Zogby has race within 3 points/now 12pt difference [Archive] - Dallas Cowboys Forum

Maikeru-sama

10-19-2008, 07:47 PM

I agree with you there.

I'll bet Ohio is going to be a real mess.

The FBI needs to camp out in Ohio and throw some folks in jail. What happened up there was fraud, plain and simple.

I agree wholeheartedly... and no matter who wins, the other side will claim "fraud" and "disenfranchised"...

Yep, things are going to get real ugly on this board. Im thinking about pulling a Silverbear and banishing myself during the month of November, but I doubt I will have the fortitude to carry through cuz its too dang fun :D .

I don't think there will be mass riots and things like that. I do think there will be protests and maybe isolated pockets of violence.

However, if this thing goes the way of the Gore/Bush Election, I could see the National Guard being brought into some areas.

Right now is a perfect storm of Race, Slipping Economy and politics.

adamc91115

10-19-2008, 07:47 PM

Cajuncowboy

10-19-2008, 07:50 PM

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Has charts of who's leading and such.

Obama's lead has shrunk quickly in the last week. Right now its on the fastest downturn since right before McCain led after the RNC.

This race won't be decided until sometime on the morning of Nov. 5. I don't even believe the polls on Nov. 3 will be accurate.

Notice that when it's "Likely Voters" His lead starts to shrink. It will more and more as we go. I honestly don't think the majority of American's will want this guy and his socialist views as a President.

Beast_from_East

10-19-2008, 08:32 PM

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1597

Obama's lead shrinks to 2.7 points and shrinking.

The problem with this is that it is just a barometer for the popular vote, doesnt really mean much.

If you want to know who is going to be President, look at the battleground state polls which are very favorable to Obama right now.

Obama may not win the popular vote (especially if the lead is down to 3%), but in terms of the Electorial College, this race is not even close. McCain is not contesting any blue states right now and Kerry lost by 1 state.

Thus, Obama really only has to win 1 red state to win the election. It could be Ohio, Missouri, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, ect.

JUST TURN ONE RED STATE BLUE AND OBAMA WINS.

adamc91115

10-19-2008, 08:57 PM

The problem with this is that it is just a barometer for the popular vote, doesnt really mean much.

If you want to know who is going to be President, look at the battleground state polls which are very favorable to Obama right now.

Obama may not win the popular vote (especially if the lead is down to 3%), but in terms of the Electorial College, this race is not even close. McCain is not contesting any blue states right now and Kerry lost by 1 state.

Thus, Obama really only has to win 1 red state to win the election. It could be Ohio, Missouri, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, ect.

JUST TURN ONE RED STATE BLUE AND OBAMA WINS.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2008/electoral_count.html

If you look at the national average on that page you will see how the state polls take about a week to catch up to the national average.

masomenos

10-19-2008, 09:32 PM

The election will, likely, come down to three states: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Whoever wins two of those states will probably win the election. Obama would still have a chance if he lost two of those, but it would be an uphill battle.

theebs

10-19-2008, 09:45 PM

but but but

Zogby is based in Utica, NY. With all the evil liberals and communists, shouldnt his polls be taken with a grain of salt or is it okay when it helps out your personal opinion.

trickblue

10-19-2008, 09:48 PM

but but but

Zogby is based in Utica, NY. With all the evil liberals and communists, shouldnt his polls be taken with a grain of salt or is it okay when it helps out your personal opinion.

I've never seen that argument here...

Zogby is greatly respected around these parts...

theebs

10-19-2008, 09:55 PM

I've never seen that argument here...

Zogby is greatly respected around these parts...

he is a good guy so is his family.

I made many fruit baskets for him at the holidays!

adamc91115

10-19-2008, 09:56 PM

bootsy

10-19-2008, 09:57 PM

I love how the Gallup Poll was the poll of choice on this board when McCain was either leading or very close. Since that Poll shows Obama with a 10% lead, Zogby has taken it's place as the poll of choice. These polls don't mean anything. The electoral college is where it has always been at. If Obama wins a couple of these swing states it's not going to matter.

Heisenberg

10-19-2008, 10:34 PM

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3069/2956207874_42052a2a3f_o.png

In case you wanted to know what other polls were saying.

Heisenberg

10-20-2008, 12:26 AM

New Zogby poll:

Obama 49.8%
McCain 44.4%

"Obama had a monster day by outpolling McCain by 10 points. In addition to strong support among Democrats, Hispanics, African Americans, and young voters, he has a huge lead among those who have already voted and those who have registered to vote just in the last six months. While Jewish voters are a small sub sample, it looks like Obama may very well be consolidating his support. He also leads among Catholics and moderates."

This is why I prefer Rasmussen. It doesn't go up and down like a rollercoaster every single day.

masomenos

10-20-2008, 12:39 AM

New Zogby poll:

Obama 49.8%
McCain 44.4%

This is why I prefer Rasmussen. It doesn't go up and down like a rollercoaster every single day.

Well that seemed like a little bit of wishful thinking by Cajun...

Obama's lead shrinks to 2.7 points and shrinking.

Heisenberg

10-20-2008, 12:45 AM

Well that seemed like a little bit of wishful thinking by Cajun...

If you actually watch the Zogby poll, it literally bounces back and forth every single night. There's no rhyme or reason to it.

It's one thing to have something happen that causes the dynamics of the race to change, but it's another to be up and down like a rollercoaster and claim each night that something has changed.

ninja

10-20-2008, 11:37 AM

I don't see how McCain has a chance. Obama would have to be a total idiot to lose. I'm sure the newspaper headlines have already been written. I don't see a grinning McCain holding a newspaper proclaiming "Dewey defeats Truman" though.

MilesAustinforMVP

10-20-2008, 02:00 PM

Zogby is a joke. He is one of the most least respected Pollsters out there.

Doomsday101

10-20-2008, 02:36 PM

Zogby is a joke. He is one of the most least respected Pollsters out there.

