Getting to Know Patrick Peterson

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Theres a chance we can jump Washington, the NFC West, Minny, Detroit, and Buffalo. Get this guy even if it you have to trade


http://www.more-sports.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/PatrickPeterson_display_image.jpg









S1oqIK9cMTY

[CanuckCowboysFan]

Won't make it past 3, especially cause Lucks staying in school. Plus I don't think he's that special. Rather trade down.

Two quality linemen+ Kenny Tate>>>>>>>>>> Peterson.

[SDogo]

Theres a chance we can jump Washington, the NFC West, Minny, Detroit, and Buffalo. Get this guy even if it you have to trade

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/000/231/506/23PatrickPeterson_display_image.jpg?1274312611

Redskins will be tricky, we are currently behind in the tie breaker by .007% We need either the Rams or Tampa to win or simply the Skins to win to jump ahead of them.

We need not worry about Minny this week. From my calculations we cant catch them in the SOS (meaning they cant jump us this week)

Detroit and Buffalo are the 2 big games, either team wins they will drop behind us and we will move up one.

You also forgot about the 49ers although it's likely even if they lose their SOS will drop them behind us.

[TD-33]

Better chance of getting Amukamara but I really believe Dallas needs the best DT they can land 1st. They need a safety more than a cb (right now) and there isn't one in the first.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Won't make it past 3, especially cause Lucks staying in school. Plus I don't think he's that special. Rather trade down.

Two quality linemen+ Kenny Tate>>>>>>>>>> Peterson.

Dont think you are right about any of that

Redskins will be tricky, we are currently behind in the tie breaker by .007% We need either the Rams or Tampa to win or simply the Skins to win to jump ahead of them.

We need not worry about Minny this week. From my calculations we cant catch them in the SOS (meaning they cant jump us this week)

Detroit and Buffalo are the 2 big games, either team wins they will drop behind us and we will move up one.

You also forgot about the 49ers although it's likely even if they lose their SOS will drop them behind us.


I think theyll beat Ari at home

I like Detroit to bear Minny and the Jets might not need that game against Buffalo.

But Detroit really would be the big jump. They are prime Patrick Peterson competition. Carolina needs a QB, Denver needs front 7 help and Cincy has corners if nothing else

[rocyaice]

Detroit won't pass him. I think the cowboys can use Prince Akumara or Peterson. Those guys are gone when we draft? I wouldnt' be opposed to trading down and taking Brandon Harris.

[SDogo]

Dont think you are right about any of that




I think theyll beat Ari at home

I like Detroit to bear Minny and the Jets might not need that game against Buffalo.

But Detroit really would be the big jump. They are prime Patrick Peterson competition. Carolina needs a QB, Denver needs front 7 help and Cincy has corners if nothing else

Huge games last week of the season because I'm going to assume Dallas loses...........

Detroit vs Minny
49ers vs Arizona
Buffalo vs Jets
Cleveland vs Pittsburgh
Texans vs Jaguars
Denver vs San Diego

Those 6 games right there will directly decide our draft position.

[miamicowboy21]

No chance!!. This guy is a freak corner/ athlete. If he makes it past 5 I'll be shocked.

[CanuckCowboysFan]

Dont think you are right about any of that


LOL and don't think you're right about jumping 5 teams and trading up.

[bruce122767]

I don't think he will be around after 5 either. The team has so many holes I really don't know who to pick, OL, DL, DB. Some logic says to trade down but I remember how well that worked in 09. Team has alot of needs that won't be fixed in one draft.

[jblaze2004]

there is a chance talent drops. Stephen Jackson, Dez(i know he had problems), Taylor Mays who everyone thought was a top 10 pick at the end of last season end up dropping to the second round.

[rocyaice]

I don't think he will be around after 5 either. The team has so many holes I really don't know who to pick, OL, DL, DB. Some logic says to trade down but I remember how well that worked in 09. Team has alot of needs that won't be fixed in one draft.

'09 draft was rather weak. I'm usually not in favor of trading down but if they trade down even to #20 they will still get a impact player. If I can't get Akumara or Peterson I trade down to get Brandon Harris.

[rocyaice]

there is a chance talent drops. Stephen Jackson, Dez(i know he had problems), Taylor Mays who everyone thought was a top 10 pick at the end of last season end up dropping to the second round.


