Rasmussen Reports: Both Hillary and McCain Widen Leads Over Obama

[theogt]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows ongoing volatility in the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Nationally, Hillary Clinton now holds a very slight advantage over Barack Obama, 46% to 44%. For the past week-and-a-half, Obama’s support has been between 44% and 47% every day. Clinton’s support has ranged from 42% to 46% (see recent daily results (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history)). In discussing the Pennsylvania Primary, Governor Ed Rendell indicates that the Clinton campaign is ready to keep fighting (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:void%280%29;) to the end of the primaries and beyond.

Looking ahead to the General Election in November, John McCain continues to lead both potential Democratic opponents. McCain leads Barack Obama 50% to 41% and Hillary Clinton 49% to 42% (see recent daily results (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history)). New polling shows McCain narrowly behind both Democrats in Nevada (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election)while McCain has a solid lead over both in North Carolina. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election )March has been a good month for John McCain. But, a Rasmussen Reports video notes that a good month of March doesn’t get you to the White House, that requires a good day in November. There is at least one major issue standing between McCain and a victory celebration in November. (http://rasmussenreports.com/)

On Monday, McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 42%. Obama’s reviews are 46% favorable and 52% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 42% favorable, 55% unfavorable (see recent daily results (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/overall_favorable_ratings_for_presidential_candida tes)).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update) shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 247 to 229. Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_2008_presidential_election),Michigan (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/michigan_2008_presidential_election), Minnesota (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/minnesota_2008_presidential_election),Colorado (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/colorado_2008_presidential_election), New Hampshire (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/new_hampshire_2008_presidential_election), and Pennsylvania. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_2008_presidential_election) He leads both Democrats in Georgia (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/georgia_2008_presidential_election)and Arkansas (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arkansas/arkansas_2008_presidential_election).Both Democrats continue to lead in New York (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_york/new_york_2008_presidential_election), Massachusetts (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/massachusetts/massachusetts_2008_presidential_election), Connecticut (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/connecticut/connecticut_presidential_election)and California (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/california_2008_presidential_election) (see summary of recent state general election polling (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_presidential_race_state_by_state_sna pshot)).

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members (http://rasmussenreports.com/premium_service_description). See crosstabs for general election (http://rasmussenreports.com/premium_content/political_tracking_crosstabs/march_2008/crosstabs_weekly_presidential_match_up_march_10_16 _2008) match-ups, favorable ratings (http://rasmussenreports.com/premium_content/political_tracking_crosstabs/march_2008/crosstabs_weekly_presidential_favorables_march_10_ 16_2008) and Democratic primary. (http://rasmussenreports.com/premium_content/political_tracking_crosstabs/march_2008/crosstabs_weekly_democratic_primary_march_10_16_20 08)

[Danny White]

Obama's lucky he's built this big lead, or else he'd be in serious trouble.

As it is, I still don't see how Hillary legitimately catches him, and I don't see the Dems overturning the delegates won through the democratic process.

But Obama will be entering the general election a very damaged candidate.

Once again, I sense the Democrats will lose an election they had no business losing.

[AbeBeta]

for the record, Rasmusen is consistently the most conservative poll -- they tend to draw a far more conservative sample. For example, relevant to other issues, Rasmusen generally reports the ratings of Bush approval ratings that are on the average 6-8% higher than most polls. Their samples tend to skew conservative.

I don't know enough about Rasmusen to know why this is always the case with their polls

[Danny White]

for the record, Rasmusen is consistently the most conservative poll -- they tend to draw a far more conservative sample. For example, relevant to other issues, Rasmusen generally reports the ratings of Bush approval ratings that are on the average 6-8% higher than most polls. Their samples tend to skew conservative.

I don't know enough about Rasmusen to know why this is always the case with their polls

So does that mean everything's fine in Obama-land? ;)

Seriously, though, the numbers at this point are almost meaningless... it's the TRENDS that should be of concern to Obama supporters (and Democrats).