I guess the only respected one is the one that you agree with. Thus far Gallup and Zogby are showing a narrowing of the margin but they are wrong and only the ones with Obama leading big are real? OK :rolleyes:

NinePointOh

10-20-2008, 02:41 PM

I guess the only respected one is the one that you agree with. Thus far Gallup and Zogby are showing a narrowing of the margin but they are wrong and only the ones with Obama leading big are real? OK :rolleyes:

Wrong. Look again.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/fkhhh3hexuul-ls9k24kza.gif

Rogah

10-20-2008, 03:09 PM

The problem with this is that it is just a barometer for the popular vote, doesnt really mean much.

If you want to know who is going to be President, look at the battleground state polls which are very favorable to Obama right now.I agree with the basis of your remark here. There is a great non-partisan website keeping track of this, fivethirtyeight.com, which I have been following regularly. It is looking at the race purely from the standpoint of electoral votes and they currently calculate a 93% chance Obama wins. They give all sorts of interesting statistics, such as calculating a 4.3% chance McCain wins the popular vote but loses the election. If you like numbers, it is a great website to look at.
Thus, Obama really only has to win 1 red state to win the election. It could be Ohio, Missouri, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, ect.

JUST TURN ONE RED STATE BLUE AND OBAMA WINS.I would like to respectfully point out that this is not entirely true. You can say Kerry lost "by one state" as long as we clarify that the one state had at least 16 electoral votes, but only 3 of Bush's 31 states qualify. You can take away any one of the red states except Texas, Ohio or Florida, and Bush would have still won the election.

So the "one state" strategy certainly works if Obama takes Ohio or Florida (plus all of the 2004 blue states). But it wouldn't work if he only took Missouri, New Mexico or Virginia for example.

Speaking purely from someone who enjoys statistics, I think Obama has a very solid lead in the electoral college.

Doomsday101

10-20-2008, 03:36 PM

Wrong. Look again.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/fkhhh3hexuul-ls9k24kza.gif

Gallup has 3 different polls and Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Traditional)
shows Obama 50 to McCain 45. So I guess it depends on which one you like

Heisenberg

10-20-2008, 03:40 PM

Gallup has 3 different polls and Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Traditional)
shows Obama 50 to McCain 45. So I guess it depends on which one you like

True. There's also the expanded which is showing Obama 52% to McCain's 43%.

I think they're just throwing crap against the wall to see what sticks. :D It's hard to be wrong when you have the entire spectrum of results covered in various polls.

Doomsday101

10-20-2008, 03:43 PM

True. There's also the expanded which is showing Obama 52% to McCain's 43%.

I think they're just throwing crap against the wall to see what sticks. :D It's hard to be wrong when you have the entire spectrum of results covered in various polls.

As I have said many times I don't put much stock into polls, I don't know how much clearer I can be on that. I trust results and we will get the results Nov 4th or 5th. I can ask someone who will you vote for and they can say Obama all day long but if they don't cast the vote then their words mean nothing. It is about voting not intentions.

jimnabby

10-20-2008, 03:53 PM

Gallup has 3 different polls and Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Traditional)
shows Obama 50 to McCain 45. So I guess it depends on which one you like

That's the one that got to within 49-47 the other day and was touted around here as a sign that the race was tightening. Yesterday it was Zogby, where the margin doubled today.

If you ignore the bouncing, Obama's up 5 points, give or take a point. In the state-by-state polls, he's doing better than that in states representing well over 270 electoral votes.

masomenos

10-20-2008, 03:54 PM

Gallup has 3 different polls and Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Traditional)
shows Obama 50 to McCain 45. So I guess it depends on which one you like

That's true but none of those three polls show a "narrowing trend". In fact, in the "registered" poll Obama has his largest lead in October. In the "expanded traditional" poll Obama is tied for his largest lead in October. In the "traditional" poll he has his second largest October lead and is back to where the polling for Oct. began.

The most accurate polls from 2004, Pew and Tipp have Obama at a 7 point and a 5.3 point lead, respectively. Those numbers are taken from Oct. 20th for Tipp. and Oct 15th for Pew.

Heisenberg

10-20-2008, 03:58 PM

Doomsday101

10-20-2008, 04:19 PM

That's the one that got to within 49-47 the other day and was touted around here as a sign that the race was tightening. Yesterday it was Zogby, where the margin doubled today.

If you ignore the bouncing, Obama's up 5 points, give or take a point. In the state-by-state polls, he's doing better than that in states representing well over 270 electoral votes.

One last time. Polls do not mean jack what they count are not votes they are someone’s intentions. By most media accounts what they are seeing is a narrowing of the polls. CNN themselves just posted the following Poll shows presidential race may be tightening. Believe them or not that is your choice for me I watched the last 2 election where the polls said one thing and the results were different. If we want to play which ones are good polls or reliable poll I think you will find that the one that sees it your way will be the one you think is reliable. Myself I don’t think any are that reliable

Heisenberg

10-20-2008, 04:27 PM

One last time. Polls do not mean jack what they count are not votes they are someone’s intentions. By most media accounts what they are seeing is a narrowing of the polls. CNN themselves just posted the following Poll shows presidential race may be tightening. Believe them or not that is your choice for me I watched the last 2 election where the polls said one thing and the results were different. If we want to play which ones are good polls or reliable poll I think you will find that the one that sees it your way will be the one you think is reliable. Myself I don’t think any are that reliable

Of course it will tighten. Hell, in my prediction thread, I'm predicting a 3 point Obama win. That would require tightening to get there.

Obama gave an interview on the Today show and said the same thing. The vast majority of the time, races get closer as you get near election day.

Doomsday101

10-20-2008, 04:43 PM

Of course it will tighten. Hell, in my prediction thread, I'm predicting a 3 point Obama win. That would require tightening to get there.

Obama gave an interview on the Today show and said the same thing. The vast majority of the time, races get closer as you get near election day.

I agree but as I said intentions are not counted only ballots. In the end it all comes down to who goes to the polls and cast a vote. Hopefully only legal votes (that goes for both sides)

Sasquatch

10-20-2008, 04:56 PM

I agree wholeheartedly... and no matter who wins, the other side will claim "fraud" and "disenfranchised"...