Yea but everyone had Taylor Mays going late 1st round to us and some other teams. He slipped but I can say with confidence if Patrick Peterson drops its nothing more than a few draft picks. Its going to be interesting to see how many teams go quarterback in that early 1st round.

[GloryDaysRBack]

Huge games last week of the season because I'm going to assume Dallas loses...........

Detroit vs Minny
49ers vs Arizona
Buffalo vs Jets
Cleveland vs Pittsburgh
Texans vs Jaguars
Denver vs San Diego

Those 6 games right there will directly decide our draft position.

realistically how high can we jump?

I think it is safe to say TB will beat Sea tomorrow

[Woods]

We can get an impact player drafting in the top 6-8 spots, imo.

It may be a DL though. And frankly said, that wouldn't be bad either.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Huge games last week of the season because I'm going to assume Dallas loses...........

Detroit vs Minny
49ers vs Arizona
Buffalo vs Jets
Cleveland vs Pittsburgh
Texans vs Jaguars
Denver vs San Diego

Those 6 games right there will directly decide our draft position.


I dont think we are going to beat Philly either so the Browns are irrelevant. Same w/ the Texans.

I also dont see Denver winning 2 games.

So if we get the bolded to go our way I believe it could be

1. Carolina - Andrew Luck
2. Cincy- AJ Green or Bowers
3. Denver Broncos - Fariley or Bowers
4. Dallas - Patrick Peterson

And if Washington is ahead of us then they go after Cam Newton anyway

[jblaze2004]

Yea but everyone had Taylor Mays going late 1st round to us and some other teams. He slipped but I can say with confidence if Patrick Peterson drops its nothing more than a few draft picks. Its going to be interesting to see how many teams go quarterback in that early 1st round.

well hopefully we are there to catch him if we love him and he test out physically and mentally good at the combine and meetings.

[jblaze2004]

i think the skins beat the Jags without MJD too.

[GloryDaysRBack]

I dont think we are going to beat Philly either so the Browns are irrelevant. Same w/ the Texans.

I also dont see Denver winning 2 games.

So if we get the bolded to go our way I believe it could be

1. Carolina - Andrew Luck
2. Cincy- AJ Green or Bowers
3. Denver Broncos - Fariley or Bowers
4. Dallas - Patrick Peterson

And if Washington is ahead of us then they go after Cam Newton anyway

neither the browns or texans can finish with a higher pick than us if we are all at 5-11?

[MarionBarberThe4th]

realistically how high can we jump?

I think it is safe to say TB will beat Sea tomorrow


The Seahawks are 6-8. They are out of our way.

And looking at the opponents winning % only the NFC West teams(SF) are worse than ours. If the 49ers cant get a win they are ahead of us. They should also be thinking QB. Washington could beat us in a tie-breaker too. Other than that we have everyone beat



neither the browns or texans can finish with a higher pick than us if we are all at 5-11?


Their opponents win % appears to be out of reach.

Browns: 571
Texans: 536
Cowboys : 518

[CanuckCowboysFan]

I dont think we are going to beat Philly either so the Browns are irrelevant. Same w/ the Texans.

I also dont see Denver winning 2 games.

So if we get the bolded to go our way I believe it could be

1. Carolina - Andrew Luck
2. Cincy- AJ Green or Bowers
3. Denver Broncos - Fariley or Bowers
4. Dallas - Patrick Peterson

And if Washington is ahead of us then they go after Cam Newton anyway

Luck - probably staying in school

Cincy - going to lose Jonathan Joseph in FA.

Denver - Bailey lost in Free agency.

Trying to hard to purposely let PP fall to Dallas' slot. Be realistic.

[GloryDaysRBack]

The Seahawks are 6-8. They are out of our way.

And looking at the opponents winning % only the NFC West teams(SF) are worse than ours. If the 49ers cant get a win they are ahead of us. They should also be thinking QB. Washington could beat us in a tie-breaker too. Other than that we have everyone beat

the reason why I mentioned a TB win was bc Sdogo said a TB win would give us the edge over the skins..duno if thats true or not

[GloryDaysRBack]

Luck - probably staying in school

Cincy - going to lose Jonathan Joseph in FA.

