The REAL Maverick: Present Economy Worse Than the Depression

[masomenos]

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[masomenos]

I think that there is an interesting idea behind this video. Basically, Taleb is saying that we can't accurately predict the current market because it is a market unlike any that we have ever seen. In a Friedman style free market system we have seen the creation of extremely large and extremely influential corporate conglomerates. Because the market is more unified we experience greater stability, however, from the same source, we also find a greater impact when things go wrong. What we're experiencing now, as far as the economic crisis, is something that is unique to economic history. I doubt (or maybe only hope) that Taleb is wrong and that we are not facing unforseen consequences, but, like Mandlebrot says, we certainly are facing the probability.

[burmafrd]

Possibility. And anyone comparing what we have now, or even what some pessimists think we might get, to the Great Depression loses ALL CREDIBILITY.
Some here need to do a little research on just HOW BAD that time was.

[ninja]

Well, then, I guess the Depresion wasn't too bad after all.

My uncle lived through the depression and was dirt poor. He said didn't think much about it. Nobody thought they were poor, just the same as everyone else. No one starved. It is a good thing they didn't have the-sky-is-falling media to tell them 24/7 how pitiful their lives are.

[burmafrd]

My grandfather told me a lot of stories about the Depression One must remember there was no welfare back then- soup kitchens and the churches was all that was there. People DID starve; malnourishment caused disease and many died. If you lived on a farm (and kept it from the bank) you were OK. The non farmers and many in the cities suffered the most.

[Rogah]

It never ceases to amaze me how people arrogantly think that their brand of suffering is as bad as (or worse than) anyone has ever had it. Unemployment during the Great Depression was what? 31%? I think we're at roughly 6% today. So unless and until we hit at least 20% in the present day, talk to the hand.

I went to the Angus Barn last night. It's a restaurant where a party of 2 can expect to pay about $150 for their dinner. There was a 90 minute wait to get a table.

[VCDefectors]

Possibility. And anyone comparing what we have now, or even what some pessimists think we might get, to the Great Depression loses ALL CREDIBILITY.
Some here need to do a little research on just HOW BAD that time was.

While the average American today has more wealth today than the average American in the 1930s, it is more than offset by the amount of debt this nation has accumulated. People in the 1930s did not rely on borrowing and producing/consuming intangible goods like we do now. It's no different than a person who lives on a credit card and has no job. Eventually, that wealth will evaporate. And if the stock market is any indicator, that process has already begun.

If we are truly experiencing deflation, as the numbers seem to indicate, we are indeed in deeper trouble than we were during the depression. Prices will continue to fall, and that will induce consumer behavior that is detrimental to economic growth. The main difference is that the type of wealth this nation is built upon today will evaporate at a much faster rate.

[VCDefectors]

It never ceases to amaze me how people arrogantly think that their brand of suffering is as bad as (or worse than) anyone has ever had it. Unemployment during the Great Depression was what? 31%? I think we're at roughly 6% today. So unless and until we hit at least 20% in the present day, talk to the hand.

I went to the Angus Barn last night. It's a restaurant where a party of 2 can expect to pay about $150 for their dinner. There was a 90 minute wait to get a table.

You can always tell when someone lives in an area that hasn't been largely impacted by the recession yet. In my area, I see going out of business signs all over the place, empty buildings, empty restaurants, long lines at the unemployment line, state and local government services being drastically cut.

Feel fortunate that the recession hasn't hit your hometown yet. But don't assume that the media is just making this stuff up. It's happening.

[JiggsCasey]

You can always tell when someone lives in an area that hasn't been largely impacted by the recession yet. In my area, I see going out of business signs all over the place, empty buildings, empty restaurants, long lines at the unemployment line, state and local government services being drastically cut.

Feel fortunate that the recession hasn't hit your hometown yet. But don't assume that the media is just making this stuff up. It's happening.

of course it's happening... the full blunt force of a half dozen major western banks dissolving hasn't even been felt yet... it will get a lot worse... especially after Citigroup collapses...

but it doesn't matter to some people... they can't see past their own neighborhood... there could be mass looting in American cities, and priviledged Con men would still be playing Frank Drebbin...

"please disperse! everything is under control! there's nothing to see here!"

when it does eventually start to "trickle up"... they'll just blame Obama and the "liberal" Senate...

[VietCowboy]

of course it's happening... the full blunt force of a half dozen major western banks dissolving hasn't even been felt yet... it will get a lot worse... especially after Citigroup collapses...

but it doesn't matter to some people... they can't see past their own neighborhood... there could be mass looting in American cities, and priviledged Con men would still be playing Frank Drebbin...