We need to have international monitors to ensure that the election is fair and the results legitimate.

NinePointOh

10-20-2008, 04:56 PM

One last time. Polls do not mean jack what they count are not votes they are someone’s intentions.

Of course polls mean something. The problem is that most people, particularly those with no formal background in statistics, completely misunderstand what they mean. There's a reason that tracking polls, even in 2000 and 2004, are almost always accurate within the margin of error.

By most media accounts what they are seeing is a narrowing of the polls.Not anymore.

CNN themselves just posted the following Poll shows presidential race may be tightening.That was using the numbers from a few days ago, when the race was tightening. In the last 2-3 days, it's widened again. That won't show up until CNN's next poll of polls.

Believe them or not that is your choice for me I watched the last 2 election where the polls said one thing and the results were different.No, they didn't. The overall polling trends never showed either Gore or Kerry ahead of Bush at any point within a month of the election. And they ended up being accurate within the margin of error in both elections.

Doomsday101

10-20-2008, 05:01 PM

Of course polls mean something. The problem is that most people, particularly those with no formal background in statistics, completely misunderstand what they mean. There's a reason that tracking polls, even in 2000 and 2004, are almost always accurate within the margin of error.

Not anymore.

That was using the numbers from a few days ago, when the race was tightening. In the last 2-3 days, it's widened again. That won't show up until CNN's next poll of polls.

No, they didn't. The overall polling trends never showed either Gore or Kerry ahead of Bush at any point within a month of the election. And they ended up being accurate within the margin of error in both elections.

Believe what you will and sorry to disappoint I do understand polls I also know they don't mean jack you don't count poll numbers do you? I don't think so and who leads in the poll does not determine who wins the race only thing that does that is the acutally vote. Intentions of saying to a pollster who you will vote for means nothing if you don't vote and according to exit polls Kerry was leading Bush and they turned out to be wrong. So don't give me that crud about not understanding I understand a hell of a lot more than you think.

Rogah

10-20-2008, 05:09 PM

Of course polls mean something. The problem is that most people, particularly those with no formal background in statistics, completely misunderstand what they mean. There's a reason that tracking polls, even in 2000 and 2004, are almost always accurate within the margin of error.I agree with this - a lot of people just don't seem to understand what "margin of error" means. Fortunately it seems to me that most people in this forum understand the statistics behind polling... we just see different people quoting (and believing) different polls :D

However, I do think there are legitimate reasons for democrats to keep a wary eye on the so called "Bradley Effect." I just can't get the New Hampshire primary out of my mind, where Obama had a solid lead in the polls, but ended up losing.

EDIT: Here is what I am talking about... this is from Real Clear Politcs. Their polling average ended up being about 11 points off, which is a statistically significant number.

http://img160.imageshack.us/img160/9240/pollro0.jpg

NinePointOh

10-20-2008, 05:22 PM

Believe what you will and sorry to disappoint I do understand polls I also know they don't mean jack you don't count poll numbers do you? I don't think so and who leads in the poll does not determine who wins the race only thing that does that is the acutally vote. Intentions of saying to a pollster who you will vote for means nothing if you don't vote and according to exit polls Kerry was leading Bush and they turned out to be wrong. So don't give me that crud about not understanding I understand a hell of a lot more than you think.

Exit polls are very, very, different from tracking polls in both methodology and accuracy. The tracking polls were accurate for both Gore and Kerry.

However, I do think there are legitimate reasons for democrats to keep a wary eye on the so called "Bradley Effect." I just can't get the New Hampshire primary out of my mind, where Obama had a solid lead in the polls, but ended up losing.

This has been addressed at length:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html

ScipioCowboy

10-20-2008, 05:25 PM

We need to have international monitors to ensure that the election is fair and the results legitimate.

International monitors? Will they be trading sex for the ability to register multiple times?
:laugh2:

Beast_from_East

10-20-2008, 05:33 PM

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2008/electoral_count.html

If you look at the national average on that page you will see how the state polls take about a week to catch up to the national average.

Even if that is so, it doesnt change the fact that McCain is not contesting a single blue state.

When both McCain and Obama are stumping in fire-engine red states 2 weeks out, that tells you right there who significantly ahead in electorial votes.

NinePointOh

10-20-2008, 08:41 PM

EDIT: Here is what I am talking about... this is from Real Clear Politcs. Their polling average ended up being about 11 points off, which is a statistically significant number.

New Hampshire has 4 EVs. How did the rest of the results compare to the polls in the rest of the states?

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3248/2753226020_77840e5146_o.png

Rogah

10-20-2008, 09:41 PM

This has been addressed at length:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html
Thanks for the the link :D I surf randomly over fivethirtyeight.com, but had never seen that particular page... very interesting data... my belief in the Bradley effect was always lukewarm at best, but your info here pretty much does that in...

Heisenberg

10-21-2008, 12:53 AM

Thanks for the the link :D I surf randomly over fivethirtyeight.com, but had never seen that particular page... very interesting data... my belief in the Bradley effect was always lukewarm at best, but your info here pretty much does that in...

There was even an article on RCP from the pollster of the opponent of Bradley in the election that Bradley lost. He says their internal polling had them with the momentum and in the process of passing Bradley up as election day neared.

It was bad polling which has led to this "Bradley Effect".

Heisenberg

10-21-2008, 12:58 AM

I'll just make this the Zogby thread. New poll tonight:

Obama 50.3%
McCain 42.4%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1600

dbair1967

10-21-2008, 05:24 AM

I agree wholeheartedly... and no matter who wins, the other side will claim "fraud" and "disenfranchised"...

I disagree a little on this.

If Obama wins it'll be fraud, and there is already plenty of evidence out there to support this.

If McCain wins its only because of racism, and we've already been told my numerous democrats this is the case.

Heisenberg

10-21-2008, 05:26 AM

I disagree a little on this.

If Obama wins it'll be fraud, and there is already plenty of evidence out there to support this.

If McCain wins its only because of racism, and we've already been told my numerous democrats this is the case.