Denver - Bailey lost in Free agency.

Trying to hard to purposely let PP fall to Dallas' slot. Be realistic.

you are trying too hard to assume he will be gone..

its anybodys guess

there are rumblings that some teams have Prince rated above Peterson anyways...

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Luck - probably staying in school

Cincy - going to lose Jonathan Joseph in FA.

Denver - Bailey lost in Free agency.

Trying to hard to purposely let PP fall to Dallas' slot. Be realistic.

You dont know any of that, dont be Slate



the reason why I mentioned a TB win was bc Sdogo said a TB win would give us the edge over the skins..duno if thats true or not

Well, every game tomorrow affect everyones' opponents win %. So since Seattle cant jump us directly then root for w/e that is

[jblaze2004]

wow is Luck really staying in school after most likely being the number 1 overall pick making millions.

He could really hurt his draft stock. I guess he just likes playing...idk

[MarionBarberThe4th]

So the 2 different games between us and the Skins on our schedules are Bucs/Rams for them and Saints/Cards for us

Right now their combo is 14-14
Ours is 15-14



Lets go Falcons against Saints on Monday night

Ohhhhhh snap. And Bucs/Saints week 17

[GloryDaysRBack]

So the 2 different games between us and the Skins are Bucs/Rams for them and Saints/Cards for us

Right now their combo is 14-14
Ours is 15-14



Lets go Falcons against Saints on Monday night

Ohhhhhh snap. And Bucs/Saints week 17

darn...i think NO is beating Atl

[TD-33]

Dont think you are right about any of that




I think theyll beat Ari at home

I like Detroit to bear Minny and the Jets might not need that game against Buffalo.

But Detroit really would be the big jump. They are prime Patrick Peterson competition. Carolina needs a QB, Denver needs front 7 help and Cincy has corners if nothing else
They also need to replace a shut down corner in Champ. Without him they are hurting.

[GloryDaysRBack]

So the 2 different games between us and the Skins on our schedules are Bucs/Rams for them and Saints/Cards for us

Right now their combo is 14-14
Ours is 15-14



Lets go Falcons against Saints on Monday night

Ohhhhhh snap. And Bucs/Saints week 17

realistically what is the worst draft position we can have at 5-11?

[MarionBarberThe4th]

realistically what is the worst draft position we can have at 5-11?


http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Draft-Order.php

Well heres the win % of our competition. I dont know how much it can really change in 2 weeks.

[SDogo]

realistically what is the worst draft position we can have at 5-11?

12th and the odds are less then 1%

[SDogo]

Their opponents win % appears to be out of reach.

Browns: 571
Texans: 536
Cowboys : 518

After today ours is 520

[Cover 2]

there is a chance talent drops. Stephen Jackson, Dez(i know he had problems), Taylor Mays who everyone thought was a top 10 pick at the end of last season end up dropping to the second round.
I wouldn't say everyone. I was one that thought he was a 3rd-4th rounder due to his lack of change of direction and playmaking skills. I was down on him since his junior year.

[GloryDaysRBack]

12th and the odds are less then 1%

less than 1% isnt realistic

[SDogo]

less than 1% isnt realistic

yet mathematically it is possible. Just a various combination of wins, losses and 3 ties.

Like I said, less then 1%

[SDogo]

On a side note, after tonight our most probable pick is 6th with a 39% chance followed by 7th with a 26% chance

[GloryDaysRBack]

On a side note, after tonight our most probable pick is 6th with a 39% chance followed by 7th with a 26% chance

what are the chances for 4 and 5?

[SDogo]

what are the chances for 4 and 5?

4th is 2% and 5th is 16%

Realistically we can be out of contention for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th picks by the end of tomorrow.

[Woods]

4th is 2% and 5th is 16%

Realistically we can be out of contention for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th picks by the end of tomorrow.

At 6th or 7th we can land a very good player. He might be a DL, however, and not a CB. But that's not all bad, imo.

[theogt]

Trade up to get him. He is to the defense what Dez was to offense. He could start immediately and amaze you in the process.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Trade up to get him. He is to the defense what Dez was to offense. He could start immediately and amaze you in the process.



