Updated Draft Order

[Hostile]

I figure there is no way Miami beats New England tomorrow. If they do I will re-calculate this order. Season opponents % and weekly so far in ().

I also take into account the current playoff seedings and place the more likely order in {}.

There are 2 ties that would indicate coin flips except that there were head to head matchps to consider. Much like when we lost to Arizona a couple of years ago and thus held the higher selection.

2-12
1. San Francisco 49ers, .478 (.439)
2. Miami Dolphins, .554 (.577)

3-11
3. Cleveland Browns, .589 (.633)

4-10
4. Tennessee Titans, .509 (.515)

5-9
5. Arizona Cardinals, .451 (.454)
6. Chicago Bears, .473 (.474) * Lost to Tampa week #7.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, .473 (.485) * Defeated Chicago week #7
8. Washington Redskins, .487 (.490)
9. Detroit Lions, .513 (.541) * Lost to Dallas week #8
10. Dallas Cowboys, .513 (.536) * Defeated Detroit week #8.
11. New York Giants, .527 (.546) * San Diego owns selection
12. Oakland Raiders, .571 (.582)

6-8
13. New Orleans Saints, .478 (.459)
14. St. Louis Rams, .491 (.444)
15. {21} Carolina Panthers, .513 (.531) * Currently #2 NFC Wildcard, drops them.
16. {15} Houston Texans, .527 (.531)
17. {16} Cincinnati Bengals, .540 (.526)
18. {17} Kansas City Chiefs, .563 (.561)

7-7
19. {22} Seattle Seahawks, .446 (.429) * NFC West Leader, drops them.

8-6
20. {23} Green Bay Packers, .469 (.469) *NFC North Leader, drops them.
21. {24} Minnesota Vikings, .482 (.485) * Currently #1 NFC Wildcard, drops them.
22. {18} Denver Broncos, .496 (.480)
23. {19} Buffalo Bills, .504 (.500) * Dallas owns selection.
24. {20} Jacksonville Jaguars, .540 (.561)
25. Baltimore Ravens, .545 (.546) * Currently AFC #2 Wildcard.

10-4
26. New York Jets, .504 (.480) * Currently AFC #1 Wildcard.

11-3
27. Atlanta Falcons, .420 (.413) * NFC South Leader.
28. San Diego Chargers, .491 (.474) * AFC West Leader.
29. Indianapolis Colts, .511 (.480) * NFC South Leader.

13-1
30. Philadelphia Eagles, .438 (.439) * NFC East Leader.
31. New England Patriots, .478 (.485) * AFC East Leader.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers, .482 (.469) * AFC North Leader.

[thewivil]

Man, I hope our picks get a bit lower than that.

[Jimz31]

As long as we beat Washington and don't give Eli his first win, I'll be happy.

The draft is a crap-shoot anyway.

[Razz]

There are 2 ties that would indicate coin flips except that there were head to head matchps to consider. Much like when we lost to Arizona a couple of years ago and thus held the higher selection. Head to head is NOT a factor in the draft order. The situation came up with Dallas a couple years ago where a team we had lost to (San Diego) had the same record (5-11), but drafted higher than us because their strength of schedule (.484) was easier than ours (.515).

Edit: Ah, scratch that. I see what you did now, you applied the H2H tiebreaker because the strength of schedule was a tie. My bad. You are correct, sir.

[TheHustler]

thanks for the info.

[Rack Bauer]

Head to head is NOT a factor in the draft order. The situation came up with Dallas a couple years ago where a team we had lost to (San Diego) had the same record (5-11), but drafted higher than us because their strength of schedule (.484) was easier than ours (.515).

Edit: Ah, scratch that. I see what you did now, you applied the H2H tiebreaker because the strength of schedule was a tie. My bad. You are correct, sir.


Actually head to head IS a factor. I believe it started last year. The year we drafted Roy head 2 head didn't mean squat (sd beat us but still drafted higher despite having the same record).

But now it is a deciding factor (at least I'm pretty sure it is).

[Chuck 54]

As long as we beat Washington and don't give Eli his first win, I'll be happy.