I like you. You're silly. :D

dbair1967

10-21-2008, 05:53 AM

I like you. You're silly. :D

just saying, we'll hear alot about it if he does win.

and there's just too much smoke for there not be a fire somewhere

NinePointOh

10-21-2008, 06:03 AM

just saying, we'll hear alot about it if he does win.

and there's just too much smoke for there not be a fire somewhere

Even the most comprehensive fraud techniques that have been speculated o alleged can only make a difference of a tiny fraction of one percent. Unless this election is razor thin like the last two, it'll be pretty difficult to argue that the fraud issues -- which have existed in every previous election in recent memory, going both ways -- had any impact on the outcome.

Heisenberg

10-21-2008, 06:07 AM

just saying, we'll hear alot about it if he does win.

and there's just too much smoke for there not be a fire somewhere

A factcheck if you're interested:

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/acorn_accusations.html

It doesn't go easy on Obama either, but it does show just how silly this "they're gonna steal the election!1!!1!!" business is.

Heisenberg

10-21-2008, 06:13 AM

Even the most comprehensive fraud techniques that have been speculated o alleged can only make a difference of a tiny fraction of one percent. Unless this election is razor thin like the last two, it'll be pretty difficult to argue that the fraud issues -- which have existed in every previous election in recent memory, going both ways -- had any impact on the outcome.

The most effective method of "fraud" isn't really fraud at all. It's voter supression. It's kicking up enough dust in the air to put doubt in a voter's mind that their vote wouldn't count anyway or that it wouldn't be worth the trouble.

It's also not having equal voting machines at all polling locations when prior elections show the same amount of people going to both or closing down polling locations that are close to certain types of voters.

Those will ALWAYS have a bigger effect and it happens every single election.

Beast_from_East

10-21-2008, 06:58 AM

I agree with the basis of your remark here. There is a great non-partisan website keeping track of this, fivethirtyeight.com, which I have been following regularly. It is looking at the race purely from the standpoint of electoral votes and they currently calculate a 93% chance Obama wins. They give all sorts of interesting statistics, such as calculating a 4.3% chance McCain wins the popular vote but loses the election. If you like numbers, it is a great website to look at.
I would like to respectfully point out that this is not entirely true. You can say Kerry lost "by one state" as long as we clarify that the one state had at least 16 electoral votes, but only 3 of Bush's 31 states qualify. You can take away any one of the red states except Texas, Ohio or Florida, and Bush would have still won the election.

So the "one state" strategy certainly works if Obama takes Ohio or Florida (plus all of the 2004 blue states). But it wouldn't work if he only took Missouri, New Mexico or Virginia for example.

Speaking purely from someone who enjoys statistics, I think Obama has a very solid lead in the electoral college.

I checked out the website fivethirtyeight.com and it is pretty cool. If anybody is really into numbers and statistics, check out the site.

Obama has a 92.5% chance of reaching 270 electorial votes and McCain has a 7.5% chance from the numbers.

Barring a monumental collaspe, I dont see any way McCain can catch up.

Beast_from_East

10-21-2008, 07:07 AM

I'll just make this the Zogby thread. New poll tonight:

Obama 50.3%
McCain 42.4%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1600

Dam, Zogby is one of the most conservative pollsters out there. If he has Obama at 8%, this thing is pretty much over with.

Heisenberg

10-21-2008, 07:12 AM

Dam, Zogby is one of the most conservative pollsters out there. If he has Obama at 8%, this thing is pretty much over with.

Eh. As erratic as that poll is, he'll have McCain up 2 tomorrow or something.

trickblue

10-21-2008, 07:57 AM

VietCowboy

10-21-2008, 08:53 AM

Doomsday101

10-21-2008, 09:06 AM

um, the first person arrested so far is a GOP firm and a Republican for voter fraud, NOT ACORN! His company, which gets paid by the GOP for registering Republicans, are now being investigated, and the dude arrested. Many of them falsely switched REAL voters' political affiliation, not putting Mickey Mouse on registration forms.

so, who's worse, someone putting Mickey Mouse on a registration form, or someone who puts a real voter and submits it, only for that voter to find out their political party is switched from Democrat to Republican?

It does not matter the only thing that matters is catching those who do it and punishing them. That goes for any republican or democrat. ACORN is not guilt free and gets money from tax payers as a so called non-partisan group they should be shut down for this continual fraudulent activities

VietCowboy

10-21-2008, 09:19 AM

It does not matter the only thing that matters is catching those who do it and punishing them. That goes for any republican or democrat. ACORN is not guilt free and gets money from tax payers as a so called non-partisan group they should be shut down for this continual fraudulent activities

ACORN was accused in NM by the GOP for 20+ votes, and turns out, those people were all legitimate. Some of the old DOJ are actually speaking out against this witch-hunt.

Doomsday101

10-21-2008, 09:24 AM

ACORN was accused in NM by the GOP for 20+ votes, and turns out, those people were all legitimate. Some of the old DOJ are actually speaking out against this witch-hunt.

The liberal stance as always. Please ACORN has been in trouble many times over the years for the same damn things. They are paid through tax payer money as a supposed non-partisan group yet they endore Obama. Give it a rest if you can't see the wrong doing done by ACORN then you must be blind. I'm aginst any type voter or registration fraud no matter which side does it so if you want to continue playing this BS of my side did nothing wrong then be my guest.

VietCowboy

10-21-2008, 09:30 AM

The liberal stance as always. Please ACORN has been in trouble many times over the years for the same damn things. They are paid through tax payer money as a supposed non-partisan group yet they endore Obama. Give it a rest if you can't see the wrong doing done by ACORN then you must be blind. I'm aginst any type voter or registration fraud no matter which side does it so if you want to continue playing this BS of my side did nothing wrong then be my guest.

ACORN has NEVER been convicted of anything. Go ahead and look for it. It has been individuals who work for them, and it turns out, in most cases, ACORN is the one who turned them in. These people are frauding ACORN. But, if you want to believe otherwise, that's fine. And last time I checked, I never said the Democrats did nothing wrong, but don't think the meme from the Republicans about voter fraud is anything but laughable...at them...they're the ones who do it just as much if not more, and if you can't see that, just read about it in all the states who've purged their voters by the thousands more than those that move away or die each year.