"please disperse! everything is under control! there's nothing to see here!"

when it does eventually start to "trickle up"... they'll just blame Obama and the "liberal" Senate...

yes, I live in a bubble too. The only thing about the economy that has affected me, is that earlier this week, it was announced that our travel grants would be reduced from $700 for plane tickets down to $500, and $100 per diem down to $50. Besides that, and asking everyone to conserve energy, I have not really been affected by what is going on in the economy.

[VCDefectors]

of course it's happening... the full blunt force of a half dozen major western banks dissolving hasn't even been felt yet... it will get a lot worse... especially after Citigroup collapses...

but it doesn't matter to some people... they can't see past their own neighborhood... there could be mass looting in American cities, and priviledged Con men would still be playing Frank Drebbin...

"please disperse! everything is under control! there's nothing to see here!"

when it does eventually start to "trickle up"... they'll just blame Obama and the "liberal" Senate...

Personally, I blame technology for the bubble. It has drastically altered how producers and consumers behave. The e-way era of economics isn't fully understood and it will be a long while before the principles for managing it get nailed down. That's why Dittoheads make me laugh when they start spewing Reaganomics, as they clearly don't know what they are talking about.

[Rogah]

You can always tell when someone lives in an area that hasn't been largely impacted by the recession yet. In my area, I see going out of business signs all over the place, empty buildings, empty restaurants, long lines at the unemployment line, state and local government services being drastically cut. Sure you do :rolleyes:

I mean, do people even wait in unemployment lines anymore? I went on unemployment once in 2001 and never stood in a single line.
Feel fortunate that the recession hasn't hit your hometown yet. But don't assume that the media is just making this stuff up. It's happening.Oh, I absolutely believe the recession is real. I doubt a single one of us has a 401(k) that hasn't lost at least 33% in the past few months alone. I am just trying to point out the absurdity of comparing today's economy to the Great Depression. I have always found it very selfish and arrogant of people that think their brand of suffering is worse than everyone else's.

Yes we certainly have many problems here and now to deal with. A lot of people are experiencing some very real suffering. But to equate our problems of today to the problems of the Great Depression shows a phenomenal ignorance of American history.

[VCDefectors]

Sure you do :rolleyes:

I mean, do people even wait in unemployment lines anymore? I went on unemployment once in 2001 and never stood in a single line.
Oh, I absolutely believe the recession is real. I doubt a single one of us has a 401(k) that hasn't lost at least 33% in the past few months alone. I am just trying to point out the absurdity of comparing today's economy to the Great Depression. I have always found it very selfish and arrogant of people that think their brand of suffering is worse than everyone else's.

Yes we certainly have many problems here and now to deal with. A lot of people are experiencing some very real suffering. But to equate our problems of today to the problems of the Great Depression shows a phenomenal ignorance of American history.

IMO, the real arrogance is assuming that a depression can never happen again. Your view reminds me of those people in New Orleans that stayed when Katrina hit.

In a typical recession, you don't see deflationary trends. And you certainly don't see housing prices fall the way they have. If this bailout plan doesn't work, and there is no evidence to suggest that it will, we will get to those double-digit unemployment numbers very quickly.

[Rogah]

IMO, the real arrogance is assuming that a depression can never happen again. Your view reminds me of those people in New Orleans that stayed when Katrina hit. Well with all due respect, please don't put words in my mouth. I never said a depression could never happen again. All I have said is that this downturn that we experiencing right here and now does not reach the levels of suffering our nation experienced in the 1930's and I don't believe this current economy is headed there.

Please respond to the words I've actually said instead of putting words in my mouth and then responding to what you're pretending I've said.
In a typical recession, you don't see deflationary trends. And you certainly don't see housing prices fall the way they have. If this bailout plan doesn't work, and there is no evidence to suggest that it will, we will get to those double-digit unemployment numbers very quickly.Again, I think you're trying to put words in my mouth. I didn't say "double-digit" unemployment was impossible (though I find it unlikely). I am saying 20% unemployment is not going to happen in this economy. In your opinion, do you think we headed for 20% unemployment?

[VCDefectors]

Well with all due respect, please don't put words in my mouth. I never said a depression could never happen again. All I have said is that this downturn that we experiencing right here and now does not reach the levels of suffering our nation experienced in the 1930's and I don't believe this current economy is headed there.
Again, I think you're trying to put words in my mouth. I didn't say "double-digit" unemployment was impossible (though I find it doubtful). I am saying 20% unemployment is not going to happen in this economy. In your opinion, do you think we headed for 20% unemployment?

