Stats show that Pass Rush should be #1 priority in offseason

[Yakuza Rich]

There’s a lot of people on the board that seem to think that the Cowboys need a run stopping nose tackle or a wide receiver, especially in the draft. While I think those are needs that the Cowboys have, I don’t think they should be the #1 priority.

I think the main priority in the offseason should be a pass rush and statistics show the importance of a pass rush. There’s two main pass rush stats that I look at. Total team sacks and passing attempts per sack.

Mind you, there’s a difference between the two stats. Typically, teams that finish high in TOTAL team sacks have a good offense to go along with their defense. Mainly because their offense can get them the lead, opponents will have to pass the ball to get back into the game, and thus they get more opportunities sack the QB.

Take last year’s New England Patriots. They finished 6th in the NFL in total team sacks (41). However, their passing attempts per sack ratio was 15.07, ranking 19th in the NFL.

Anyway, here’s what I did. For the last 3 seasons (2002-2004) I took the top 10 teams in TOTAL sacks, took their win-loss records and averaged them up. In the past 3 years, these teams that have finished in the top 10 in TOTAL sacks have averaged a winning percentage of .625.

I’ve also done the same for teams that finished in the BOTTOM 10 in total sacks and found that their average winning percentage is around .400.

Now, for the passing attempts per sack ratio, I did the same thing and found that the teams in the top 10 finished with an average winning percentage of .588.

Teams in the bottom 10 finished with an average winning percentage of .383.

How does that apply to the Cowboys?

Well, in the last 3 seasons we’ve finished 31st, Tied for 21st, and 25th in TOTAL sacks.

For the passing attempts per sack ratio, we’ve finished 31st, 21st and 26th.

The only statistic that I’ve found to have such a similar correlation to winning percentage is turnover margin. Even still, teams that have finished in the top 10 in turnover margin have an average winning percentage about roughly the same as the winning percentage for the sack stats that I’ve just mentioned. My logical conclusion is that sacking the quarterback probably has a direct correlation to forcing turnovers. While a team has to hold onto the ball themselves to have a good turnover margin, it does have to force turnovers as well. Thus, teams that are good at forcing turnovers typically will wind up with a good turnover margin.

Is this a Zimmer problem? Perhaps. But, like I’ve said before this was Jerry Jones’ and Dave Campo’s defense long before it was Zimmer’s.

On top of that, while I don’t have the 2001 sacks statistics, I remember them finishing tied for last in TOTAL sacks and they probably finished near the bottom in passing attempts per sack ratio as well.

However, since Parcells’ arrival the defense has done better…albeit slightly.

Lastly, I think a head coach who was a former defensive coordinator should probably share the blame as well. But, in the end my belief is the lack of proper personnel to sack the quarterback is the main problem.


Rich………………..

[Jimz31]

There’s a lot of people on the board that seem to think that the Cowboys need a run stopping nose tackle or a wide receiver, especially in the draft. While I think those are needs that the Cowboys have, I don’t think they should be the #1 priority.

I think the main priority in the offseason should be a pass rush and statistics show the importance of a pass rush. There’s two main pass rush stats that I look at. Total team sacks and passing attempts per sack.

Mind you, there’s a difference between the two stats. Typically, teams that finish high in TOTAL team sacks have a good offense to go along with their defense. Mainly because their offense can get them the lead, opponents will have to pass the ball to get back into the game, and thus they get more opportunities sack the QB.

Take last year’s New England Patriots. They finished 6th in the NFL in total team sacks (41). However, their passing attempts per sack ratio was 15.07, ranking 19th in the NFL.

Anyway, here’s what I did. For the last 3 seasons (2002-2004) I took the top 10 teams in TOTAL sacks, took their win-loss records and averaged them up. In the past 3 years, these teams that have finished in the top 10 in TOTAL sacks have averaged a winning percentage of .625.

I’ve also done the same for teams that finished in the BOTTOM 10 in total sacks and found that their average winning percentage is around .400.

Now, for the passing attempts per sack ratio, I did the same thing and found that the teams in the top 10 finished with an average winning percentage of .588.

Teams in the bottom 10 finished with an average winning percentage of .383.

How does that apply to the Cowboys?

Well, in the last 3 seasons we’ve finished 31st, Tied for 21st, and 25th in TOTAL sacks.

For the passing attempts per sack ratio, we’ve finished 31st, 21st and 26th.

