Daily tracking polls starting to align

[Heisenberg]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Rasmussen:

Obama 51%
Clinton 41%

McCain 46%
Obama 45%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106282/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-9point-Lead-Over-Clinton.aspx

Gallup:

Obama 52%
Clinton 43%

McCain 45%
Obama 45%

[Doomsday101]

I expect this to be a very tight race and it comes down to which candidate can get the vote out on election day.

[Heisenberg]

I expect this to be a very tight race and it comes down to which candidate can get the vote out on election day.

I expect that by the time election day rolls around, it's going to be neck and neck. I do think that Obama will get a good bump once he gets the nomination, but that McCain will close that gap by the time the election rolls around.

[REDVOLUTION]

I expect this to be a very tight race and it comes down to which candidate can get the vote out on election day.

What gave it away.... the last two elections :D
Whats happenin' Doom....



I expect that by the time election day rolls around, it's going to be neck and neck. I do think that Obama will get a good bump once he gets the nomination, but that McCain will close that gap by the time the election rolls around.

Agreed.
Unfortunately all of the candidates concern me. Whoever wins - we lose.

[Doomsday101]

What gave it away.... the last two elections :D
Whats happenin' Doom....





Agreed.
Unfortunately all of the candidates concern me. Whoever wins - we lose.

The way some are talking you would think it would be a slam dunk for the Dems.

[Heisenberg]

The way some are talking you would think it would be a slam dunk for the Dems.

I'm not sure it'll ever be a slam dunk. If it were Bush himself running again, then I could see the Dems having a huge advantage, but McCain is a totally different animal. He may align himself on some issues with Bush, but overall, he does march to the beat of his own drum.

[Doomsday101]

I'm not sure it'll ever be a slam dunk. If it were Bush himself running again, then I could see the Dems having a huge advantage, but McCain is a totally different animal. He may align himself on some issues with Bush, but overall, he does march to the beat of his own drum.

I agree with what you are saying but that is not what I have been hearing from Dems who think this is a slam dunk then again they thought after the 2000 election that Bush would only be in office 1 term. :laugh2:

[zrinkill]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Rasmussen:

Obama 51%
Clinton 41%

McCain 46%
Obama 45%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106282/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-9point-Lead-Over-Clinton.aspx

Gallup:

Obama 52%
Clinton 43%

McCain 45%
Obama 45%

Somewhere jtterrel cries out.

[iceberg]

I'm not sure it'll ever be a slam dunk. If it were Bush himself running again, then I could see the Dems having a huge advantage, but McCain is a totally different animal. He may align himself on some issues with Bush, but overall, he does march to the beat of his own drum.

one of the biggest reasons why i like mccain as well and will likely vote for him in the end. i don't want to elect a party or just party politics into office. i want to start finding non-branded solutions we can all work towards.

that alone is so hard when in here alone you see people mistrust anything they can quickly label whatever they hate and keep hating.

[Doomsday101]

Somewhere jtterrel cries out.

Well I hope she takes PA. because if she does I would expect her to stay in the race longer and continue to be a weight around Obama neck a while longer

[WiPatfan]

I suspect she will win with +5-8%, which is not enough to make a difference. Yet her machine will crank out the noise that she crushed him and deserves to be the nominee.

(Yeah, I know that PA polls have the race as a dead heat, but I just can't see Obama winning the heartland of PA.)

[Scorpion42]

Well I hope she takes PA. because if she does I would expect her to stay in the race longer and continue to be a weight around Obama neck a while longer


Even if Senator Clinton loses Pennslyvania? She's not going to drop out of the race. She's been waiting for this moment in time for the last 20 years. Even if, Hillary Clinton doesn't win the nomination this year? You haven't heard the last from her. She's only sixty years old. I repeat, 60 years old.

She'll run again, just like John Edwards did. Who knows? Senator Clinton may be a heartbeat away from being President? If Senator Obama chooses the so called, "Dream Ticket?" As in a Obama/Clinton ticket.

Btw, I'm not rooting for any liberal holding the keys to a little white house, on Pennslyvania Avenue. Especally, Senator Clinton.

As Rush Limbaugh always says: A tiger is a tiger, A liberal is a liberal."

[Doomsday101]

Even if Senator Clinton loses Pennslyvania? She's not going to drop out of the race. She's been waiting for this moment in time for the last 20 years. Even if, Hillary Clinton doesn't win the nomination this year? You haven't heard the last from her. She's only sixty years old. I repeat, 60 years old.