If what is going on right isn't enough to convince you that a depression is a strong possiblity, then I would have to assume that you are among those who feel that the Great Depression won't ever happen again. Sorry.

Now I will give you that we haven't reached those levels in our daily lives yet, as the goods and services we produce today are of far greater quality. But in order to maintain this standard of living, there has to be economic growth. What trend out there are you looking at that suggests that economic growth is right around the corner?

And yes, I do believe that 20-30% unemployment rates are not out of the question. I believe that because of the amount of national debt we have accumulated and can no longer leverage it within the international banking structure. Unemployment rates have exponential potential in deflationary periods.

[Rogah]

If what is going on right isn't enough to convince you that a depression is a strong possiblity, then I would have to assume that you are among those who feel that the Great Depression won't ever happen again. Sorry. No apologies necessary. I don't see the logic in your inference, but reasonable people can disagree.
And yes, I do believe that 20-30% unemployment rates are not out of the question.That isn't exactly what I asked, but I certainly admit that I may have been unintentionally unclear. Your previous statements show you don't think 20% unemployment is out of the question. So please allow me to rephrase my question and ask again:

Do you predict we will see 20% unemployment in the United States during our current economic downturn?

[Sasquatch]

Possibility. And anyone comparing what we have now, or even what some pessimists think we might get, to the Great Depression loses ALL CREDIBILITY.
Some here need to do a little research on just HOW BAD that time was.

It always happens eventually. We agree.

[JiggsCasey]

yes, I live in a bubble too. The only thing about the economy that has affected me, is that earlier this week, it was announced that our travel grants would be reduced from $700 for plane tickets down to $500, and $100 per diem down to $50. Besides that, and asking everyone to conserve energy, I have not really been affected by what is going on in the economy.

Great... you're very fortunate thus far...

My workplace laid off 6 full time employees, 3 fathers with young children... 6 more layoffs will come in March...

Mind you, the banks only crashed in late Sept. ... it's very early still... Heck, there's still plenty of bilking still to be done before the deregulation party leaves office...

[arglebargle]

No apologies necessary. I don't see the logic in your inference, but reasonable people can disagree.
That isn't exactly what I asked, but I certainly admit that I may have been unintentionally unclear. Your previous statements show you don't think 20% unemployment is out of the question. So please allow me to rephrase my question and ask again:

Do you predict we will see 20% unemployment in the United States during our current economic downturn?


Rogah, I would like to point out that the unemployment nowadays is not calculated the way it was during the depression (or various other times). As I recall, to make things look nicer, the unemployed who are not actively looking for jobs are not included in the numbers. I think there are percentages of unemployment that are under the radar right now.

[VCDefectors]

Rogah, I would like to point out that the unemployment nowadays is not calculated the way it was during the depression (or various other times). As I recall, to make things look nicer, the unemployed who are not actively looking for jobs are not included in the numbers. I think there are percentages of unemployment that are under the radar right now.

And that's a good point. Also, anyone who is documented as working as little as 1 hour a week is not counted as being unemployed. I know many people who have had their hours cut at work and are struggling to pay their bills.

[VCDefectors]

Do you predict we will see 20% unemployment in the United States during our current economic downturn?

If the auto industry is allowed to fail, that would create a loss of 2-3 million jobs. That would push us close to 20%.

[Sasquatch]

Good exchange guys. So taking these factors into consideration how does unemployment today compare with unemployment during the Depression?

[Rogah]

Rogah, I would like to point out that the unemployment nowadays is not calculated the way it was during the depression (or various other times). As I recall, to make things look nicer, the unemployed who are not actively looking for jobs are not included in the numbers. I think there are percentages of unemployment that are under the radar right now.I honestly didn't know that. Has anyone seen any sort of "adjusted" number for what unemployment was then versus now?

[Rogah]

If the auto industry is allowed to fail, that would create a loss of 2-3 million jobs. That would push us close to 20%.Is there something about my question that makes you fundamentally unable to actually answer it? Is the question poorly phrased? I will gladly clarify it if you would like. I am just asking for your opinion and you keep hemming and hawing, ducking and avoiding.

The question makes absolutely zero asumptions, so it cannot be accused of being based on a faulty premise. Do you predict we will see 20% unemployment in the United States during our current economic downturn?

[masomenos]

Good exchange guys. So taking these factors into consideration how does unemployment today compare with unemployment during the Depression?