Totally stole that line from me but welcome to the club

[theogt]

Totally stole that line from me but welcome to the clubBeen driving the Peterson bus here for a while. I've even said that exact quote before.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Been driving the Peterson bus here for a while. I've even said that exact quote before.


Basically the D needs someone who can, at whatever point its needed, hes just like "Alright you guys arent even...... I got this"



I think Robert Quinn is 90% in that mold as well.

[dbair1967]

Just my opinion, but Spencer being invisible this year has alot more to do with the defense being awful than just about anything else, even with the obvious holes at both safety spots and the inconsistent play at CB.

If he rushes the passer the way we all thought he would (and the way he consistently did the 2nd half of last yr) then we dont have alot of the issues we've had defensively. He's also regressed greatly vs the run and in coverage.

Whomever the new DC and HC are, they are going to have to study him in great detail. If they decide he is a JAG and is never going to pan out into a consistent threat at OLB, then OLB could easily be a priority in next years draft. And there are a number of really good 3-4 OLB prospects coming out.

[casmith07]

Trade up to get him. He is to the defense what Dez was to offense. He could start immediately and amaze you in the process.

Agree. If we're 6 or 7, and he's projected to go top 3-5, I would trade up to get him.

He is the closest thing we will find to a Charles Woodson this decade.

[Deep_Freeze]

Luck - probably staying in school

Cincy - going to lose Jonathan Joseph in FA.

Denver - Bailey lost in Free agency.

Trying to hard to purposely let PP fall to Dallas' slot. Be realistic.

We also have to see the big picture here.....if we end up with the 7th or 8th pick, we could still end up with a very good DL and we could go after Joseph or Bailey in free agency.

I like Peterson as much as anyone and would trade up to get him, but if we could get Joseph or Bailey, getting a DL would be top on my list since there are no OL or safeties worth the pick.

[BAT]

Just my opinion, but Spencer being invisible this year has alot more to do with the defense being awful than just about anything else, even with the obvious holes at both safety spots and the inconsistent play at CB.

If he rushes the passer the way we all thought he would (and the way he consistently did the 2nd half of last yr) then we dont have alot of the issues we've had defensively. He's also regressed greatly vs the run and in coverage.

Whomever the new DC and HC are, they are going to have to study him in great detail. If they decide he is a JAG and is never going to pan out into a consistent threat at OLB, then OLB could easily be a priority in next years draft. And there are a number of really good 3-4 OLB prospects coming out.

I love Peterson too, but THIS is right on the money. Spencer is not the answer.

[Idgit]

Just my opinion, but Spencer being invisible this year has alot more to do with the defense being awful than just about anything else, even with the obvious holes at both safety spots and the inconsistent play at CB.

If he rushes the passer the way we all thought he would (and the way he consistently did the 2nd half of last yr) then we dont have alot of the issues we've had defensively. He's also regressed greatly vs the run and in coverage.

Whomever the new DC and HC are, they are going to have to study him in great detail. If they decide he is a JAG and is never going to pan out into a consistent threat at OLB, then OLB could easily be a priority in next years draft. And there are a number of really good 3-4 OLB prospects coming out.

Jerry implied in an interview a few weeks back that Spencer had been playing through some sort of significant injury most of this season. For whatever that's worth.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Hmmmm, another game to keep an eye on. Cincy against SD, if Cincy wins and the Chargers are eliminated then that means SD might not show up week 17 against Denver.

Houston is without Andre Johnson and the Texans play a Tebow'd up Denver today.

And if Baltimore is locked into their seed they might not show up against Cincy week 17.



All the teams ahead of us are actually set up so no poorly. Not all will go our way but if it breaks at about an average rate we should be at like #4.



And if it breaks even better we can actually trade down 1 spot and still get Peterson. Couldnt you see Washington, SF, or Arizona getting antsy about Cam Newton?

If we can trade down 1 spot, pick up a 3rd, and get Patrick Peterson it would make having Marc Colombo start 15 games worth it

[ajk23az]

Won't make it past 3, especially cause Lucks staying in school. Plus I don't think he's that special. Rather trade down.

Two quality linemen+ Kenny Tate>>>>>>>>>> Peterson.

