Doomsday101
12-17-2004, 12:08 PM
Believe it or not, there's only 75 days remaining until the frenzied shopping season cranks to life, and no, we're not talking about holiday gift-giving. Unless, of course, you happen to think that the highly anticipated first day of the NFL's free agency period feels a bit like unwrapping presents on Christmas morning.
Between now and March 2, the landscape of the league will go through plenty of changes, with names being subtracted from the ranks of potential free agents and contract extensions being awarded. But for now, here are the five players who we think would get the most business if they set up shop and started entertaining offers on free agency's opening day:
1. Edgerrin James, running back, Indianapolis -- Let's see now. The Colts have given the big dough to that Peyton Manning guy (seven years, $98 million), and struck a deal last week with stud receiver Marvin Harrison (seven years, $67 million). So which one of the Triplets hasn't been paid yet? That would be James, who currently leads the NFL in rushing with 1,395 yards and will be seeking his share of the loot.
Conventional wisdom says the Colts would be unwise to re-sign James and tie up so much of their salary cap on offense -- already they devote a higher percentage of their cap to that side of the ball than anyone else in the league. Especially since James' money could buy the Colts two or three quality players on defense, where Indianapolis faces the biggest challenge to its Super Bowl aspirations.
But team owner Jim Irsay is on record saying he can afford to retain all three of his glamour players on offense, and the Colts have the option of applying the franchise tag to James at the price of about $8 million in 2005. But should they? When is enough, enough on offense? Wouldn't Indy be better served to supplement its defense for once, and get by with any number of serviceable but less than spectacular running backs?
And here are the other factors that enter into the James decision: No matter what he might say for public consumption, everyone in the NFL knows James hates playing on artificial turf, is no fan of living for half the year in Indianapolis, and would love to play for Miami, where he attended college and resides in the offseason. Last we heard, the Dolphins could use a running back.
2. Drew Brees, San Diego, quarterback -- Brees certainly wasn't a preseason favorite to be on this list, because he wasn't even expected to be on the field after the Chargers obtained No. 4 pick Philip Rivers in a draft-day trade with the Giants. But a funny thing happened on the way to Brees' demotion. He caught fire starting in about Week 4, and now the soon-to-be-playoff-bound Chargers have a nice little problem on their hands.
What now appears likely is that San Diego will franchise Brees to the tune of about $9 million in 2005, and either explore trade options or retain both him and Rivers for at least one more year. There's no way given the Chargers' shaky recent quarterback history that San Diego can gamble solely on Rivers at this point and allow Brees to bolt. And it didn't hurt his standing in San Diego when star running back LaDainian Tomlinson came out last week and said he and the rest of his teammates want to see Brees as the Chargers starter in 2005.
Coming off his standout 2003 season, Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck looked like he'd be the biggest quarterbacking name in the potential free-agent pool. But with Hasselbeck regressing this season, and Brees throwing up 23 touchdowns, just six interceptions and a 102.7 rating, the fourth-year Charger would clearly be the most sought-after arm in the QB market.
3. Shaun Alexander, Seattle, running back -- What is it exactly that people don't like about Alexander? Critics say he runs a little soft at times and he can't be counted on to get the tough yards. But I say the guy's the Cris Carter of running backs: All he does is score touchdowns. In the past four seasons, Alexander has rushed for 56 touchdowns and scored 10 more via receptions. That's 66 touchdowns in 61 games, more than anyone in the NFL over that span except for Kansas City's Priest Holmes.
"The guy piles up touchdowns and yards, at least when (Seattle head coach) Mike Holmgren remembers to stick with his running game,'' said one league personnel man. "Alexander's numbers are great. You can't ignore the production.''
Not only is Alexander second in the league in rushing with 1,385 yards this season, with a gaudy 4.9-yard average carry, he has gained 5,313 yards since the beginning of 2001, and topped 1,300 yards three times in four years. He catches the ball out of the backfield (162 receptions since 2001) and rarely fumbles, losing only 10 in his first five NFL seasons. What's not to like?
Alexander may not make it to the unrestricted market, because Seattle will franchise one of their three big-name free agents -- Alexander, Hasselbeck and offensive tackle Walter Jones. Early indications are the Seahawks won't use their tag on Jones as they have in repeatedly, and Hasselbeck's disappointing season doesn't seem to warrant a franchise-level quarterback salary.
