Draft Position Update and Scenario's

[SDogo]

No matter what happens Monday and Tuesday night we will have the 7th pick after this week although a Atlanta Win and a Vikings Win significantly improves our tie breaker situation for the final week.

1. Carolina
We have been mathematically eliminated from obtaining the #1 pick
Status: Eliminated

2. Denver
Even though Denver won and is only 1 game behind us in the win column it is now mathematically impossible for us to win the tie breaker over them eliminating us from contention for the 2nd spot.
Status: Eliminated

3. Bengals
The Bengals win today was huge. Should they pull an upset next week over Baltimore we hold a huge advantage in the SOS tie breaker. Even still, our chances at this point of landing the 3rd draft position requires a Broncos win, Bengals win, Buffalo win, Cardinals win a Seattle vs St. Louis tie and a New Orleans vs Tampa tie. In other words, I guess you can say we are technically eliminated from contention for the 3rd spot.
Status: Less then 1%

4. Buffalo
Same situation goes for Buffalo, if they can pull out an upset over the Jets we also hold a huge advantage in the SOS tie breaker. Matter of fact I believe it to be mathematically impossible for us to lose this tie breaker with Buffalo. Unfortunately because of the two teams above Buffalo on this list coupled with the fact that the 49ers and Cardinals play each other there are about 20 scenario's that eliminate us from this spot and 1 that does not which requires a slew of ties and upsets and is just to silly to mention.
Status: Less then 1%

5. Arizona
Plain and simple, there is no way we can catch Arizona on the SOS tie breaker. Arizona must win next week or they are simply a team we can not pass. Good news is this the 1st spot where we stand a mathematical chance of landing with out a act of god involved. At this point, it's also impossible for me to list all the scenario's involved that could help us land or lose this spot because it could come down to a SOS of schedule tie breaker with 8 teams and that's a lot of other teams involved with wins, losses and ties.
Status: 20% likely

6. 49ers
Huge game next week with the Cardinals. Right now the 6th spot is our most likely destination. Only a couple possible scenario's (including a Dallas win) could knock us from this spot but as of right now we are more likely to land the 5th spot then get knocked out of the 6th spot.
Status: 67% likely

7. Cowboys
Although this weeks games did not go a long way in improving our draft position this week there were some huge games that effected possible tie breakers heading into next week. Based on every possible scenario it's virtually impossible we can hold onto this spot after next week.
Status: 1%

8. Texans
Interesting enough, today's outcomes have almost completely eliminated us from having any chance of landing the 8th spot. Please forgive me if I don't list the scenario's here! lol
Status: 1%

9. Lions
Huge win today, thank you Detroit! Based on the SOS tie breaker it's not likely they can jump s again unless we beat the Eagles. There is a small mathematical chance we can drop to the 9th spot and that involves a Dallas win in every one of them coupled with two of the following teams winning (Detroit, Houston, Cleveland or Minnesota) as well as a Seahawks and Titans win.
Status: 2%

10. Browns
See above, almost exact same scenario.
Status: 4%

Chances outside the top 10:
11. 4%
12. 1%
13. Less then 1%*
14. Less then 1%*
15-32. Eliminated

*= scenario's are so utterly ridiculous that I almost did not mention them but are still possible and you need 100% to make it mathematically correct:D

Interesting notes:
*depending on who you think will beat who next week it's actually in favor of Dallas should the Eagles win Tuesday. Although it will only come into play with tie breaker scenario's

*Mondays Atlanta vs Saints game actually play's into 98% of the tie breaker procedures listed above. 90% of those favor us if the Falcons win.

*Besides the Panthers with a 100% probability of landing the 1st pick Dallas has the highest probability of landing a spot (6th at 67%) then any other team at any other spot.

[MichaelWinicki]

Thank you for your effort!

[Goldenrichards83]

Thanks Dog.

[hendog]

If SF and Arizona play next week won't we automatically jump ahead of the winner assuming we lose against the eagles?

[SDogo]

Thanks guys.

After Tuesdays Eagles vs Minny game I will post a complete "who to root for" guide for the final week based on a Dallas win and a Dallas lost.

[Woods]

Wow, that was thorough!

[SDogo]

If SF and Arizona play next week won't we automatically jump ahead of the winner assuming we lose against the eagles?

