New CNN / TIME / ORC: Obama is killing McCain in the Swing States

[MilesAustinforMVP]

CNN / TIME / ORC
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/01/cnn-polls-major-gain-for-obama-in-battleground-states/#more-21773))
Florida 9/28-30, 770 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 51, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 1

Minnesota 9/28-30, 849 LV, 3.5%
Obama 54, McCain 43
Obama 53, McCain 41, Nader 2, Barr 1, McKinney 0

Missouri 9/28-30, 744 LV, 3.5%
Obama 49, McCain 48
Obama 47, McCain 46, Nader 2, Barr 2

Nevada 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 49, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 1, McKinney 0

Virginia 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 53, McCain 44
Obama 52, McCain 42, Nader 2, Barr 2, McKinney 0


http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cnntime_fl_mn_mo_nv_va_92830.php

[ConcordCowboy]

Well those numbers certainly are welcome news.

[Danny White]

Those are all pretty close... wouldn't say he's "killing him" in any of those, except Virginia.

And, living in Virginia, I have a hunch it's really much closer than that. Real Clear Politics has it well within the margin of error.

That said, Obama has the momentum right now and it wouldn't surprise me that he's gaining ground in swing states. That may be a permanent trend or it may be temporary... who knows.

Not that the OP cares about any of this... he's more of a "throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks" kinda guy.

[Cajuncowboy]

Killing? :rolleyes:

[Doomsday101]

Those are all pretty close... wouldn't say he's "killing him" in any of those, except Virginia.

And, living in Virginia, I have a hunch it's really much closer than that. Real Clear Politics has it well within the margin of error.

That said, Obama has the momentum right now and it wouldn't surprise me that he's gaining ground in swing states. That may be a permanent trend or it may be temporary... who knows.

Not that the OP cares about any of this... he's more of a "throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks" kinda guy.

I agree and it really should be no surprise. After the debate Obama went back to the campaign trail and McCain went back to Washington. I think we will start to see some narrowing once McCain gets back into full gear on the campaign trail

[MilesAustinforMVP]

I agree and it really should be no surprise. After the debate Obama went back to the campaign trail and McCain went back to Washington. I think we will start to see some narrowing once McCain gets back into full gear on the campaign trail

Yes he went to Washington, as in making calls from his Washington office, something he could have done on the campaign trail. It was a political stunt, everyone knows that except for you it seems.

And its not like McCain is an effective campaigner without Palin. By himself he draws the smallest crowds, so I doubt him now being in "full gear" will make much of a difference one way or the other.

[MilesAustinforMVP]

Those are all pretty close... wouldn't say he's "killing him" in any of those, except Virginia.
.

Um what are you looking at? He is up 8 in Florida and 12 in Minnesota. Those are pretty big leads for what are considered swing states.

[Doomsday101]

Yes he went to Washington, as in making calls from his Washington office, something he could have done on the campaign trail. It was a political stunt, everyone knows that except for you it seems.

And its not like McCain is an effective campaigner without Palin. By himself he draws the smallest crowds, so I doubt him now being in "full gear" will make much of a difference one way or the other.

Every liberal is playing it that way including you. McCain did what he felt he needed to do, if cost him in the end then so be it but at least he does what he thinks is right. Hey if you think Obama is a shoe in great stay at home and don't vote but you have some screws lose if you think this is not going to be close elections.

[Sasquatch]

CNN / TIME / ORC
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/01/cnn-polls-major-gain-for-obama-in-battleground-states/#more-21773))
Florida 9/28-30, 770 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 51, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 1

Minnesota 9/28-30, 849 LV, 3.5%
Obama 54, McCain 43
Obama 53, McCain 41, Nader 2, Barr 1, McKinney 0

Missouri 9/28-30, 744 LV, 3.5%
Obama 49, McCain 48
Obama 47, McCain 46, Nader 2, Barr 2

Nevada 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 49, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 1, McKinney 0

Virginia 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 53, McCain 44
Obama 52, McCain 42, Nader 2, Barr 2, McKinney 0


http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cnntime_fl_mn_mo_nv_va_92830.php

You left out the gleeful, diabolical laughter.