4. John Abraham, New York Jets, defensive end -- The most talented player in the Jets defensive lineup, Abraham has developed into one of the game's top five pass-rushing ends. He's got difference-making speed off the edge, a top-notch motor and he can be moved all over the field to great effectiveness. Of the Jets' celebrated four first-round picks in 2000 -- Bill Parcells' last draft with the team -- Abraham has been the most consistent and productive player.
Despite missing New York's most recent game, at Pittsburgh, Abraham is tied for eighth in the league in sacks with 9 1/2, and he has 38 1/2 sacks in his past 51 games -- from the start of 2001 on. Opponents now regularly start their game-planning against the Jets by trying to neutralize Abraham, but his combination of speed and size puts him in a class with Dwight Freeney, Julius Peppers and Simeon Rice among the NFL's finest speed rushers.
With Abraham as the centerpiece of new Jets coordinator Donnie Henderson's unit, New York's defense has dramatically improved this year, ranking seventh overall (288.6) in yards allowed, and second in points surrendered (14.8). And Abraham isn't just a pass rusher who ignores run defense. He can play the run effectively as well, and New York this season is sixth in rushing defense, giving up 101.3 yards per game.
5. Plaxico Burress, Pittsburgh, receiver -- Cincinnati's T.J. Houshmandzadeh (58 catches for 800 yards) and Carolina's Muhsin Muhammad (69 for 1,060 yards, 11 touchdowns) are free-agent-to-bes with better numbers, but neither one would draw the attention or command the salary that Burress would if he makes it to the open bidding process.
Burress has missed the past three games due to injury, and with the Steelers running the ball so effectively this season, his statistics are a ho-hum 32 catches for 601 yards and four touchdowns. But he has an eye-popping 18.8-yard average catch, and before his injury was just starting to develop a real rapport with Pittsburgh rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
At 6-5, 226 pounds, Burress has the size that NFL teams drool over. Though the underrated Hines Ward remains Pittsburgh's go-to receiver, Burress, with his ability to tower over and out-jump most every cornerback, is a rare talent who Pittsburgh no doubt wants to retain. Roethlisberger already seemed to be learning that on most routes he could throw it high and let Burress go up and get it, conjuring up shades of Randall Cunningham to Randy Moss in Minnesota in 1998.
Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/writers/don_banks/12/17/top5.free.agents/index.html?cnn=yes
Between now and March 2, the landscape of the league will go through plenty of changes, with names being subtracted from the ranks of potential free agents and contract extensions being awarded. But for now, here are the five players who we think would get the most business if they set up shop and started entertaining offers on free agency's opening day:
1. Edgerrin James, running back, Indianapolis -- Let's see now. The Colts have given the big dough to that Peyton Manning guy (seven years, $98 million), and struck a deal last week with stud receiver Marvin Harrison (seven years, $67 million). So which one of the Triplets hasn't been paid yet? That would be James, who currently leads the NFL in rushing with 1,395 yards and will be seeking his share of the loot.
Conventional wisdom says the Colts would be unwise to re-sign James and tie up so much of their salary cap on offense -- already they devote a higher percentage of their cap to that side of the ball than anyone else in the league. Especially since James' money could buy the Colts two or three quality players on defense, where Indianapolis faces the biggest challenge to its Super Bowl aspirations.
But team owner Jim Irsay is on record saying he can afford to retain all three of his glamour players on offense, and the Colts have the option of applying the franchise tag to James at the price of about $8 million in 2005. But should they? When is enough, enough on offense? Wouldn't Indy be better served to supplement its defense for once, and get by with any number of serviceable but less than spectacular running backs?
And here are the other factors that enter into the James decision: No matter what he might say for public consumption, everyone in the NFL knows James hates playing on artificial turf, is no fan of living for half the year in Indianapolis, and would love to play for Miami, where he attended college and resides in the offseason. Last we heard, the Dolphins could use a running back.
2. Drew Brees, San Diego, quarterback -- Brees certainly wasn't a preseason favorite to be on this list, because he wasn't even expected to be on the field after the Chargers obtained No. 4 pick Philip Rivers in a draft-day trade with the Giants. But a funny thing happened on the way to Brees' demotion. He caught fire starting in about Week 4, and now the soon-to-be-playoff-bound Chargers have a nice little problem on their hands.