She'll run again, just like John Edwards did. Who knows? Senator Clinton may be a heartbeat away from being President? If Senator Obama chooses the so called, "Dream Ticket?" As in a Obama/Clinton ticket.

Btw, I'm not rooting for any liberal holding the keys to a little white house, on Pennslyvania Avenue. Especally, Senator Clinton.

As Rush Limbaugh always says: A tiger is a tiger, A liberal is a liberal."

I think there will be a lot more pressure from her party for her to drop out if she fails to win PA. I think to have any chance at persuading delegates to cast their vote for her she has to at least win the big electoral states. I may not care for Hillary but I don’t think she is stupid when it comes to the game of politics and without winning PA I don’t think she will stay in the race.

[iceberg]

Even if Senator Clinton loses Pennslyvania? She's not going to drop out of the race. She's been waiting for this moment in time for the last 20 years. Even if, Hillary Clinton doesn't win the nomination this year? You haven't heard the last from her. She's only sixty years old. I repeat, 60 years old.

She'll run again, just like John Edwards did. Who knows? Senator Clinton may be a heartbeat away from being President? If Senator Obama chooses the so called, "Dream Ticket?" As in a Obama/Clinton ticket.

Btw, I'm not rooting for any liberal holding the keys to a little white house, on Pennslyvania Avenue. Especally, Senator Clinton.

As Rush Limbaugh always says: A tiger is a tiger, A liberal is a liberal."

1. no way would obama do that. (put hillary on as vp) unless he has some hidden death wish.
2. much of clinton has been shown here in this election that will follow her around forever. think not? people still rag on jerry jones for 10 years ago despite todays success. people see what they want in time and even with time that perception is harder to change.

she's done a lot of damage to her name this time around with all the lies. people overlooked for awhile but now she's a target for it. unless she stops lying today (and she won't) people will now simply wait to discover / unveil the next lie.

their fault for doing it or hers for lying? i vote #2.

[theogt]

I'd be very suspicious of the current Rasmussen number. Check out the Obama/McCain spread over the past 8 days. The one point spread in today's release may be an outlier. Or it maybe a longer term trend. Who knows.

5
6
6
7
3
3
5
1

Going from 5 points to 1 points is quite the jump, when nothing of note really happened in the past few days.

[Scorpion42]

I think there will be a lot more pressure from her party for her to drop out if she fails to win PA. I think to have any chance at persuading delegates to cast their vote for her she has to at least win the big electoral states. I may not care for Hillary but I don’t think she is stupid when it comes to the game of politics and without winning PA I don’t think she will stay in the race.

You forget one one! Her hubby wants back in the White House. Just as much as Senator Clinton wants back in the White House. They're not going to stop, just because they lose one state. They're the Clinton's, not the Smith's from New Jersey.

[Doomsday101]

You forget one one! Her hubby wants back in the White House. Just as much as Senator Clinton wants back in the White House. They're not going to stop, just because they lose one state. They're the Clinton's, not the Smith's from New Jersey.

He may want back in the white house but they are also politicians and understand what the score is. He understood before Texas and Ohio that if they lost it was over and said that exact thing. PA is the next big step and I think they both realize she must win it to have any chance at all. This is not about losing 1 state, they could lose NC, KY and a few others but they need PA a state with a large number of electoral votes in the general election for them to have a leg to stand on when they go to the convention. That is the only thing she has left is to show that she can carry the big electoral states because that is where the general election is won or lost.

[silverbear]

Unfortunately all of the candidates concern me. Whoever wins - we lose.

I look at it a bit differently; whoever wins, has to be an improvement over what we've had the last 8 years... like you, none of the candidates really excite me, but none of them are Dubya, either...

[silverbear]

I agree with what you are saying but that is not what I have been hearing from Dems who think this is a slam dunk then again they thought after the 2000 election that Bush would only be in office 1 term. :laugh2:

And if Dubya hadn't been able to play on our war hysteria, a hysteria he created, he would have been... back then, there were many Americans who thought that if you didn't back the war, and the President, you were unpatriotic...

Most of us know better now... the GOP will not be able to play that card again, in fact they'd do just about anything to deflect the debate away from that war...

[silverbear]

one of the biggest reasons why i like mccain as well and will likely vote for him in the end. i don't want to elect a party or just party politics into office. i want to start finding non-branded solutions we can all work towards.

that alone is so hard when in here alone you see people mistrust anything they can quickly label whatever they hate and keep hating.