Yes and then it will be a matter of the tie breaking procedure with the loser. If it's Arizona we can not own the tie breaker over them which is why it's very important they beat SF. It's probably one of the biggest games of the week besides our own.

[Hostile]

I am going to go ahead and assume a couple of things. Eagles will beat the Vikings and Saints will beat the Falcons.

I am further going to assume these are the playoff teams.

1. Falcons
2. Bears
3. Eagles
4. Rams
5. Saints
6. Giants (Packers vs. Bears, Giants vs. Redskins next week)

1. Patriots
2. Steelers
3. Chiefs
4. Colts
5. Ravens
6. Jets

Here then are the top 20 positions.

2-13
1. Panthers

4-11
2. Broncos
3. Bengals
4. Bills

5-10
5. Cardinals
6. 49ers
7. Cowboys
8. Texans
T9. Lions
T9. Vikings
11. Browns

6-9
12. Seahawks
13. Titans
14. Redskins

7-8
15. Dolphins

8-7
16. Jaguars
17. Chargers
18. Raiders (Patriots own pick)

9-6
19. Buccaneers
20. Packers

Wildcards
21. Giants
22. Jets
23. Saints
24. Ravens

Division Winners
25. Rams
26. Colts
27. Chiefs
28. Bears
29. Eagles
30. Steelers
31. Falcons
32. Patriots

[SDogo]

I am going to go ahead and assume a couple of things. Eagles will beat the Vikings and Saints will beat the Falcons.

I am further going to assume these are the playoff teams.


That word seems to be real popular recently. Sure hope the old saying does not come back to haunt us.:laugh2:

[fanfromvirginia]

Yes and then it will be a matter of the tie breaking procedure with the loser. If it's Arizona we can not own the tie breaker over them which is why it's very important they beat SF. It's probably one of the biggest games of the week besides our own.


Okay, great work but I'm not sure how you're so certain there will be tiebreakers and that we would lose them. I don't get why a tiebreaker would be necessary for us to be above Cincinnati if our SoS is better. Either it stays a lot higher or it doesn't. Relatedly, how do we know we can't jump Denver? What am I missing?

[hendog]

Yes and then it will be a matter of the tie breaking procedure with the loser. If it's Arizona we can not own the tie breaker over them which is why it's very important they beat SF. It's probably one of the biggest games of the week besides our own.

So if the cards beat the 9ers and we lose then we can leapfrog both of them to the 5th pick? Sorry I'm stupid.

[SDogo]

So if the cards beat the 9ers and we lose then we can leapfrog both of them to the 5th pick? Sorry I'm stupid.

Yeah but there are a couple things that could happen along the way. When your talking about SOS tie breaker with two teams from different divisions that's a lot of teams that can play into the scenario.

[SDogo]

Okay, great work but I'm not sure how you're so certain there will be tiebreakers and that we would lose them. I don't get why a tiebreaker would be necessary for us to be above Cincinnati if our SoS is better. Either it stays a lot higher or it doesn't. Relatedly, how do we know we can't jump Denver? What am I missing?

I think we are headed the same direction but taking different routes.

If the Bengals win and we lose we dont need to worry about any tie breakers besides the SOS and I don't believe there is any scenario that allows the Bengals to over take us.

We cant jump Denver because the amount of unlike opponents and divisional games left does not allow for Denver opponents to accumulate enough wins to strengthen their schedule to a point we can pass them with the amount of divisional games (including our own) and like oppenents to accumulate enough loses to drop us lower.

Did that make any sense? lol

[fanfromvirginia]

I think we are headed the same direction but taking different routes.

If the Bengals win and we lose we dont need to worry about any tie breakers besides the SOS and I don't believe there is any scenario that allows the Bengals to over take us.

We cant jump Denver because the amount of unlike opponents and divisional games left does not allow for Denver opponents to accumulate enough wins to strengthen their schedule to a point we can pass them with the amount of divisional games (including our own) and like oppenents to accumulate enough loses to drop us lower.

Did that make any sense? lol

Got it. Thanks!

