Right now we have the 6th pick, so...

[Cajuncowboy]

I know that looking ahead to the draft is not where we wanted to be but it's now the reality of the situation.

Losing tonight leaves the bottom 6 teams like this...

Carolina 2-13

Denver 3-11

Cincinnati 3-11

Detroit 4-10

Buffalo 4-10

Dallas 5-10

At this point we would have the 6th pick. If Buffalo loses and they are at 5-10 I think we would leap them. But other than that, I don't think we get above the 5th pick.

Now there is the possibility we could beat the Eagirls and I hope we do but if not, it looks like we will have the 5th, 6th or at worse 7th pick.

Can either of these get us Peterson?

[Avery]

The short answer is yes. Peterson or Prince are definite possibilities this high.

You already know Luck is going #1 and I also think the Cam Newton bandwagon is going to roll into full action and carry him to the top five. Add some great D-lineman in the mix and you've got the potential to see them there.

About a 95% probability we go defense first round unless we trade down and target OL.

[KD]

http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php

[MonsterD]

I believe that Arizona has a worse SOS(strength of schedule) They currently would pick before us, I guess we wil be 7th or still 8th tomorrow we can see.

[The Realist]

No way in the world we have a shot at Peterson.

[MonsterD]

No way in the world we have a shot at Peterson.


Peterson is the property of the Lions.

[fanfromvirginia]

I believe that Arizona has a worse SOS(strength of schedule) They currently would pick before us, I guess we wil be 7th or still 8th tomorrow we can see.

Good point.

I just looked up the current strengths of schedule and Dallas is actually in pretty good shape in terms of draft order. Of the 11 teams with between 3 and 5 wins, there are 3 teams with lower SoS -- Arizona (.462), Washington (.500), and Minnesota (.505). Then comes Dallas at .507. So we could conceivably jump Washington and Minnesota, depending on how the rest of the season plays out. After Dallas there is a pretty good drop off, meaning we probably aren't going to wind up in worse shape in terms of SoS. The teams in worse shape are: Denver (.528), Minnesota (.540), Cleveland (.551), Buffalo and Houston (.553), Detroit (.558), and Cinci (.578).

So if we lose to the Eagles, we'll finish higher in draft order than Cleveland, Houston and Minnesota, pretty much no matter what happens. We'll almost certainly finish higher than Detroit and Buffalo if either of them can manage a win. And we could still finish higher than Washington and Minnesota if neither of them manage a win. On the very off chance that Cinci or Denver manage to win out, we'd finish above them as well.

[fanfromvirginia]

Peterson is the property of the Lions.

Not if we lose to Philadelphia and Detroit can manage a win against either Miami or Minnesota. They're strenght of schedule is much stronger and the head to head wouldn't matter as long as there are other 5-11 teams, which there almost certainly will be.

[MichaelWinicki]

Not if we lose to Philadelphia and Detroit can manage a win against either Miami or Minnesota. They're strenght of schedule is much stronger and the head to head wouldn't matter as long as there are other 5-11 teams, which there almost certainly will be.

Based on that info, I'm feeling pretty good about this teams drafting position.

[chip_gilkey]

Not if we lose to Philadelphia and Detroit can manage a win against either Miami or Minnesota. They're strenght of schedule is much stronger and the head to head wouldn't matter as long as there are other 5-11 teams, which there almost certainly will be.

Love the sig.

[MonsterD]

Not if we lose to Philadelphia and Detroit can manage a win against either Miami or Minnesota. They're strenght of schedule is much stronger and the head to head wouldn't matter as long as there are other 5-11 teams, which there almost certainly will be.


Weird you say if there is two teams only with the same record that it is head to head that decides. I have scoured around for any mention of head to head in any circumstance (two teams only included), and I have not seen it.

From what I have heard and read head to head is never considered.

[Marktui]

I know that looking ahead to the draft is not where we wanted to be but it's now the reality of the situation.

Losing tonight leaves the bottom 6 teams like this...

Carolina 2-13

Denver 3-11

Cincinnati 3-11

Detroit 4-10

Buffalo 4-10

Dallas 5-10

At this point we would have the 6th pick. If Buffalo loses and they are at 5-10 I think we would leap them. But other than that, I don't think we get above the 5th pick.

Now there is the possibility we could beat the Eagirls and I hope we do but if not, it looks like we will have the 5th, 6th or at worse 7th pick.

Can either of these get us Peterson?

As long as we are in the top 10, I think we will be in good shape as far as picking up a player. Peterson, Fairley, Quinn, Clayborn....as long as we don't reach, we will come out with a player.

I am hoping for a pass rusher, our pass rush is horrible except for Ware. Did anyone else come even close to Skelton? But whoever falls to us I will be happy with.

[fanfromvirginia]

Weird you say if there is two teams only with the same record that it is head to head that decides. I have scoured around for any mention of head to head in any circumstance (two teams only included), and I have not seen it.

From what I have heard and read head to head is never considered.

It was just an assumption on my part so I will take your word for it. Thanks for the correction. :)

[fanfromvirginia]

As long as we are in the top 10, I think we will be in good shape as far as picking up a player. Peterson, Fairley, Quinn, Clayborn....as long as we don't reach, we will come out with a player.