The draft is a crap-shoot anyway.
I don't see any way this team can defeat the Redskins at this time, and frankly, I'll be satisfied either way since one is for bragging rights and the other moves us ahead of them in the draft.

[Sarge]

Man, I hope our picks get a bit lower than that.

If anything- they're going to get higher IMO.

[zagnut]

I'm bored, awake, and getting free premium cable channels tonight for some reason - some movie about a vampire who sucks the silicone out of pornstars' breasts. Thought I'd try projecting out the final two games for all the teams to see where we might end up. I'm assuming we start either Henson or Romo the final two games. Truthfully, if that happens, I see us going 0-2 for the final two games.

I think we end up with pick 6 with our own, but Arizona and Tennessee play weak teams and anything could happen. We could go up 1 or 2 spots. The Buffalo pick looks like 19 or 20.

Current Order (Record) W-L% { Wk 16 (W/L)}{ Wk 17 (W/L)}{ Final Record }
SANF (2-12) .478 { BUFF (L)}{ NE (L)}{ 2-14 }
MIAM (2-12) .554 { CLEV (W)}{ BALT (L)}{ 3-13 } D beats Cleveland
CLEV (3-11) .589 { MIAM (L)}{ HOU (L)}{ 3-13 }
TENN (4-10) .509 { DENV (W)}{ DETR (L)}{ 5-11 } Could win or lose either one.
ARIZ (5-9) .451 { SEA (L)}{ TBAY (L)}{ 5-11 }
CHIC (5-9) .473 { DETR (L)}{ GBAY (L)}{ 5-11 } Hutch fumbles a couple more games away.
TBAY (5-9) .473 { CARO (L)}{ ARIZ (W)}{ 6-10 }
WASH (5-9) .487 { DALL (W)}{ MINN (W)}{ 7-9 } Minny chokes down the stretch.
DETR (5-9) .513 { CHIC (W)}{ TENN (W)}{ 7-9 } Finishing strong, momentum for next yr.
DALL (5-9) .513 { WASH (L)}{ NYGN (L)}{ 5-11 } Start Romo or Drew, learning experience.
NYGN (5-9) .527 { CINC (L)}{ DALL (W)}{ 6-10 } Eli is turning the corner.
OAKL (5-9) .571 { KANS (L)}{ JACK (L)}{ 5-11 }
NWOR (6-8) .478 { ATL (L)}{ CARO (L)}{ 6-10 } Hard team to predict.
STLO (6-8) .491 { PHIL (L)}{ NYJT (L)}{ 6-10 }
KANS (6-8) .563 { OAKL (W)}{ SAND (L)}{ 7-9 }
HSTN (6-8) .527 { JACK (L)}{ CLEV (W)}{ 7-9 }
CINC (6-8) .540 { NYGN (W)}{ PHIL (L)}{ 7-9 }
CARO (6-8) .513 { TBAY (W)}{ ARIZ (W)}{ 8-8 } Playoffs
SEAT (7-7) .446 { ARIZ (W)}{ ATL (L)}{ 9-7 } Playoffs
GBAY (8-6) .469 { MINN (L)}{ CHIC (W)}{ 9-7 } Playoffs
MINN (8-6) .482 { GBAY (W)}{ WASH (L)}{ 9-7 } Playoffs
DENV (8-6) .496 { TENN (L)}{ INDY (L)}{ 8-8 }
BUFF (8-6) .504 { SANF (W)}{ PITT (W)}{ 10-6 } Lost vs Jacksonville
JACK (8-6) .540 { HOU (W)}{ OAKL (W)}{ 10-6 } Playoffs
BALT (8-6) .545 { PITT (L)}{ MIAM (W)}{ 9-7 }