The only statistic that I’ve found to have such a similar correlation to winning percentage is turnover margin. Even still, teams that have finished in the top 10 in turnover margin have an average winning percentage about roughly the same as the winning percentage for the sack stats that I’ve just mentioned. My logical conclusion is that sacking the quarterback probably has a direct correlation to forcing turnovers. While a team has to hold onto the ball themselves to have a good turnover margin, it does have to force turnovers as well. Thus, teams that are good at forcing turnovers typically will wind up with a good turnover margin.

Is this a Zimmer problem? Perhaps. But, like I’ve said before this was Jerry Jones’ and Dave Campo’s defense long before it was Zimmer’s.

On top of that, while I don’t have the 2001 sacks statistics, I remember them finishing tied for last in TOTAL sacks and they probably finished near the bottom in passing attempts per sack ratio as well.

However, since Parcells’ arrival the defense has done better…albeit slightly.

Lastly, I think a head coach who was a former defensive coordinator should probably share the blame as well. But, in the end my belief is the lack of proper personnel to sack the quarterback is the main problem.


Rich………………..

Nice analysis!

I've always said that the team goes as the lines go....both Offensive line and Defensive line.

[Eskimo]

This is a passing league now and with the restrictions on DBs with illegal contact getting a consistent pass rush to force TOs has become even more paramount.

Nevertheless, getting teams into passing situations makes it much easier for the DL to get sacks. One of the best ways to do that is to have a great run-stuffing DT.

I agree with spending premium money and draft picks on pass rushers. The run stuffers can be had for a fairly reasonable cost in the FA market. A guy who I have been trumpeting for awhile now is Pat Williams from Buffalo.

[Cbz40]

Would have to agree.........We have not been able to put pressure on QB for years. It's past time to do something about this glaring deficiency.

[Doomsday101]

No doubt this team still is in need of a pass rush but we are also in need of a CB

[wileedog]

Lastly, I think a head coach who was a former defensive coordinator should probably share the blame as well. But, in the end my belief is the lack of proper personnel to sack the quarterback is the main problem.


Rich………………..

I agree with much of your (very good) analysis. However I find it troubling when a player like Ekuban who sucked very badly for multiple seasons in this system (whomever it belongs to) leaves and racks up 8 sacks someplace else.

Wiley is probably just making excuses, but he's sounded off about the lack of aggressiveness as well.

System or the players?

I think its both, personally.

About mid-season when the infamous "Letter" was released supposedly there was an accusation that Bill was messing with the defense, not letting Zimmer play 'his' game.

Zimmer's defense (or Campo's, etc), which I think he had almost total control of last season, ranked #1 last year, but also failed to stop quality offenses, and did not create pressure or by extension turnovers.

Parcells is all about harassing QB's and creating turnovers - it plays into the field position game which is his bread and butter. I wonder if the 'tinkering' was an attempt by Bill to put more aggressiveness into the D, but the players couldn't handle it?

Which is why I blame both coaches and players for this years meltdown.

All just speculation. But I do expect a serious revamp of the front 7, and won't be surprised if large parts of Zimmer/Campo's system are torn apart.

[Waffle]

There’s a lot of people on the board that seem to think that the Cowboys need a run stopping nose tackle or a wide receiver, especially in the draft. While I think those are needs that the Cowboys have, I don’t think they should be the #1 priority.

I think the main priority in the offseason should be a pass rush and statistics show the importance of a pass rush. There’s two main pass rush stats that I look at. Total team sacks and passing attempts per sack.

Mind you, there’s a difference between the two stats. Typically, teams that finish high in TOTAL team sacks have a good offense to go along with their defense. Mainly because their offense can get them the lead, opponents will have to pass the ball to get back into the game, and thus they get more opportunities sack the QB.

Take last year’s New England Patriots. They finished 6th in the NFL in total team sacks (41). However, their passing attempts per sack ratio was 15.07, ranking 19th in the NFL.

Anyway, here’s what I did. For the last 3 seasons (2002-2004) I took the top 10 teams in TOTAL sacks, took their win-loss records and averaged them up. In the past 3 years, these teams that have finished in the top 10 in TOTAL sacks have averaged a winning percentage of .625.

I’ve also done the same for teams that finished in the BOTTOM 10 in total sacks and found that their average winning percentage is around .400.

Now, for the passing attempts per sack ratio, I did the same thing and found that the teams in the top 10 finished with an average winning percentage of .588.

Teams in the bottom 10 finished with an average winning percentage of .383.

How does that apply to the Cowboys?

Well, in the last 3 seasons we’ve finished 31st, Tied for 21st, and 25th in TOTAL sacks.

For the passing attempts per sack ratio, we’ve finished 31st, 21st and 26th.