I am hoping for a pass rusher, our pass rush is horrible except for Ware. Did anyone else come even close to Skelton? But whoever falls to us I will be happy with.

We will definitely be in position to get a good pash rusher. Lots of DL right where we will be picking.

To me the remaining uncertainty regards Patrick Peterson specifically -- will we have a chance and if so do we take him?

[RamziD]

As long as we are in the top 10, I think we will be in good shape as far as picking up a player. Peterson, Fairley, Quinn, Clayborn....as long as we don't reach, we will come out with a player.

I am hoping for a pass rusher, our pass rush is horrible except for Ware. Did anyone else come even close to Skelton? But whoever falls to us I will be happy with.

I agree that we need a pass rusher. A DB that is only going to patch up one of 2 big holes in the secondary is not going to make us a significantly better team next year. Like the old saying goes, Super Bowls are won in the trenches... I would like to see us focus on DL and OL this upcoming draft.

[fanfromvirginia]

I agree that we need a pass rusher. A DB that is only going to patch up one of 2 big holes in the secondary is not going to make us a significantly better team next year. Like the old saying goes, Super Bowls are won in the trenches... I would like to see us focus on DL and OL this upcoming draft.

All good points but I'm warming to the idea of Peterson. No he wouldn't solve all of our problems next year but he could be a very special player for a long time.

[ajk23az]

I would be ecstatic with either Peterson or Amukamara. I'm biased but I like Amukamara better anyways.

[Shotgun Dave]

Lotsa smart folks here so I was hoping to get an answer to this...

What is the absolute highest Dallas can draft in 2011 at this point, and which teams have to win for us to get there?

From a glance, it looks like there's a shot we could draft as high as 4th? Can that possibly be accurate?

[Manwiththeplan]

2nd, but buffalo and cincy would have to win out, which won't happen

[MonsterD]

Lotsa smart folks here so I was hoping to get an answer to this...

What is the absolute highest Dallas can draft in 2011 at this point, and which teams have to win for us to get there?

From a glance, it looks like there's a shot we could draft as high as 4th? Can that possibly be accurate?

Right it is 2nd

That sounds right on, maybe 3rd??? The lowest we could go is what I can't figure, it depends if the worst 10 or so teams have each other on the schedule still, AND then calculate for SoS etc. I think it is something like 10th-12th is the worst we could do.

[JohnsKey19]

Detroit just won. The Skins are abut to go to OT vs Jax. A win by the Skins would really help our position with Detroit also winning...

[GloryDaysRBack]

Skins WIN!!!!!!!! where do we stand now?

[RoyTheHammer]

Trade down if no Peterson. Get an OL or two and a S.

[SDogo]

Skins WIN!!!!!!!! where do we stand now?

Still 7th and has been 7th not 6th as this thread suggested.

I actually got kind of bored of trying to explain it all night last night and today but once again, the chances were VERY slim even with a loss last night that we could improve our draft position this week.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Bills can beat an unmotivated Jets next week and we leap them

And Ill hold out hope the Broncos and Bengals pull of an upset today and then beat unmotivated teams next week as well.

[GloryDaysRBack]

Still 7th and has been 7th not 6th as this thread suggested.

I actually got kind of bored of trying to explain it all night last night and today but once again, the chances were VERY slim even with a loss last night that we could improve our draft position this week.

what do we need to happen to move up?

[fanfromvirginia]

Skins WIN!!!!!!!! where do we stand now?

Okay, as nearly as I can figure we are 7th after the early games. Washington drops out of the top 11 for now and Detroit drops down to 9th. The current order is:

Carolina
Denver
Cinci
Buffalo
Arizona
SF
Dallas
Cleveland
Detroit
MinnesotaIf we lose next week to Philadelphia I think we will pick at least 6th due to strength of schedule and the fact that Arizona and SF face off in the final week so we'd leapfrog one of them. In fact, 6th would be a good place to pencil us in with a loss to Philadelphia. Cinci and Denver aren't likely to win out, Buffalo would probably lose at the Jets and somebody's going to lose in that Arizona-SF matchup. Having said that, SF's strength of schedule as of this morning was .505 and ours was .507 so an SF loss and we could jump another spot. It'll be interesting to check the SoS data later tonight.

ON EDIT: Just checked the current SoS data. Washington and SF are both .507 and Dallas is .512 so we moved a little farther away from SF, which is bad news. Also, Cleveland's SoS is now stronger than Houston's and Buffalo darn sure better not win next week because they've got the highest SoS of the bottom 12. A win next week could drop them more than 5 slots in in the order.

[SDogo]

what do we need to happen to move up?


We cant this week. 7th will be it.

In reality if anything we still stand a chance of dropping to 8th if the Texans lose and some other games go their way.

[dstew60105]

We can get to 6th next week as SF and Arizona play next Sunday, bringing one teams total to 6 wins.

[SDogo]

Okay, as nearly as I can figure we are 7th after the early games. Washington drops out of the top 11 for now and Detroit drops down to 9th. The current order is:
Carolina
Denver
Cinci
Buffalo
Arizona
SF
Dallas
Cleveland
Detroit
MinnesotaIf we lose next week to Philadelphia I think we will pick at least 6th due to strength of schedule and the fact that Arizona and SF face off in the final week so we'd leapfrog one of them. In fact, 6th would be a good place to pencil us in with a loss to Philadelphia. Cinci and Denver aren't likely to win out, Buffalo would probably lose at the Jets and somebody's going to lose in that Arizona-SF matchup. Having said that, SF's strength of schedule as of this morning was .505 and ours was .507 so an SF loss and we could jump another spot. It'll be interesting to check the SoS data later tonight.