Doomsday101

10-21-2008, 09:38 AM

ACORN has NEVER been convicted of anything. Go ahead and look for it. It has been individuals who work for them, and it turns out, in most cases, ACORN is the one who turned them in. These people are frauding ACORN. But, if you want to believe otherwise, that's fine. And last time I checked, I never said the Democrats did nothing wrong, but don't think the meme from the Republicans about voter fraud is anything but laughable...at them...they're the ones who do it just as much if not more, and if you can't see that, just read about it in all the states who've purged their voters by the thousands more than those that move away or die each year.

They have tons of evidence sitting on the desk of many counties through out the country yes they knowing are doing wrong. You want to turn a blind eye be my guest it nothing new to see the Liberals with their head in the sand.

BrAinPaiNt

10-21-2008, 09:45 AM

ky-YXvxYbck

VietCowboy

10-21-2008, 10:15 AM

They have tons of evidence sitting on the desk of many counties through out the country yes they knowing are doing wrong. You want to turn a blind eye be my guest it nothing new to see the Liberals with their head in the sand.

citation's please of any convictions ACORN has committed, then I'll agree with you.

Cajuncowboy

10-21-2008, 10:18 AM

citation's please of any convictions ACORN has committed, then I'll agree with you.

LOL. Little caylee's mom in florida hasn't been convicted of anything but you don't think she had anything to do with her daughter's disappearance?

I guess OJ is innocent of killing Nicole Brown. He wasn't convicted of that either.

Wow!

Doomsday101

10-21-2008, 10:24 AM

citation's please of any convictions ACORN has committed, then I'll agree with you.

1.Three former ACORN workers pled guilty to voter-registration fraud in Washington State today.
The Seattle Times reported:

Three of seven defendants in the biggest voter-registration fraud scheme in Washington history have pleaded guilty and one has been sentenced, prosecutors said Monday.

The defendants were all temporary employees of ACORN, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, when they allegedly filled out and submitted more than 1,800 fictitious voter-registration cards during a 2006 registration drive in King and Pierce counties.

Numerous ACORN-related indictments and, or convictions, have been seeded across the country in recent years.

2.Four part-time ACORN employees were indicted in Kansas City, Mo., for voter registration fraud in November 2006.

3.Two Colorado ACORN workers were sentenced to community service, in January 2005, for submitting false voter registrations.

4. Four Ohio ACORN employees were indicted by a federal grand jury for submitting false voter registration forms.

How about 4 right off the bat I'm sure I can give you more considering ACORN has been involved in many disputes in many states for the same things over and over.

VietCowboy

10-21-2008, 10:29 AM

1.Three former ACORN workers pled guilty to voter-registration fraud in Washington State today.
The Seattle Times reported:

Three of seven defendants in the biggest voter-registration fraud scheme in Washington history have pleaded guilty and one has been sentenced, prosecutors said Monday.

The defendants were all temporary employees of ACORN, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, when they allegedly filled out and submitted more than 1,800 fictitious voter-registration cards during a 2006 registration drive in King and Pierce counties.

Numerous ACORN-related indictments and, or convictions, have been seeded across the country in recent years.

2.Four part-time ACORN employees were indicted in Kansas City, Mo., for voter registration fraud in November 2006.

3.Two Colorado ACORN workers were sentenced to community service, in January 2005, for submitting false voter registrations.

4. Four Ohio ACORN employees were indicted by a federal grand jury for submitting false voter registration forms.

How about 4 right off the bat I'm sure I can give you more considering ACORN has been involved in many disputes in many states for the same things over and over.

Um...I already talked about employees, how about citations for ACORN, the company/organization?

Bonecrusher#31

10-21-2008, 10:32 AM

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1597

Obama's lead shrinks to 2.7 points and shrinking.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1600

:banghead:

VietCowboy

10-21-2008, 10:32 AM

Bonecrusher#31

10-21-2008, 10:32 AM

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1597

Obama's lead shrinks to 2.7 points and shrinking.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1600 :bang2:

Doomsday101

10-21-2008, 10:34 AM

You mean the company who employees them and teaches them and does so off tax payer money? Please hang it up with the Liberal BS. You don't see the forest through the trees because you choose not to.

BrAinPaiNt

10-21-2008, 10:35 AM

Heisenberg

10-21-2008, 10:37 AM

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1600 :bang2:

Ha. I beat you to it a few posts up. I'm guessing the poll of choice today is the Battleground poll showing it a 1 point race. :D

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102108_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

Weird how it goes from 13 points to 1 point in less than a week. Surely such a move would be reflected in other polls, but no...

Just further proof that pollsters are smoking crack and that averages are good.

VietCowboy

10-21-2008, 10:39 AM

You mean the company who employees them and teaches them and does so off tax payer money? Please hang it up with the Liberal BS. You don't see the forest through the trees because you choose not to.

no, I asked you for citation, you obviously can't provide it therefore, when you call BS is BS.

Five years, unprecedented resources, across the country, not one case was even prosecuted, let alone a conviction.

Just because some trees are rotten, that doesn't mean the whole forest is. In fact, the forest cooperates with the authorities in investigating these rotten trees.

Cajuncowboy

10-21-2008, 10:42 AM

Ha. I beat you to it a few posts up. I'm guessing the poll of choice today is the Battleground poll showing it a 1 point race. :D

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102108_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

Weird how it goes from 13 points to 1 point in less than a week. Surely such a move would be reflected in other polls, but no...

Just further proof that pollsters are smoking crack and that averages are good.

I think it's more proof that none of them know what they are doing. Also, the wild swings within the polling only proves that this is an even closer race than the polls suggest. To get that kind of spread in such a short time is crazy.

We all know what the polls said the last two elections and we know how that turned out, so the credibility with any poll, whether I post it or anyone else should be looked at sceptically.