Well, in 1930 the unemployment rate was 8.7%. I think, right now, we are at 6.5% or so. People like to dismiss the idea that something bad is on the horizon simply because we're not already there. With unemployment expected to continue rising we could easily see a 2% increase. Will we see 20%+ unemployment rates again? Probably not, but it is a possibility if the "right" things happen.

[VCDefectors]

Is there something about my question that makes you fundamentally unable to actually answer it? Is the question poorly phrased? I will gladly clarify it if you would like. I am just asking for your opinion and you keep hemming and hawing, ducking and avoiding.

The question makes absolutely zero asumptions, so it cannot be accused of being based on a faulty premise. Do you predict we will see 20% unemployment in the United States during our current economic downturn?

I'm sorry Rogah. It must my liberalitus acting up.

Anyway, to answer your question more directly, yes I think we will break the 20% unemployment mark during this economic downtown.

[Rogah]

I'm sorry Rogah. It must my liberalitus acting up.

Anyway, to answer your question more directly, yes I think we will break the 20% unemployment mark during this economic downtown.Thank you!!! In response, I respectfully disagree and I do not think we will get to even 10%. I guess time will tell.

[arglebargle]

Some interesting background and commentary reading, if anyone is gung ho on checking out Unemployment measurement info. As with most everything, the closer you examine it, the more complicated it gets....

http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/ArticleReader?itemid=00000486

http://www.slate.com/id/2202879?nav=wp

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment

http://delong.typepad.com/

[burmafrd]

There is unemployed, the "under" employed, and those that have given up looking. Put them ALL together and you still get nowhere near the debacle the great depression was. And the employment figures were just the tip of the iceberg then.
I notice all the glee the libs here seem to take at saying this is as bad as the great depression. Says all you need to know about them.

No credible person with any real education and experience would call what we have right now even in the same LEAGUE as the great depression.
Which once again pretty much paints all that do in their proper colors.

[arglebargle]

There is unemployed, the "under" employed, and those that have given up looking. Put them ALL together and you still get nowhere near the debacle the great depression was. And the employment figures were just the tip of the iceberg then.
I notice all the glee the libs here seem to take at saying this is as bad as the great depression. Says all you need to know about them.

No credible person with any real education and experience would call what we have right now even in the same LEAGUE as the great depression.
Which once again pretty much paints all that do in their proper colors.

So then, do you think we've hit bottom, and we are going to be going up now only?

[VCDefectors]

There is unemployed, the "under" employed, and those that have given up looking. Put them ALL together and you still get nowhere near the debacle the great depression was. And the employment figures were just the tip of the iceberg then.
I notice all the glee the libs here seem to take at saying this is as bad as the great depression. Says all you need to know about them.

No credible person with any real education and experience would call what we have right now even in the same LEAGUE as the great depression.
Which once again pretty much paints all that do in their proper colors.

Glee? I don't recall anyone looking forward to the prospects of a depression. That would be as silly as your assertion.

And again to those of you who are suggesting that this current economic crisis is being overblown, please bring forth some evidence that things are getting better and not getting worse. So far, I haven't seen anything from your camp, except more griping about the media.

[theogt]

If the auto industry is allowed to fail, that would create a loss of 2-3 million jobs. That would push us close to 20%.:laugh2:

Just stop. You're an idiot.

[bbgun]

:laugh2:

Just stop. You're an idiot.

Ever get the impression that the Left revels in misery?

[VCDefectors]

:laugh2:

Just stop. You're an idiot.

There's no need for personal attacks. Just present whatever evidence you have and leave it at that. Thank you.

[theogt]

There's no need for personal attacks. Just present whatever evidence you have and leave it at that. Thank you.How about you just stop talking about **** you have no clue about?

[burmafrd]

The lefties WANTED bad news to win the election. I wonder how long it will take them to figure out that once they are in total power then it will all be on their plates. ANd if the news keeps staying bad they are the ones carrying the can.

[bbgun]

The lefties WANTED bad news to win the election. I wonder how long it will take them to figure out that once they are in total power then it will all be on their plates. ANd if the news keeps staying bad they are the ones carrying the can.

Actually, it'll probably work to their advantage. When Obama runs for re-election in 2012 and asks Americans "if they're better off now than they were four years ago," the answer almost certainly will be "yes." If things aren't better by then, God help us all.

[Aikbach]

:laugh2:

Just stop. You're an idiot.His math is off, probably used to work for the budget committee.:laugh2:

[JiggsCasey]

Ever get the impression that the Left revels in misery?

Good one... Seen this a time or 10 before.

Wrong again. What we revel in is awareness. Not "nothing to see here" Con man rhetoric.