[Wheat]

I don't buy the polls at all anymore. Too many factors that I think pollsters aren't keeping up with.

Reminds me when W's numbers started dropping and some people believed he would rebound back into the upper 40's. That never happened.

[Sasquatch]

Every liberal is playing it that way including you. McCain did what he felt he needed to do, if cost him in the end then so be it but at least he does what he thinks is right. Hey if you think Obama is a shoe in great stay at home and don't vote but you have some screws lose if you think this is not going to be close elections.

So it's okay to screw up colossally so long as you mean well?

I personally think it was a political stunt that misfired horribly, just like the selection of Sarah Palin.

[MilesAustinforMVP]

Every liberal is playing it that way including you. McCain did what he felt he needed to do, if cost him in the end then so be it but at least he does what he thinks is right. Hey if you think Obama is a shoe in great stay at home and don't vote but you have some screws lose if you think this is not going to be close elections.

HA! That is the biggest load of B.S. if I have ever seen one.

Then why did he not attend the debate like he said he was going to do? I mean if he thought it was the right thing to do why did he flip flop? Because it was a political stunt. Don't be so naive.

[MilesAustinforMVP]

You left out the gleeful, diabolical laughter.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Happy now?

[MilesAustinforMVP]

I don't buy the polls at all anymore. Too many factors that I think pollsters aren't keeping up with.

Reminds me when W's numbers started dropping and some people believed he would rebound back into the upper 40's. That never happened.

You mean these numbers (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html)? Right...

These polls are scientifically done and have proven, despite what many laymen think, to be pretty accurate.

[Wheat]

You mean these numbers (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html)? Right...

These polls are scientifically done and have proven, despite what many laymen think, to be pretty accurate.


http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3270/2903207462_6e97cfeeca_o.jpg

[Sasquatch]

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Happy now?

Tickled pink, thank you.

:D

[BrAinPaiNt]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3270/2903207462_6e97cfeeca_o.jpg

:laugh2: :laugh2:

TRUTHINESS

[ConcordCowboy]

I agree and it really should be no surprise. After the debate Obama went back to the campaign trail and McCain went back to Washington. I think we will start to see some narrowing once McCain gets back into full gear on the campaign trail


And I got to tell you I'm glad he did.

Because now even more blame is coming down on him for not closing the deal and you can deny that till you're blue in the face.

:laugh2:

[Wheat]

:laugh2: :laugh2:

TRUTHINESS

I am the Lizard King!

[ABQCOWBOY]

I am the Lizard King!


Wheat! How are you?

[Wheat]

Wheat! How are you?

I'm good.

I came by this week to PM a few guys to say I still believe you guys are the team to beat. Then BP suggested I check out ye ole Political Zone.

How's it going?

[ConcordCowboy]

You mean these numbers (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html)? Right...

These polls are scientifically done and have proven, despite what many laymen think, to be pretty accurate.

:D


Hopefully that's a sign that Obama will win just like Bush.

[burmafrd]

I recall that Kerry was supposed to be in like Flynn the night before the election.......

[ChldsPlay]

Missouri 9/28-30, 744 LV, 3.5%
Obama 49, McCain 48
Obama 47, McCain 46, Nader 2, Barr 2


Well, I can guarantee you that's a bunch of crap right there. Not even close to accurate.

[Dallas]

You people are insane to believe any poll right now.

Lessons learned? Doubtful w/ all the trumpting this author of the thread is trying to spin.

Whatever makes them sleep better I guess.:rolleyes:

[jimnabby]

I recall that Kerry was supposed to be in like Flynn the night before the election.......

The election did come down to Ohio in the end. The national polls, however, were pretty dead on in predicting the national popular vote (see this (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html)). It was much more interesting at the state level, as it was in 2000. However, McCain is further behind now than Kerry was at this point four years ago.

[Danny White]

Um what are you looking at? He is up 8 in Florida and 12 in Minnesota. Those are pretty big leads for what are considered swing states.

Florida's still a toss up according to the RCP average.