Not a chance Luck stays in school, especially when he is projected to be the #1 pick. NOT. A. CHANCE.

[Manwiththeplan]

Not a chance Luck stays in school, especially when he is projected to be the #1 pick. NOT. A. CHANCE.

On top of that, Harbaugh may get an NFL coaching job. Realistically Stanford cannot pay him what he's worth, and he really just needs to decide if he wants to be a college coach (else where) or a pro coach (wait for right opportunity).

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Problem is that Carolina doesnt way to pay what Harbaugh will command so the Luck/Harbough re-teaming in the NFL might be a pipe-dream

[Manwiththeplan]

Problem is that Carolina doesnt way to pay what Harbaugh will command so the Luck/Harbough re-teaming in the NFL might be a pipe-dream

based on what? everyone says their owner is cheap, but I disagree. when carolina has had a good team, he has paid players. The only good player they have let go, is really Julius Peppers. Kris Jenkins kept getting hurt, so they cut him, and I can't say they regret that.

As far as paying Harbaugh, they are paying John Fox 5 million per year. Jim Harbaugh currently has 4 years at 1.25 million left on his Stanford contract, so he would certainly get a huge amount more from Carolina (about the value of the rest of his contract).

For Harbaugh I think he'll either coach at Michigan next year or Carolina

[ajk23az]

based on what? everyone says their owner is cheap, but I disagree. when carolina has had a good team, he has paid players. The only good player they have let go, is really Julius Peppers. Kris Jenkins kept getting hurt, so they cut him, and I can't say they regret that.

As far as paying Harbaugh, they are paying John Fox 5 million per year. Jim Harbaugh currently has 4 years at 1.25 million left on his Stanford contract, so he would certainly get a huge amount more from Carolina (about the value of the rest of his contract).

For Harbaugh I think he'll either coach at Michigan next year or Carolina

They also paid Chris Gamble 6 yr / 50 million. Making him one of the highest paid CBs in the league.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

based on what? everyone says their owner is cheap, but I disagree. when carolina has had a good team, he has paid players. The only good player they have let go, is really Julius Peppers. Kris Jenkins kept getting hurt, so they cut him, and I can't say they regret that.

As far as paying Harbaugh, they are paying John Fox 5 million per year. Jim Harbaugh currently has 4 years at 1.25 million left on his Stanford contract, so he would certainly get a huge amount more from Carolina (about the value of the rest of his contract).

For Harbaugh I think he'll either coach at Michigan next year or Carolina

Harbough has a lot of options. Carolina wont outbid Michigan or say Houston.

They have to pay Fox $5M a year and Harbough $6M-$7M

[GloryDaysRBack]

Harbough has a lot of options. Carolina wont outbid Michigan or say Houston.

They have to pay Fox $5M a year and Harbough $6M-$7M

are you a Peterson at CB or safety guy?

[MarionBarberThe4th]

are you a Peterson at CB or safety guy?


I plug him in at FS on day 1 and watch him work.

If you start him at CB then you still have this monster hole at safety that by looking at the FA list and the draft board will be hard to fill.


Then by his 2nd year Newman should be about done so you can move him to CB and see whats out there at safety between AOA, the draft, trades, and FA.

[GloryDaysRBack]

I plug him in at FS on day 1 and watch him work.

If you start him at CB then you still have this monster hole at safety that by looking at the FA list and the draft board will be hard to fill.


Then by his 2nd year Newman should be about done so you can move him to CB and see whats out there at safety between AOA, the draft, trades, and FA.

who are we rooting for at 1pm? for strength of schedule purposes..i can figure out the w/l teams lol

[Manwiththeplan]

Harbough has a lot of options. Carolina wont outbid Michigan or say Houston.

They have to pay Fox $5M a year and Harbough $6M-$7M

Fox's contract is up, so they won't be paying him. On top of that, Michigan is only paying Rich Rodriguez 2.5 million per year (on the hook till 2014), so it's unlikely they outbid an nfl team. you could argue that denver, houston or some other team outbids carolina, but it's hard for him to find a better situation. Pretty decent o-line, especially if Ryan Kali resigns, 2 good RBs and the #1 pick in the draft. You'll have to completely rebuild the defense, but that's a potentially dominant core on offense.