Ice, do you really expect us to believe that you'd EVER contemplate voting for a Democratic candidate, even if said candidate was the essence of the political "maverick"??

Pardon me, but I remember your rabid defenses of Dubya too well to ever buy that...

I would have bet the family ranch that you'd support McCain as soon as he became the party's official candidate...

[silverbear]

As Rush Limbaugh always says: A tiger is a tiger, A liberal is a liberal."

Yeah, you sound like the archetypical dittohead...

[silverbear]

He may want back in the white house but they are also politicians and understand what the score is. He understood before Texas and Ohio that if they lost it was over and said that exact thing. PA is the next big step and I think they both realize she must win it to have any chance at all. This is not about losing 1 state, they could lose NC, KY and a few others but they need PA a state with a large number of electoral votes in the general election for them to have a leg to stand on when they go to the convention. That is the only thing she has left is to show that she can carry the big electoral states because that is where the general election is won or lost.

Her problem is that many of the big electoral states are made up of Yellow Dog Democrats (California, New York), and they'll go for Obama, if Obama is the chosen candidate... so her arguments are not particularly compelling in that regard...

What will be crucial is the ability to carry SWING states, like my Virginia, and Obama has consistently fared better in those states than she has...

[Doomsday101]

Her problem is that many of the big electoral states are made up of Yellow Dog Democrats (California, New York), and they'll go for Obama, if Obama is the chosen candidate... so her arguments are not particularly compelling in that regard...

What will be crucial is the ability to carry SWING states, like my Virginia, and Obama has consistently fared better in those states than she has...

You may be right I'm only stating her opinion and only option out there which is to show stronger than Obama in big electoral states and the fact is she has. PA is critical for her as it is one of the last big electoral states left.

[Jordan55]

http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/W/0/2/campain_08.jpg

[silverbear]

You may be right I'm only stating her opinion and only option out there which is to show stronger than Obama in big electoral states and the fact is she has. PA is critical for her as it is one of the last big electoral states left.

Actually, I hadn't really thought about the dynamics of the states Clinton has won versus the ones Obama has won until I read an op-ed piece on the subject on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball... when I read what was written, it made a lot of sense to me... most of the states Clinton has won in the primaries will go Democrat no matter which one of them wins the nomination...

Similarly, any number of the states that Obama has won aren't about to go Democrat... so what's important, or should be, is which of the candidates has run strongest in the swing states...

That was the thrust of the op-ed piece I referred to, and it made me go "hmmmm"...

[silverbear]

http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/W/0/2/campain_08.jpg

More wishful thinking...

[Jordan55]

More wishful thinking...



Bear, from reading your posts on McCain, if wasn't for his position on Iraq, I believe you might actually have considered him for president.
I posted an article recently where Obama, is actually considering leaving behind a military force of 80,000 troops. In his questioning of Petresus yesterday, he was not as cut and dry about his position on the war and at least was respectful of the General as compared to Hillary, who anounced her position right off the bat.

[Jordan55]

More wishful thinking...

Just a little humor, to lighten things up.
We will know in November.

[Doomsday101]

And if Dubya hadn't been able to play on our war hysteria, a hysteria he created, he would have been... back then, there were many Americans who thought that if you didn't back the war, and the President, you were unpatriotic...

Most of us know better now... the GOP will not be able to play that card again, in fact they'd do just about anything to deflect the debate away from that war...

Please, maybe if the Dems did not stick a hardcore liberal out there in Kerry the Dems would have done better but they didn't in large part because the party is leaning more left than ever before. This time around you stick to hardcore liberals once again which is great news for the GOP

[iceberg]

Ice, do you really expect us to believe that you'd EVER contemplate voting for a Democratic candidate, even if said candidate was the essence of the political "maverick"??

Pardon me, but I remember your rabid defenses of Dubya too well to ever buy that...

I would have bet the family ranch that you'd support McCain as soon as he became the party's official candidate...

at this point sb i really don't care what you believe cause regardless of what i'd say, you'll believe what you want and cuss me out in the process.

have you heard me rail on obama? no. i've supported him and gotten to really appreciate where he's coming from. political speel aside.

you hear me talk up mccain? no. but i do respect him and will keep listening to what he says.

if you really think my mind is that closed to one set and one way - just understand, i'm not you. quit thinking i am or should be and maybe we'd argue less.

