Gallup Poll: We are Tied !!

[irvin88]

PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain has gained ground and is now tied with Barack Obama among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Sept. 22-24, with each candidate getting 46% support.

[Dallas]

This election is obviously going to go down to the same states in the 2000 and 2004 elections.


Going to be a SQUEEKER whomever wins the presidency.

[Doomsday101]

This election is obviously going to go down to the same states in the 2000 and 2004 elections.


Going to be a SQUEEKER whomever wins the presidency.

I agree and this electorial poll from CNN really shows how close this will be

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

[MilesAustinforMVP]

PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain has gained ground and is now tied with Barack Obama among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Sept. 22-24, with each candidate getting 46% support.

geez that is pretty sorry you are citing one day in a tracking poll. Real clear politics (which averages all the polls) has Obama up by 3. And Obama has been making steady progress in most of the state polls. Don't get your hopes up.

[irvin88]

McCain will win all the Bush states plus Pa and Michigan.

[Dallas]

geez that is pretty sorry you are citing one day in a tracking poll. Real clear politics (which averages all the polls) has Obama up by 3. And Obama has been making steady progress in most of the state polls. Don't get your hopes up.


It sure does get your undies in a pinch though doesn't it? :D You really care about polls that much?

Most folks on our foum could give a rats patoot about the polls. Why?

Because they are all so close and most are w/in the margin of error always, for or against.

To be honest - I wish our users wouldn't even put these polls up. The randomness and areas of the polls being done skew things far to much imho.

Nobody has a handle on this election. That is plain to see.

[MilesAustinforMVP]

McCain will win all the Bush states plus Pa and Michigan.

Wow thats quite a statement according to pollster.com (http://www.pollster.com/) if the election was held today Obama would win.

[masomenos]

PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain has gained ground and is now tied with Barack Obama among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Sept. 22-24, with each candidate getting 46% support.

Someone was telling me that polls of "registered voters" are less accurate than polls of "likely voters". I think it was Trickblue or BrainPaint.

[Dallas]

McCain will win all the Bush states plus Pa and Michigan.

If McCain does take PA and MI and it also appears he is doing real well in NH, he has a great shot of winning it.

[MilesAustinforMVP]

It sure does get your undies in a pinch though doesn't it? :D You really care about polls that much?

Most folks on our foum could give a rats patoot about the polls. Why?

Because they are all so close and most are w/in the margin of error always for or against.

To be honest - I wish our users wouldn't even put these polls up. The randomness and areas of the polls being done skew things far to much imho.

Nobody has a handle on this election. That is plain to see.

Averaging the polls tend to be quite accurate if you look at the Bush/Kerry race:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

[irvin88]

geez that is pretty sorry you are citing one day in a tracking poll. Real clear politics (which averages all the polls) has Obama up by 3. And Obama has been making steady progress in most of the state polls. Don't get your hopes up.

3 points aren't enough with the "Bradley effect."

Factor in an 8 point election day swing, so right now McCain is up by about 5.;)

[trickblue]

The only poll that really matters comes out the night of November 4th...

[Dallas]

The only poll that really matters comes out the night of November 4th...


Smartypants !!! :D

[MilesAustinforMVP]

The only poll that really matters comes out the night of November 4th...
I never heard that one before...

[irvin88]

The only poll that really matters comes out the night of November 4th...

that it so true, when you will have all the Bradley voters in full swing in the midwest.

I love those "Bradley" democrats!

[Doomsday101]

The only poll that really matters comes out the night of November 4th...

More like the morning of Nov 5th. Unless we have to go through another Florida fiasco then you are looking at Dec into Jan :laugh2:

[trickblue]

I never heard that one before...

I hadn't either until I posted it a few minutes ago... :laugh2:

What I hate worse than ANYTHING about elections is exit polling...

[MilesAustinforMVP]

I hadn't either until I posted it a few minutes ago... :laugh2:

What I hate worse than ANYTHING about elections is exit polling...

Well the preliminary exit polling means dog **** because they have such a wide margin of error. the final set of exit polling is much more accurate.

[trickblue]

Well the preliminary exit polling means dog **** because they have such a wide margin of error. the final set of exit polling is much more accurate.

True... but it influences voters... especially those in the Pacific Time Zone... they see the exit polls and their candidate is behind and they just say "forget it"...

[Dallas]

True... but it influences voters... especially those in the Pacific Time Zone... they see the exit polls and their candidate is behind and they just say "forget it"...


That my friend is GINORMOUS. You are so correct. I don't know how many times I talked to friends leaving the office who were not going to vote because the candidate they were going to vote for is trailing so badly.

I think it is a disservice to our election process.

It does hurt the process.

[Doomsday101]

That my friend is GINORMOUS. You are so correct. I don't know how many times I talked to friends leaving the office who were not going to vote because the candidate they were going to vote for is trailing so badly.

I think it is a disservice to our election process.

It does hurt the process.

Think about a state like Florida who is in 2 timezone and they were calling the race in 2000 before the polls closed through out the state.

[Heisenberg]

Today's state polling:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3213/2887443045_1b056d6893_o.png

[adamc91115]

Obama must be really worrying about PA. We've been bombarded with TONS of new radio ads, something I've never heard before.