[SDogo]

who are we rooting for at 1pm? for strength of schedule purposes..i can figure out the w/l teams lol

Bears over Jets
Bills over Patriots
Browns over Ravens
49ers over Rams
Chiefs over Titans
Lions over Dolphins
Skins over Jaguars
Texans over Broncos (although if you think the Broncos can win their last 2 you can root for the Broncos)
Bengals over Chargers
Raiders over Colts
Tampa Bay over Seattle
Packers over Giants
Vikings over Eagles
Falcons over Saints

[Manwiththeplan]

who are we rooting for at 1pm? for strength of schedule purposes..i can figure out the w/l teams lol

We're better off hoping the Skins and 49ers win today, if they do, we'll likely end up in the 6th spot. If Detroit wins, we can be 5th.

[Manwiththeplan]

They also paid Chris Gamble 6 yr / 50 million. Making him one of the highest paid CBs in the league.

Yea, their owner isn't cheap and really wants to win. If you don't know Jerry Richardson is the only owner in NFL history to be a former player (1 season though). On top of that he caught the GW TD pass in the 1960 NFL championship game. He's a native carolinian and wants that team to win a super bowl, so if he wants a Harbaugh/Luck combo, he'll make it happen.

[fanfromvirginia]

less than 1% isnt realistic

SDogo's got this worked out better than I do but the realistic answer is 6th. With a loss against Philly next week and no ties, we can't do worse than 6th.

[CanuckCowboysFan]

Not a chance Luck stays in school, especially when he is projected to be the #1 pick. NOT. A. CHANCE.


Well somebody has obviously not been following him. He has stated numerous times that his education is very important to him. He has said he wants his degree before he plays in the NFL. He had a 90% average in high school and is majoring in Architectural Design. With the uncertainty of the future of the NFL I don't blame him.

Not saying is the right decision, but it is what it is. Don't be surprised if he stays. Many people think he will, regardless if he's projected 1st overall.

[Manwiththeplan]

Well somebody has obviously not been following him. He has stated numerous times that his education is very important to him. He has said he wants his degree before he plays in the NFL. He had a 90% average in high school and is majoring in Architectural Design. With the uncertainty of the future of the NFL I don't blame him.

Not saying is the right decision, but it is what it is. Don't be surprised if he stays. Many people think he will, regardless if he's projected 1st overall.

He's also said that if Harbaugh goes, he's gone and it seems that Harbaugh will end up in Michigan or the NFL.

Also you should never believe what a player says

[MarionBarberThe4th]

I think SF SOS is at .5046
Ours is .5090


Heres the schedules and records. I didnt add the 2nd Philly game for us or Ari a 2nd time for them. Adding Philly as it stands now, 10-4 jumps our SOS to .5214
Adding Arizona another time to theirs makes them .4935

It might be a wrap on leaping the Niners

SF:
sea,sea 12-14
stl,stl 14-16
ari 5-10
no 10-4
kc 10-5
atl 12-2
phi 10-4
oak 7-8
car 2-13
Den 4-11
TB 8-7
GB 9-6
SD 8-7
Ari-




Wsh,wsh 12-18
Phi 10-4
NYG,NYH 18-10
Chi 11-4
Hou 5-10
Ten 5-10
Min 5-9
Jax 8-7
GB 9-6
Det 5-10
NO 10-4
Indy 9-6
Ari 5-10
Philly-

[Manwiththeplan]

We can't leap frog ARZ/SF. No matter what, we'll be behind one of them

[MarionBarberThe4th]

We can't leap frog ARZ/SF. No matter what, we'll be behind one of them


We could have had the Cards win, and at 5 wins apiece we leapfrog the Niners on SOS, but its unlikely now w/ the updated SOS.

So I believe that game doesnt matter. We will leapfrog the winner of that game and the loser is picking ahead of us.

[fanfromvirginia]

We could have had the Cards win, and at 5 wins apiece we leapfrog the Niners on SOS, but its unlikely now w/ the updated SOS.

So I believe that game doesnt matter. We will leapfrog the winner of that game and the loser is picking ahead of us.

I've got theirs at .502 and ours at .511 (using the ESPN playoff standings data). That seems doable (though not too likely). Look how much Denver's SoS dropped after the late games -- from .527 down to .507.

