Updated draft order...

[Portland Fanatic]

1 San Francisco 1-11 .479
2 Miami 2-10 .557
3 Cleveland 3-9 .599
4 Arizona 4-8 .453
5 New Orleans 4-8 .474
6 Tennessee 4-8 .490
7 Washington 4-8 .516
8 Oakland 4-8 .542
9 Kansas City 4-8 .547
10 Tampa Bay 5-7 .445
11 Chicago 5-7 .484
12 Carolina 5-7 .495
13 Houston 5-7 .510
14 Detroit 5-7 .521
15 Dallas 5-7 .526
16 San Diego (from New York Giants**) 5-7 .542
17 Seattle 6-6 .443
18 St. Louis 6-6 .474
19 Dallas (from Buffalo*) 6-6 .510
20 Jacksonville 6-6 .526
21 Cincinnati 6-6 .552
22 Denver 7-5 .464
23 Minnesota 7-5 .484
24 Green Bay 7-5 .489
25 Baltimore 7-5 .552
26 Atlanta 9-3 .412
27 San Diego 9-3 .464
28 Indianapolis 9-3 .500
29 New York Jets 9-3 .500
30 New England 11-1 .474
31 Philadelphia 11-1 .469
32 Pittsburgh 11-1 .495

Couple things to think about...I bet/hope Miami, AZ, maybe Cleveland, and Tenn (based on rumors of McNair retiring) will go after QB's this year. Let's hope they make a dog fight at the top of the draft pushing someone like Johnson, Williams, Rolle, Brooks, Wright down to us at #15...it's fun speculating.

[TheHustler]

Thanks for the update.

[Paniolo22]

The good news about this is if you look at where we are, we own the tie breaker over everyone except the Giants. Even if we tie the Seahawks, we would get the TB over them. If we do our job and win what we should win, there is a good chance our 9-7 or 8-8 would be the one that gets in. The g-men are looking out of it, and if we tie the Panthers or Bucs, we hold the conference tie breaker. We also have the head to head w/ the bears. We are actually in control of our own destiny. (If rams, giants and seahawks lose 1)

[jobberone]

The good news about this is if you look at where we are, we own the tie breaker over everyone except the Giants. Even if we tie the Seahawks, we would get the TB over them. If we do our job and win what we should win, there is a good chance our 9-7 or 8-8 would be the one that gets in. The g-men are looking out of it, and if we tie the Panthers or Bucs, we hold the conference tie breaker. We also have the head to head w/ the bears. We are actually in control of our own destiny. (If rams, giants and seahawks lose 1)

Thanks. Now to beat the Saints. They are not a gimme. I can't wait just to watch Julius.

[SALADIN]

Think the 9'ers aren't looking for a QB.

Rattay and Dorsey or Leinart, Rogers?

[Portland Fanatic]

Think the 9'ers aren't looking for a QB.

Rattay and Dorsey or Leinart, Rogers?

Rattay is not that bad...that's why I did not include SF...he needs lots of help.

Never know though...would only help us by pushing a player we want down.

[Hostile]

1 San Francisco 1-11 .479
2 Miami 2-10 .557
3 Cleveland 3-9 .599
4 Arizona 4-8 .453
5 New Orleans 4-8 .474
6 Tennessee 4-8 .490
7 Washington 4-8 .516
8 Oakland 4-8 .542
9 Kansas City 4-8 .547
10 Tampa Bay 5-7 .445
11 Chicago 5-7 .484
12 Carolina 5-7 .495
13 Houston 5-7 .510
14 Detroit 5-7 .521
15 Dallas 5-7 .526
16 San Diego (from New York Giants**) 5-7 .542
17 Seattle 6-6 .443
18 St. Louis 6-6 .474
19 Dallas (from Buffalo*) 6-6 .510
20 Jacksonville 6-6 .526
21 Cincinnati 6-6 .552
22 Denver 7-5 .464
23 Minnesota 7-5 .484
24 Green Bay 7-5 .489
25 Baltimore 7-5 .552
26 Atlanta 9-3 .412
27 San Diego 9-3 .464
28 Indianapolis 9-3 .500
29 New York Jets 9-3 .500
30 New England 11-1 .474
31 Philadelphia 11-1 .469
32 Pittsburgh 11-1 .495

Couple things to think about...I bet/hope Miami, AZ, maybe Cleveland, and Tenn (based on rumors of McNair retiring) will go after QB's this year. Let's hope they make a dog fight at the top of the draft pushing someone like Johnson, Williams, Rolle, Brooks, Wright down to us at #15...it's fun speculating.
http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=195085#post195085

I triple checked my math. Did find a pretty glaring error, but not near as many math errors as that list has. Some of their draft order is off because their calculations are off.

By all means, if anyone comes up with a different calculation I will check again.