Though I don't live in PA, I get a lot of PA radio stations.

[Angus]

Today's state polling:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3213/2887443045_1b056d6893_o.png

Link?

[Heisenberg]

Link?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

He does a couple of polling updates a day and adds them all into his election simulation. It's an easy way to see all the polls that come in each day. I'll post the second state polling update at some point tonight when he posts it.

[canters]

Barry should be worried big time...with all the advantages he has, he cannot close the deal with the voters as yet...

He has:
unpopular 2 term Prez to run against
Media has anal poisoning from where their heads stay,,up his butt.
Bad economy


this is the perfect storm for Barry, and he cannot do it so far.....

[dbair1967]

PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain has gained ground and is now tied with Barack Obama among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Sept. 22-24, with each candidate getting 46% support.

wow that just cant be, BP assured me the other day that McCain was only returning to DC in a political stunt because he was starting to get drubbed in the polls

[theogt]

You know it's not a good thing for your campaign when you're excited about a tie.

[dbair1967]

Obama must be really worrying about PA. We've been bombarded with TONS of new radio ads, something I've never heard before.

Though I don't live in PA, I get a lot of PA radio stations.

yes, he is

and he probably isnt going to win that state IMO

and if he does indeed lose PA, the rout will be on. The election is basically over if Obama loses PA, because he isnt going to win FL or Oh either.

[dbair1967]

You know it's not a good thing for your campaign when you're excited about a tie.

It's not that hard really. The liberal media has been force feeding Obama on everyone for 2yrs basically. They have given the perception since day one he'd win easily. The fact that he clearly isnt is cause for glee IMO.

[adamc91115]

yes, he is

and he probably isnt going to win that state IMO

and if he does indeed lose PA, the rout will be on. The election is basically over if Obama loses PA, because he isnt going to win FL or Oh either.


Absolutely...

Pennsylvania's 21 EV's will even out the 21 that Obama gains from Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico.

[ABQCOWBOY]

Absolutely...

Pennsylvania's 21 EV's will even out the 21 that Obama gains from Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico.


Hey, don't sell us short. New Mexico just might go McCain. He's a lot more local then Obama is. We voted Republican last election.

;)

[adamc91115]

Hey, don't sell us short. New Mexico just might go McCain. He's a lot more local then Obama is. We voted Republican last election.

;)

Haha... I got ya.

I was just saying in a best case for Obama if he loses PA, he will still only even it out.

Get your people out to vote out there in NM! :D

[ABQCOWBOY]

Haha... I got ya.

I was just saying in a best case for Obama if he loses PA, he will still only even it out.

Get your people out to vote out there in NM! :D

Our problem is not that we don't vote. Our problem is that too many votes get lost on the way to the count.

No joke, it happens here.

[bootsy]

PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain has gained ground and is now tied with Barack Obama among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Sept. 22-24, with each candidate getting 46% support.
This stuff makes me laugh. Two weeks ago when McCain was up everyone was posting it on here. Last week Obama regains the lead no Gallup Poll threads. Today it is tied, here comes the Gallup Poll threads again. These polls don't mean anything well unless McCain is leading or tied.

[trickblue]

This stuff makes me laugh. Two weeks ago when McCain was up everyone was posting it on here. Last week Obama regains the lead no Gallup Poll threads. Today it is tied, here comes the Gallup Poll threads again. These polls don't mean anything well unless McCain is leading or tied.

Polls mean nothing... what's your point...

[bootsy]

Polls mean nothing... what's your point...
What?

[trickblue]

What?

What?

Your turn...

[trickblue]

What?

What?

Your turn... who's fault is it...

[NinePointOh]

3 points aren't enough with the "Bradley effect."

Factor in an 8 point election day swing, so right now McCain is up by about 5.;)

Wishful thinking? Or just complete ignorance of the Bradley effect?

Research has shown that it has only applied to Obama in states where there's an unusually small (like <5%) black population. States where the black population is roughly on par with the national average, as is the case in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, have produced results pretty much within the margin of error of what the polls were saying. States with particularly large black populations (like Georgia and South Carolina) have actually seen a reverse Bradley effect, with polls underestimating Obama by about as much as he was overestimated in the few "Bradley" states.

It more than likely has less to do with what's usually claimed -- that interviewees are afraid to share their real opinions -- and more to do with the poll methodology failing to accurately predict a demographically representative sample when there's a minority candidate involved.

[BrAinPaiNt]

Polls mean nothing... what's your point...

I know you go to fark on a regular basis so I know you have probably got a good laugh at some of the headlines.

I have gotten good laughs the last few weeks when someone submits one like...So in so is in the lead in polls now so the polls don't matter or So and So is in the lead in the polls now so the polls matter again.

[trickblue]

I know you go to fark on a regular basis so I know you have probably got a good laugh at some of the headlines.

I have gotten good laughs the last few weeks when someone submits one like...So in so is in the lead in polls now so the polls don't matter or So and So is in the lead in the polls now so the polls matter again.

Fark is a great site... and the funniest thing on there are the headlines. Some of those guys are very creative...