[SDogo]

We could have had the Cards win, and at 5 wins apiece we leapfrog the Niners on SOS, but its unlikely now w/ the updated SOS.

So I believe that game doesnt matter. We will leapfrog the winner of that game and the loser is picking ahead of us.

If the Cardinals win there are actually several scenario's that allow us to win the SOS tie breaker with SF. This game is very important because it's impossible for us to win the SOS tie breaker with Arizona.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

1. Carolina
2. Ari or SF have to be above us
-------
3. If Denver loses to a deflated SD. Not impossible.
4. If Buffalo loses to a totally unmotivated Jets, I think they win
5. If Cincy loses to a totally unmotivated Baltimore, I think they win.

I think we are picking 3 or 4 and getting Patrick Peterson

[SDogo]

1. Carolina
2. Ari or SF have to be above us
-------
3. If Denver loses to a deflated SD. Not impossible.
4. If Buffalo loses to a totally unmotivated Jets, I think they win
5. If Cincy loses to a totally unmotivated Baltimore, I think they win.

I think we are picking 3 or 4 and getting Patrick Peterson

We have been eliminated for the 2nd pick and technically while not mathematically eliminated from the 3rd pick it requires a bunch of upsets and two ties. The same goes for the 4th pick.

Like I said, I will have a full update soon. If my damn server ever gets back online because I cant update my site to process the numbers.

[fanfromvirginia]

If the Cardinals win there are actually several scenario's that allow us to win the SOS tie breaker with SF. This game is very important because it's impossible for us to win the SOS tie breaker with Arizona.

Good work.

Since you're digging at least a level lower on this than me, would you mind posting the various scenarios later on in the week? I think a lot of people would be interested in it. And I haven't looked in detail at all at where we would draft if we were to beat Philly -- it seems like the range is about 7 or 8 to 13 but that's just a guess. Have you figured this out?

ON EDIT: Never mind. Just saw your latest post.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

I've got theirs at .502 and ours at .511 (using the ESPN playoff standings data). That seems doable (though not too likely). Look how much Denver's SoS dropped after the late games -- from .527 down to .507.


Go w/ yours.


If the Cardinals win there are actually several scenario's that allow us to win the SOS tie breaker with SF. This game is very important because it's impossible for us to win the SOS tie breaker with Arizona.



The teams we played that they didnt: Wsh, NYG, Chi, Houston, Ten, Min, Jax, Det, Indy,


Teams they played that we didnt: Sea, Stl, KC, Atl, Oak, Car, Den, TB, SD

Giants/Skins play eachother.
Bears/Packers - We played the Bears and they didnt, so go Packers
Some of these teams that we played and they didnt are playing teams that we also played and they didnt.

[fanfromvirginia]

We have been eliminated for the 2nd pick and technically while not mathematically eliminated from the 3rd pick it requires a bunch of upsets and two ties. The same goes for the 4th pick.

Like I said, I will have a full update soon. If my damn server ever gets back online because I cant update my site to process the numbers.

I'm surprised we can't overtake Cincinnati. According to the ESPN data, theirs is .570 and ours is .511. Would us losing and them winning change the SoS that much? Maybe we're using different data?

[MarionBarberThe4th]

I'm surprised we can't overtake Cincinnati. According to the ESPN data, theirs is .570 and ours is .511. Would us losing and them winning change the SoS that much?


That doesnt make sense. Link?

[fanfromvirginia]

That doesnt make sense. Link?

Here's what I've been using. It has an SoS column, which I've been assuming is both the right metric and accurate but of course I could be wrong:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Here's what I've been using. It has an SoS column, which I've been assuming is both the right metric and accurate but of course I could be wrong:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false


I'm surprised we can't overtake Cincinnati. According to the ESPN data, theirs is .570 and ours is .511.



We lose, they win. The rest of the weeks games would have to unfold in an unusual manner for the SOS to change so dramatically, no?

[SDogo]

Here's what I've been using. It has an SoS column, which I've been assuming is both the right metric and accurate but of course I could be wrong:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false

It's pretty darn close.

I always have used the "projected" SOS when determining the draft order. This creates a more accurate projection early in the season. Being that we are entering the last week the difference between that link and mine is only .010%.