ON EDIT: Just checked the current SoS data. Washington and SF are both .507 and Dallas is .512 so we moved a little farther away from SF, which is bad news. Also, Cleveland's SoS is now stronger than Houston's and Buffalo darn sure better not win next week because they've got the highest SoS of the bottom 12. A win next week could drop them more than 5 slots in in the order.

Good breakdown, still working on it and not going to put more time into it until the 4pm games are over but it looks like the percentages are starting to heavily favor us landing in the 6th spot.

The butt whooping GB is putting on the Giants is going to do nothing but help as well.

[fanfromvirginia]

Bills can beat an unmotivated Jets next week and we leap them

And Ill hold out hope the Broncos and Bengals pull of an upset today and then beat unmotivated teams next week as well.

We could finish 4th w/o the help of the Broncos or Bengals -- Bills win, SF loses to Arizona and our strength of schedule drops below SF's. I'm not certain that could happen but we are quite close -- .507 to .512.

[MonsterD]

Good breakdown, still working on it and not going to put more time into it until the 4pm games are over but it looks like the percentages are starting to heavily favor us landing in the 6th spot.

The butt whooping GB is putting on the Giants is going to do nothing but help as well.


Thanks FFV and Sdogo both of you must moonlight as CPAs or actuaries or something, ;)

[MarionBarberThe4th]

The Jets are locked in, the Bills beat them next week. The Bengals are beating the Chargers. They can beat an also locked in Ravens next week. So I think we can jump 2 teams next week. Im leaving alone the Ari/SF game b/c theres so many permutations w/ the SOS.

But the important thing is we already jumped Detroit, who should have been all over Peterson. And the team ahead of us should be thinking Luck/Newton and hopefully Bowers

[TOYSTER17]

If only we had one more loss.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

We could finish 4th w/o the help of the Broncos or Bengals -- Bills win, SF loses to Arizona and our strength of schedule drops below SF's. I'm not certain that could happen but we are quite close -- .507 to .512.


We played the Colts

Niners played the Raiders


Go Raiders

[Teague31]

Mallett will go high also. If three QB's go in the Top 5 that would be huge for us.

[Avery]

Mallett will be top 15, don't think he'll stretch to five. Locker is going to go lower than Tebow IMO.

Really wish this was a better OT draft, but going defense and snagging a shutdown corner or d-line is passable. We really need to sign Mankins.

[dfense]

I agree that we need a pass rusher. A DB that is only going to patch up one of 2 big holes in the secondary is not going to make us a significantly better team next year. Like the old saying goes, Super Bowls are won in the trenches... I would like to see us focus on DL and OL this upcoming draft. If they manage to land Peterson, they can draft 5 straight dlineman for all I care.

[Manwiththeplan]

Realistically we'll have the 6th pick. ARZ or SF will win next week. Jets should beat the Bills, The Ravens will beat the Bengals and the Chargers should beat the Broncos.

[fanfromvirginia]

Realistically we'll have the 6th pick. ARZ or SF will win next week. Jets should beat the Bills, The Ravens will beat the Bengals and the Chargers should beat the Broncos.


Yes, but what are the odds of all of those things happening (because that is what you're predicting)? If we lose to Philly, it's likely that at least one of those events will occur (plus, SF could lose and we could overtake them in strength of schedule).

I think if we lose to Philly, it's more likely that we'll pick better than 6th.

[SDogo]

Working on all the scenario's right now. Once I update the website I'll post an update.

[Manwiththeplan]

Yes, but what are the odds of all of those things happening (because that is what you're predicting)? If we lose to Philly, it's likely that at least one of those events will occur (plus, SF could lose and we could overtake them in strength of schedule).

I think if we lose to Philly, it's more likely that we'll pick better than 6th.

We cannot overtake SF or ARZ in SoS. And honestly, I'm predicting 3 bad teams to lose to 3 teams above .500. While it's possible that one team will win, it's hard to say it's likely that one will happen

[SDogo]

We cannot overtake SF or ARZ in SoS.

Where are you getting this from?

We cant pass Arizona but a two team swing can put us ahead of SF. It's very likely.

[tecolote]

We cannot overtake SF or ARZ in SoS. And honestly, I'm predicting 3 bad teams to lose to 3 teams above .500. While it's possible that one team will win, it's hard to say it's likely that one will happen

The Jets will rest their starters and the Chargers have nothing to play for, if anything thet both are more likely to lose.

[fanfromvirginia]

We cannot overtake SF or ARZ in SoS. And honestly, I'm predicting 3 bad teams to lose to 3 teams above .500. While it's possible that one team will win, it's hard to say it's likely that one will happen

Actually, it's not hard at all. It's basic statistics (probability). To calculate the probability of a series of distinct events all happening, you multiple the probability of each event in the series. Even though each individual event is likely (let's say 67%), the odds that all of them will happen would be 2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 8/27, which is less than 30%.

