Gallup Poll: Obama still leads

[Bonecrusher#31]

September 5, 2008

Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Now at 4 Points

Obama’s position about halfway between his recent highs and lows


USA (http://www.gallup.com/tag/USA.aspx)
Election 2008 (http://www.gallup.com/tag/Election%2b2008.aspx)
Gallup Daily (http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx)
Americas (http://www.gallup.com/tag/Americas.aspx)
Northern America (http://www.gallup.com/tag/Northern%2bAmerica.aspx)
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking (http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx) from Tuesday through Thursday finds Barack Obama with a four-percentage-point lead over John McCain in the presidential preferences of registered voters, 48% to 44%.
http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080905DailyUpdateGraph1_plmnhtf.gif
While the difference between today's result and Thursday's 49% to 42% lead for Obama is not statistically significant, some of the broader shifts seen over the past 10 days, spanning both party's national conventions, have been meaningful.
Support for Obama since just before the Democratic National Convention kicked off on Aug. 25 has ranged from 44% to 50%, while McCain's support has ranged from 41% to 46%. Whereas the race was initially tied at 45%, Obama pulled into an eight-point lead at several points over the course of his convention. It now appears the Republican National Convention may be helping McCain to recoup some of his losses, though with Obama's current four-point lead, the entire convention period to this point has still been a net plus for Obama. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here (http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-Follow-General-Election.aspx).)
While both conventions are now over, measurement of public reaction to them is not. Results, based on interviewing conducted Sept. 2-4, include just one day of interviewing conducted after Wednesday night's widely viewed acceptance speech by McCain's vice presidential running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Most interviewing Thursday night was conducted before McCain's acceptance speech, so Gallup Poll Daily tracking results will start to reflect its impact in Saturday's report. The full impact of the GOP convention on voter preferences will not be known until Monday's report, the first in which all interviews will have been conducted following the convention's conclusion.
http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080905DailyUpdateGraph2_rfgbvcd.gif

[dbair1967]

CBS Poll: McCain, Obama Tied
McCain Closes Eight-Point Gap From Poll Taken Last Weekend


(CBS) The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote.

This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

McCain has also closed the enthusiasm gap some with Obama, but it still exists. Fifty-five percent of Obama's supporters are enthusiastic about their choice, and now so are 35% of McCain's. Last weekend, just 25 percent of McCain's supporters were enthusiastic about him, compared to 67 of Obama's supporters.

This week's polling continues to show voters waiting to decide about Sarah Palin (see yesterday's poll on Palin). But in interviewing done yesterday, 83 percent of registered voters said that spouse and family of a candidate will not affect their votes.

Other factors within the race and overall opinions of the candidates, however, have remained similar from this weekend.

Thirty-eight percent say they have a favorable view of Obama, compared 34 percent unfavorable and 27 percent undecided. For McCain, it's 37 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable and 27 percent undecided.

McCain maintains his large advantage on the likelihood of being an effective commander-in-chief - 46 percent of voters say it is "very likely" McCain would be an effective commander-in-chief, compared to 24 percent who say that about Obama.

But McCain still has one big deficit to make up -- just 44 percent of voters say he understands their needs and problems, compared with 60 percent who say that about Obama.

In the poll, Obama continues to have a lead with women voters, 43 percent to 38 percent, while McCain has the edge with men, 46 percent to 41 percent. As has been standard in this campaign, voters under age 45 are backing Obama, while older voters are supporting McCain.

McCain wins the support of married voters and Obama has the backing of voters who are not married. It should be noted, though, that most married voters are older while those who are not married tend to be younger.

Independents in this poll are divided. In the poll conducted over the weekend, Obama had a six-point advantage with this group, but now the lead is three points, 39 percent to 36 percent.

The poll also shows that the majority of Clinton supporters continue to support Obama - 67 percent in this poll, up from 58 percent last weekend.

McCain has seen a similar uptick from white evangelicals since the weekend - 66 percent now, up from 57 percent.

Read The Complete Poll

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 835 adults nationwide, including 734 registered voters, interviewed by telephone September 1-3, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points; for registered voters the sampling error could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.


©MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

[dbair1967]

And of course in the biggest poll, CowboysZone has McCain with 30 votes to Obama's 9...its a landslide

:D

[zrinkill]

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 835 adults nationwide, including 734 registered voters, interviewed by telephone September 1-3, 2008.

hmmmm

[burmafrd]

Frankly I am more and more skeptical of Gallup. their sample sizes seem to be smaller and more spread out as regards time which to me says that its accuracy has to be questioned over a larger sample size in a smaller time line.

[adamc91115]

Gallup uses the same kind of 3 day tracking that Rasmussen uses... If McCain has a bounce, you won't see it's full effect until Monday when the interviews of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday after the end of the RNC, are completed.

Between the largest polling sites, Gallup uses a sample size of around 2800 people, Rasmussen uses a sample size of 3000. Both weight their polling at roughly 40% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 30% unaffiliated.

[Cajuncowboy]

I've said all along that the only polls that really matter are the internal polling done by the campaigns. If we knew what the Dems knew, or the Republicans for that matter, then we would have a truer picture of what will happen.

And judging by the dems reactions in the past week, I would say, and it's just a hypothesis on my part, but I would say that the Obama campaign sees the writing on the wall and are scared crap less.

[SuspectCorner]

hmmmm

I think it just means they were interviewed (backgrounded) in September. They must have been recently contacted again - hence their poll results for this week.

[kristie]

Gallup uses the same kind of 3 day tracking that Rasmussen uses... If McCain has a bounce, you won't see it's full effect until Monday when the interviews of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday after the end of the RNC, are completed.

Between the largest polling sites, Gallup uses a sample size of around 2800 people, Rasmussen uses a sample size of 3000. Both weight their polling at roughly 40% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 30% unaffiliated.

that's cool. i didn't know that before.

[burmafrd]

Still think after the past mistakes of 2000 and 2004 that Gallup on the presidential poll area is not all that accurate.

[Signals]

No!

Tell me it's not so...

[CowboyWay]

Starkist.........

whats the deal with the photo? I studied it, what am I supposed to see?

[Erik_H]

No!

Tell me it's not so...

Re: the sig pic photo. Nice Schooner!

[Erik_H]

I think it just means they were interviewed (backgrounded) in September. They must have been recently contacted again - hence their poll results for this week.

No, It actually means the call were made between Sept 1st and Sept 3rd. If they are contacted again at a later date, that date would have been included in the data.

We won't get the full poll results based on all of the RNC until Sunday or Monday... three full days after. That's just the way these polls work.

The "poll results for this week" mean data taken from the beginning of the week.

"This poll was conducted among a random sample of 835 adults nationwide, including 734 registered voters, interviewed by telephone September 1-3, 2008."

September 1-3 means September 1-3, not September 4-6.

[WoodysGirl]

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

Has a nice breakdown by state when you scroll over the state after you click the link. You can see how close it is in certain states. I'm sure there are other sites, but I liked the graphical breakdown

http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y164/nbr1diva/dashboard.gif

Edit: Found another map from a link on the dashboard above: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y164/nbr1diva/dashboard2.gif

[bbgun]

Part of me wants to see Obama win this thing, just to see how he reacts when things invariably go wrong, esp overseas. Also, when he finishes his term in office, does that mean we will no longer have "hope"? We will be "hopeless"? If so, when will we have "hope" again? Questions questions.

[Bizwah]

I think it's pretty inevitable. Obama will win. And if he does, I hope he's a great president.

I don't want the winner to fail. If they fail....we fail.

[sacase]

I think it's pretty inevitable. Obama will win.

Yeah Hillary thought the same thing as well.

[big dog cowboy]

More worthless:

A. Political polls in Sept.

B. Preseason NFL scores

You make the call.

[Bizwah]

Yeah Hillary thought the same thing as well.

I really hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

[Haley94]

More worthless:

A. Political polls in Sept.

B. Preseason NFL scores

You make the call.

:laugh2:

[MetalHead]

I think it's pretty inevitable. Obama will win. And if he does, I hope he's a great president.

I don't want the winner to fail. If they fail....we fail.

Keep this thing in mind:
The Clintons never lose,even when you think they have lost.
Hillary vs Palin in 2012.
Book it.