I don't really consider Minnesota a swing state... it's a state that went for both Kerry and Gore, and therefore is a must-win for Obama. Obama has to find a way to win some "Bush states" and Minnesota isn't one of them.

[BrAinPaiNt]

You people are insane to believe any poll right now.

Lessons learned? Doubtful w/ all the trumpting this author of the thread is trying to spin.

Whatever makes them sleep better I guess.:rolleyes:

I agree...the polls mean nothing at this point no matter who goes ahead or falls behind.

[Heisenberg]

You mean these numbers (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html)? Right...

These polls are scientifically done and have proven, despite what many laymen think, to be pretty accurate.

I'm curious about this chart and I'm not even sure you know, but there seems to be a spot where Bush drops a lot and Kerry gains a lot. Was that a debate or something else?

[Heisenberg]

Minnesota isn't a swing state anymore. It hasn't been for quite a few rounds of polls now.

The real news here is that Obama only has to win Kerry states + CO + NM and he wins. If he starts picking of these states, he's looking at a landslide.

[Beast_from_East]

You people are insane to believe any poll right now.

Lessons learned? Doubtful w/ all the trumpting this author of the thread is trying to spin.

Whatever makes them sleep better I guess.:rolleyes:

I just heard them say on one of the networks that the only presidential candidate to come back from as far down as McCain is right now with 30 days left (they were talking about the national polls, which are like 6-8% for Obama) was Ronald Reagan in 1980.

He came back and beat Jimmy Carter and the key was their debate where Reagan mopped the floor with Carter.

Considering only 1 presidential candidate in history has come back from being in McCain's position, he better hope lightening strikes twice.

I am not willing to declare the race 100% over, so you Obama guys dont pop the cork just yet. However, you McCain guys should start worrying.

[SuspectCorner]

Poll respondents invest zero in a spur of the moment response - and many "swing voters" have a tendency to tighten up once they're in the booth.

I'm kinda wary of poll results.

[ABQCOWBOY]

I'm good.

I came by this week to PM a few guys to say I still believe you guys are the team to beat. Then BP suggested I check out ye ole Political Zone.

How's it going?


I'm good. Trying to stay one step ahead of the linch mob. You know, same old, same old.....

:D

[NinePointOh]

I agree and it really should be no surprise. After the debate Obama went back to the campaign trail and McCain went back to Washington. I think we will start to see some narrowing once McCain gets back into full gear on the campaign trail

That might be a valid point, except for the fact that after McCain "suspended" his campaign, his ads were still running, his offices were still operating at full capacity, he was still giving campaign speeches in the field, and his surrogates were still appearing on TV shows to attack his opponents.

[Doomsday101]

That might be a valid point, except for the fact that after McCain "suspended" his campaign, his ads were still running, his offices were still operating at full capacity, he was still giving campaign speeches in the field, and his surrogates were still appearing on TV shows to attack his opponents.

McCain was not out on the road giving stump speeches after the debate Obama was. I don't blame Obama each man has to do what they feel is the right thing to do. Did McCain have commercials? Yes and did others campaigning for him go out? Yes, did McCain no he did not.

[NinePointOh]

McCain was not out on the road giving stump speeches after the debate Obama was. I don't blame Obama each man has to do what they feel is the right thing to do. Did McCain have commercials? Yes and did others campaigning for him go out? Yes, did McCain no he did not.

You're wrong.

McCain "suspended" his campaign (http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/24/mccain-suspends-campaign-to-help-with-bailout/) on September 24th so he could "go to Washington and help solve the financial crisis."

The very next day, on September 25th, he taped an interview (http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4476839n) with Katie Couric.

He also gave a version of his stump speech (http://redgreenandblue.org/2008/09/25/mccain-suspends-campaign-and-then-gives-version-of-stump-speech/) in New York, teleprompters and all.

Meanwhile, as you agree, his ads were still running, his offices were still operating at full capacity, and his surrogates were still out campaigning for him as usual. To assert that his lagging poll numbers are merely the result of his not campaigning is a bit disingenuous, given the fact that there was really little to no actual reduction in his campaign activity.