If a "Tom Brady" were to be drafted today..

[dwmyers]

LiveBallSports.com is a multi-sport blog with an analytics bent. I ran into them during a Google search for people who might be using a draft based "cost of offense" approach, and there were two articles that fit that description, both well done. I talk about those in my new article on the "cost of offenses" on my blog.

Interesting as well is LiveBlog's analysis of where a "Tom Brady" might be drafted today. They think he's a third rounder by modern evaluation. I piped up on this article and suggested that Brady suffered from what Dan Ariely calls a "decoy effect" (i.e. compared to Drew Henson, Tom suffered).

It's a cool read. I won't spoil it with an excerpt.

http://liveballsports.com/2011/05/27/fnqb-how-well-would-tom-brady-profile-as-a-draft-prospect-today/

[FootballFan1]

The reason there are no responses is because it is a situation that rarely happens, so the point is moot.

No one knows when a young QB hits the field what they will do. And in particular because most of the people drafted really are just kids. You can have all the talent in the world -- throwing, but it doesn't say a thing about how you actually play on the field with the "big guys".

What it takes -- the ability to read a defense and pure drive to succeed. And the kids that play in college have no idea what they are going to face in the NFL. The best of the best. So a guy that does well in college may not do well in the NFL. How does someone drafting judge that?? Well, they don't -- it is all just luck.

Farve is a good example of pure drive. If you look at his talents, well, not too great. And I know you guys and gals know I am a Patriot fan and that we both shared Bledsoe for a time. I had no use for the guy. But did he have talent - sure. And when he was on, was he great - sure. But he didn't cut the mustard, and in my eyes just an above average QB - never going to the HOF -- does NOT deserve it.

So Brady is one of those "once in a lifetime" lucky experiences for a team, and fan of that team.

Brady to me clearly is one of the best that played. But what, tell me, what does the guy have??? Ability sure, but drive is the answer. That flat out ability to push, push and push.

It was like when I played tennis with one of my friends when I was younger. We were equal in talent, but when I got close to beating him he got this look in his eyes, and to me it was just a game. He just was NOT going to lose. And he usually did not. It wasn't that it wasn't important to me, but really not that important. To him, it was life or death. Yikes.

It is like that in life, it is not always the brains with the winning combination to make it. It is that person that drives, drives, and drives. I will succeed, I will. I just wish I had more of that in me. Just not who I am.

[Yakuza Rich]

It's a good question. I could see the 3rd round status because he's terribly slow in the 40. He's got a much stronger arm than people give credit for though. But, Ryan Mallet has a super strong arm, is slow, and didn't get drafted until the 3rd round. Although Mallet had concerns about his off the field issues and character, he got hammered on him not being able to run a 40 time fast.

I think what this misses out on is the interview process. Let's say Brady is 22 and coming out of college, he would probably put in the best interview and be able to do the best of any QB ever at that age of articulating how he would handle a play and where he would check down to and stuff like that. That might move him up to the 1st round.

To me, the #1 thing I look for in a QB is pocket presence and how do they react to the speed of the game. Obviously, there is an adjustment to be made with the speed of the game. But, if the guy can show pretty quickly that he can get used to it...he's got a chance to make it in the league.

David Carr is the perfect example. The guy has a cannon for an arm. He has a super quick release. He can throw it amazingly accurate and he's very mobile. But, no pocket presence and he can't play a lick.

Carr has far better talents and skills at the QB position than Romo or a Jeff Garcia does. But he has nowhere near their level of pocket presence.

After that I look at throwing mechanics. The main thing I don't want to see from a QB is a windmill style windup. They can throw sidearm and I'm fine with that. Plenty of great QB's threw 3/4's and side arm. Hell, I think nobody made more with less than Bernie Kosar and there were some throws that looked underhand.

Kosar is a great study of how to do it as a QB with limited athleticism and skills. He had god awful looking footwork and delivery. Perhaps the slowest QB in the history of the NFL. But, he had a few great things going for him. He had good pocket presence, he had uncanny accuracy, he was smart...and he had this weird throwing motion where he could throw one way while looking the other way. It was almost like defending a no-look pass in basketball. It's funny that Belichick preferred Vinny Testaverde...a super strong arm with a great throwing motion and decent athleticism (well, when he was younger), but a guy that had mediocre pocket presence and stared down receivers badly. I don't think I ever saw a QB have more DB's that break on a ball as much as Testaverde.

So to me, there are tangible things one can look at to determine a QB's chance of success in the NFL. Of course, it all depends upon how the coaching staff and organization develop that QB.






YR

[FootballFan1]

Good post Yakuza.

But all that being said, it is all just luck. The right team, the right coach, the right everything.

Magic happens sometimes, and to me it is mostly pure luck.

Bledsoe had the same talent around him before Brady took over, and we had a losing season at that point. And the young kid comes in and wins a SB. Would that have happened with Bledsoe -- no. Always an excuse with that guy.

Desire. You cannot measure desire. They would all say they want to win, but just how badly??? Talent has a role, sure. But desire is something you cannot measure with a kid coming out of college. And that is kind of intandgible, kind of like a person that comes out of no where and is a success in business - or whatever.

