dwmyers
09-26-2011, 12:43 PM
http://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2011/09/26/issues-with-pro-football-focuss-new-passer-rating-formula/
An excerpt..
On August 15th, Pro Football Focus introduced a new passer rating formula. It is:
Ranking = 4.66667*[ 20*Completions + 20*Drops + Yards in Air +20*Tds - 45*Ints ]/(Attempts – Spikes – Throw Aways)
There are some interesting ideas in this formula, but it seems seriously flawed from my point of view. Complaints in order are:
1. It is double counting yards.
2. It is trying to add two different kinds of yardage metrics in the same formula.
3. It doesn’t seem to understand the origin of the TD and interception terms it actually is using.
4. Items 1 and 3 interact in ways that I suspect the author never intended, yielding a scoring model that seriously undervalues turnovers.
We’ll address each of these issues in turn.
An excerpt..
On August 15th, Pro Football Focus introduced a new passer rating formula. It is:
Ranking = 4.66667*[ 20*Completions + 20*Drops + Yards in Air +20*Tds - 45*Ints ]/(Attempts – Spikes – Throw Aways)
There are some interesting ideas in this formula, but it seems seriously flawed from my point of view. Complaints in order are:
1. It is double counting yards.
2. It is trying to add two different kinds of yardage metrics in the same formula.
3. It doesn’t seem to understand the origin of the TD and interception terms it actually is using.
4. Items 1 and 3 interact in ways that I suspect the author never intended, yielding a scoring model that seriously undervalues turnovers.
We’ll address each of these issues in turn.