The only statistic that I’ve found to have such a similar correlation to winning percentage is turnover margin. Even still, teams that have finished in the top 10 in turnover margin have an average winning percentage about roughly the same as the winning percentage for the sack stats that I’ve just mentioned. My logical conclusion is that sacking the quarterback probably has a direct correlation to forcing turnovers. While a team has to hold onto the ball themselves to have a good turnover margin, it does have to force turnovers as well. Thus, teams that are good at forcing turnovers typically will wind up with a good turnover margin.

Is this a Zimmer problem? Perhaps. But, like I’ve said before this was Jerry Jones’ and Dave Campo’s defense long before it was Zimmer’s.

On top of that, while I don’t have the 2001 sacks statistics, I remember them finishing tied for last in TOTAL sacks and they probably finished near the bottom in passing attempts per sack ratio as well.

However, since Parcells’ arrival the defense has done better…albeit slightly.

Lastly, I think a head coach who was a former defensive coordinator should probably share the blame as well. But, in the end my belief is the lack of proper personnel to sack the quarterback is the main problem.


Rich………………..
Good work here, Rich. I think you've hit the bullseye with this post.

We HAVE to get a first rate pass rush in order to be successful, especially if your secondary is suspect like ours.

[Yakuza Rich]

Nevertheless, getting teams into passing situations makes it much easier for the DL to get sacks. One of the best ways to do that is to have a great run-stuffing DT.

I agree with spending premium money and draft picks on pass rushers. The run stuffers can be had for a fairly reasonable cost in the FA market. A guy who I have been trumpeting for awhile now is Pat Williams from Buffalo


The stats show over the last 3 years that run defense isn’t all that it’s cut up to be. Obviously, teams that allow a low amount of yards per game, typically do well. Upon looking at the stats, those in the top 10 in least amount of rushing yards allowed per game had an average winning percentage of .610…………….teams in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per game had an average winning percentage of .418.

A great indicator, but it still hasn’t produced the same effect as the sacks stats I’ve mentioned (although it wasn’t too far off).


However, looking at rushing yards allowed per carry shows a real surprising stat.

Teams in the top 10 in least amount of yards per carry did win for the most part. They had an average winning percentage of .566.

However, teams in the bottom 10 actually had did well with an average winning percentage of .536.


MOST IMPORTANTLY, the Cowboys actually finished 10th in rushing yards allowed this year. And they finished 17th in rushing yards allowed per carry.

Also, in the last 10 games of the year (when Lynn Scott was named the starter in favor of Tony Dixon), they allowed 85 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. Even with all of that, they finished 6-10.

ON TOP OF THAT, the Cowboys finished since 2001 they’ve finished 13th, 15th, 3rd, and 10th in rushing yards allowed per game. They finished 8th, 3rd, 4th, and 17th in rushing yards allowed per carry.

Those are good stats, but despite that we’ve finished 31-65 (.323) over the last 4 years.

I’m not saying that we should get pass rushers who aren’t willing to defend the run. But, it’s obvious that pass rushing should be a priority and the lack of a pass rush, but solid/good run stopping isn’t really working either.


Rich……………

[Yakuza Rich]

We HAVE to get a first rate pass rush in order to be successful, especially if your secondary is suspect like ours

The thing is that we don't know how suspect our secondary really is. The pass rush simply isn't there and that makes the secondaries job more difficult, if not impossible.

They mentioned that we haven't had a player with 10 sacks in a season in the last 10 years. I'd like to see if any team is the same. My guess is it's probably teams like Cincinnati, Chicago, and Arizona. Although Arizona and Chicago both had double digit sack guys this year.


Rich..............

[Outlaw Heroes]

Nice analysis, Rich. Now comes the hard part: where do we find the much needed pass rusher? Realistically, Abraham is not going to sniff free agency. The draft? There are questions about all of the top DEs. Erasmus James has had only one good season (and many credit his success to Hawthorne, who drew most of the attention from opposing linemen). Pollack looks more like a Wistrom/Ellis type (all around solid, and might give you eight sacks, but not really the sack-master we need). Finally, Kiwi looks very green (excuse the pun) and his height is likely to handicap him at the next level because it will be easy for opposing tackles to get under his pads and stop his forward momentum.

Then again, maybe I'm blowing the knocks on these guys out of proportion: Freeney and Suggs both came with huge question marks attached, but they've done alright.

[Crown Royal]

I agree with much of your (very good) analysis. However I find it troubling when a player like Ekuban who sucked very badly for multiple seasons in this system (whomever it belongs to) leaves and racks up 8 sacks someplace else.

Wiley is probably just making excuses, but he's sounded off about the lack of aggressiveness as well.

System or the players?

I think its both, personally.