[theogt]

for the record, Rasmusen is consistently the most conservative poll -- they tend to draw a far more conservative sample. For example, relevant to other issues, Rasmusen generally reports the ratings of Bush approval ratings that are on the average 6-8% higher than most polls. Their samples tend to skew conservative.

I don't know enough about Rasmusen to know why this is always the case with their pollsIn my experience, Rasmussen is one of the most consistently accurate polling organizations. I don't identify much of a conservative slant at all. I think if you look at his state by state "predictions" there's a considerable Democratic slant because he has states leaning Democrat that are actually polling in favor of Republicans.

[AbeBeta]

So does that mean everything's fine in Obama-land? ;)

Seriously, though, the numbers at this point are almost meaningless... it's the TRENDS that should be of concern to Obama supporters (and Democrats).

Just giving some context with regard to how this polls compares to others.

You might check out http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html which shows the AVERAGE of all the current polls

[theogt]

Here's just one data point on Rasmussen's accuracy:

Actual
Bush - 50.7%
Kerry - 48.3%

Rasmussen Final
Bush - 50.2%
Kerry - 48.5%

That's remarkably accurate (and a slight Democratic favor).

[ConcordCowboy]

for the record, Rasmusen is consistently the most conservative poll -- they tend to draw a far more conservative sample. For example, relevant to other issues, Rasmusen generally reports the ratings of Bush approval ratings that are on the average 6-8% higher than most polls. Their samples tend to skew conservative.

I don't know enough about Rasmusen to know why this is always the case with their polls

OK now we know their polls are FOS.

:p:

[theogt]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/state_by_state_actual_results_vs_rasmussen_reports _polls

If you look at the 2004 general election, Rasmussen underestimated Republican votes in 22 out of 24 states. Hard to say there's a "conservative slant" in that kind of polling.

[Sasquatch]

Here's just one data point on Rasmussen's accuracy:

Actual
Bush - 50.7%
Kerry - 48.3%

Rasmussen Final
Bush - 50.2%
Kerry - 48.5%

That's remarkably accurate (and a slight Democratic favor).

Do you have the 2000 figures?

[Doomsday101]

I find polls interesting but if the last few election tell us anything polls are meaningless on election day. It all comes down to who can get the vote out on that day. I know many people who love telling others who they will vote for but on election day many end up finding excuses of why they failed to get to the polls.

[Sasquatch]

OK now we know their polls are FOS.

:p:

On the contrary, they're reputed to be quite accurate. ;)

Sunday, March 28, 2008

On Sunday, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral College Votes. Republicans are favored in states with 189 Votes (see recent daily results (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/electoral_college_history)). New polling from Georgia (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/georgia_2008_presidential_election) and Arkansas (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arkansas/arkansas_2008_presidential_election) had no impact on the projections.

Rasmussen reports (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update)

[theogt]

Do you have the 2000 figures?No. I'm trying to think -- I don't think he was doing polling in 2000.

[ConcordCowboy]

On the contrary, they're reputed to be quite accurate. ;)

Sunday, March 28, 2008

On Sunday, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral College Votes. Republicans are favored in states with 189 Votes (see recent daily results (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/electoral_college_history)). New polling from Georgia (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/georgia_2008_presidential_election) and Arkansas (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arkansas/arkansas_2008_presidential_election) had no impact on the projections.

Rasmussen reports (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update)

Well alright then!

Things are looking up...Rasmussen has from time to time been right. :D

[AbeBeta]

Here's just one data point on Rasmussen's accuracy:

Actual
Bush - 50.7%
Kerry - 48.3%

Rasmussen Final
Bush - 50.2%
Kerry - 48.5%

That's remarkably accurate (and a slight Democratic favor).

I didn't claim they weren't accurate -- only that comparisons with other polls generally place their results on the conservative end

What's the phrase that you financial folks use ... "Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results"

[ConcordCowboy]

I didn't claim they weren't accurate -- only that comparisons with other polls generally place their results on the conservative end

What's the phrase that you financial folks use ... "Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results"

I like that.