[bbgun]

Good one... Seen this a time or 10 before.

Wrong again. What we revel in is awareness. Not "nothing to see here" Con man rhetoric.

This from a guy who gets all his news from The Nation. You're about as "aware" as the lookout guy on the Titanic.

[Aikbach]

This from a guy who gets all his news from The Nation. You're about as "aware" as the lookout guy on the Titanic.Come on now, The Nation is printed on 100% recycled hemp from Afghanistan.:D

[JiggsCasey]

This from a guy who gets all his news from The Nation. You're about as "aware" as the lookout guy on the Titanic.

LOL! What?

Show me where I've ever once referred to or sourced "The Nation," clown.

Do you ever get tired of being dead wrong? Or do you relish it?

[Aikbach]

LOL! What?

Show me where I've ever once referred to or sourced "The Nation," clown.

Do you ever get tired of being dead wrong? Or do you relish it?About time someone brought up food and redirected this thread in a positive direction, i also like sauerkraut.

[bbgun]

LOL! What?

Show me where I've ever once referred to or sourced "The Nation," clown.

Do you ever get tired of being dead wrong? Or do you relish it?

Would you have preferred Playgirl? You have a tendency to take things a little too literally. Did God not endow you with a sense of nuance? If you don't want others to mistake you for a braindead emissary of the Left, then stop giving them reason to.

[masomenos]

In all honesty, when it comes to monetary issues Theo is always spot on. He is to the political forum what AdamJT13 is to the Cowboys forum. When he speaks you listen and carry on.

That said, we both suck at evaluating talent and Felix Jones has been served as our crow. :)

[JiggsCasey]

Would you have preferred Playgirl? You have a tendency to take things a little too literally. Did God not endow you with a sense of nuance? If you don't want others to mistake you for a braindead emissary of the Left, then stop giving them reason to.

Translation: "Don't you know? I have free rein to make up your position, and call it nuance. Also, I don't agree with your belief system, but I can't really dispute any of it. So I'll just pretend you're pre-programmed. Helps me feel better."

[burmafrd]

you have a lot of nerve calling ANYONE ELSE pre programed.

[VCDefectors]

In all honesty, when it comes to monetary issues Theo is always spot on. He is to the political forum what AdamJT13 is to the Cowboys forum. When he speaks you listen and carry on.

I haven't been around long enough to know whether that's true or not. So far, I'm rather unimpressed as he has resorted to substituting personal attacks for evidence. I don't mind if I lose a debate to someone presenting evidence, but calling someone an idiot doesn't win my respect.

[AtlCB]

Great... you're very fortunate thus far...

My workplace laid off 6 full time employees, 3 fathers with young children... 6 more layoffs will come in March...

Mind you, the banks only crashed in late Sept. ... it's very early still... Heck, there's still plenty of bilking still to be done before the deregulation party leaves office...

Since both parties have supported deregulation, I'm not sure what you mean by this statement.

[Sasquatch]

In all honesty, when it comes to monetary issues Theo is always spot on. He is to the political forum what AdamJT13 is to the Cowboys forum. When he speaks you listen and carry on.

I enjoy reading Theo's posts (even the dismissive ones when they're not directed at me) but didn't he say that this would be shortest recession ever (that is, he downplayed the seriousness of the crisis) or am I confusing him with someone else?

[masomenos]

I enjoy reading Theo's posts (even the dismissive ones when they're not directed at me) but didn't he say that this would be shortest recession ever (that is, he downplayed the seriousness of the crisis) or am I confusing him with someone else?

Honestly, I don't know. He may have said that and if he did then I'm sure that he has very sound reasoning to back it up. From my experience on the board Theo is one of the most intelligent posters when it comes to economic issues, so I tend to give his comments a little more weight than others. Yes, he will be wrong from time to time on certain things, but (like Adam), the majority of his posts are right on the money.

Granted, you can argue his points from an ideological perspective, but, generally, I'm willing to take his side.

[theogt]

I enjoy reading Theo's posts (even the dismissive ones when they're not directed at me) but didn't he say that this would be shortest recession ever (that is, he downplayed the seriousness of the crisis) or am I confusing him with someone else?We've had one quarter of GDP decline and that was a 0.3% decline. We'll likely have GDP decline in the next two quarters which will make it a technical recession, but we'll probably see growth returning by 2Q09, or 3Q09 at the latest, with 4Q09 seeing the significant impact of uber-aggressive monetary policy. In the end, we'll have seen some growth on the year for both '08 and '09.