This is the correct draft order as it stands right now.

1. 49ers, 1-11, .465

2. Dolphins, 2-10, .549

3. Browns, 3-9, .646

4. Saints, 4-8, .465

5. Cardinals, 4-8, .479

6. Redskins, 4-8, .521

7. Titans, 4-8, .528

8t. Raiders, 4-8, .563 * Coin Flip

8t. Chiefs, 4-8, .563 * Coin Flip

10. Buccaneers, 5-7, .444

11. Bears, 5-7, .486

12. Panthers, 5-7, .493

13t. Giants, 5-7, .521 (Chargers own pick.) * Coin Flip

13t. Texans, 5-7, .521 * Coin Flip

15t. Cowboys, 5-7, .535 * Coin Flip

15t. Lions, 5-7, .535 * Coin Flip

17. Seahawks, 6-6, .389

18. Rams, 6-6, .431

19. Bengals, 6-6, .507

20. Bills, 6-6, .535 (Cowboys own pick.)

21. Jaguars, 6-6, .563

22. Broncos, 7-5, .486

23. Packers, 7-5, .493

24. Vikings, 7-5, .500

25. Ravens, 7-5, .549

26. Falcons, 9-3, .417

27. Jets, 9-3, .431

28. Colts, 9-3, .472

29. Chargers, 9-3, .479

30. Steelers, 11-1, .472

31. Eagles, 11-1, .479

32. Patriots, 11-1, .507

[Portland Fanatic]

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=195085#post195085

I triple checked my math. Did find a pretty glaring error, but not near as many math errors as that list has. Some of their draft order is off because their calculations are off.

By all means, if anyone comes up with a different calculation I will check again.

This is the correct draft order as it stands right now.

1. 49ers, 1-11, .465

2. Dolphins, 2-10, .549

3. Browns, 3-9, .646

4. Saints, 4-8, .465

5. Cardinals, 4-8, .479

6. Redskins, 4-8, .521

7. Titans, 4-8, .528

8t. Raiders, 4-8, .563 * Coin Flip

8t. Chiefs, 4-8, .563 * Coin Flip

10. Buccaneers, 5-7, .444

11. Bears, 5-7, .486

12. Panthers, 5-7, .493

13t. Giants, 5-7, .521 (Chargers own pick.) * Coin Flip

13t. Texans, 5-7, .521 * Coin Flip

15t. Cowboys, 5-7, .535 * Coin Flip

15t. Lions, 5-7, .535 * Coin Flip

17. Seahawks, 6-6, .389

18. Rams, 6-6, .431

19. Bengals, 6-6, .507

20. Bills, 6-6, .535 (Cowboys own pick.)

21. Jaguars, 6-6, .563

22. Broncos, 7-5, .486

23. Packers, 7-5, .493

24. Vikings, 7-5, .500

25. Ravens, 7-5, .549

26. Falcons, 9-3, .417

27. Jets, 9-3, .431

28. Colts, 9-3, .472

29. Chargers, 9-3, .479

30. Steelers, 11-1, .472

31. Eagles, 11-1, .479

32. Patriots, 11-1, .507

Truth be told I stole it from another website...dang bums...gave me bad info.

[Dale]

Thanks. Now to beat the Saints. They are not a gimme. I can't wait just to watch Julius.

I hope we play them right. Pound it with Julius, and pound it some more. Once they start committing to stopping the run, throw some conservative passes to Keyshawn and hit Witten in the seam. Then pound it with Julius even more.

They've been trying to stop the run all season, but they've been unable to. Clearly, whatever game plans they have designed to commit to defending the run have been unsuccessful. Here's to another Saints' failure.

Here are some of the stats from the runners they have faced this year:

Derrick Blaylock, Kansas City: 33 for 186, 1 TD
Reuben Droughns, Denver: 28 for 166, 1 TD
Nick Goings, Carolina: 36 for 122, 1 TD
Shaun Alexander, New Orleans: 28 for 135, 2 TDs
Emmitt Smith, Arizona: 21 for 127, 1 TD
Mewelde Moore, Minnesota: 15 for 109
Kevan Barlow, San Francisco: 20 for 114, 2 TDs

[SALADIN]

Rattay is not that bad...that's why I did not include SF...he needs lots of help.

Never know though...would only help us by pushing a player we want down.

Not that bad QB's don't win Championships. You think if they had a choice between not that bad and Rogers or Leinart that they wouldn't chose one of the latter?

btw, he is pretty bad

[jobberone]

I hope we play them right. Pound it with Julius, and pound it some more. snip

Yeah but I hope they pound it to the left more. :D

[zagnut]

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=195085#post195085

I triple checked my math. Did find a pretty glaring error, but not near as many math errors as that list has. Some of their draft order is off because their calculations are off.