If it was easy, then every team would draft an unknown and say, see, I told you so.

Magic happens sometimes.

[dwmyers]

The reason there are no responses is because it is a situation that rarely happens, so the point is moot.


Strangely enough, some decent commentary happened anyway, thanks to Yakuza Rich.

I posted not really expecting commentary. I was hoping just to push 5-10 folks to take a look at the blog on the other end. They do good work, even if they are Redskins fans.

D-

[Yakuza Rich]

Strangely enough, some decent commentary happened anyway, thanks to Yakuza Rich.

Sure beats arguing about the lockout





YR

[Doomsday101]

Brady no doubt has proven himself but how much of who drafted him played a part in his success? Going to the Pats and playing under Belicheck I think has alot to do with Brady success. I think he would have been good no matter where he had gone but maybe not to the extent he has seen in NE. Had the Lions drafted him instead how different would his career have been?

[DFWJC]

Brady, Bradford or Ryan don't seem too dissimilar to me. Coming out, Bradford was stronger for sure. Ryan a more of a resume, I suppose. Bradford came from a team that threw it more., but Brady did set some Michigan single-season passing records.

But I agree that it is his heart and work ethic on top of skill set that have set him apart. Plus it obviously didn't hurt to be playing in New England.

No doubt, there was luck involved here in a big way.

[Doomsday101]

Here was one of the draft profiles on Brady

Tom Brady Positives: Good height to see the field. Very poised and composed. Smart and alert. Can read coverages. Good accuracy and touch. Produces in big spots and in big games. Has some Brian Griese in him and is a gamer. Generally plays within himself. Team leader.

Negatives: Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the ’99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength. Can get pushed down more easily than you’d like. Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush. Lacks a really strong arm. Can’t drive the ball down the field and does not throw a really tight spiral. System-type player who can get exposed if he must ad-lib and do things on his own.

Summary: Is not what you’re looking for in terms of physical stature, strength, arm strength and mobility, but he has the intangibles and production and showed great Griese-like improvement as a senior. Could make it in the right system but will not be for everyone.

[DFWJC]

Here was one of the draft profiles on Brady

Tom Brady Positives: Good height to see the field. Very poised and composed. Smart and alert. Can read coverages. Good accuracy and touch. Produces in big spots and in big games. Has some Brian Griese in him and is a gamer. Generally plays within himself. Team leader.

Negatives: Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the ’99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength. Can get pushed down more easily than you’d like. Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush. Lacks a really strong arm. Can’t drive the ball down the field and does not throw a really tight spiral. System-type player who can get exposed if he must ad-lib and do things on his own.

Summary: Is not what you’re looking for in terms of physical stature, strength, arm strength and mobility, but he has the intangibles and production and showed great Griese-like improvement as a senior. Could make it in the right system but will not be for everyone.
Well, at least they got the poor build part right....the positives were dead on. lol
Those photos of him at the combine are comical.

Still, it's terrible, inaccurate assessments like this that hurt him. A system QB at a running achool...nver heard of that one. Poor arm strength? I'd say was arm is plenty good. The guys was skinny thoough.

Just call Brady the anti-JaMarcus Russell.

One was way over-evaluated based on purely physical tools and body appearance and the other was way under-valued based on much of the same.

They both are the extremes that show that there are still big flaws in the evalautions of QBs (though way better now than when Brady came out).

[Doomsday101]

Well, at least they got the poor build part right. Those photos of him at the combine are comical.

Still, it's terrible, inaccurate assessments like this that hurt him.

Just call Brady the anti-JaMarcus Russell.

One was way over-evaluated based on purely physical tools and body appearance and the other was way under-valued based on much of the same.

They both are the extremes that show that there are still big flaws in the evalautions of QBs (though way better now than when Brady came out).

I see many of the same things with Colt McCoy and when you look at his draft profile it is very simular to that of Brady. I think Colt being drafted by the Browns will end up hurting him. I know some will say they are different but coming out of college they really were not. Brady going to the Pats and the system they have I think was a big benifet to Brady and like I said had he been drafted by the Lions I doubt many would be talking about him

[dwmyers]

To quote from my last blog article..

http://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2011/06/15/the-massey-thaler-study-and-other-value-propositions/

Excerpt..

In the case of Tom Brady, the factors are well discussed here (http://liveballsports.com/2011/05/27/fnqb-how-well-would-tom-brady-profile-as-a-draft-prospect-today/). I’d suggest that decoy effects (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decoy_effect), as described by Dan Ariely in his book (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0061353248) Predictably Irrational (p 15, pp 21-22), affected both Tom Brady (comparisons to Drew Henson) and Drew Brees (compared to Vick). Further, Vick was so valued the year he was drafted that he surely affected the draft position of Quincy Carter and perhaps Marques Tuiasosopo (i.e. a coattail effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coattail_effect)). If I were to estimate of the coattail effect for Q, it would be about two rounds of draft value.

[DFWJC]

To quote from my last blog article..

http://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2011/06/15/the-massey-thaler-study-and-other-value-propositions/

Excerpt..
There is truth here, imo.