That's what I'd call a shallow and short lived recession. It has been worsened by the effect of the credit crisis, which I at all times said was real and possibly disastrous. I thought early on (even after Bear Stearns) that it'd be contained to the financial industry, but unfortunately it began to spread rapidly with the fall of Lehman such that it heavily affected the rest of the economy. That exacerbated things a good deal more than I expected, but it's far from the "economic collapse" that was predicted which I disagreed with.

[MilesAustinforMVP]

pGHODRNJqRo

[theogt]

Actually the guy was wrong on two counts: (1) it hasn't been a major recession, and (2) it didn't begin until the 3rd quarter of 2008, when he predicted a recession would happen by the end of 2007.

So, in the end he was only right about one thing -- eventually there would be a recession. What a shocking revelation.

[burmafrd]

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1861115,00.html

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1861251,00.html

Right from the MSM here is a pretty good swat to the doom and gloom liberals right from one of their own sources.

[JiggsCasey]

Actually the guy was wrong on two counts: (1) it hasn't been a major recession, and (2) it didn't begin until the 3rd quarter of 2008, when he predicted a recession would happen by the end of 2007.

So, in the end he was only right about one thing -- eventually there would be a recession. What a shocking revelation.

So, in all things "nothing to see here," you're going to give the man zero credit... Well, that makes sense... It's a tactic we've all come to expect time and time again from Bushies.

[burmafrd]

hey its Wack A Mole coming back for his hourly treatment!!

[Doomsday101]

It never ceases to amaze me how people arrogantly think that their brand of suffering is as bad as (or worse than) anyone has ever had it. Unemployment during the Great Depression was what? 31%? I think we're at roughly 6% today. So unless and until we hit at least 20% in the present day, talk to the hand.

I went to the Angus Barn last night. It's a restaurant where a party of 2 can expect to pay about $150 for their dinner. There was a 90 minute wait to get a table.

I agree. This is not like the depression not even close.

[MilesAustinforMVP]

I don't think it will be a depression because Obama won't let it be. He'll move swiftly for government intervention, so we can isolate the damage and not let it spread to other areas of the economy. The original post in this thread is right. It's all about the butterfly effect. The fall of housing prices is spreading to almost all sectors of the economy, but intervention by the government is going to isolate it and keep it from spreading. That's why Obama can't assume office soon enough.

[theogt]

I don't think it will be a depression because Obama won't let it be. He'll move swiftly for government intervention, so we can isolate the damage and not let it spread to other areas of the economy. The original post in this thread is right. It's all about the butterfly effect. The fall of housing prices is spreading to almost all sectors of the economy, but intervention by the government is going to isolate it and keep it from spreading. That's why Obama can't assume office soon enough.The credit crisis is, for the most part, stemmed. It just takes time to heal now. Obama just needs to worry about effective economic stimulus.

[VCDefectors]

The credit crisis is, for the most part, stemmed. It just takes time to heal now. Obama just needs to worry about effective economic stimulus.

I've now read some of your arguments. From what I've seen so far, you've quoted GDP figures and other quarterly data to make a case that we are (to paraphrase) in a light recession that will be over within the next calendar year. If I misread this in any way, let me know.

I am not as optimistic because of the eroding global financial markets, the rising government debt, and eroding consumer demand. I believe, as some price indicators suggest (housing, oil), that we are entering a deflationary period. It that is the case, it will take a lot longer than one calendar year for the global economy to recover.

I still stand by my assertion that 20% unemployment in the U.S. is a strong possibility. But I will give you that my initial math figures were wrong. As of October, the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 6.5% with appx 10.1 million officially being out of work. As you probably know, official unemployment numbers don't account for under-employment and people who have given up looking for work.

For the economy to rise to 20% unemployment, 21 million more people would have to become officially unemployed. While that sounds almost impossible, I have already heard a few economists discuss the potential of two things that worry me. First, if the auto industry fails (and they still might even with a bailout), that would have an impact of 2-3 million jobs. Then there are other multiplier effects that could affect even more jobs. Also, I don't believe we are anywhere near the bottom of these job cuts being announced across the board. Almost every industry now is being affected. What's most alarming to me is the rate at which these major cuts are being announced.

[theogt]

I've now read some of your arguments. From what I've seen so far, you've quoted GDP figures and other quarterly data to make a case that we are (to paraphrase) in a light recession that will be over within the next calendar year. If I misread this in any way, let me know.

I am not as optimistic because of the eroding global financial markets, the rising government debt, and eroding consumer demand. I believe, as some price indicators suggest (housing, oil), that we are entering a deflationary period. It that is the case, it will take a lot longer than one calendar year for the global economy to recover.

