Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (includes Debate)

[Beast_from_East]

Just an FYI for you Obama and McCain guys.

Obama.....50

McCain.....42


http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

[Danny White]

I'm finding it harder to picture scenarios under which McCain can win this thing.

The only thing that I can imagine is if the Bradlee effect is real, but my hunch is that it's overstated at least for this election.

[irvin88]

I'm finding it harder to picture scenarios under which McCain can win this thing.

The only thing that I can imagine is if the Bradlee effect is real, but my hunch is that it's overstated at least for this election.

It is very real.;)

[irvin88]

Just an FYI for you Obama and McCain guys.

Obama.....50

McCain.....42


http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

You won't see the effect from the debate until Tuesday.

My hunch is Obama will be up 4.

[adamc91115]

You won't see the effect from the debate until Tuesday.

My hunch is Obama will be up 4.

We're seeing the first day after the debate. While its not the full effect, it is partial.

[irvin88]

We're seeing the first day after the debate. While its not the full effect, it is partial.

that is correct. but you really have to wait until Tuesday to get a full picture.

[adamc91115]

that is correct. but you really have to wait until Tuesday to get a full picture.

Agreed. I'm just afraid it might not make much of a difference.

If there is a difference, I see it coming from people who were already leaning GOP but were concerned about Palin.

[irvin88]

Agreed. I'm just afraid it might not make much of a difference.

If there is a difference, I see it coming from people who were already leaning GOP but were concerned about Palin.

It will be about 48-44.

[adamc91115]

It will be about 48-44.

That will be the thing to watch if it does change... Obama is polling at about 50% right now. It will be interesting to see if Obama drops from there and McCain goes up, or if McCain just goes up. That will show who was influenced.

[masomenos]

It is very real.;)

Studies have shown that it's not a major effect anymore.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html

http://people.iq.harvard.edu/%7Edhopkins/wilder13.pdf

[irvin88]

Studies have shown that it's not a major effect anymore.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html

http://people.iq.harvard.edu/%7Edhopkins/wilder13.pdf

You are kidding yourself if you think it won't be a major factor.

You have look at states like PA, Ohio and New Hampshire.

Remember this was the DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, now add in independants. At least a 6-7 point shift in those states.

[Heisenberg]

You are kidding yourself if you think it won't be a major factor.

It won't. Since the Bradley election, scenarios matching that exact one have happened and the effect wasn't there. Polling matched what the actual vote was.

[adamc91115]

And it was also posted yesterday about how Obama seems to lose a good 3 points in the actual vote, shown in the primaries.

[masomenos]

And it was also posted yesterday about how Obama seems to lose a good 3 points in the actual vote, shown in the primaries.

Actually, on average, Obama did better than polling suggested he would.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3248/2753226020_77840e5146_o.png

[Heisenberg]

And it was also posted yesterday about how Obama seems to lose a good 3 points in the actual vote, shown in the primaries.

Actually, the opposite is true. He did better than polling in the primaries by about 3 points.

Edit - Looks like there's a chart posted proving that.

[masomenos]

Actually, the opposite is true. He did better than polling in the primaries by about 3 points.

Edit - Looks like there's a chart posted proving that.

Consider your thunder stolen. ;)

[Heisenberg]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3284/2913553262_674aae79cd_o.png

This gives a good idea of the kind of bounce Obama is getting in Pennsylvania.

[irvin88]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3284/2913553262_674aae79cd_o.png

This gives a good idea of the kind of bounce Obama is getting in Pennsylvania.

so right now it is tied in PA. I'll take my chances.

[adamc91115]

Ok then, so what the hell article was I reading? lmao.

But anyway, looking at that, it raises another point. Those polls were WAY off on so many states... Was that just because they were primaries? I'm asking because I really didn't pay too much attention to the primaries, specifically the Democratic primary.

[Heisenberg]

Ok then, so what the hell article was I reading? lmao.

But anyway, looking at that, it raises another point. Those polls were WAY off on so many states... Was that just because they were primaries? I'm asking because I really didn't pay too much attention to the primaries, specifically the Democratic primary.

There are some bad pollsters. They don't help the averages. The website http://www.fivethirtyeight.com weights the polls depending on their proven accuracy in previous races. I believe they also keep a running list of most accurate pollsters that you can look at.

[adamc91115]

There are some bad pollsters. They don't help the averages. The website http://www.fivethirtyeight.com weights the polls depending on their proven accuracy in previous races. I believe they also keep a running list of most accurate pollsters that you can look at.

I was looking at realclearpolitics.com on those primaries and even Rassmussen was off on most of them. And I consider Rassmussen to be one of the most reliable of all polsters along with Gallup.

The 5-15 point swings just surprised me.

[Beast_from_East]

so right now it is tied in PA. I'll take my chances.


http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3284/2913553262_674aae79cd_o.png

Maybe I am not reading the chart correctly, but it looks like for 10/1 Obama is up 12%, not tied.