[Randy White]

using that order, my mini-mock for now:

1) Panthers= QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
2) Broncos= DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
3) Bengals= DT Nick Fairly, Auburn
4) Bills= OLB Robert Quinn, N.Carolina
5) * Cards= QB Blain Gabbert, Mizzou
6) * 49ers= QB Jake Locker, Washington
7) Cowboys= CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
8) Texans= CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
9) Lions= WR AJ Green, Georgia
10) Browns= DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
11) Vikings= QB Cam Newton, Auburn


*= Trade bait


The Cards and 49ers are not going to pick their QB that high, so depending on who they trade with, that list would change.

and yes, I do believe Luck will declare.

[burmafrd]

there are serious rumblings that Michigan will not go after Harbaugh; if that is the case, you add the uncertainty in the NFL and there is a real good chance that Luck stays.

[dstew60105]

using that order, my mini-mock for now:

1) Panthers= QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
2) Broncos= DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
3) Bengals= DT Nick Fairly, Auburn
4) Bills= OLB Robert Quinn, N.Carolina
5) * Cards= QB Blain Gabbert, Mizzou
6) * 49ers= QB Jake Locker, Washington
7) Cowboys= CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
8) Texans= CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
9) Lions= WR AJ Green, Georgia
10) Browns= DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
11) Vikings= QB Cam Newton, Auburn


*= Trade bait


The Cards and 49ers are not going to pick their QB that high, so depending on who they trade with, that list would change.

and yes, I do believe Luck will declare.

No way Locker or Gabbert are taken the high.

[SDogo]

there are serious rumblings that Michigan will not go after Harbaugh; if that is the case, you add the uncertainty in the NFL and there is a real good chance that Luck stays.

and with a rookie cap likely to be implemented in any new CBA he will see his last chance to cash in like a fat cow go by the way side.

There is no chance in hell he passes on the opportunity to retire with out ever playing a down by returning to Stanford and risking it all only to face a "capped" contract a year later.

[MichaelWinicki]

and with a rookie cap likely to be implemented in any new CBA he will see his last chance to cash in like a fat cow go by the way side.

There is no chance in hell he passes on the opportunity to retire with out ever playing a down by returning to Stanford and risking it all only to face a "capped" contract a year later.

You bring up a powerful variable that I hadn't thought too much about, but that is a potential game-changer for the upcoming draft and who declares.

[SDogo]

You bring up a powerful variable that I hadn't thought too much about, but that is a potential game-changer for the upcoming draft and who declares.


I think your going to see an unusual amount of JR's at least ask for a draft grade from the NFL this year and it in the end I'm pretty confident we will have a record number of JR's declare.

[SDogo]

I want to thank Manwiththeplan for pointing out an error in my draft spread sheet. I have updated it and plugged in the new numbers and the good news is it only created a less then 1% variable on all the draft positions so this post still rings 99% true. lol

[Randy White]

No way Locker or Gabbert are taken the high.

Of course not. That's why I placed an asterick next to them with the words " Trade Bait ". I see both teams trading down and getting those players but later in the draft. The 49ers could use a CB, but their QB situation is bad and the owner needs a reason to sell tickets for his new stadium coming up. The Cards, well, y'all already know their problem.

Having said that, don't understimate the incompetence of NFL GMs. Not saying it's going to happen again, but who did the Jaguars took with the 10th pick of this year's draft ? Where was that particular player supposed to go ?

And it's not that he's bad player at all, he was one of my favorites, but certainly not with the 10th pick of the draft.

[Randy White]

and with a rookie cap likely to be implemented in any new CBA he will see his last chance to cash in like a fat cow go by the way side.

There is no chance in hell he passes on the opportunity to retire with out ever playing a down by returning to Stanford and risking it all only to face a "capped" contract a year later.


Not to mention that all he needs to do is look at another QB within the same conference and learn from that mistake. There's simply too much money at stake NOT to declare.

And with the rumors of him being a package deal with his headcoach to Carolina ? ....

[SDogo]

Not to mention that all he needs to do is look at another QB within the same conference and learn from that mistake. There's simply too much money at stake NOT to declare.

And with the rumors of him being a package deal with his headcoach to Carolina ? ....


Harbaugh will get more then a few calls from Carolina and from there I dont think there is any question to who Harbaugh's pick would be if he got the job.

Side note, John Fox has hired a reality agent not to put his property up for sale but to help him look which says a lot.

[Randy White]

although the first domino piece has not fallen, it's shaking...