I still stand by my assertion that 20% unemployment in the U.S. is a strong possibility. But I will give you that my initial math figures were wrong. As of October, the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 6.5% with appx 10.1 million officially being out of work. As you probably know, official unemployment numbers don't account for under-employment and people who have given up looking for work.

For the economy to rise to 20% unemployment, 21 million more people would have to become officially unemployed. While that sounds almost impossible, I have already heard a few economists discuss the potential of two things that worry me. First, if the auto industry fails (and they still might even with a bailout), that would have an impact of 2-3 million jobs. Then there are other multiplier effects that could affect even more jobs. Also, I don't believe we are anywhere near the bottom of these job cuts being announced across the board. Almost every industry now is being affected. What's most alarming to me is the rate at which these major cuts are being announced.I thought I asked you to stop already. You know that awkward feeling you get when you watch someone fall flat on their face? Yeah, just stop.

[JiggsCasey]

I thought I asked you to stop already. You know that awkward feeling you get when you watch someone fall flat on their face? Yeah, just stop.

Wow. Interesting strategy.

Anyhow, does this all seem like just a 12-month downturn to you?

[Bach]

We wouldn't be in such dire straits to begin with if the Dems hadn't pushed to make it possible for anyone with a breath to get a loan the last 10 years.

[JiggsCasey]

We wouldn't be in such dire straits to begin with if the Dems hadn't pushed to make it possible for anyone with a breath to get a loan the last 10 years.

Bush's Ownership Society was a Dem initiative? Who knew?

[VCDefectors]

I thought I asked you to stop already. You know that awkward feeling you get when you watch someone fall flat on their face? Yeah, just stop.

Theo, get something straight. You are no economic guru, anymore than anybody else here. Just give your opinion, keep the backhand to yourself or just ****. Simple.

[arglebargle]

We wouldn't be in such dire straits to begin with if the Dems hadn't pushed to make it possible for anyone with a breath to get a loan the last 10 years.

And that meshes with the statistics showing that 80%+ of the bad mortgage assets were in private, unregulated hands how?

[theogt]

Theo, get something straight. You are no economic guru, anymore than anybody else here. Just give your opinion, keep the backhand to yourself or just ****. Simple.I don't pretend to be. But I don't just throw around numbers not knowing what they mean either. It just irks me to all hell when people talk about something authoritatively when they're still figuring out how it all works.

[MilesAustinforMVP]

I don't pretend to be. But I don't just throw around numbers not knowing what they mean either. It just irks me to all hell when people talk about something authoritatively when they're still figuring out how it all works.
People in glass houses should not throw bricks

[VCDefectors]

I don't pretend to be. But I don't just throw around numbers not knowing what they mean either. It just irks me to all hell when people talk about something authoritatively when they're still figuring out how it all works.

That's fair enough. A little honesty is all I ask. And I do hope that you are right about this issue, BTW. 8-9% unemployment would definitely be a lot easier to overcome.

[theogt]

That's fair enough. A little honesty is all I ask. And I do hope that you are right about this issue, BTW. 8-9% unemployment would definitely be a lot easier to overcome.FYI, your comment that brought my criticism was that 2-3 million additional jobs lost would result in unemployment shooting to 20%. That would mean that 3 million workers accounted for roughly 14% of our workforce, which would make our workforce around 21 million people -- a little small.

[VCDefectors]

FYI, your comment that brought my criticism was that 2-3 million additional jobs lost would result in unemployment shooting to 20%. That would mean that 3 million workers accounted for roughly 14% of our workforce, which would make our workforce around 21 million people -- a little small.

I already addressed my math inaccuracies in this regard. I did, in fact take the time to look up data and confirmed that 31 million people would need to be classified as unemployed for us to hit the 20% mark. As of last October, the number stands at 10.1 million or 6.5%. I still think 20% in 2009 is a strong possibility. But I hope I am wrong.

[burmafrd]

You and jiggs HOPE for 20 million unemployed. That is the real sad thing.

[burmafrd]

Oh, and Argle, who started all the easy credit that got the snowball rolling downhill?

[VCDefectors]

You and jiggs HOPE for 20 million unemployed. That is the real sad thing.

See this hand?

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2030/2302646568_697f45e8de.jpg

Go talk to it.

[burmafrd]

Go on admit it- we all know you want it really bad so that your messiah can then do whatever he wants.

[VCDefectors]

Go on admit it- we all know you want it really bad so that your messiah can then do whatever he wants.