About mid-season when the infamous "Letter" was released supposedly there was an accusation that Bill was messing with the defense, not letting Zimmer play 'his' game.

Zimmer's defense (or Campo's, etc), which I think he had almost total control of last season, ranked #1 last year, but also failed to stop quality offenses, and did not create pressure or by extension turnovers.

Parcells is all about harassing QB's and creating turnovers - it plays into the field position game which is his bread and butter. I wonder if the 'tinkering' was an attempt by Bill to put more aggressiveness into the D, but the players couldn't handle it?

Which is why I blame both coaches and players for this years meltdown.

All just speculation. But I do expect a serious revamp of the front 7, and won't be surprised if large parts of Zimmer/Campo's system are torn apart.
Ekuban got those sacks this season in Cleveland. Their defensive coordinator is Dave Campo. Zimmer was the protege to Campo. Similar systems. Hmmm.

[Yakuza Rich]

I agree with much of your (very good) analysis. However I find it troubling when a player like Ekuban who sucked very badly for multiple seasons in this system (whomever it belongs to) leaves and racks up 8 sacks someplace else.

It’s troubling to me as well. But, Ekuban wasn’t making sacks under Campo in Dallas either. And then he goes to Cleveland and almost magically gets 8 sacks under Campo this year. And considering that the sacks have gone up since Parcells’ arrival, I’m thinking that Ekuban was either an anomaly this season or there was some other reason that probably didn’t have to do with Zimmer.


About mid-season when the infamous "Letter" was released supposedly there was an accusation that Bill was messing with the defense, not letting Zimmer play 'his' game.

The Cowboys did a lot more blitzing in the beginning of the year than they did in the second half. The letter pointed out that we weren’t blitzing that much because of Parcells. Either way, the defense improved dramatically in both run defense and pass defense (although sacks per game went down) in the second half.

So, I’m not buying into the letter. It’s basically saying that the defense was doing bad because Parcells came in and didn’t allow the team to blitz as much. The reality is that if that is true, Parcells actually got the defense to play better by not blitzing as much.


Rich…………………………

[Hollywood Henderson]

Good thread...
Yes the lack of a pass rush has hurt us for 10 years...

I think thats also the time we started to lose our QUALITY cordinators!

Campo was clueless, just as zimmy is now...

I watched Greg Williams totally outcoach & beat Minny sunday with a very suspect defensive team full of injury problems...Jim Johnson of Filthy does the same thing...

There is light years difference in coaching talent/know how between those guys & coaches lile Belichec sp? & clueless zimmy...

My problem with Parcells has been IMHO he trys to be Mike Martz...Call plays... When his real talent is DEFENSE!

I have watched all season and Parcells & zimmy have NEVER talked or never even had eye contact during games...Did anyone else notice this?

It would not suprise me at all to see zimmy fired and to hire a guy who knows the 3/4...

3/4 or 4/3 really doesn't matter to me, we just need a real coach who is innovative...Not 2-3 plays behind the offensive coach...

[Yakuza Rich]

Some more stats…..


The NFL average of passing attempts per sack ratio is 15.13 passing attempts per sack over the last 3 seasons.

The average of the 10th ranked team in this category over the past 3 seasons has been 13.25 (the 10th ranked team has finished 33-19 in the last 3 years. That includes playoffs and one of the teams went to the Super Bowl, the 2002 Oakland Raiders)

The Cowboys have had an average ratio of 18.72 since 2001.


For TOTAL team sacks, the NFL average over the past three years has been 36.08 sacks.

The average amount of sacks of the 10th ranked team in total sacks in the past 3 seasons has been 39.33 sacks (the 10th ranked team has finished 83-65 (.561 winning percentage)

The Cowboys have averaged 28.25 sacks since 2001


By the look of the stats, we’ve got to make significant strides.

During the Parcells era, they’ve averaged 32.50 sacks. The NFL average during the Parcells era is 35.75. However, the average clearly isn’t good enough and a team should shoot for the top 10. The top 10 average in the Parcells era has been 39 sacks. So, that’s 6.5 sacks more that they’ll need to find a way to acquire.


As far as passing attempts per sack ratio……..in the Parcells era the Cowboys have averaged 15.30 passing attempts per sack. The league average is 14.98 in the last two seasons.

Again, that’s not close to being good enough. They need to crack the top 10 which has been at 13.25 over the last 2 years.


Rich………..

[TheHustler]

If we could a big run stuffing DT and a pass rushing DE, I would not be disappointed.

[Yakuza Rich]

I wouldn’t be disappointed at all either. What we may need is a big NT, so that we can get into the 3-4 scheme which may help us get more pressure on the QB.


Rich…………..