Predicted Final Order
01. San Francisco (2-14)
02. Miami (3-13) .547
03. Cleveland (3-13) .590
04. Arizona (5-11) .461
05. Tennessee (5-11) .516
06. Dallas (5-11) .523
07. Chicago (5-11) .531
08. Oakland (5-11) .566
09. New Orleans (6-10) .457
10. Tampa Bay (6-10) .461
11. St. Louis (6-10) .496
12. San Diego* (6-10) .523
13. Washington (7-9) .481
14. Detroit (7-9) .512
15. Houston (7-9) .520
16. Cincinnati (7-9) .535
17. Kansas City (7-9) .547
18. Denver (8-8)
19. Baltimore (9-7)
20. Buffalo (10-6)

Pick 6: Mike Williams, WR, USC or Rod Wright, DT, Texas
Pick 20: Shawne Merriman, DE, Maryland or Carlos Rodgers, CB, Auburn

[VACowboy]

Nice work, Zag.

[jterrell]

Nice work, Zag.
Aye. Excellent leg work there.

I dont think we go WR then CB round 1 but I can certianly see DT than DE.
I would love a WR early but BP is a defensive guy. I expect he goes DT at 6 as you suggest with Rod Wright.

I'd love to add Antrel Rolle but BP has sworn off 1st round CBs it seems.

[starfrombirth]

anyone have any idea what picks will be made ahead of us....since we're dreaming anyways? :iggles:

[jterrell]

anyone have any idea what picks will be made ahead of us....since we're dreaming anyways? :iggles:
I can guess...LOL.

01. San Francisco Leinart QB
02. Miami (3-13) Rodgers QB
03. Cleveland (3-13) Derrick Johnson LB
04. Arizona (5-11) Cadillac Williams. Denny likes speed backs.
05. Tennessee (5-11) Antrel Rolle CB
06. Dallas (5-11) ?? Highest rated DL probably.

[Woods]

I can guess...LOL.

01. San Francisco Leinart QB
02. Miami (3-13) Rodgers QB
03. Cleveland (3-13) Derrick Johnson LB
04. Arizona (5-11) Cadillac Williams. Denny likes speed backs.
05. Tennessee (5-11) Antrel Rolle CB
06. Dallas (5-11) ?? Highest rated DL probably.

Is Leinart coming out? I thought he was staying for 1 more year.

I think he'd be crazy not to come out though. He'll likely be number 1 overall.

[starfrombirth]

That's what I wanted to see. We will go after defense this year and it's nice to think that whatever d position we choose to address will be available. This was kinda inline with what I was thinking too. I just wanted to see if anyone else felt the same way. Thanks. :jints:

[Quicksilver]

I can guess...LOL.

01. San Francisco Leinart QB
02. Miami (3-13) Rodgers QB
03. Cleveland (3-13) Derrick Johnson LB
04. Arizona (5-11) Cadillac Williams. Denny likes speed backs.
05. Tennessee (5-11) Antrel Rolle CB
06. Dallas (5-11) ?? Highest rated DL probably.

you can scratch Linehart off that list. He said he's headed back to USC next season.

[jterrell]

Is Leinart coming out? I thought he was staying for 1 more year.

I think he'd be crazy not to come out though. He'll likely be number 1 overall.
He says he's going to stay in schoolb ut I'll believe it when the deadline passes. I dont think a top 5 pick can stay in school. If he does then he obviously can't pass economics 101.

[jterrell]

you can scratch Linehart off that list. He said he's headed back to USC next season.
Don't believe eveything you hear or read.
Leinart has a game left to play this season and then will see the reports he can go number 1 overall to San Fran and move what 45 mins away. Hard to imagine him passing up that chance.

[starfrombirth]

Then just plug in Purdue's qb into that position..I'm still happy. :cunning:

[Quicksilver]

Don't believe eveything you hear or read.
Leinart has a game left to play this season and then will see the reports he can go number 1 overall to San Fran and move what 45 mins away. Hard to imagine him passing up that chance.

Very possible. Is Rattay that bad though that their ready to give up on him?

Manning did forego the draft and returned for his seior season so it does happen occasionaly.

[Hostile]

Okay, so Miami pulls off a huge upset. Things did not change all that much. Some percentages did of course. And New England and Philadelphia switched places.