By all means, if anyone comes up with a different calculation I will check again.

This is the correct draft order as it stands right now.

1. 49ers, 1-11, .465

2. Dolphins, 2-10, .549

3. Browns, 3-9, .646

4. Saints, 4-8, .465

5. Cardinals, 4-8, .479

6. Redskins, 4-8, .521

7. Titans, 4-8, .528

8t. Raiders, 4-8, .563 * Coin Flip

8t. Chiefs, 4-8, .563 * Coin Flip

10. Buccaneers, 5-7, .444

11. Bears, 5-7, .486

12. Panthers, 5-7, .493

13t. Giants, 5-7, .521 (Chargers own pick.) * Coin Flip

13t. Texans, 5-7, .521 * Coin Flip

15t. Cowboys, 5-7, .535 * Coin Flip

15t. Lions, 5-7, .535 * Coin Flip

17. Seahawks, 6-6, .389

18. Rams, 6-6, .431

19. Bengals, 6-6, .507

20. Bills, 6-6, .535 (Cowboys own pick.)

21. Jaguars, 6-6, .563

22. Broncos, 7-5, .486

23. Packers, 7-5, .493

24. Vikings, 7-5, .500

25. Ravens, 7-5, .549

26. Falcons, 9-3, .417

27. Jets, 9-3, .431

28. Colts, 9-3, .472

29. Chargers, 9-3, .479

30. Steelers, 11-1, .472

31. Eagles, 11-1, .479

32. Patriots, 11-1, .507

I think I know where the difference in the calculations is, but I honestly could not find the answer to which one is right. I posted this back in week 10 when it was easy to figure out. I should probably do the math before posting this. They may just be wrong.

THE QUESTION:
In figuring strength of schedule, do you include or omit the win or loss in the opponent's schedule that refers to your own team?

If the win or loss is included, your Strength of Schedule and draft order is correct. If it is omitted, the parent post's order might be correct. For instance, if omitting wins or losses against one's own team, Minnesota would have 6 wins instead of 7 for the purpose of figuring SoS, because one of the wins is against Dallas.

Also, I think there's an intermediate step before coin flip tie breakers. Are you including that? I think it's conference/division record, whichever's more applicable.

[zagnut]

I think I know where the difference in the calculations is, but I honestly could not find the answer to which one is right. I posted this back in week 10 when it was easy to figure out. I should probably do the math before posting this. They may just be wrong.

Okay. I did the math for our own schedule. Neither number given above for Dallas matches what I came up with. Each one is about a .005 difference. (0.526 vs 0.535)

I took our schedule, subtracted wins or losses from our opponent depending on whether Dallas won or lost, and it adds up to 70 wins and 62 losses. Total number of games is 132. 70 wins divided by 132 games is 0.530303.

I understand how Hos gets his number -- 77 wins divided by 144 games. Don't know how the original post gets there's. Am I missing something?

[Nors]

If an 8-8 team makes the playoffs and wins the Super Bowl do they draft last?

Does playoff progression come into play? If Dallas and Buffalo make playoffs could we be looking at two picks in the 20's?

[zagnut]

If an 8-8 team makes the playoffs and wins the Super Bowl do they draft last?

Does playoff progression come into play? If Dallas and Buffalo make playoffs could we be looking at two picks in the 20's?

Yes and Yes. If we won or played in the Super Bowl, we would draft 31 or 32. If we make the playoffs at 8-8 and lose the first game to finish 8-9, we could draft behind an AFC team than finished with a better record but didn't make the playoffs. It's conceivable a 10-6 AFC team that missed the playoffs could draft before us if we made the playoffs. :eek:

[Bobo]

I'm gonna be suprised if McNair actually does retire. If he does, I'd still be somewhat suprised if the Titans take a QB in the 1st. They believe Billy Volek can be a starter, and I'd bet that stick with that 1st before taking a QB from a supposedly weak QB class.

Some rumors I've heard is they are watching Texas closely for DJ or Benson.

[Noone]

A non-playoff team that goes 8-8 drafts BEFORE a playoff 8-8.

Strength of schedule is first priority
to break ties with Super Bowl winner picking last
and Runner-up second to last.

The teams that exit the playoffs first rank lower than the ones who exit later.

8-8...non play-off
8-8....loose first round
8-8....win first round.

[Hostile]

Okay. I did the math for our own schedule. Neither number given above for Dallas matches what I came up with. Each one is about a .005 difference. (0.526 vs 0.535)

I took our schedule, subtracted wins or losses from our opponent depending on whether Dallas won or lost, and it adds up to 70 wins and 62 losses. Total number of games is 132. 70 wins divided by 132 games is 0.530303.