And, as others have pointed out, we can overtake SF in SoS so you're adding in another opportunity into the equation, however unlikely.

[Manwiththeplan]

Where are you guys getting the hope that we can overtake SF? We play to many common opponents and on top of that there are too many division games meaning no matter who wins, we'll add a victory to out total.

Right now our opponents have 123 wins to SF 117.

we are garunteed to pick up 8 wins next week (PHI vs us, NYG vs WSH are worth 2 each; Jax vs Hou, IND vs TEN, MIN vs DET, GB vs CHI are worth 1 each).

SF is also garunteed to pick up 8 wins (ARZ vs them, STL vs SEA are worth 2 each; KC vs Oak, Den vs SD, CAR vs ATL, TB vs NO are worth 1 each).

The games that allow us to overtake them are

TB vs NO (if NO wins, we each pick 1 game, but if TB wins, they pick up 1 and we get 0) and GB vs CHI (if GB wins we each pick up 1 game, but if CHI wins we pick up 1 game and they pick up 0).

[SDogo]

Where are you guys getting the hope that we can overtake SF? We play to many common opponents and on top of that there are too many division games meaning no matter who wins, we'll add a victory to out total.

Right now our opponents have 123 wins to SF 117.

we are garunteed to pick up 8 wins next week (PHI vs us, NYG vs WSH are worth 2 each; Jax vs Hou, IND vs TEN, MIN vs DET, GB vs CHI are worth 1 each).

SF is also garunteed to pick up 8 wins (ARZ vs them, STL vs SEA are worth 2 each; KC vs Oak, Den vs SD, CAR vs ATL, TB vs NO are worth 1 each).

The games that allow us to overtake them are

TB vs NO (if NO wins, we each pick 1 game, but if TB wins, they pick up 1 and we get 0) and GB vs CHI (if GB wins we each pick up 1 game, but if CHI wins we pick up 1 game and they pick up 0).


Based on a 17 week schedule the 49ers opponents are 122-114 and the Cowboys opponents are 123-113 as of tonight.

Your not calculating the 49ers week 17 opponent for some reason but are with Dallas.

[Manwiththeplan]

Based on a 17 week schedule the 49ers opponents are 122-114 and the Cowboys opponents are 123-113 as of tonight.

Your not calculating the 49ers week 17 opponent for some reason but are with Dallas.

I'm using the spread sheet Hos sent to me, I'll check for errors, but I believe I'm right.

[SDogo]

I'm using the spread sheet Hos sent to me, I'll check for errors, but I believe I'm right.

you have an error, trust me:D

[Manwiththeplan]

Just adding up wins

SF's opponents have 117 wins, not sure where you got 122 from

[Manwiththeplan]

you have an error, trust me:D

not seeing it? unless I have some teams records wrong

I have their schedule as

SEA 6-9
NO 10-4
KC 10-5
ATL 12-2
PHI 10-4
OAK 7-8
CAR 2-13
DEN 4-11
STL 7-8
TB 9-6
ARZ 5-10
GB 9-6
SEA 6-9
SD 8-7
STL 7-8
ARZ 5-10

adds up to 117

[SDogo]

My bad, error in my spreadsheet!

[Manwiththeplan]

Your only calculating the 49ers record through week 16

Sea 6
NO 10
KC 10
Atl 12
Phi 10
Oak 7
Car 2
Den 4
Stl 7
TB 9
Arz 5
GB 9
Sea 6
SD 8
Atl 12 (117 to this point)
Arz 5
TOTAL: 122

u counted ATL twice, which explains the extra wins

[SDogo]

not seeing it? unless I have some teams records wrong

I have their schedule as

SEA 6-9
NO 10-4
KC 10-5
ATL 12-2
PHI 10-4
OAK 7-8
CAR 2-13
DEN 4-11
STL 7-8
TB 9-6
ARZ 5-10
GB 9-6
SEA 6-9
SD 8-7
STL 7-8
ARZ 5-10

adds up to 117

Found an error in my spreadsheet with the schedule

[MarionBarberThe4th]

How would the 49ers play the Falcons twice?

[SDogo]

How would the 49ers play the Falcons twice?

Already found it but thanks

[SDogo]

In the end you are right, we can not surpass the loser of this game yet luckily it does not change the percentages as far as draft positions go once I plugged them in or it did but by only a percentage.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Already found it but thanks

Where is Adam to save us?


Even still. W/ Philly at the end our schedule, our SOS will be too high to beat-out SF and Denver

[MarionBarberThe4th]

you have an error, trust me:D

Now we all have to team up and work out this scenario:

1. We lose
2. Buffalo wins
3. Cincy wins


Can we all agree that it should make the order.......

1. Carolina
2. Denver
3. Arizona or SF
4. Dallas

[Manwiththeplan]

All in all, I still think 6th is the most likely scenario, which is fine with me. Especially since we'll be 5th in round 2.

I think the top5 shakes out like

CAR- ALuck
DEN- NFairley
CIN- DBowers
BUF- RMallet
SF- PPeterson or ARZ- PPeterson or RQuinn

[SDogo]

Where is Adam to save us?


Even still. W/ Philly at the end our schedule, our SOS will be too high to beat-out SF and Denver

that's what we just said after we found the error.