He will be your president too, so say a prayer and let His light feel your heart with joy. If you are really nice, he will spit a fortune cookie at you with winning Powerball numbers.

[Bach]

Go on admit it- we all know you want it really bad so that your messiah can then do whatever he wants.

We have a winner!

That's the only reason they want to sell us on the idea we are ready to go through another Depression. Obama and his cohorts in Congress want to be able to pull another FDR and do whatever they want. Even if he gets booted out in '12 most of what happens between now and then will be irreversible.

[arglebargle]

We have a winner!

That's the only reason they want to sell us on the idea we are ready to go through another Depression. Obama and his cohorts in Congress want to be able to pull another FDR and do whatever they want. Even if he gets booted out in '12 most of what happens between now and then will be irreversible.

You mean, sorta like the Perpetual War Presidential Powers grab that has happened recently? You had better hope that Obama really is moderate and cares a great deal about the USA, because given the recent precedents, and the powers that have been usurped or otherwise flowed to the president, he really can do a whole lot.....good or bad.


'Cause Rove never planned on this. Where has his beautiful hegemony gone???

[JiggsCasey]

We have a winner!

That's the only reason they want to sell us on the idea we are ready to go through another Depression. Obama and his cohorts in Congress want to be able to pull another FDR and do whatever they want. Even if he gets booted out in '12 most of what happens between now and then will be irreversible.

This is just about the most retarded rationalization I've ever seen in the history of blog forums.

Especially that last part, and considering how much is irreversible from the last 8 years of hell.

[Sasquatch]

You mean, sorta like the Perpetual War Presidential Powers grab that has happened recently? You had better hope that Obama really is moderate and cares a great deal about the USA, because given the recent precedents, and the powers that have been usurped or otherwise flowed to the president, he really can do a whole lot.....good or bad.


'Cause Rove never planned on this. Where has his beautiful hegemony gone???

It's unfortunate that our talking heads in the media didn't think to ask any of the presidential candidates their views on the limits of presidential powers. I, for one, would have been very interested to hear the responses.

[Bach]

This is just about the most retarded rationalization I've ever seen in the history of blog forums.

Yeah, it is pretty retarded how they are trying to sell us on another Depression.

Especially that last part, and considering how much is irreversible from the last 8 years of hell.


8 years of hell? How so?

[JiggsCasey]

Yeah, it is pretty retarded how they are trying to sell us on another Depression.

Sell you? No one's trying to sell anything to you. If you wanna live in denial, go ahead. And while you're it, pump your life savings into the stock market. THere's some really "good deals" right now. Heck, when everything "turns around" as you people are so convinced, you'll make a killing.

We have a monetary system that is based on a fraudulent ponzi scheme and the mirage of "infinite growth." We're $trillions in debt, our dollar is falling faster than the Packers' season, and we don't produce much of anything anymore. We have a treasury that just prints up billions of dollars on a whim that aren't represented by a thing. We've wasted $2 trillion in a desperate police occupation abroad in order to steal 11% of the world's remaining crude.

Face it: Milton Friedman-Chicago School "free market" economics has failed this country... Into catastrophe. ... It bilked a half trillion from the Russians in the mid-90s, and left them starving... and it's doing the same thing here in America, only much worse... We'll see come Spring... And there's little Obama can do about it, though he'll undoubtedly receive the blame.

8 years of hell? How so?

This site likely doesn't have the bandwidth to display the list of examples. But if you still don't get it, at this point, you never will.

Worst president of our lifetimes... Controlled by the most sinister Think Tank and Administration is U.S. history... Period... end of story.

[burmafrd]

No actually its pretty much the end of YOUR story.
Have you not yet figured out how many now have you on ignore?

[bbgun]

Okay, now I'm worried.

Times of London:

12% of American millionaires are dumping their mistresses this Christmas due to the credit crunch.

The newspaper cited sociologist Russ Alan Prince who said he surveyed 191 multi-millionaires and found they were dumping their honey to save money.

“These people are largely workaholics who see their lovers about once a month, and pay a fortune in rent, spa treatments and maybe five weeks of vacations a year for the privilege,” he told the Times. “At a time when the average American family income is $48,000 a year, they are questioning the value of such investments.”

While he did not talk to the mistresses, Prince said: “They know that some of their mistresses are smart, they follow their company share prices in the newspapers, and will bail out if he does badly.”

[arglebargle]

Now that's an unusual economic predicktor.....

But probably pretty accurate.

The real smarties cashed out earlier and are on some foreign beach, interviewing new mistresses.....