I understand how Hos gets his number -- 77 wins divided by 144 games. Don't know how the original post gets there's. Am I missing something?
Opponent's winning percentage is calculated by the total number of wins by your opponent divided by the total number of games the opponents have played.

Vikings 7-5
Browns 3-9
Redsksins 4-8
Giants 5-7
Steelers 11-1
Packers 7-5
Lions 5-7
Bengals 6-6
Eagles 11-1
Ravens 7-5
Bears 5-7
Seahawks 6-6

12 opponents and each have played 12 games. That means the total number of games played is 144.

Now you add up the total number of wins and it comes to 77.

77 wins divided by 144 total games is .535. There is no number of wins divided by 144 that will compute to .526.

75/144 = .521
76/144 = .528

I created a program in Microsoft Excel that does all of my calculations for me automatically. All I do is enter a win or a loss and the program automatically does all the calculations.

Each week before the games start I change the field by 1 number so that the calculations remain current. If I could ever figure out how to make it automatically assign the draft order I'd love it. I've thought very seriously about putting this program on a web site so people can access it. Maybe one of these days.

[TheEnigma]

The good news about this is if you look at where we are, we own the tie breaker over everyone except the Giants. Even if we tie the Seahawks, we would get the TB over them. If we do our job and win what we should win, there is a good chance our 9-7 or 8-8 would be the one that gets in. The g-men are looking out of it, and if we tie the Panthers or Bucs, we hold the conference tie breaker. We also have the head to head w/ the bears. We are actually in control of our own destiny. (If rams, giants and seahawks lose 1)

We hold the tie breaker against everybody, including three or more team ties, except for the Giants unless we beat them, Carolina if a certain scenario goes down, and if we are tied with Seattle and Chicago or Detroit. In the two later cases, it would come down to Strength of Victory, and I don't know how to figure that.

[TheEnigma]

I hope we play them right. Pound it with Julius, and pound it some more. Once they start committing to stopping the run, throw some conservative passes to Keyshawn and hit Witten in the seam. Then pound it with Julius even more.

They've been trying to stop the run all season, but they've been unable to. Clearly, whatever game plans they have designed to commit to defending the run have been unsuccessful. Here's to another Saints' failure.

Here are some of the stats from the runners they have faced this year:

Derrick Blaylock, Kansas City: 33 for 186, 1 TD
Reuben Droughns, Denver: 28 for 166, 1 TD
Nick Goings, Carolina: 36 for 122, 1 TD
Shaun Alexander, New Orleans: 28 for 135, 2 TDs
Emmitt Smith, Arizona: 21 for 127, 1 TD
Mewelde Moore, Minnesota: 15 for 109
Kevan Barlow, San Francisco: 20 for 114, 2 TDs


How many of you would agree with me that Julius is better than all but 1 or 2 people on that list? That is of course in their current form.

[zagnut]

Opponent's winning percentage is calculated by the total number of wins by your opponent divided by the total number of games the opponents have played.

Vikings 7-5
Browns 3-9
Redsksins 4-8
Giants 5-7
Steelers 11-1
Packers 7-5
Lions 5-7
Bengals 6-6
Eagles 11-1
Ravens 7-5
Bears 5-7
Seahawks 6-6

12 opponents and each have played 12 games. That means the total number of games played is 144.

Now you add up the total number of wins and it comes to 77.

77 wins divided by 144 total games is .535. There is no number of wins divided by 144 that will compute to .526.

75/144 = .521
76/144 = .528

I created a program in Microsoft Excel that does all of my calculations for me automatically. All I do is enter a win or a loss and the program automatically does all the calculations.

Each week before the games start I change the field by 1 number so that the calculations remain current. If I could ever figure out how to make it automatically assign the draft order I'd love it. I've thought very seriously about putting this program on a web site so people can access it. Maybe one of these days.

I figured out how they (Great Blue North) are getting their numbers. They are using the entire season -- all 16 teams on the schedule using the current records -- whereas the draft order you've calculated is focusing on the games that have been played and will calculate future games as they come.

Their calculation sees 101 wins divided by 192 games = 0.526

In their calculation, each week a team's wins goes up by 16 or less, and the number of games goes up by 16. Pretty small fluctuation. Their draft order could end up being closer to what it will look like at the end of the season.

[Hostile]

I figured out how they (Great Blue North) are getting their numbers. They are using the entire season -- all 16 teams on the schedule using the current records -- whereas the draft order you've calculated is focusing on the games that have been played and will calculate future games as they come.

Their calculation sees 101 wins divided by 192 games = 0.526

In their calculation, each week a team's wins goes up by 16 or less, and the number of games goes up by 16. Pretty small fluctuation. Their draft order could end up being closer to what it will look like at the end of the season.
My program calculates the entire season as well and they are still off on most teams. They happen to be right on Dallas.