Remember That Guy Who Said Philly Would *Not* Make the Playoffs...

[Yakuza Rich]

Hey, I'm not always kooky. Sometimes, I'm right.

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=214792

Since 1999...only 48% of the teams that WON their division, went onto the playoffs the very next season.

That's less than half.

Read it again...

Win the division and you are more likely to MISS the playoffs the next season than you are to make it.

In fact, in the last 3 seasons...only 37.5% of the divisional winners made the playoffs the last 3 seasons

AND

Notice a trend?

These teams that win the division and miss the playoffs the following year usually have an injured QB.

And the QB's that get injured typically are ones that have been injured before

AND

As great as the Eagles seem like they are now, I do believe they fit the profile of a team that wins the division one year and then misses the playoffs the next season (injury prone starting QB). And the Cowboys fit the profile of a team that has a losing record one year and then makes the playoffs the next season (veteran QB who is at least decent, new coach, new D-Coordinator, high draft pick).


The NFL is a SYSTEM of parity. It's what I've been saying for awhile now.









YR

[casmith07]

*back pat*

That'll do donkey, that'll do.

[Sam I Am]

:lmao2: :lmao:

Nothing like a self back patting in an "I told you so" thread to make people know you require acceptance to feel good about yourself.

If you truly knew what was going on, you would be right more often and wouldn't require an "I told you so" threads to let people know. People would already know.

A stopped clock is right twice a day and it doesn't create "I told you so" threads to let me people know it. Be right more often and you wouldn't either.

[Dave_in-NC]

*back pat*

That'll do donkey, that'll do.



:lmao:

[Yakuza Rich]

If you truly knew what was going on, you would be right more often and wouldn't require an "I told you so" threads to let people know. People would already know.

A stopped clock is right twice a day and it doesn't create "I told you so" threads to let me people know it. Be right more often and you wouldn't either.

How much more often do I need to be right?

There were plenty of people here who said that this would *never* happen. Despite the fact that I showed a logical reason as to why it could happen based upon historical data.

I never stated that it was impossible for the Eagles to make the playoffs. I did say that I think they were in trouble and backed it up with FACTS, historical trends and logical reasoning.

But, people like yourself could not accept that.

My point is...it's easy for people like yourself to spout off platitudes than it is to examine the evidence with an open mind. I took a lot of flak for it even though I was presenting *facts.* Now you know how it feels when you wind up being wrong.






YR

[DFWJC]

Tough crowd
:laugh2:

[1fisher]

:yawn:

[Yakuza Rich]

Tough crowd
:laugh2:

I actually enjoy the Bobby Heenan type responses.









YR

[tupperware]

Not sure what the big deal is, it was about 50% which means it could have went either way, to be honest. A coin flip.

[Yakuza Rich]

Not sure what the big deal is, it was about 50% which means it could have went either way, to be honest. A coin flip.

That's what the historical trends shows.

But, conventional football platitudes say that Eagles would win the division because they 'won the offseason' by signing such high priced FA's and having Andy Reid and Mike Vick.

At best, I could only get from the critics that 'you can't predict injuries' despite the historical trends showing that QB's who have an injury history...tend to get injured. And Vick has an injury history.

Hopefully, if the Cowboys win the division they will be aware of this as those who don't learn from history...








YR

[visionary]

YR, I thought your initial post before the season (that you have quoted here) was very insightful and well-thought out

you deserve a pat on the back

[JIMMYBUFFETT]

YR, I thought your initial post before the season (that you have quoted here) was very insightful and well-thought out

you deserve a pat on the back

He'll get nothing and like it.

[ABQCOWBOY]

Good call Rich. I will say that I did not believe they would be as good as they are either but I thought it would be because they would be unable to run the ball and stop the Run. I never dreamed that they would be as bad as they are today or that they would be unable to throw the ball with consistency.

Weird year.

[Idgit]

He'll get nothing and like it.

:p: ...

[JonJon]

Great job. I also predicted they would miss the playoffs. I had them as a 9 win team...they might not even get that.

[Yakuza Rich]

Good call Rich. I will say that I did not believe they would be as good as they are either but I thought it would be because they would be unable to run the ball and stop the Run. I never dreamed that they would be as bad as they are today or that they would be unable to throw the ball with consistency.

Weird year.

It's a system of parity.

Which was my point all along.

Think about all of those teams in the past that we 'never dreamed of missing the playoffs the following year.' Hell, look at the Cowboys in 2010. Tell me who saw us going 1-7 to start the season?

I think with many people here, they just hate Jerry and it's easier to blame Jerry as this horrible owner and conclude a 1-7 start was entirely possible because Jerry is, in their words, incompetent.

