Jordan55
05-24-2008, 04:40 PM
GOP strategists mull McCain ‘blowout’
By DAVID PAUL KUHN | 5/23/08 5:29 PM EST Text Size:
Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that McCain could win by as many 50 electoral votes.
It sounds crazy at first. Amid dire reports about the toxic political environment for Republican candidates and the challenges facing John McCain, many top GOP strategists believe he can defeat Barack Obama — and by a margin exceeding President Bush’s Electoral College victory in 2004.
At first blush, McCain’s recent rough patch and the considerable financial disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain victory for fear of looking foolish.
But the contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain’s unique strengths and the nature of Obama’s possible vulnerabilities, have led to a cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush’s 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes.
McCain is in a remarkably strong position for how poor the political environment is right now,” said Brian Nienaber, a GOP pollster. “McCain could win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada with a high Hispanic population. It really does scramble the map of where Obama does find those electoral votes.”
Naturally, Democrats do not concede the point. But conversations with several Democratic strategists reveal that many acknowledge that the Republican scenarios are at least reasonable, though they say less likely to occur because Obama has the potential to dramatically alter the map, putting some nontraditional states in play at the same time. The bottom line, though, is that McCain’s ability to compete in some big industrial states offers a ray of hope in an otherwise dismal election cycle.
“We have to hold Michigan and Pennsylvania. McCain wins one of those states, we are in trouble. They have to hold Florida and Ohio or they are trouble,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said. “The truth about this race [is], this is the year that we shouldn’t lose, and we could lose.”
The GOP scenarios do not rely on some game-changing event but rather the possibility of Obama failing to overcome his own and his party’s weaknesses. Obama has long been thought by analysts to have a higher electoral vote ceiling as well as a lower floor than Hillary Clinton.
It is that potential Obama floor that increasingly occupies the minds of Republicans studying the map. Even the potentially dramatic rise in turnout of African-Americans may only gain Obama 1 percentage point in many swing states, according to Maslin. Yet Obama’s weaknesses may end up neutralizing some of those relatively modest gains.
Since 1968, Democrats have had a deficit with whites, particularly men. Some Republicans believe that Obama may exacerbate those Democratic challenges, especially in key rural regions like Appalachia, struggle to win back Hispanics or some women, and dash Democratic prospects during their most favorable landscape in at least three decades.
“There is a one in four shot that McCain can win an electoral majority in excess of 50 electoral votes, which by most recent standards would be a blowout,” Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio said. “Considering where the Republican brand is right now, that’s pretty phenomenal.”
I have repeatedly said, that McCain, because of his moderate stances on some issues, his attempts to cross the isle to meet the Dems at least half way on important issues. Will give the Republicans the best chance to win this election this year. The other republican canidates wouldn't have stood a chance as true conservatives, But with the Hillary/Obama battle still waging and splitting the party and with Obama, showing his inexperience everytime he speaks on foreign policy, when at a time that, foreign diplomacy strenghs are a must since they will come into play dramatically this presidential period.
A time for a change may have to wait, but at least, the alternative would be we have nominated a man of strong integerity, who has played by his own set of Principles since seeking public office.
:bow:
Complete article can be found at Politico.com
By DAVID PAUL KUHN | 5/23/08 5:29 PM EST Text Size:
Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that McCain could win by as many 50 electoral votes.
It sounds crazy at first. Amid dire reports about the toxic political environment for Republican candidates and the challenges facing John McCain, many top GOP strategists believe he can defeat Barack Obama — and by a margin exceeding President Bush’s Electoral College victory in 2004.
At first blush, McCain’s recent rough patch and the considerable financial disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain victory for fear of looking foolish.
But the contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain’s unique strengths and the nature of Obama’s possible vulnerabilities, have led to a cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush’s 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes.
McCain is in a remarkably strong position for how poor the political environment is right now,” said Brian Nienaber, a GOP pollster. “McCain could win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada with a high Hispanic population. It really does scramble the map of where Obama does find those electoral votes.”
Naturally, Democrats do not concede the point. But conversations with several Democratic strategists reveal that many acknowledge that the Republican scenarios are at least reasonable, though they say less likely to occur because Obama has the potential to dramatically alter the map, putting some nontraditional states in play at the same time. The bottom line, though, is that McCain’s ability to compete in some big industrial states offers a ray of hope in an otherwise dismal election cycle.
“We have to hold Michigan and Pennsylvania. McCain wins one of those states, we are in trouble. They have to hold Florida and Ohio or they are trouble,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said. “The truth about this race [is], this is the year that we shouldn’t lose, and we could lose.”
The GOP scenarios do not rely on some game-changing event but rather the possibility of Obama failing to overcome his own and his party’s weaknesses. Obama has long been thought by analysts to have a higher electoral vote ceiling as well as a lower floor than Hillary Clinton.
It is that potential Obama floor that increasingly occupies the minds of Republicans studying the map. Even the potentially dramatic rise in turnout of African-Americans may only gain Obama 1 percentage point in many swing states, according to Maslin. Yet Obama’s weaknesses may end up neutralizing some of those relatively modest gains.
Since 1968, Democrats have had a deficit with whites, particularly men. Some Republicans believe that Obama may exacerbate those Democratic challenges, especially in key rural regions like Appalachia, struggle to win back Hispanics or some women, and dash Democratic prospects during their most favorable landscape in at least three decades.
“There is a one in four shot that McCain can win an electoral majority in excess of 50 electoral votes, which by most recent standards would be a blowout,” Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio said. “Considering where the Republican brand is right now, that’s pretty phenomenal.”
I have repeatedly said, that McCain, because of his moderate stances on some issues, his attempts to cross the isle to meet the Dems at least half way on important issues. Will give the Republicans the best chance to win this election this year. The other republican canidates wouldn't have stood a chance as true conservatives, But with the Hillary/Obama battle still waging and splitting the party and with Obama, showing his inexperience everytime he speaks on foreign policy, when at a time that, foreign diplomacy strenghs are a must since they will come into play dramatically this presidential period.
A time for a change may have to wait, but at least, the alternative would be we have nominated a man of strong integerity, who has played by his own set of Principles since seeking public office.
:bow:
Complete article can be found at Politico.com