[VACowboy]

Awesome stuff, SD. Much appreciated.

[TheCount]

Wow, great info here. Thanks for the work man.

[eastsideboy]

since we beat texans head to head shodent they be ahead of us

[Doomsday]

So basically we will pick 6th unless Cincy beats Baltimore, then we will end up with the 5th pick. We are currently 7th but Arizona and San Fran play each other next week so we will jump one of them.

The 6th pick and that last place schedule (Arz and Car) sounds like a nice consilation prize for Buehler missing an extra point.

[Hostile]

since we beat texans head to head shodent they be ahead of usHead to head plays no part of Draft order. It is record then opponent winning %, then coin flip.

Dallas opponent winning % is .525 and Houston's is .533. Therefore they are behind us. The lower % picks first. The idea being they have the same record facing lesser teams.

[Randy White]

would Chucky and Kolb ( trade with the Beagles ) make sense for the 49ers ?

I think so.

That would give the Beagles 2 number 1 picks in a strong defensive draft..

[sonnyboy]

Fantastic work!

And it's nice to see something good come out of our 3 tough 2nd half season losses.

As much as I wanted to see us finish 9-7, it does now look like that wouldn't have qualified us for the post-season.

But here's my question......what if we win Sunday?

What's the likely drafting slot and how much could that cost us?

[SDogo]

Fantastic work!

And it's nice to see something good come out of our 3 tough 2nd half season losses.

As much as I wanted to see us finish 9-7, it does now look like that wouldn't have qualified us for the post-season.

But here's my question......what if we win Sunday?

What's the likely drafting slot and how much could that cost us?

That's a loaded question but from all my calculations and everything I have seen elsewhere we cant end up picking any lower then 14th but most likely 11th or 12th.

[hipfake08]

Thanks guys.

After Tuesdays Eagles vs Minny game I will post a complete "who to root for" guide for the final week based on a Dallas win and a Dallas lost.

Will that be with us winning and losing..

Looks like we are the late game.


And thank you for posting this.

[sonnyboy]

That's a loaded question but from all my calculations and everything I have seen elsewhere we cant end up picking any lower then 14th but most likely 11th or 12th.


Oh that sucks!

You mean one win will could send us from #6 to #14, with #11 being the best case?

[unionjack8]

re the draft and new cba i was under the impression that although there will be a draft none of the rookies drafted can be signed until a new cba is in place, hence the crop in the next draft(april 2011) will be the first to be restricted by a new rookie wage scale.

Andrew Luck will be part of the rookie wage scale whether he stays in school or not from what i hear but i may be way off base here. He'll also be stupid is as stupid does if he doesnt come out. No way on gods green earth can he do anything ti improve his stock. Screw the education he can do that when he's made 200m in 15 years time

[SDogo]

Oh that sucks!

You mean one win will could send us from #6 to #14, with #11 being the best case?


yeah, there is a slew of 5-10 or 6-9 teams right now. A win could drop us 7 spots easy.

The Bill have it the worst. A win by them and they could go from the 3rd or 4th selection to the 12th or 13th.

[AdamJT13]

Head to head plays no part of Draft order. It is record then opponent winning %, then coin flip.

That's not correct. If the teams are from the same conference, divisional and conference tiebreakers are applied before the coin flip.

That doesn't apply to us and Houston, though.

[SDogo]

That's not correct. If the teams are from the same conference, divisional and conference tiebreakers are applied before the coin flip.

That doesn't apply to us and Houston, though.

Hey, thanks for that. It's like you can read minds because I was just searching for that bit of info.:bow:

[sonnyboy]

yeah, there is a slew of 5-10 or 6-9 teams right now. A win could drop us 7 spots easy.

The Bill have it the worst. A win by them and they could go from the 3rd or 4th selection to the 12th or 13th.


I still want us to go out Sunday and deny the eagles a 1st rd bye. But this will be a nice consulation prize if we lose.

If I'm a Bills fan there's no way I'd want to see them win.

[Manwiththeplan]

That's not correct. If the teams are from the same conference, divisional and conference tiebreakers are applied before the coin flip.

That doesn't apply to us and Houston, though.

IMO head to head should trump all (If 2 teams are tied or 3, with 1 team losing to the other 2), kinda like playoff seeding