Doomsday101

10-21-2008, 10:43 AM

no, I asked you for citation, you obviously can't provide it therefore, when you call BS is BS.

Five years, unprecedented resources, across the country, not one case was even prosecuted, let alone a conviction.

Just because some trees are rotten, that doesn't mean the whole forest is. In fact, the forest cooperates with the authorities in investigating these rotten trees.

When it is election after election and numerous states every single time then yes you look to the top of the organization. Because they can hide behind the employees and plead innocent they are guilt free? Give me a break

Heisenberg

10-21-2008, 10:44 AM

I think it's more proof that none of them know what they are doing. Also, the wild swings within the polling only proves that this is an even closer race than the polls suggest. To get that kind of spread in such a short time is crazy.

We all know what the polls said the last two elections and we know how that turned out, so the credibility with any poll, whether I post it or anyone else should be looked at sceptically.

Agreed. I guess we'll find out what's going on November 4th. I'm excited. We're gettin close now.

Cajuncowboy

10-21-2008, 10:45 AM

Agreed. I guess we'll find out what's going on November 4th. I'm excited. We're gettin close now.

You and Chris Mathews got that tingle going up your leg do ya?

:D

VietCowboy

10-21-2008, 10:48 AM

When it is election after election and numerous states every single time then yes you look to the top of the organization. Because they can hide behind the employees and plead innocent they are guilt free? Give me a break

then why would the parent company getting a free pass? Why not shut down ACORN?

Doomsday101

10-21-2008, 10:59 AM

then why would the parent company getting a free pass? Why not shut down ACORN?

You right they do nothing wrong and provide an unbiased service to the election process. :rolleyes: Nailing the people at the top who are very well tied into the democratic party is not an easy task to bring down especially when you have liberals in congress fighting for them. After conviction after conviction of ACORN workers nothing has changed in how ACORN recruits or teaches its employees. Currently ACORN is under FBI investigation but the investigation has been put on hold until after the election

Heisenberg

10-21-2008, 11:01 AM

You and Chris Mathews got that tingle going up your leg do ya?

:D

Ha. Indeed.

Rumor is that he's gonna run in 2010 for Arlen Specter's senate seat. Weird.

Bonecrusher#31

10-21-2008, 11:03 AM

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1597

Obama's lead shrinks to 2.7 points and shrinking.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1600 :banghead: :laugh1:

VietCowboy

10-21-2008, 11:23 AM

You right they do nothing wrong and provide an unbiased service to the election process. :rolleyes: Nailing the people at the top who are very well tied into the democratic party is not an easy task to bring down especially when you have liberals in congress fighting for them. After conviction after conviction of ACORN workers nothing has changed in how ACORN recruits or teaches its employees. Currently ACORN is under FBI investigation but the investigation has been put on hold until after the election

so what you are talking about is a conspiracy these past 5 years to not get a conviction? That all the US attorney's that were fired had nothing to do with the fact that they couldn't prosecute 1 on voter fraud? That a prominent former DOJ is lying when he has said the current investigation is nothing but a witch hunt?

The parent company has done NOTHING WRONG, that does not mean they don't have people who work for them that is unscrupulous. They've been the ones who've pursued their employees that break their rules. Why would they do that? Why would they voluntarily turn in their own employees?

Rogah

10-21-2008, 01:30 PM

Dam, Zogby is one of the most conservative pollsters out there. If he has Obama at 8%, this thing is pretty much over with.What is it about his polling methods that make you say he is "one of the most conservative pollsters"...? (I assume you mean politically conservative, but if I misinterpreted then I apologize).

One thing about Zogby I have always wondered, and maybe someone here can explain, is precisely how he defines "likely voters". I always see him using that term but have never seen it clearly defined. Does he simply ask the person being polled "How likely are you to vote..?" Or does he ask something like "Did you vote in 2004...?" Of course, that last question would instantly exclude anyone aged 18-22 from being considered a "likely voter" which doesn't seem terribly fair.

Heisenberg

10-22-2008, 01:31 AM

Tonight's numbers:

Obama 51.6%
McCain 42.0%

Pollster John Zogby: “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”

trickblue

10-22-2008, 02:18 AM

so what you are talking about is a conspiracy these past 5 years to not get a conviction? That all the US attorney's that were fired had nothing to do with the fact that they couldn't prosecute 1 on voter fraud? That a prominent former DOJ is lying when he has said the current investigation is nothing but a witch hunt?

The parent company has done NOTHING WRONG, that does not mean they don't have people who work for them that is unscrupulous. They've been the ones who've pursued their employees that break their rules. Why would they do that? Why would they voluntarily turn in their own employees?

Lawyer Speak... no one convicted...

ACORN is innocent, conservatives are all that is wrong with this country...

Technicalities won't go much here... unless we have to define what "is" is... ;)

Cue the Starr bunch...

I like talking to Viet... nice gal and very smart...

I will offer you this from Winston Churchill:"If you're not liberal when you're young, you have no heart. If you're not conservative when you're older, you have no brain."

Not sure if it is accurate, although it has gone around for years...

The point is that you change values as you get older...

Once you have a family your values change...

I would very much like to see your thinking in 20 years... things do change in regards to values...

20 years ago I was a poon hound... this day and age I am desperate to see my kids run in the district track meet to the point I will take off from work and drive 275 miles to do so...

We all know how to solve the world's problems in our 20's. When we get in our 30's, not so much. Until the two party system changes, you have to conform. It's not Republican or Democrat... it's the system. Obama will not change this, so don't fool yourself...

Don't hang your values on the here and now... your ultimate value is what you do in regards to your family. Once you hold that little guy/gal in your arms for the first time, all bets are off... if you don't cry, you aren't human, you will see...you will be amazed at how your values change at that point. I'm not saying it is Democrat or Republican... but it certainly is values...

I will tell you, those diapers suck... but you will change them with a smile on your face and a song in your heart (and a clothespin on your nose)... :D

(Hint) if you have a boy, when you take that diaper off, put your hand in front of that junk if you don't want a pee shower... ;)

Can I get a shout out for that one?