[Heisenberg]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Rasmussen:

Obama 50%
Clinton 41%

Obama 46%
McCain 45%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106369/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-Clinton-Points.aspx

Gallup:

Obama 51%
Clinton 41%

Obama 46%
McCain 44%

[Scorpion42]

1. no way would obama do that. (put hillary on as vp) unless he has some hidden death wish.
2. much of clinton has been shown here in this election that will follow her around forever. think not? people still rag on jerry jones for 10 years ago despite todays success. people see what they want in time and even with time that perception is harder to change.

she's done a lot of damage to her name this time around with all the lies. people overlooked for awhile but now she's a target for it. unless she stops lying today (and she won't) people will now simply wait to discover / unveil the next lie.

their fault for doing it or hers for lying? i vote #2.

[COLOR="Blue"]It would be stupid for Senator Obama to name "Sir Hillary," as a running mate. Right now, there's a ton of animosity between the two candidates. There's not going to be a quick fix, either.

The media hasn't been friendly to the Clinton's this time around. As they were in 1992, & 1996. Lets not forget, the 2000 election when Hillary Clinton first ran for senator. The Clinton's had aspirations of reclaiming the Whte House before she even won her first election.

Even if, Senator Clinton doesn't win the nomination this time around? She'll run again for her senate seat in 2012. Unfortunately, she's one of my senators. Along with Senator Chuck E. Schumer. I don't think the NYGOP will ever put up a strong conservative against either of them. [COLOR]

I kind a getting off topic, so I'll end it now.

[Scorpion42]

I think there will be a lot more pressure from her party for her to drop out if she fails to win PA. I think to have any chance at persuading delegates to cast their vote for her she has to at least win the big electoral states. I may not care for Hillary but I don’t think she is stupid when it comes to the game of politics and without winning PA I don’t think she will stay in the race.

I'll be honest with you, I don't like Bill or Hillary Clinton. If you think, Senator Clinton is going to to drop out of the race, just because, she loses Pennslyvania? No way will it happen! She's not going to bow out, just because of peer pressure. Sure! The media wants her to bow out, so they can start talking about the general election. Its not going to happen anytime soon.

Being a conservative, I wouldn't belief half the things that comes out of her mouth. However, I do belief it when she says, "I'm not dropping out of the race until the convention is over." It may not be the direct quote, but its close enough.

Its all I'm going to say to ya, Doomsday. If I end up being wrong about it. So be it! I can live with being wrong once in a while. :cool:

[Doomsday101]

I'll be honest with you, I don't like Bill or Hillary Clinton. If you think, Senator Clinton is going to to drop out of the race, just because, she loses Pennslyvania? No way will it happen! She's not going to bow out, just because of peer pressure. Sure! The media wants her to bow out, so they can start talking about the general election. Its not going to happen anytime soon.

Being a conservative, I wouldn't belief half the things that comes out of her mouth. However, I do belief it when she says, "I'm not dropping out of the race until the convention is over." It may not be the direct quote, but its close enough.

Its all I'm going to say to ya, Doomsday. If I end up being wrong about it. So be it! I can live with being wrong once in a while. :cool:

I don't care for her either and I hope she stays in the race no matter what but in my view I think PA will determine if she continues or not for the reasons I stated. To continue to run she needs people within the party backing her without them she is not stupid or blind she knows she would have no chance. Had she lost Texas and Ohio her backers within the Dem party would have bailed but she won and they hung in there with her but if she loses PA I think they bail and she will drop out

[Scorpion42]

Yeah, you sound like the archetypical dittohead...

I knew, I'd get a liberal to bite on the Rush Limbaugh comment. Just mentioning Rush Limbaugh's name entices liberals to speak out. "It sends chills down there back." Is what Rush Limbaugh always says.

I guess, I'll go listen to Rush some more. Oooh nuts! He's not on the rest of the week. What will I ever do? I know, I'll turn on Sean Hannity. :shades:

Liberals only wish they had a Rush Limbaugh counterpart? Where's Ed Schulz, nowadays? He's not on the air anymore in, Asperville. :clap2: :thumbup:

[Heisenberg]

http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/8416/hillarycreepyanimpd7.gif

[BrAinPaiNt]

http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/8416/hillarycreepyanimpd7.gif

Man alive!!

Thanks for the morning scary image.:laugh2:

[theogt]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Rasmussen:

Obama 50%
Clinton 41%

Obama 46%
McCain 45%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106369/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-Clinton-Points.aspx

Gallup:

Obama 51%
Clinton 41%

Obama 46%
McCain 44%http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

Turns out Rasmussen was just a blip. McCain is back to 7-8 point leads. Or perhaps that's a result of Obama's "guns and religion" crack.