If I could get Adam involved in this it would of be ironed out a long time ago but this program is a process. Although i take pride in knowing he has referenced the web site a few times.

[SDogo]

Now we all have to team up and work out this scenario:

1. We lose
2. Buffalo wins
3. Cincy wins


Can we all agree that it should make the order.......

1. Carolina
2. Denver
3. Arizona or SF
4. Dallas
Dont drink and post people, I'm a prime example why!

[MarionBarberThe4th]

We would still pick behind the Bengals their SOS is .580 ours is .521


That means we get the better pick man.

[SDogo]

That means we get the better pick man.
holy **** I'm drunk

****ing ignore me.............i'm going to bed

[MarionBarberThe4th]

holy **** I'm drunk

****ing ignore me.............i'm going to bed


You are in no state for these kind of calculations :laugh2:

Erase that thread man. We can easily get #4

[SDogo]

You are in no state for these kind of calculations :laugh2:

Erase that thread man. We can easily get #4

Here, Adam swears by these guys

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfldraftorder.html

Their calculations say the 4th is just as much a pipe dream as mine but on paper I'm with you, it's looks possible. My mind if fried but if Adam gives these guys the legit approval then I'm confident my work is just on target.

I just dont get why it looks so different when your sitting there looking at it on paper...............

[MarionBarberThe4th]

That doesnt appear to take into account the actual games being played next week. The 2 key games are way in our favor.

And once tied w/ the Bengals and Bills even they have us w/ the edge in SOS

[SDogo]

That doesnt appear to take into account the actual games being played next week. The 2 key games are way in our favor.

And once tied w/ the Bengals and Bills even they have us w/ the edge in SOS

my numbers vary some from theirs and perhaps that's why. I take into account all 17 games and maybe you are correct but I like using them as a bench mark only because Adam pimps them out so I figure they must be somewhat legit.

Ok seriously..............I'm done. There are 2 monitors and I think I just swallowed my tongue..............

[Manwiththeplan]

Actually, it's not hard at all. It's basic statistics (probability). To calculate the probability of a series of distinct events all happening, you multiple the probability of each event in the series. Even though each individual event is likely (let's say 67%), the odds that all of them will happen would be 2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 8/27, which is less than 30%.

And, as others have pointed out, we can overtake SF in SoS so you're adding in another opportunity into the equation, however unlikely.

technically speaking, we can't overtake Denver so you can eliminate them from the equation. Then you also have to realize probabliity and statistics don't work the same in football as something with little or no vairables. Betting that you could roll a 1-4 three times on seperate dice rolls (same probability you listed) is a bad bet, but with football their's no way to calculate certain aspects.

[Manwiththeplan]

We cannot hop over Denver (haven't looked it up, but very unlikely)

Baltimore is still in a division race and at home against the Bengals, they will win.

We may get lucky with Buffalo beating the Jets, but having lost 3 out of their last 4, they will not want to lose their final game @ home, so saying we can easily get to the 4th spot is wrong and the 6th is the most likely scenario

[MarionBarberThe4th]

We cannot hop over Denver (haven't looked it up, but very unlikely)

Baltimore is still in a division race and at home against the Bengals, they will win.

We may get lucky with Buffalo beating the Jets, but having lost 3 out of their last 4, they will not want to lose their final game @ home, so saying we can easily get to the 4th spot is wrong and the 6th is the most likely scenario


Word will travel to them that the Steelers beat up on the Browns, locking them into the WC, and they will not risk injury

[fanfromvirginia]

holy **** I'm drunk

****ing ignore me.............i'm going to bed

You should not drink and calculate. (http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile-ak-snc4/hs429.ash2/71158_5220119071_2039158_n.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.facebook.com/group.php%3Fgid%3D5220119071&usg=___AWtd8Mm99xF6zIhjINNMH_sb7w=&h=354&w=200&sz=22&hl=en&start=0&sig2=vPGtWOUiR1KxCrjKe7klCQ&zoom=1&tbnid=JmnCtsQ0aExJpM:&tbnh=152&tbnw=119&ei=5wEYTYjwH4KB8gaRn9TODQ&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dyou%2Bshould%2Bnot%2Bdrink%2Band%2Bba ke%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG%26biw%3D971%26bih%3D537%26gb v%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:10%2C91&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=324&vpy=82&dur=5469&hovh=283&hovw=160&tx=70&ty=103&oei=5wEYTYjwH4KB8gaRn9TODQ&esq=1&page=1&ndsp=8&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0&biw=971&bih=537)

[fanfromvirginia]

technically speaking, we can't overtake Denver so you can eliminate them from the equation. Then you also have to realize probabliity and statistics don't work the same in football as something with little or no vairables. Betting that you could roll a 1-4 three times on seperate dice rolls (same probability you listed) is a bad bet, but with football their's no way to calculate certain aspects.

Good point on Denver and, apparently, SF's not doable either so the number of events is pretty low. That helps explain why SDogo's got the chance of landing at 6 at 67%.

As for football and statistics, yeah, you have to guess at the probabilities but the original point still stands -- with 3 separate events, you have to get up to roughly 80% probability before you would break even.

I still think we've got a half decent shot at getting the 5th pick but 6 looks much more likely (given a loss to Philadelphia).