It's not a an issue of politics, it's an issue of family... your values will change no matter what party you support... Minor issues become major issues... What you value now will CERTAINLY change...

I'm just sayin'...

trickblue

10-22-2008, 02:54 AM

I will offer this as well...

Joe Biden has made a LOT of money in his life... he is CERTAINLY not a millionaire, but he has made some good coin...

Does it bother you that he has given an average $369 dollars a year over the past decade?

I give that much every other month... and I make MUCH less than he does although I can't complain... and I won't except that he condones more from me...

I am not a fan of Bush/Cheney, but Cheney made 9 million last year and gave 7 million to charity. I remember a dolt here that said it was warranted and political and totally dismissed it...

Now, Biden gave a total of $369 a year over the last ten years... is that not embarrassing and hypocritical? I guess he's not patriotic...

Obama wasn't much better until he decided to run for president...

This from the Huffington Post:
From 2000 through 2004, the senator and his wife never gave more than $3,500 a year in charitable donations -- about 1 percent of their annual earnings. In 2005, however, that total jumped to $77,315 (4.7 percent of annual earnings), and to $60,307 in 2006 (6.1 percent).

$3500 is less than I give... and it increased when he was seeking the presidency... and still VERY low...

How can he ask us to give, and be appreciative, when he is a selfish ******* in his own right?

hairic

10-22-2008, 02:59 AM

I will offer you this from Winston Churchill:"If you're not liberal when you're young, you have no heart. If you're not conservative when you're older, you have no brain."

Not sure if it is accurate, although it has gone around for years...

That quote by Churchill is incorrect. It's just repulican/not, socialism/not, then socialism/conservatism, but never liberalism/conservatism. I also don't think Churchill ever said it, because it'd make no sense. He was a member of the Conservatives when young, switch to Liberals a few years later, then switched back to Conservatives. If he did say it, I imagine it'd be along the lines of socialism/capitalism.

Here's the quote:
Not to be a republican at twenty is proof of want of heart;
to be one at thirty is proof of want of head.
-Francois Guisot (1787-1874)

It was regarding whether France should become a repulic or a monarchy.

trickblue

10-22-2008, 03:23 AM

That quote by Churchill is incorrect. It's just repulican/not, socialism/not, then socialism/conservatism, but never liberalism/conservatism. I also don't think Churchill ever said it, because it'd make no sense. He was a member of the Conservatives when young, switch to Liberals a few years later, then switched back to Conservatives. If he did say it, I imagine it'd be along the lines of socialism/capitalism.

Here's the quote:
Not to be a republican at twenty is proof of want of heart;
to be one at thirty is proof of want of head.
-Francois Guisot (1787-1874)

It was regarding whether France should become a repulic or a monarchy.

First of all, did I not qualify it by saying I wasn't sure?

It has been going around for all of my life...

On the other hand, you interpreted it as fact in the way you heard it after saying you weren't sure whether or not he said it...

I said I wasn't sure... you said he never said it, then said you weren't sure... Did you not?

I honestly don't know...

I find it odd you can interpret it and not be sure he said it...

Again... I don't know and I qualified that... you don't know and applied it...

hairic

10-22-2008, 04:02 AM

First of all, did I not qualify it by saying I wasn't sure?

It has been going around for all of my life...

On the other hand, you interpreted it as fact in the way you heard it after saying you weren't sure whether or not he said it...

I said I wasn't sure... you said he never said it, then said you weren't sure... Did you not?

I honestly don't know...

I find it odd you can interpret it and not be sure he said it...

Again... I don't know and I qualified that... you don't know and applied it...

The reason I said never is because the amended quote belongs to someone else - it can't be Churchill's quote. But that doesn't mean he could have said something different, but related (more relevant to his philosophy) or he may have parroted the amended quote of some French guy (socialist/conservative). It was just a simple speculation.

I'm also aware of the qualified part. That's why I quoted the relevant parts of your post, instead of just the quote.

Anyway, the only reason I posted this was because it's been posted here before, it didn't compute, and I went and looked at some history. I didn't want to correct the poster at the time because they give me logic headaches. I'm done with it.

Heisenberg

10-23-2008, 02:20 AM

Tonight's Zogby:

Obama 52.2%
McCain 40.3%

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama now has a huge lead among young voters, independents, and Hispanic voters. It's obviously not over. Frankly, this could tighten up and then loosen up again before Election Day. We saw movement on Election Day in New Hampshire, but at least for now, Obama has a very big lead. In the absence of news, McCain is not connecting. He seemed to be connecting during and immediately after the last debate, but got lost in issues that are not on people's minds. At some point, there are some issues that just overwhelm, and McCain has been particularly weak on the economy. He misstated the problem, confused his position, acted in a frantic way, and then looked like he wanted to run away from it. Meanwhile, Obama has been cool and confident, which worked for FDR in 1932 and worked for Ronald Reagan in 1980."

BrAinPaiNt

10-23-2008, 02:24 AM

Tonight's Zogby:

Obama 52.2%
McCain 40.3%

Obama lead on McCain grows to 12 points (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081023/ts_nm/us_usa_politics_poll)

silverbear

10-23-2008, 05:17 AM

That's the one that got to within 49-47 the other day and was touted around here as a sign that the race was tightening. Yesterday it was Zogby, where the margin doubled today.

If you ignore the bouncing, Obama's up 5 points, give or take a point.

Actually, at the moment the Real Clear Politics website (a conservative site) has Obama's average lead at 7 points... I checked it about 2 minutes ago...

silverbear

10-23-2008, 05:21 AM

There's a reason for this. He has saturated the battlegrounds in ads, volunteers, and paid staff. He has so much money to spend a the moment in critical states that while one side is getting out their message with a whisper, the other side is getting out their message with a bullhorn.

Ozzu, you hit on the real key to this election-- money... Obama's rolling in it, to the point where he's gonna be able to buy a HALF HOUR of air time on the major networks next week...

What's most entertaining about this money advantage is that it's come from millions and millions of small donors like me-- I've sent in 5 bucks on two different occasions... it was all I could afford...