To me it looks like Obama is sitting pretty good in PA, looks like he is going to win it up 12% currently.

[Heisenberg]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3284/2913553262_674aae79cd_o.png

Maybe I am not reading the chart correctly, but it looks like for 10/1 Obama is up 12%, not tied.

To me it looks like Obama is sitting pretty good in PA, looks like he takes it.

He's implying that the "Bradley Effect" is worth 12 points all of the sudden.

[masomenos]

He's implying that the "Bradley Effect" is worth 12 points all of the sudden.

Obama would win about 7 states if the "Bradley Effect" was worth 12 points. I swear the BE is worth more and more every time I hear about it.

[Beast_from_East]

He's implying that the "Bradley Effect" is worth 12 points all of the sudden.

Based on what scientific evidence?

If that is the new talking point for McCain's guys, that people are saying they are going to vote for Obama and then actually dont because he is black, so it doesnt matter if McCain is trailing badly in the polls.......WOW.

Maybe I can see 2-3% shave in the Appalacha states, but 12% in PA?

Yea, right.

[adamc91115]

I'm a McCain/Palin supporter, and I'm saying right now... There will be no "Bradley effect". When people are polled they just say who they are supporting, not why (Even if they are asked why, they can just lie if they're worried about it). There is no reason to lie about who you're supporting... The polling is not being conducted in person.

[ZeroClub]

During the primaries, evidence for the Bradley Effect was inconsistent.

[masomenos]

During the primaries, evidence for the Bradley Effect was inconsistent.

Right, there were even some suggestions of a "reverse" Bradley Effect in states where African-Americans made up more than 10% of the population.

[Beast_from_East]

I'm a McCain/Palin supporter, and I'm saying right now... There will be no "Bradley effect". When people are polled they just say who they are supporting, not why (Even if they are asked why, they can just lie if they're worried about it). There is no reason to lie about who you're supporting... The polling is not being conducted in person.

If this "Bradley Effect" is going to be such a big deal in the general, then why did Obama usually OVER-PERFORM the polls in the primaries??? (I think a poster even had a graph earlier in this thread to show it)

Not directed at you adamc.

[irvin88]

If this "Bradley Effect" is going to be such a big deal in the general, then why did Obama usually OVER-PERFORM the polls in the primaries??? (I think a poster even had a graph earlier in this thread to show it)

Not directed at you adamc.

PLEASE look at the stats in New Hampshire, PA and Ohio during the dem primary.

He is going to get hammered in those states with the effect. If you think Obama is going to win PA by 8 points you are dead wrong.

[Heisenberg]

PLEASE look at the stats in New Hampshire, PA and Ohio during the dem primary.

He is going to get hammered in those states with the effect. If you think Obama is going to win PA by 8 points you are dead wrong.

In that case, Obama, by that chart, has quite a few states he's going to win easily and some that he's behind in that he'll also win.

Seriously, if you really believe that there are that many racists in this country, then you have a much different view of our country than I do.

I'll be more than happy to come back and admit I'm wrong on election night, actually happy wouldn't be the word, but I'm absolutely positive I won't be wrong. ;)

[ZeroClub]

Well, Bradley Effect or not, we have entered a new phase of the campaign.

Despite his earlier claims, McCain is willing to do whatever it takes to win. McCain's handlers are about to go darkly negative.

Today's polls matter less than America's response to McCain's political scorched earth tactics.

[irvin88]

Well, Bradley Effect or not, we have entered a new phase of the campaign.

Despite his earlier claims, McCain is willing to do whatever it takes to win. McCain's handlers are about to go darkly negative.

Today's polls matter less than America's response to McCain's political scorched earth tactics.

good for McCain, letting people know the trash they are pulling the lever for.

[Beast_from_East]

PLEASE look at the stats in New Hampshire, PA and Ohio during the dem primary.

He is going to get hammered in those states with the effect. If you think Obama is going to win PA by 8 points you are dead wrong.

Maybe so, but if you McCain guys think being down 12% in PA means a tie (as one poster stated previously in this thread) yall are crazy.

[Beast_from_East]

good for McCain, letting people know the trash they are pulling the lever for.

This is going to blow up in McCain's face, mark it down.

Usually going to "Defcon 5" and throwing the kitchen sink at the guy is a last ditch effort before the bottom falls out.

I will say it for the last time, IT IS THE ECONOMY THAT PEOPLE CARE ABOUT!!!

[ChldsPlay]

I will say it for the last time, IT IS THE ECONOMY THAT PEOPLE CARE ABOUT!!!

Sadly, that is biggest reason NOT to vote for Obama, but for some reason our country has gotten so ignorant that most of them actually believe he would be better able to handle it. He is the worst thing our economy could get, and it's looking more and more likely even more serious problems will be coming.