[Heisenberg]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

Turns out Rasmussen was just a blip. McCain is back to 7-8 point leads. Or perhaps that's a result of Obama's "guns and religion" crack.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106504/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Numbers-Holding-Strong.aspx

Gallup shows him leading Clinton by double digits and McCain by 2. So, it's been steady for a while now.

[theogt]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106504/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Numbers-Holding-Strong.aspx

Gallup shows him leading Clinton by double digits and McCain by 2. So, it's been steady for a while now.Gallup has always been much more favorable to Obama. My point earlier in the thread was that the recent Rasmussen results might be abnormal (rather than a long-term convergence of the two polls).

[Heisenberg]

Gallup has always been much more favorable to Obama. My point earlier in the thread was that the recent Rasmussen results might be abnormal (rather than a long-term convergence of the two polls).

True. I dunno. That's why I like http://www.realclearpolitics.com and their poll averages. Gives you a pretty good feel.

[theogt]

True. I dunno. That's why I like http://www.realclearpolitics.com and their poll averages. Gives you a pretty good feel.RCP is a fantastic resource, but I'm not keen on the idea of averaging polls. But it is very helpful to look at the multiple polls and the variance, and trying to get a handle on what causes that variance.

[WoodysGirl]

Penn race unchanged by Obama remark

David Paul Kuhn
Tue Apr 15, 10:46 AM ET



Barack Obama’s “bitter” comment may have had little immediate impact in the Democratic primary race in Pennsylvania, according to a poll out this morning.

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The Quinnipiac University poll found that Hillary Clinton leads Obama 50 to 44 percent, a margin unchanged since the organization's last statewide poll at the beginning of the month.

The unchanged margin does not come as a great surprise. Obama’s remark was made public Friday afternoon, leaving only two days to permeate the public.

The poll, conducted Wednesday through Sunday night, revealed no noticeable shift in support for polling done on Saturday or Sunday. It is the first indication that Obama’s controversial remark may not dramatically change the head-to-head match-up in Pennsylvania, which holds its primary next Tuesday.

Clinton has long enjoyed a significantly larger portion of white working class and rural support, the same Democratic voters most likely to take issue with his comments at a San Francisco fundraiser April 6 that small town Americans economic struggle leads them to feel “bitter” and “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment.”

Clinton wins those Pennsylvania Democrats who once supported Ronald Reagan, 55 to 40 percent, according to the poll.

Only Democrats can vote in Pennsylvania’s primary. Polling has already indicated that Obama’s statement is unpopular within the larger public but it has primarily offended moderates and conservatives.

A strong majority of Americans, 56 percent according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released Monday, disagree with Obama’s “bitter” remark.

But Rasmussen also found that a plurality of politically liberal voters, 46 percent, agree with Obama’s remark while a third disagree. A slim majority of moderate voters, 51 percent, disagree while 27 percent agree. Not surprisingly, three in four conservatives disagree with Obama’s comment but only 12 percent agree.

The negative sentiment expressed by moderates is likely to concern Obama’s campaign looking ahead to a possible general election matchup against John McCain. Obama owes a significant portion of his victories to the support of moderates and independents.

In the near term, however, Democrats have larger concerns about sowing up their base. The Quinnipiac poll has found that 26 percent of Clinton supporters would back McCain if Obama won the Democratic nomination, while 19 percent of Obama’s supporters would switch to McCain if Clinton won. The findings mimic national polls conducted last month, illustrating the durable divisions caused by the prolonged and at time bitter primary race.

The Gallup Organization found in polling conducted nationally from March 7 to the 22nd that should Obama win the nomination 28 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain, while 19 percent of Obama’s supporters said they would vote for McCain if Clinton won.

The Quinnipiac survey of 2,103 likely Democratic primary voters, an unusually large sample size particularly for a statewide poll, found that Clinton is strongest in the more rural west while Obama’s strength continues to be centered around Philadelphia.

There also continue to be mirror results based on education level, considered a strong indicator of economic class. Clinton wins those without a college degree, 54 to 39 percent, while Obama wins those with at least a college degree, 57 to 39 percent. The racial divisions also persist. Obama is winning nearly nine in ten blacks while Clinton is winning nearly six in ten whites.

[Heisenberg]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106537/Gallup-Daily-Obama-51-Clinton-40.aspx

Gallup:

Obama 51%
Clinton 40%

Obama 46%
McCain 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Rasmussen:

Obama 50%
Clinton 41%

McCain 47%
Obama 43%