That's the genius of the Obama campaign; when I get e-mail requests from them, they start out by asking for five bucks, then mention that you can give more... when I get a mailing from the GOP, they start out asking for a grand, and the smallest donation they mention is 35 bucks...

It's true, watch your pennies and the dollars add up... I'd also suggest that the money disparity reflects the nation's deep discontent with what the Republicans have done to the country these last 8 years...

Beast_from_East

10-23-2008, 05:33 AM

Ozzu, you hit on the real key to this election-- money... Obama's rolling in it, to the point where he's gonna be able to buy a HALF HOUR of air time on the major networks next week...

What's most entertaining about this money advantage is that it's come from millions and millions of small donors like me-- I've sent in 5 bucks on two different occasions... it was all I could afford...

That's the genius of the Obama campaign; when I get e-mail requests from them, they start out by asking for five bucks, then mention that you can give more... when I get a mailing from the GOP, they start out asking for a grand, and the smallest donation they mention is 35 bucks...

It's true, watch your pennies and the dollars add up... I'd also suggest that the money disparity reflects the nation's deep discontent with what the Republicans have done to the country these last 8 years...

I was blown away by Obama getting $150 mill last month, unreal:eek:

Good to see you back on the boards Silverbear, everything been ok???

silverbear

10-23-2008, 05:38 AM

um, the first person arrested so far is a GOP firm and a Republican for voter fraud, NOT ACORN! His company, which gets paid by the GOP for registering Republicans, are now being investigated, and the dude arrested. Many of them falsely switched REAL voters' political affiliation, not putting Mickey Mouse on registration forms.

so, who's worse, someone putting Mickey Mouse on a registration form, or someone who puts a real voter and submits it, only for that voter to find out their political party is switched from Democrat to Republican?

What exactly is the advantage to the registering party in lying about the voter's political affiliation?? It's not like the voter will vote differently than he intended to all along...

silverbear

10-23-2008, 05:39 AM

It does not matter the only thing that matters is catching those who do it and punishing them. That goes for any republican or democrat. ACORN is not guilt free and gets money from tax payers as a so called non-partisan group they should be shut down for this continual fraudulent activities

If and when they're convicted of any crime, I'll agree with you...

silverbear

10-23-2008, 05:43 AM

LOL. Little caylee's mom in florida hasn't been convicted of anything but you don't think she had anything to do with her daughter's disappearance?

I guess OJ is innocent of killing Nicole Brown. He wasn't convicted of that either.

Wow!

So, we're supposed to shut ACORN down, deny them the same due process afforded to every citizen??

It don't work that way, pal... you want 'em shut down, you're gonna have to convict them of something...

From where I sit, all they're guilty of is a rather stupid employment policy... they really oughta fix that...

silverbear

10-23-2008, 05:44 AM

1.Three former ACORN workers pled guilty to voter-registration fraud in Washington State today.
The Seattle Times reported:

Three of seven defendants in the biggest voter-registration fraud scheme in Washington history have pleaded guilty and one has been sentenced, prosecutors said Monday.

The defendants were all temporary employees of ACORN, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, when they allegedly filled out and submitted more than 1,800 fictitious voter-registration cards during a 2006 registration drive in King and Pierce counties.

Numerous ACORN-related indictments and, or convictions, have been seeded across the country in recent years.

2.Four part-time ACORN employees were indicted in Kansas City, Mo., for voter registration fraud in November 2006.

3.Two Colorado ACORN workers were sentenced to community service, in January 2005, for submitting false voter registrations.

4. Four Ohio ACORN employees were indicted by a federal grand jury for submitting false voter registration forms.

How about 4 right off the bat I'm sure I can give you more considering ACORN has been involved in many disputes in many states for the same things over and over.

Again, some INDIVIDUALS working for ACORN were convicted of crimes, and presumably are being punished for those crimes... in most of those cases, they were turned in by ACORN itself...

You still haven't provided one example of where the organization has been found guilty of ANYTHING...

silverbear

10-23-2008, 05:47 AM

You mean the company who employees them and teaches them and does so off tax payer money? Please hang it up with the Liberal BS. You don't see the forest through the trees because you choose not to.

Have you been missing your common sense long??

ACORN had some employees who were too freakin' LAZY to actually go out and do the work, so they filled out a bunch of bogus registration forms... IOW, they ripped ACORN off... for eight bucks an hour...

Which makes ACORN stupid, but not criminal...

silverbear

10-23-2008, 05:50 AM

Lawyer Speak... no one convicted...

ACORN is innocent, conservatives are all that is wrong with this country...

That's not true-- it's NEOcons that are behind most of what's wrong with this country...

There's nothing wrong with conservatism...

silverbear

10-23-2008, 05:53 AM

I will offer this as well...

Joe Biden has made a LOT of money in his life... he is CERTAINLY not a millionaire, but he has made some good coin...

Does it bother you that he has given an average $369 dollars a year over the past decade?

Nope... I really don't care what any politician donates to charitable causes... I also don't care how much money any of them make...

Never have cast a vote based on the "philanthropy" of the candidate... that's completely irrelevant to his or her fitness to hold office...

JRid21

10-23-2008, 05:55 AM

That's not true-- it's NEOcons that are behind most of what's wrong with this country...

There's nothing wrong with conservatism...

Thank you :)
Who out of our Republican presidents would you yourself classify as Neo-Cons? j.w. I've talked to various teachers and people who always have differing views on that subject

silverbear

10-23-2008, 05:56 AM

I was blown away by Obama getting $150 mill last month, unreal:eek:

Good to see you back on the boards Silverbear, everything been ok???

Things are good, thanks for asking... I had to exile myself because I was getting ugly, and was fixin' to get myself banned from the entire board... I love the board too much to let that happen, and I value the friends I was snarlin' at too much...

But I've sat on the sidelines just as long as I can, and I'm pretty happy with the way the election was shaping up, so I figure I stand a pretty good chance of keeping my sense of humor the rest of the way... if I find myself getting angry again, I'll go back to exile...