You Heard It Here First...maybe?

[Chuck 54]

All the mock draft experts are predicting their crazy ideas, so here's my prediction.

I don't think Parcells will have enough interest in DJ or Merriman to use the 11th pick on them, even if they're there. Both are great athletes but both have some negatives being reporting about them, be it toughness or production.

I also don't think he'll be so sold on James that he'll want to use that #11 on the DE when there are so many other DE's who may turn out to be just as productive...after all, Dallas has the depth to go with a situational pass rusher if need be.

Unless Braylon Edwards drops (won't happen) or Mike Williams is Parcells new love toy (no proof), I think it makes more sense to trade out of the 11 spot.

The 20 spot will have some takers who want to move up for a player they are surprised to see there, but it won't be a great coup. That #11 slot will be worth much much more when it comes to draft picks than the #20 slot...besides, there are going to be some very attractive players still on the board at #20 who are well worth the selection whereas the #11 slot may not actually produce the superstar it should.

Nope, I really think Parcells will drop from 11 at least once, maybe twice, and make this a very deep draft for the Dallas Cowboys, especially on day 1.

I won't be at all surprised to see us draft Mark Clayton, WR with one pick and select a guy like Pollack, Tuck, or even Cody USC with a lower pick. Then the real fun will begin with extra picks in rounds 2 and 3 which will enable us to either bring in more bodies or move about in order to get the guys in rounds 2 and 3 that we really covet.

All of this is predicated on two ideas: 1. that we sign an OT before the draft and 2. that we don't make the deal for Howard.

If we don't sign Terry or another OT before the draft, then it would not surprise me 1 bit to see us position ourselves for a RT who can possibly start right away. If we feel the deal for Howard is going to go through, then it makes no sense to pay round 1 money to another DE or to a blitzing LB.

I believe we'll make the deal for Howard and get a RT in FA...then the draft is about impact guys and guys who can compete.

Everything that occurs in round 1 will depend on what we get done or don't do at DE and OT before the draft. Along with FS, DE and OT are the two most critical positions right now where a rookie could contribute soon...LB is the next spot, but I have a feeling we'll be looking at a round 2 LB rather than one of the top guys.

[Doomsday101]

If the talent is so good late in the 1st why would a team want to trade for the 11th spot when supposedly all the talent late is just as good as it is early in the draft?

[ABQCOWBOY]

If the talent is so good late in the 1st why would a team want to trade for the 11th spot when supposedly all the talent late is just as good as it is early in the draft?

I think the answer here is because the talent, at certain positions, is not what we need. For example, Heath Miller is not going to do us much good but this guy is going to be coveted by someone. Same with Barron or one of the WRs. There are a few players here that teams will try to trade up for, I think. I agree with Wayne here.

[ddh33]

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a trade down or two. I just don't think there's a "must have" guy who is going to be on the board.

I do think that one of the RBs will be available at #11. They usually slip. I'm hoping that some team will fall in love with one and want to move back up.

I also think that there isn't a ton of difference in the pass rushers in this draft. You could argue that the best pure pass rusher in the draft is someone like Daryl Blackstock. Behind that, most people have their own favorites. It seems to me that with no clear cut favorite, that Bill may feel like he can get a guy who is practically just as good while still getting picks. That's exactly what happened last year.

With all of these things in mind, it just seems to me that moving down is going to be a likely possibility.

[Etonicas]

If the talent is so good late in the 1st why would a team want to trade for the 11th spot when supposedly all the talent late is just as good as it is early in the draft?

To get more draft picks maybe?

[Doomsday101]

I think the answer here is because the talent, at certain positions, is not what we need. For example, Heath Miller is not going to do us much good but this guy is going to be coveted by someone. Same with Barron or one of the WRs. There are a few players here that teams will try to trade up for, I think. I agree with Wayne here.

I doubt Miller is going in the top 11 picks very few TE ever go that quick in the draft. As for WR I think either of the top 2 would help fill a need for the Cowboys. What I'm most concerned about is messing around and not getting a quality player because someone felt he would be there later in the draft. Gil Brandt once wrote an artical on that very subject teams that like a player but think they could get him a few pick later only to walk away from the draft without getting what you really wanted.

[LA=Pancakemaker]

We will see, we wont be giving our picks away- we have learned that lesson ( ala Galloway)

[junk]

If we don't sign Terry or another OT before the draft, then it would not surprise me 1 bit to see us position ourselves for a RT who can possibly start right away. If we feel the deal for Howard is going to go through, then it makes no sense to pay round 1 money to another DE or to a blitzing LB.



I think the team would like to add a DE AND a blitzing LB. Think how much better the secondary would be with a legit pass rush.

[junk]

If the talent is so good late in the 1st why would a team want to trade for the 11th spot when supposedly all the talent late is just as good as it is early in the draft?