[Manwiththeplan]

Word will travel to them that the Steelers beat up on the Browns, locking them into the WC, and they will not risk injury

Both are 1 o'clock games......

http://www.nfl.com/schedules?seasonType=REG#Week

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Both are 1 o'clock games......

http://www.nfl.com/schedules?seasonType=REG#Week


Theyre going to move some games around.

Even still I dont see how the 6th spot is more likely. The Jets cant move out of their spot so Buffalo will win.

1. Car
2. Den
3. Ari/Sf
4. Lets say Cincy loses this time
5. ?

[SDogo]

That doesnt appear to take into account the actual games being played next week. The 2 key games are way in our favor.

And once tied w/ the Bengals and Bills even they have us w/ the edge in SOS

Ok, I talked to Scott at that site and he stated that based on the remaining schedule, like opponents and probability of wins and losses (which I have an issue using because you never know what's going to happen) Dallas has a 1% chance of the 4th pick because the Texans if they lose actually have a chance to drop their SOS to .508 while the lowest we can go is .515.

So basically he is saying if we both lose the Texans schedule favor them for the tie breaker.

Tomorrow when I'm sober I will need to find this scenario.

[fanfromvirginia]

Theyre going to move some games around.

Even still I dont see how the 6th spot is more likely. The Jets cant move out of their spot so Buffalo will win.

1. Car
2. Den
3. Ari/Sf
4. Lets say Cincy loses this time
5. ?


If Buffalo wins and Cincy loses then I think it'd likely be:

Car
Den
Cincy
Ari/SF
Dallas

[Manwiththeplan]

Theyre going to move some games around.

Even still I dont see how the 6th spot is more likely. The Jets cant move out of their spot so Buffalo will win.

1. Car
2. Den
3. Ari/Sf
4. Lets say Cincy loses this time
5. ?

2 things, they will flex 1 game to sunday night and it's unlikely to be BAL vs CIN. Just off the top of my head, they will likely flex CHI vs GB. CHI fights for a bye, GB fights for playoffs.

2nd, you assume far to much with the Jets. If they had been playing better, yeah I think they rest, but having lost 3 of their last 4, I won't believe he's resting till he says it or does it.

[SDogo]

2 things, they will flex 1 game to sunday night and it's unlikely to be BAL vs CIN. Just off the top of my head, they will likely flex CHI vs GB. CHI fights for a bye, GB fights for playoffs.

2nd, you assume far to much with the Jets. If they had been playing better, yeah I think they rest, but having lost 3 of their last 4, I won't believe he's resting till he says it or does it.

they just announced they will flex the Seattle vs St. Louis game

[Manwiththeplan]

Texans have a decent shot at passing us. Right now their opponents have 126 wins (0 pending). We have 123 (126 if PHI and NO win, 125 if PHI and ATL win, 125 if MIN and NO win and 124 if MIN and ATL win).

Assuming PHI and NO win, we go into week 17 tied with SoS

Like I stated earlier we are garunteed to pick up 8 wins

PHI vs US
WSH vs NYG
IND vs TEN
Jax vs HOU
GB vs CHI
DET vs MIN

HOU is also garunteed to pick up 8 wins

Jax vs Them
IND vs Ten
PHI vs Dal
NYG vs WSH
Den vs SD
Oak vs KC

for us to remain ahead of them (they would definately take Patrick Peterson) we need the JETS and Ravens to win and the Saints and Cardinals to lose

[Manwiththeplan]

they just announced they will flex the Seattle vs St. Louis game

makes sense, I would go for CHI vs GB, but Fox probably blocked it

[Manwiththeplan]

Even still I dont see how the 6th spot is more likely. The Jets cant move out of their spot so Buffalo will win.


If the Jets lose to the Bills, that will likely help Houston pass us. We'll know more on Wednesday mourning, but if PHI beats MIN (very likely) and NO beats ATL (likely since it's in NO) then we have the same SoS. With most teams playing division games in week 17, the 2 games that will effect SoS will be BUF @ NYJ/ CIN @BAL since HOU played the JETS and Ravens and not the Bills or Bengals. While ours will be TB @ NO and ARZ @ SF. Since your scenarion involves ARZ winning (thus us gaining in the SoS department) it seems for us to overtake Buffalo, Hou would pass us.

[SDogo]

Texans have a decent shot at passing us. Right now their opponents have 126 wins (0 pending). We have 123 (126 if PHI and NO win, 125 if PHI and ATL win, 125 if MIN and NO win and 124 if MIN and ATL win).

Assuming PHI and NO win, we go into week 17 tied with SoS

Like I stated earlier we are garunteed to pick up 8 wins

PHI vs US
WSH vs NYG
IND vs TEN
Jax vs HOU
GB vs CHI
DET vs MIN

HOU is also garunteed to pick up 8 wins

Jax vs Them
IND vs Ten
PHI vs Dal
NYG vs WSH
Den vs SD
Oak vs KC

for us to remain ahead of them (they would definately take Patrick Peterson) we need the JETS and Ravens to win and the Saints and Cardinals to lose

Right on, that was basically his explanation. Guess they do know a little bit.:laugh2:

[SDogo]

for us to remain ahead of them (they would definately take Patrick Peterson) we need the JETS and Ravens to win and the Saints and Cardinals to lose

Interesting enough no matter how I look at it we get screwed either way. If the Jets beat the Bills we wont pass the Bills but will keep the Texans off our *** and if the Bills beat the Jets we will pass then Bills but the Texans are likely to jump us.