2-12
1. San Francisco 49ers, .478 (.444)

3-11
2. Miami Dolphins, .545 (.566)
3. Cleveland Browns, .589 (.628)

4-10
4. Tennessee Titans, .513 (.520)

5-9
5. Arizona Cardinals, .451 (.454)
6. Chicago Bears, .473 (.474) * Lost to Tampa week #7.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, .473 (.485) * Defeated Chicago week #7
8. Washington Redskins, .487 (.490)
9. Detroit Lions, .513 (.541) * Lost to Dallas week #8
10. Dallas Cowboys, .513 (.536) * Defeated Detroit week #8.
11. New York Giants, .527 (.546) * San Diego owns selection
12. Oakland Raiders, .571 (.582)

6-8
13. New Orleans Saints, .478 (.459)
14. St. Louis Rams, .491 (.444)
15. {21} Carolina Panthers, .513 (.531) * Currently #2 NFC Wildcard, drops them.
16. {15} Houston Texans, .527 (.531)
17. {16} Cincinnati Bengals, .540 (.526)
18. {17} Kansas City Chiefs, .558 (.556)

7-7
19. {22} Seattle Seahawks, .446 (.429) * NFC West Leader, drops them.

8-6
20. {23} Green Bay Packers, .469 (.469) *NFC North Leader, drops them.
21. {24} Minnesota Vikings, .482 (.485) * Currently #1 NFC Wildcard, drops them.
22. {18} Denver Broncos, .500 (.485)
23. {19} Buffalo Bills, .504 (.500) * Dallas owns selection.
24. {20} Jacksonville Jaguars, .540 (.561)
25. Baltimore Ravens, .545 (.541) * Currently AFC #2 Wildcard.

10-4
26. New York Jets, .504 (.485) * Currently AFC #1 Wildcard.

11-3
27. Atlanta Falcons, .420 (.413) * NFC South Leader.
28. San Diego Chargers, .491 (.474) * AFC West Leader.
29. Indianapolis Colts, .507 (.474) * NFC South Leader.

12-2
30. New England Patriots, .487 (.495) * AFC East Leader.

13-1
31. Philadelphia Eagles, .438 (.439) * NFC East Leader.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers, .482 (.469) * AFC North Leader.

[StateCollegeCowboy]

Is Rattay that bad though that their ready to give up on him?


OMG yes he is...

[StateCollegeCowboy]

Okay, so Miami pulls off a huge upset. Things did not change all that much. Some percentages did of course. And New England and Philadelphia switched places.


What a great game that was. Miami has decent DEs (ok, taylor is really good) but thier DTs are what make that defense go. Dillion had no running room up the middle all game.

[Cowboy from New York]

I'm taking in to consideration the stories that Parcells wants to go full time 3-4 which means right now we have too many lineman and not enough linebackers, so I'd like to see us move up enough to get a shot at D Johnson LB, Texas.
What worries me about both number one picks is that everyone here knows how much Jerry loves to wheel and deal and I think that means he will try to move down on one of those 1st round picks to try and get back that 3rd rounder we gave up for Henson. Now, if they're intent is to get one of the DTs then it may be a good move as I think you could move down from #6-10 in the 1st and still get a top DT but I'm hoping we get Ferguson in free agency and wont be looking to go that way.
Anyone think Braylon Edwards could drop to 19 or 20 where we could get him with the Bills pick?

[AdamJT13]

6-8
13. New Orleans Saints, .478 (.459)
14. St. Louis Rams, .491 (.444)
15. {21} Carolina Panthers, .513 (.531) * Currently #2 NFC Wildcard, drops them.
16. {15} Houston Texans, .527 (.531)
17. {16} Cincinnati Bengals, .540 (.526)
18. {17} Kansas City Chiefs, .558 (.556)

7-7
19. {22} Seattle Seahawks, .446 (.429) * NFC West Leader, drops them. The Panthers and Seahawks wouldn't drop to Nos. 21 and 22. Teams stay in their "segment" unless they go to the Super Bowl. So Carolina would drop to No. 18, and the Seahawks would stay at No. 19.