What now appears likely is that San Diego will franchise Brees to the tune of about $9 million in 2005, and either explore trade options or retain both him and Rivers for at least one more year. There's no way given the Chargers' shaky recent quarterback history that San Diego can gamble solely on Rivers at this point and allow Brees to bolt. And it didn't hurt his standing in San Diego when star running back LaDainian Tomlinson came out last week and said he and the rest of his teammates want to see Brees as the Chargers starter in 2005.
Coming off his standout 2003 season, Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck looked like he'd be the biggest quarterbacking name in the potential free-agent pool. But with Hasselbeck regressing this season, and Brees throwing up 23 touchdowns, just six interceptions and a 102.7 rating, the fourth-year Charger would clearly be the most sought-after arm in the QB market.
3. Shaun Alexander, Seattle, running back -- What is it exactly that people don't like about Alexander? Critics say he runs a little soft at times and he can't be counted on to get the tough yards. But I say the guy's the Cris Carter of running backs: All he does is score touchdowns. In the past four seasons, Alexander has rushed for 56 touchdowns and scored 10 more via receptions. That's 66 touchdowns in 61 games, more than anyone in the NFL over that span except for Kansas City's Priest Holmes.
"The guy piles up touchdowns and yards, at least when (Seattle head coach) Mike Holmgren remembers to stick with his running game,'' said one league personnel man. "Alexander's numbers are great. You can't ignore the production.''
Not only is Alexander second in the league in rushing with 1,385 yards this season, with a gaudy 4.9-yard average carry, he has gained 5,313 yards since the beginning of 2001, and topped 1,300 yards three times in four years. He catches the ball out of the backfield (162 receptions since 2001) and rarely fumbles, losing only 10 in his first five NFL seasons. What's not to like?
Alexander may not make it to the unrestricted market, because Seattle will franchise one of their three big-name free agents -- Alexander, Hasselbeck and offensive tackle Walter Jones. Early indications are the Seahawks won't use their tag on Jones as they have in repeatedly, and Hasselbeck's disappointing season doesn't seem to warrant a franchise-level quarterback salary.
4. John Abraham, New York Jets, defensive end -- The most talented player in the Jets defensive lineup, Abraham has developed into one of the game's top five pass-rushing ends. He's got difference-making speed off the edge, a top-notch motor and he can be moved all over the field to great effectiveness. Of the Jets' celebrated four first-round picks in 2000 -- Bill Parcells' last draft with the team -- Abraham has been the most consistent and productive player.
Despite missing New York's most recent game, at Pittsburgh, Abraham is tied for eighth in the league in sacks with 9 1/2, and he has 38 1/2 sacks in his past 51 games -- from the start of 2001 on. Opponents now regularly start their game-planning against the Jets by trying to neutralize Abraham, but his combination of speed and size puts him in a class with Dwight Freeney, Julius Peppers and Simeon Rice among the NFL's finest speed rushers.
With Abraham as the centerpiece of new Jets coordinator Donnie Henderson's unit, New York's defense has dramatically improved this year, ranking seventh overall (288.6) in yards allowed, and second in points surrendered (14.8). And Abraham isn't just a pass rusher who ignores run defense. He can play the run effectively as well, and New York this season is sixth in rushing defense, giving up 101.3 yards per game.
5. Plaxico Burress, Pittsburgh, receiver -- Cincinnati's T.J. Houshmandzadeh (58 catches for 800 yards) and Carolina's Muhsin Muhammad (69 for 1,060 yards, 11 touchdowns) are free-agent-to-bes with better numbers, but neither one would draw the attention or command the salary that Burress would if he makes it to the open bidding process.
Burress has missed the past three games due to injury, and with the Steelers running the ball so effectively this season, his statistics are a ho-hum 32 catches for 601 yards and four touchdowns. But he has an eye-popping 18.8-yard average catch, and before his injury was just starting to develop a real rapport with Pittsburgh rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
At 6-5, 226 pounds, Burress has the size that NFL teams drool over. Though the underrated Hines Ward remains Pittsburgh's go-to receiver, Burress, with his ability to tower over and out-jump most every cornerback, is a rare talent who Pittsburgh no doubt wants to retain. Roethlisberger already seemed to be learning that on most routes he could throw it high and let Burress go up and get it, conjuring up shades of Randall Cunningham to Randy Moss in Minnesota in 1998.
Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/writers/don_banks/12/17/top5.free.agents/index.html?cnn=yes