I cant figure out a scenario where we can pick ahead of the Texans and Bills.

[Manwiththeplan]

Interesting enough no matter how I look at it we get screwed either way. If the Jets beat the Bills we wont pass the Bills but will keep the Texans off our *** and if the Bills beat the Jets we will pass then Bills but the Texans are likely to jump us.

I cant figure out a scenario where we can pick ahead of the Texans and Bills.

Maybe, I made a slight error. Once again assuming PHI beats MIN and NO beats TB, we will have 126 wins, but the Texans will have 127. If the Bills win and Ravens win, the Texans will be at 136 wins. Meaning we need wither TB to beat New Orleans or SF to beat Arizona. So it's still possible.

Personally still think the Jets try to right the ship and we pick 6th, not like Buffalo will be drafting any of the players we want. Maybe in round 2, but doubtful in round 1.

[SDogo]

Maybe, I made a slight error. Once again assuming PHI beats MIN and NO beats TB, we will have 126 wins, but the Texans will have 127. If the Bills win and Ravens win, the Texans will be at 136 wins. Meaning we need wither TB to beat New Orleans or SF to beat Arizona. So it's still possible.

Personally still think the Jets try to right the ship and we pick 6th, not like Buffalo will be drafting any of the players we want. Maybe in round 2, but doubtful in round 1.


too many crazy variables.

[fanfromvirginia]

too many crazy variables.

When you find yourself enjoying reading other Cowboy fans' calculations of expected future opponent wins to determine the relative probabilities of picking 5th v. 6th in the upcoming draft which might not even occur, you will know you have found your safe place. ;)

[newlander]

5th, 6th, or 7th we sure as S$@! should be able to pick up a safety that's better than Ball and/or Sensi. WORST safeties EVER to wear a star: seriously.

[BigDave95]

Interesting enough no matter how I look at it we get screwed either way. If the Jets beat the Bills we wont pass the Bills but will keep the Texans off our *** and if the Bills beat the Jets we will pass then Bills but the Texans are likely to jump us.

I cant figure out a scenario where we can pick ahead of the Texans and Bills.

Texans beat the Jags and they have 6 wins. No longer a factor in our tiebreaker.

[DFWJC]

http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php
:pray: .............

[ghst187]

Good point.

I just looked up the current strengths of schedule and Dallas is actually in pretty good shape in terms of draft order. Of the 11 teams with between 3 and 5 wins, there are 3 teams with lower SoS -- Arizona (.462), Washington (.500), and Minnesota (.505). Then comes Dallas at .507. So we could conceivably jump Washington and Minnesota, depending on how the rest of the season plays out. After Dallas there is a pretty good drop off, meaning we probably aren't going to wind up in worse shape in terms of SoS. The teams in worse shape are: Denver (.528), Minnesota (.540), Cleveland (.551), Buffalo and Houston (.553), Detroit (.558), and Cinci (.578).

So if we lose to the Eagles, we'll finish higher in draft order than Cleveland, Houston and Minnesota, pretty much no matter what happens. We'll almost certainly finish higher than Detroit and Buffalo if either of them can manage a win. And we could still finish higher than Washington and Minnesota if neither of them manage a win. On the very off chance that Cinci or Denver manage to win out, we'd finish above them as well.

Everyone keeps talking about SoS, doesn't head to head matter? Cuz we lost head to head against Minny and Arizona.

[Manwiththeplan]

Everyone keeps talking about SoS, doesn't head to head matter? Cuz we lost head to head against Minny and Arizona.

head to head apparently is a tie breaker for teams in the same conference, if SoS is tied. NFL draft has always done head to head first.

[jimnabby]

Everyone keeps talking about SoS, doesn't head to head matter? Cuz we lost head to head against Minny and Arizona.

No, it doesn't matter.

[MonsterD]

head to head apparently is a tie breaker for teams in the same conference, if SoS is tied. NFL draft has always done head to head first.

No here is what AdamJT13 was correcting Hostile on

Head to head plays no part of Draft order. It is record then opponent winning %, then coin flip.

Hostile omitted the first divisional and then conference tiebreakers after the SoS and before the coin flip.

So example is us and Redskins tied records, our Sos is tied, then we go to our divisional records, if the Redskins is a better one in the division, then we pick first. Same for us and a likewise team in the same conference. If one is AFC and one NFC and SOs is tied then you go to the flip.

Head to head is not applicable, only in a small way if it happened to be us and the Redskins as just a part of divisional record.

[MonsterD]

This article to spells it out




NFL Draft Tiebreaking Rules

By Alan Kirk (http://www.ehow.com/members/ds_pokerp10116.html), eHow Contributor


The NFL Draft is highly anticipated by fans and teams in the NFL alike. The draft represents an opportunity for a team that struggled in the previous season to improve by adding key players. Successful teams have the opportunity to find that one player that might give them a chance to make the Super Bowl. Draft positions are determined by the official draft order, along with trading of draft positions.




