democratic polling places. They need to train folks to lead the caucus sessions that will determine more than 60 delegates after the primary voting is over.
In training materials being handed out by the Clinton campaign, it is clear that they want to control those caucus sessions.
The materials say in part, "DO NOT allow the supporter of another candidate to serve in leadership roles."
It goes on to say, "If our supporters are outnumbered, ask the Temporary Chair if one of our supporters can serves as the Secretary, in the interest of fairness.
"The control of the sign-in sheets and the announcement of the delegates allotted to each candidate are the critical functions of the Chair and Secretary. This is why it is so important that Hillary supporters hold these positions."

[Jon88]

I'm right there with you on this one. It's things like this that make it where I can't stand the woman:

http://trailblazers.beloblog.com/archives/2008/03/caucus-strategy.html

Tough Caucus Strategy
3:31 PM Sat, Mar 01, 2008 | Permalink
Christy Hoppe E-mail News tips
Hillary Clinton and her campaign is pushing for precinct captains for Texas' 8,000 Democratic polling places. They need to train folks to lead the caucus sessions that will determine more than 60 delegates after the primary voting is over.
In training materials being handed out by the Clinton campaign, it is clear that they want to control those caucus sessions.
The materials say in part, "DO NOT allow the supporter of another candidate to serve in leadership roles."
It goes on to say, "If our supporters are outnumbered, ask the Temporary Chair if one of our supporters can serves as the Secretary, in the interest of fairness.
"The control of the sign-in sheets and the announcement of the delegates allotted to each candidate are the critical functions of the Chair and Secretary. This is why it is so important that Hillary supporters hold these positions."

She's a snake-woman.

[theebs]

the saturday night live opening was pretty funny this week.

[Hostile]

I'm right there with you on this one. It's things like this that make it where I can't stand the woman:

http://trailblazers.beloblog.com/archives/2008/03/caucus-strategy.html

Tough Caucus Strategy
3:31 PM Sat, Mar 01, 2008 | Permalink
Christy Hoppe E-mail News tips
Hillary Clinton and her campaign is pushing for precinct captains for Texas' 8,000 Democratic polling places. They need to train folks to lead the caucus sessions that will determine more than 60 delegates after the primary voting is over.
In training materials being handed out by the Clinton campaign, it is clear that they want to control those caucus sessions.
The materials say in part, "DO NOT allow the supporter of another candidate to serve in leadership roles."
It goes on to say, "If our supporters are outnumbered, ask the Temporary Chair if one of our supporters can serves as the Secretary, in the interest of fairness.
"The control of the sign-in sheets and the announcement of the delegates allotted to each candidate are the critical functions of the Chair and Secretary. This is why it is so important that Hillary supporters hold these positions."Uh, that looks like outright trying to steal delegate votes.

[iceberg]

and you wonder how her supporters don't see she's nothing more than "anything" for power.

there is no right or wrong with her - only power and anything she has to do to get it. she'll use a technique and then blast someone for doing the same thing and just ignore what she did.

[theogt]

Not only that, but there's at least one poll today that showed him starting to take a lead in Ohio.

I still have a bad feeling about tomorrow though. That she's going to win both Texas and Ohio by the slimmest of margins, make up no ground in delegates, but somehow use that as an excuse to keep campaigning.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html

I think it's pretty safe to say she'll win Ohio by a comfortable margin. I think she wins Texas at this point with early voting going in her favor and the polls breaking her way late in the game. Even with just a small margin of victory in Texas, she has a strong case for staying in the race because she won the big states (e.g., New York, California, Texas, Ohio, Florida, and eventually Pennsylvania).

Basically, a small victory in Texas sends the Democrats to the convention without a nominee.