:p:

[Sasquatch]

No. I'm trying to think -- I don't think he was doing polling in 2000.

I don't know anything about this site, so take it for what it's worth.

Rasmussen was quite a bit off in 2000, predicting a 49% to 40% victory for Al Gore, whereas the actual results were 48% to 48%.

LINK (http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/20)

[theogt]

On the contrary, they're reputed to be quite accurate. ;)

Sunday, March 28, 2008

On Sunday, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral College Votes. Republicans are favored in states with 189 Votes (see recent daily results (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/electoral_college_history)). New polling from Georgia (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/georgia_2008_presidential_election) and Arkansas (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arkansas/arkansas_2008_presidential_election) had no impact on the projections.

Rasmussen reports (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update)The funny thing about his Balance of Power Calculator (as I mentioned earlier in the thread) is that he shows a Democratic bias. He has Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Washington as "leaning" or "likely" Democratic, yet he has McCain leading both Democrats in all of those states. He also has McCain with comfortable leads in Ohio yet it's considered a "toss-up" state.

[theogt]

I don't know anything about this site, so take it for what it's worth.

Rasmussen was quite a bit off in 2000, predicting a 49% to 40% victory for Al Gore, whereas the actual results were 48% to 48%.

LINK (http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/20)I don't know what "alternative methods" he used in 2000, but the methods he uses now (pre-recorded polling) is widely considered pretty accurate. Like I said, I don't remember him in 2000. I started watching his polling in 2004. Perhaps there was some change in methodology.

[Sasquatch]

is widely considered pretty accurate.

Agreed. Wasn't trying to trip you up.

I don't suppose you know how he's done in the democratic primaries up to this point relative to other pollsters?

[theogt]

Agreed. Wasn't trying to trip you up.

I don't suppose you know how he's done in the democratic primaries up to this point relative to other pollsters?I haven't seen any major article/study comparing them all, no. But you can look at his archive here (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/older_content/home/most_recent_articles/most_recent_articles).

[theogt]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Clinton's lead now up to 3 points over Obama. If Obama wins the nomination only 64% of Democratic voters say they'd vote for him in the general election (vs. 71% who say they'd vote for Hillary in the general).

I thought for sure the slide would reverse itself by now.

[SultanOfSix]

I think there needs to start being a paper trail associated with voting in coming elections, and I think that those people who voted should be able to grant access as to whether their votes can be deemed public or not for general public viewing purposes and so that third party calculations are possible.

[Danny White]

I think there needs to start being a paper trail associated with voting in coming elections, and I think that those people who voted should be able to grant access as to whether their votes can be deemed public or not for general public viewing purposes and so that third party calculations are possible.

Third party calculations?

Who do you think calculates the votes under the current situation?

[Heisenberg]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105664/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Clinton-Remain-Nearly-Tied.aspx

Latest Gallup

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary

Latest Pennsylvania poll shows Obama closing to within 10.

[hank2k]

Its not even April. Ross Perot led Bill Clinton at this time back in 92.

[Heisenberg]

http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/3748/98507214ws3.gif

[silverbear]

So does that mean everything's fine in Obama-land? ;)

Seriously, though, the numbers at this point are almost meaningless... it's the TRENDS that should be of concern to Obama supporters (and Democrats).

This is a very good point, about trends... and the trend seems to be that Obama is already starting to recoup the polling points that he lost thanks to his idiot minister... in another week or two, we should have a clearer picture of that trend, or if that trend will hold up...

[silverbear]

Just giving some context with regard to how this polls compares to others.

You might check out http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html which shows the AVERAGE of all the current polls

Predictably, Reuters and Zogby have the most optimistic numbers for the GOP... it worked that way all though the 04 and 06 campaigns, too... even Faux News polls don't paint the consistently rosy picture of the GOP that Rasmussen and Zogby do...

Edit-- it was equally predictable that CBS' poll gave Obama his most optimistic numbers on that chart... their pollsters seem to have a clear leftist bias...