Significance
The NFL Draft (http://www.ehow.com/about_4682468_nfl-draft-tiebreaking-rules.html#) is held in April, allowing draft-eligible college (http://www.ehow.com/education/) athletes to enter the league. The order of the draft is determined based on the records of the teams from the previous year, with the team with the worst record having the first draft pick. When two or more teams tie for the same record, these ties must be analyzed to determine which of the teams involved in the tie has a higher draft spot. The NFL has determined a set of rules to be used to break any ties.Function
Ties often occur between teams that make the playoffs and teams that fail to make the playoffs based on the tiebreaking rules for playoff eligibility. The team involved in this tie that did not make the playoffs will be the team that is awarded the higher draft pick. This will not affect the top-ten draft positions in the league, as these teams would not tie for a playoff position.

As an example, let's assume the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots (http://www.ehow.com/about_4682468_nfl-draft-tiebreaking-rules.html#) both have an 11-5 record. Based on the playoff tiebreaker rules (which are different than draft tiebreaker rules), the Baltimore Ravens make the playoffs. This would result in the Patriots drafting one spot before the Ravens, because the Patriots did not make the playoffs and the Ravens did.Types
For the non-playoff spots, the first step in breaking a tie for draft position is to compare the strength of schedule from the season that was just completed. To determine the strength of schedule, combine the wins and losses of all of the opponents for each team from the previous season. The team that played opponents with the higher winning percentage is awarded the higher draft position. For example, if the combined win percentage of the teams the 5-11 Kansas City Chiefs played was .550, they would draft ahead of the 5-11 St. Louis Rams (http://www.ehow.com/about_4682468_nfl-draft-tiebreaking-rules.html#), who played opponents with an average win percentage of .495 in this example.Considerations
If the strength of schedule does not break the tie, the ties are broken based on the relationship (http://www.ehow.com/relationships-and-family/) between the teams involved. If they are within the same division, the team with the lower winning percentage in that division is awarded the higher draft position in the draft order. If the teams are located within the same conference, then the tie is broken based on record within the conference, with the team that has the lower conference winning percentage getting the higher draft position.

As an example, let's say the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins have the same record at 10-6 and are both in the AFC East Division. The Dolphins won four of six games (http://www.ehow.com/hobbies-games/) against their three opponents in the AFC East and the Jets won just three of six. The Jets would draft ahead of the Dolphins in this situation.

An example of two teams in the same conference but different divisions would be the Cleveland Browns and the Oakland Raiders both finishing the season with a 5-11 record. They are in the American Football Conference, but the Browns are in the AFC North and the Raiders are in the AFC West. For this purpose, let's say the Browns went 3-9 against other AFC teams and the Raiders went 4-8 against their AFC opponents. The Browns would draft before the Raiders in this situation.Benefits
Creating these rules for tiebreakers in the NFL Draft has, for the most part, avoided the final tiebreaker. If none of the other steps break the tie for the draft position, the tie is settled through a coin toss. An example of when this tiebreaker occurs is when two or more teams are tied with the same record, and their opponents have the same winning percentage. Along with this, the teams are in opposite conferences, making their divisional and conference records irrelevant for breaking the tie.

Read more: NFL Draft Tiebreaking Rules | eHow.com (http://www.ehow.com/about_4682468_nfl-draft-tiebreaking-rules.html#ixzz19LsOPocG) http://www.ehow.com/about_4682468_nfl-draft-tiebreaking-rules.html#ixzz19LsOPocG

[UnoDallas]

If we can't get Petersen - Prince - Fairly

I take Sherrod

Doug Free played well at ROT last year in Columbo's absence and with the top LOT still on the board, why not have the flexibility of 2 athletic young bookends that are interchangeable? Sure makes game-day decisions of whittling down 53 to 45 easier, in the case of deciding on back-up OL in the case of injuries. This is a case where value equals need and is a fine pick by Dallas.

[gollum]

For the non-playoff spots, the first step in breaking a tie for draft position is to compare the strength of schedule from the season that was just completed. To determine the strength of schedule, combine the wins and losses of all of the opponents for each team from the previous season. The team that played opponents with the higher winning percentage is awarded the higher draft position. For example, if the combined win percentage of the teams the 5-11 Kansas City Chiefs played was .550, they would draft ahead of the 5-11 St. Louis Rams (http://www.ehow.com/about_4682468_nfl-draft-tiebreaking-rules.html#), who played opponents with an average win percentage of .495 in this example.


This is backwards. See the 2010 draft:
The Redskins and Chiefs had the same record, but Wash had an Opp SOS of .492 and KC has and Opp. SOS of .516. Therefore, Wash picked #4 and KC #5.

[MonsterD]

This is backwards. See the 2010 draft:
The Redskins and Chiefs had the same record, but Wash had an Opp SOS of .492 and KC has and Opp. SOS of .516. Therefore, Wash picked #4 and KC #5.


Oh er they did miss that , lol

[gollum]

Higher draft position as in lower numerically,n better one in other words, not higher in number.

That's what I was double reading myself, but the article here is wrong in its description.
It looks like we have an about even shot at picking #4(our highest possible) with Houston if we both lose and Buffalo and Cincinnati both win(not very likely). There is no way from my calculations that we will reach #2 or #3.

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Go Falcons and Vikes.............

[GloryDaysRBack]

Go Falcons and Vikes.............

Saints are going to win tonight