In the 8-6 group, Denver would pick 20th, Dallas (through Buffalo) 21st, Jacksonville 22nd, then Green Bay, Minnesota and Baltimore would stay in that order unless they got knocked out of the playoffs in different rounds. For example, if Minnesota and Baltimore lost their first playoff game and Green Bay won one before losing, Minnesota would pick 23rd, Baltimore 24th and Green Bay 25th.

[Shotgun Dave]

If Dallas loses its last two games and NY wins its last two games, Dallas will end up picking around 6th. SD will have a low first round pick and ALSO NY's first rounder that they got in the Manning trade which would be maybe 16-18? If SD is as hot to grab Mike Williams as has been rumored for some time, maybe Dallas can trade the 6th overall for BOTH of SD's first round picks? I dunno who has the trade-points thingie but that seems reasonable - a 18 and a 24 or so for 6th overall, right?

That would give Dallas the 18th (ish), 21st(ish) and 24th (ish) in the first round. There has got to be three starters available in the first round, right?

Right?

[Cowboy from New York]

Here is a link to the draft pick value chart, I cant copy it to paste it here though, http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm

Pick 6 is worth 1600
pick 18 is 900 + pick 24 is 740=1640

[BadKarma]

Hmmm....interesting.

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pvc.gif

[Shotgun Dave]

I was pretty close then. I'm liking that idea more and more.

[DoomsDayD]

I still cant believe miami pulled off the upset last night. Even though i am still quite upset about the outcome and losing my teaser it was nice to see david topple goliath.

[fiveandcounting]

b]23. {19} Buffalo Bills, .504 (.500) * Dallas owns selection.[/b]


question - if buffalo misses the playoffs and is lets say 9-7 and one or two
8-8 nfc teams do make the playoffs, buffalos pick is before them on draft day correct? all the playoffs teams, both conferences and ranked in draft order after all non playoff teams? that could buy us a few sopts

[walrus]

9. Detroit Lions, .513 (.541) * Lost to Dallas week #8
10. Dallas Cowboys, .513 (.536) * Defeated Detroit week #8.

Draft order tie breaking rules are based on strength of schedule. So in this particular case, dallas would pick 9th and Detroit 10th based on strength of schedule.

From NFL.com
"Draft-order ties are resolved by the cumulative record of each team's opponents. The team with the weaker opponents receives drafting priority.

Within a tied segment, non-playoff clubs are given priority over playoff clubs. Priority of playoff clubs within a tied segment is based on their advancement in the playoffs, but they do not drop out of their tied segment unless they participate in the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl champion Patriots will select 32nd and the runner-up Panthers select 31st. "

[AdamJT13]

9. Detroit Lions, .513 (.541) * Lost to Dallas week #8
10. Dallas Cowboys, .513 (.536) * Defeated Detroit week #8.

Draft order tie breaking rules are based on strength of schedule. So in this particular case, dallas would pick 9th and Detroit 10th based on strength of schedule.
In Hostile's order, Dallas and Detroit have the same strength of schedule (.513). In that case, the tie is broken by our head-to-head victory, so the Lions would pick ninth and we'd pick 10th.

[AdamJT13]

b]23. {19} Buffalo Bills, .504 (.500) * Dallas owns selection.[/b]


question - if buffalo misses the playoffs and is lets say 9-7 and one or two
8-8 nfc teams do make the playoffs, buffalos pick is before them on draft day correct? all the playoffs teams, both conferences and ranked in draft order after all non playoff teams? that could buy us a few sopts
That's not correct. Teams are always grouped by their win-loss record, except for the Super Bowl winner (32nd) and loser (31st). If a 7-9 team makes the playoffs in the NFC and doesn't make the Super Bowl, it will draft before any 8-8 team, before any 9-7 team and before any 10-6 team, even if those teams don't make the playoffs.

[Champsheart]

That's not correct. Teams are always grouped by their win-loss record, except for the Super Bowl winner (32nd) and loser (31st). If a 7-9 team makes the playoffs in the NFC and doesn't make the Super Bowl, it will draft before any 8-8 team, before any 9-7 team and before any 10-6 team, even if those teams don't make the playoffs.

Well, That sucks!