Like Buffalo, I'm almost certain is mathematically impossible for the Bengals to overtake us on the SOS tie breaker.

[SDogo]

We lose, they win. The rest of the weeks games would have to unfold in an unusual manner for the SOS to change so dramatically, no?

I don't see any scenario that allows them to overtake us on the SOS tie breaker. You are correct.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

I don't see any scenario that allows them to overtake us on the SOS tie breaker. You are correct.


Then why are we talking about ties between teams well ahead of us?

Buffalo and Cincy have a SOS much better than ours. Denver's is about the same

We lose, 2 or 3 of them win and we move up.

[SDogo]

Then why are we talking about ties between teams well ahead of us?

Our SOS and Buffalo's and Cincy's are pretty far.

Denver's is about the same

We lose, 2 or 3 of them win and we move up.

It's not as simple as just looking at the team above you. You have to figure every game every team plays that was on their schedule comes into play when your talking about the SOS tie breaker.

[fanfromvirginia]

We lose, they win. The rest of the weeks games would have to unfold in an unusual manner for the SOS to change so dramatically, no?


What am I missing here? If we lose and they win, we're both 5-11 and their SoS is .570 and quite a bit higher than ours, which means they lose the tiebreaker, right, because they're assumed to be a better team because of the stronger schedule?

[SDogo]

What am I missing here? If we lose and they win, we're both 5-11 and their SoS is .570 and quite a bit higher than ours, which means they lose the tiebreaker, right, because they're assumed to be a better team because of the stronger schedule?

I dont think your missing anything, I think we got 3 people trying to say almost the same thing but in totally different way.

After a closer look it's "possible" based on unlike opponents and the remaining games that if all hell broke loose in the NFL next week the Bengals SOS could drop enough or Dallas SOS rise enough that we could lose the tie breaker by .010% but the scenario's is so crazy it's not even worth worrying about.

[Manwiththeplan]

If the Cardinals win there are actually several scenario's that allow us to win the SOS tie breaker with SF. This game is very important because it's impossible for us to win the SOS tie breaker with Arizona.

For us to overtake SF, we need our opponents to win 7 less games this week.

Most of the games will cancel out so it's probably impossible for SF to pick up 7 or even 6 wins.

SF vs ARZ = Dal vs PHI (each team pick up 3 games assuming philly and zona win)
STL vs SEA = NYG vs WSH(each team picks up 2 games)
Oak vs KC = Jax vs Hou (each team pick up 1 game)
SD vs DEN = Ten vs IND(each team picks up 1 game)
CAR vs ATL = DET vs MIN (each team picks up 1 game

The 2 games that matter are
NO vs TB
GB vs CHI

best case scenario is TB wins (we didn't play them) and Green Bay wins (they share that opponent), causing SF's opponents to gain 2 wins to our 1. Even if MIN beats PHI, that breaks us even (we each played MIN) and if ATL beats NO, they gain 1 more win.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

For us to overtake SF, we need our opponents to win 7 less games this week.

Most of the games will cancel out so it's probably impossible for SF to pick up 7 or even 6 wins.

SF vs ARZ = Dal vs PHI (each team pick up 3 games assuming philly and zona win)
STL vs SEA = NYG vs WSH(each team picks up 2 games)
Oak vs KC = Jax vs Hou (each team pick up 1 game)
SD vs DEN = Ten vs IND(each team picks up 1 game)
CAR vs ATL = DET vs MIN (each team picks up 1 game

The 2 games that matter are
NO vs TB
GB vs CHI

best case scenario is TB wins (we didn't play them) and Green Bay wins (they share that opponent), causing SF's opponents to gain 2 wins to our 1. Even if MIN beats PHI, that breaks us even (we each played MIN) and if ATL beats NO, they gain 1 more win.


Im almost done calculating this stuff b/c its starting to lose all meaning but I think that sounds right.

I had SF's opponents at 130 -126.
And looking at the Broncos opponents schedule thats not happening either. I finished the season and their SOS was an even .500
and our opponents were 135-121.

So Carolina, Arizona or SF, and Denver. Thats 3 ahead of us, but w/ Buffalo and Cincy winning in week 17 I think we can get #4.