More from Sabato's Crystal Ball...

[silverbear]

Based on this evidence, polls currently showing a very close race between Barack Obama and John McCain should be taken with a large grain of salt. The Electoral Barometer is currently pointing very strongly in favor of the Democratic candidate.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2008061901

[canters]

Sabato loves to hear himself talk. Sucking up to the Dems is a good way to get on TV.

He needs to get a new piece....his hair looks fake.

[silverbear]

Sabato loves to hear himself talk. Sucking up to the Dems is a good way to get on TV.

He needs to get a new piece....his hair looks fake.

Nice try, but the truth is that Sabato is widely respected by people on both ends of the political spectrum... indeed, Faux News refers to him as their "favorite political analyst", and has him on with some frequency...

Beyond that, Sabato has been VERY good at calling the last two-three elections, right down to calling Jim Webb's last-minute upset of George Allen here in Virginia...

So go on and try to marginalize him, if it's what you need to do to sleep at night, but I cite him because he's very, very good at what he does...

Then again, you clearly didn't follow the link provided, because as it happens, Sabato did not write the piece I quoted... why am I unsurprised that a righty would dismiss an article without bothering to READ it?? LOL...

[irvin88]

This guy had Kerry winning in 2004.:laugh2:

[silverbear]

This guy had Kerry winning in 2004.:laugh2:

Uhhhh, no, he didn't... on November 1st, he had the election in a flat tie, with both candidates winding up with 269 electoral votes... he also went on to say that:

We don't really believe the tie, but if ever there is a year that will produce an Electoral College tie--given 10 tied polls at the end--it is 2004. We really think that if turnout hovers around 115 million to 117 million Bush has the edge, but if turnout truly skyrockets, most of those new voters will not be coming out to say, "Good job Mr. President," and Kerry will pull the upset.

Turnout did not "skyrocket", it wound up around 122 million, and Dubya won... pretty much as Sabato predicted...

And on October 26th of that year, he had Dubya with a small lead...

The electoral map has become as close as the overall election. We have given it to Bush by a tiny electoral majority, but there are so many significant toss-up states that this is an estimate, rather than reality. We want to mention that it is also very possible that the winning candidate will end up capturing the lion's share of those states, and that the Electoral College will do what it did well in 1960 when John F. Kennedy won the narrowest of popular vote majorities--112,827 votes--yet topped 300 in the Electoral College by winning many toss-up states by very slim margins.

So once again, in their lust to discredit a political pundit who expresses opinions with which they disagree, the champions of the right make up lies to about said pundit... the truth is, he had the election too close to call, in the days immediately before that election... he also predicted how each state would fall getting 49 of the 51 (counting the District) right... the only two he failed to call correctly were Florida and Wisconsin...

In an article he wrote right before the 06 midterms, Sabato said:

If it is any comfort to our GOP readers, we were deluged with complaints from Democratic writers in 2002 and 2004, when the Crystal Ball predicted overall Republican victories. In 2004, I'm proud to say the Crystal Ball's predictions were accurate in 475 of the 479 Governor, Senate and House races on the ballot (99.2%) on election night. Of course, looked at more critically, we missed one House, one Senate and two Governor contests.

That's a 99.2 per cent accuracy rate in 2004, hoss... now, tell me again how Sabato isn't good at what he does...

And when it came to the 06 midterms, he predicted:

As we take a snapshot of the electoral landscape from the perspective of twelve days out, our best guess is that Democrats are on track to net 21 to 26 seats in the House, 4 to 6 seats in the Senate, and 5 to 7 governorships. We place slightly more confidence in our ranges for the Senate and governor categories, as so many House races are fluid.

And when the smoke cleared, the Democrats gained six governorships, which is what Sabato predicted... they gained six Senate seats, which is what Sabato predicted... and they gained thirty one seats in the House, even more than Sabato predicted...

So if Sabato erred in the 06 midterms, it was in favor of the GOP... and that's two elections in a row that he called right...

But hey, go right ahead and try to convince yourself that he's a partisan Democratic shill, and not one of the most respected political analysts in the country today... just don't go distorting what he said as you do so, because I've been a fan of Larry's for a long time now, and I know just how good he is...

Your criticisms are rooted in the fact that you don't like what he has to say, but you don't have any argument you can make against what he's written... so all you have left is to try to dispute his expertise...

[Hoofbite]

Polls are just polls but Newsweek has Obama 15 points in front......

[BrAinPaiNt]

Polls are just polls but Newsweek has Obama 15 points in front......

I believe the recent Gallup pole has them dead even.

Can't trust polls this far out IMO.

[silverbear]

Polls are just polls but Newsweek has Obama 15 points in front......


So does the LA Times/Bloomberg polls, but I'm dubious... I've said for years that the only way to make even a little bit of sense out of polls is to average as many of them from a recent time frame together as you possibly can...

[Doomsday101]

No doubt in the national polls Obama is clearly the front runner in this race. In the end it will still come down to the electoral count.

[canters]

So does the LA Times/Bloomberg polls, but I'm dubious... I've said for years that the only way to make even a little bit of sense out of polls is to average as many of them from a recent time frame together as you possibly can...

You like Sabato 'cause he thinks your man will win....

It is way too early to worry about polls. If this is a rout of an election, it will becuuse BO gets exposed for his radical views...and loses 40 states. Otherwise it will probably be close. I still think BO is unelectable.

[zrinkill]

I think both have a very good chance of winning .....

I am pulling for McCain but Obama has said some things lately that make me feel better if he wins.

[arglebargle]

I think both have a very good chance of winning .....

I am pulling for McCain but Obama has said some things lately that make me feel better if he wins.


I am almost in the opposite camp. I just wish it was the McCain of 2000, instead of the suck up of 2008. But either one would be a step up in my book.....

[Bach]

I think both have a very good chance of winning .....



I think it's an impossibilty that both can win.

[zrinkill]

I think it's an impossibilty that both can win.

Thank you for correcting me.

[Bach]

Thank you for correcting me.

Anytime

*insert "thumbs up"*

[silverbear]

You like Sabato 'cause he thinks your man will win....

I like Sabato because he's good at what he does... you can't argue with his record for accuracy over these past six years, for sure...

It is way too early to worry about polls.

You didn't actually read that article, did you??

If this is a rout of an election, it will becuuse BO gets exposed for his radical views...and loses 40 states. Otherwise it will probably be close. I still think BO is unelectable.

Let's see-- Sabato says that right now, McCain is in trouble, but YOU say that "BO" is unelectable...

Gee, I wonder whose opinion is more CREDIBLE??

I'm rather unimpressed by the confident rhetoric you're woofing... I'm pretty sure you didn't anticipate what happened in the 06 midterms either, and were quite CERTAIN that the Democrats wouldn't take control of Congress...

[Doomsday101]

I like Sabato because he's good at what he does... you can't argue with his record for accuracy over these past six years, for sure...



You didn't actually read that article, did you??



Let's see-- Sabato says that right now, McCain is in trouble, but YOU say that "BO" is unelectable...

Gee, I wonder whose opinion is more CREDIBLE??

I'm rather unimpressed by the confident rhetoric you're woofing... I'm pretty sure you didn't anticipate what happened in the 06 midterms either, and were quite CERTAIN that the Democrats wouldn't take control of Congress...

But I was sure that this congress approval rating is lower than that of Bush!!!:lmao2:

[silverbear]

But I was sure that this congress approval rating is lower than that of Bush!!!:lmao2:

Sure is-- because Congress hasn't been able to get the war ended, either...

This is fair, I think...