The reality is that the NFL is a system of parity and we should now better understand how a team like the Eagles could miss the playoffs and the pitfalls of winning the division.

Personally, I would be tickled to death if we could make the playoffs and not win the division. Have at it Giants :D







YR

[Yakuza Rich]

He'll get nothing and like it.

http://i440.photobucket.com/albums/qq122/wehrjohn/spaulding.jpg









YR

[silverbear]

Hey, I'm not always kooky. Sometimes, I'm right.

Even a blind hog finds an acorn every once in a while...

:D

I'm just goofin' on ya, Rich... you are, and always have been, one of our more reasonable and interesting posters...

[casmith07]

For the record, YR, I agreed with you.

But no need to self-high-five like DDP ;)

[Rynie]

For the record, YR, I agreed with you.

But no need to self-high-five like DDP ;)

Pretty sure I've always said the same thing, PLUS my dad can beat up BOTH your dads. :D

[Yakuza Rich]

For the record, YR, I agreed with you.

But no need to self-high-five like DDP ;)

I believe in the VICTORY LAP!





:D





YR

[ThreeSportStar80]

GREAT call YR, I'm laughing at all the butt sore Eagirls fans walking around....

[Hostile]

I remember that thread. Nice to look back through it.

[casmith07]

I remember that thread. Nice to look back through it.

The funny part is looking back and seeing the people that were 180 degrees the other way :D

[ninja]

I thought the Eagles were a lock to make the playoffs when they got Namdi. I still don't like the Eagles hanging around. I do not want to see them run the table and squeak in at 9-7.

After one more Eagle loss, you can pat yourself in the back all you want. Until then, :shush: :)

[Yakuza Rich]

GREAT call YR, I'm laughing at all the butt sore Eagirls fans walking around....

I was thinking the same thing as well.

To me, I'm not calling people out based on the opinion of how a Cowboys player will do or to that effect. I am talking about the Eagles' failure, something I predicted and with good, sound logic based upon historical trends. Yet, there are people here upset with the fact that I accurately predicted the Eagles' failure.

There are plenty of people here that like the Eagles because when they have success, it makes it easy for them to chant their favorite mantra 'Jerry sucks.' And then when future arguments happen, they can always refer to the Eagles as 'the way to run an organization' (although it's a bit preposterous since they have yet to win a Super Bowl while Jerry has 3 rings).

So when the Eagles suck, they can't really use that argument in the current season. And when the next offseason rolls around, their argument is now weakened by their failure the year before.

While I hate the Eagles, I don't think they are incompetent as an organization since Lurie has taken over as the owner. However, I don't think they are impervious to the system of parity the NFL has created and the fact that history has shown that scrambling QB's tend to get injured more, particularly if they are undersized QB's like Vick. And to top it off, QB's that have a history of injury like Vick...tend to get injured (even Roethlisberger is badly banged up, which I predicted using historical data).

But instead of looking at it that way, some of the closet Eagles fans here who love the fact that when they win they can use it to bag on Jerry Jones, could not (and still cannot) cop to the fact that those Eagles do have some major holes in their football philosophies.







YR

[RoyTheHammer]

:laugh2:


Ah, the "pat myself on the back"/ "I told ya so" threads. That's 2 this week about the Eagles already. Not bad.

I think, in all honesty though, alot of posters accurately predicted the Eagles not doing as well as most of the analysts and "experts" over at ESPN predicted. The Eagles did something very unlike what they've usually done with their organization going out and buying all these "star" players in a single offseason and when you inject all these different ego's into the locker room all at once, it makes it pretty hard to find chemistry right away. Takes a team to win, not a collection of stars. I think Reid is going to be the scapegoat in all of this, though i don't believe he's the big problem they have.

[RoyTheHammer]

*back pat*

That'll do donkey, that'll do.

:laugh2:

[CoCo]

Hey, I'm not always kooky. Sometimes, I'm right.

The NFL is a SYSTEM of parity. It's what I've been saying for awhile now.


I didn't read your entire post from the original thread you linked. But I did read the headline where you said Dallas MIGHT & Philly MIGHT NOT. If that is as far as you went I'm not sure I'd call that a bold prediction. But whatever, just glad to see how things have developed thus far.

Regarding parity, its simply very, very true. Such a fine line between NFL success and failure. 7-4 this year could very easily be 4-7 if we had gone with someone besides Bailey at kicker. Or like last year, its a short trip to 1-7 when things don't go right. Or for the Colts, 0-11 if your starting QB goes down.