Gotta find a dance partner and I think that could be tricky this year. Might just have to stay at 11 and take the best player you can.

[Doomsday101]

To get more draft picks maybe?

From? and where? I don't think you can go into the draft thinking of a trade that may not exsist. If a team wants to move up to 11 then let them come to us and if the offer is worth it then fine but I don't think you can bank on a trade taking place

[Chuck 54]

I think the answer here is because the talent, at certain positions, is not what we need. For example, Heath Miller is not going to do us much good but this guy is going to be coveted by someone. Same with Barron or one of the WRs. There are a few players here that teams will try to trade up for, I think. I agree with Wayne here.
and let's realize that not all gm's think the way Parcells does...does anyone? I don't think he'll fall in love with a guy like Merriman or DJ or the CB's...someone who wants a LB or DE or CB or OL or even DT will think the highest rated guy is worth moving up for...it always happens. If we sign Howard, there's not a DE in the draft who would get that much playing time. There's not a DT who's going to do anything more than earn some rotation time due to Glover and Ferguson...we're set at CB with guys who have experience....we have our RB and won't want another one in round 1...same with TE. We just drafted a OT and OG on day one last year. Frankly, as bad as our record was, it's going to be difficult for a drafted player to step into a starting spot right away, assuming we take care of the OT and DE spots.

It makes more sense to move down from 11, gather quality picks, get a WR who can make an impact right away as a #3,#4 guy, grab a tough LB like the kid from Tennesee, and then find a FS and some more depth and competition. I'd love to take Matt Jones in round 2...maybe even the top kicker if we have extra picks anyway...that's a position that could make a huge impact immediately.

[Doomsday101]

Gotta find a dance partner and I think that could be tricky this year. Might just have to stay at 11 and take the best player you can.

I agree with you, It was reported the 9ers were looking to trade the #1 overall and no one has been calling. Come draft day that may change as teams see others making a run on certain position. Bottom line for me I don't want to walk out of the draft with the 3rd best pass rusher or not getting the best player at a certain position because we fricked ourselfs. Extra 3rd or 2nd is not bad but the highest rated players will not be there and the question marks on players only get bigger later in the draft.

[Chuck 54]

I think the team would like to add a DE AND a blitzing LB. Think how much better the secondary would be with a legit pass rush.
The point is that if we sign Howard and have a starting DL of Ellis, Glover, Ferguson, and Howard, the drafted kid will not step in and be a starter at all. #11 is pretty high for a backup who may be a backup for years.

You have a better argument at LB, but you aren't going to play a 4-3 and line up Merriman at 272 or Pollack at OLB and blitz them much...that's the whole point of signing Howard and Ferguson and improving the DL's rush.

If Howard isn't signed, we need a DE.
If Howard is signed, we perhaps need a traditional LB....DJ is most likely gone, and Dallas reportedly isn't very intrigued with him anyway...but we all know not to trust reports....I could see us drafting a satisfactory LB at the end of round 1 on in round 2....there are solid guys after DJ, like the kid from Tenn.

As I've said, right now we need a DE or blitzing LB and an RT, but we may need neither on draft day.

[Chuck 54]

Gotta find a dance partner and I think that could be tricky this year. Might just have to stay at 11 and take the best player you can.
Perhaps....but I think there will be some guys on the board at 11, like the last of the big three RB's, or Merriman, or the best OT, or even the best DT....I think there will be quite a bit of interest in the #11 slot based on the mock drafts.

[ABQCOWBOY]

I doubt Miller is going in the top 11 picks very few TE ever go that quick in the draft. As for WR I think either of the top 2 would help fill a need for the Cowboys. What I'm most concerned about is messing around and not getting a quality player because someone felt he would be there later in the draft. Gil Brandt once wrote an artical on that very subject teams that like a player but think they could get him a few pick later only to walk away from the draft without getting what you really wanted.

Actually, since 2000, there have been 9 TEs taken in the first round. Of those nine, three have been top 15 picks. You look at a guy like Miller and and there are a lot of scouts who have this guy ranked as a top 10, overall, player. He's probably the only TE ready to come in and contribute day 1. I can see teams trying to move up to get him. Barron is the same deal. We don't really need a LT but if a team does? Anybody can fall in love with a player. One of the backs maybe, could be anybody. Bottom line, the only real, must have need, IMO, that would merrit the 11th over all pick is a DE. If there's not one there that we love, then I say trade down. No other position is a must have with a first round pick in my mine. I think good players will be there throughout the 2nd round. This is a deep draft IMO. If trading down is the thing to do, then we should do that. It makes sense to get the most value.

[Chuck 54]

From? and where? I don't think you can go into the draft thinking of a trade that may not exsist. If a team wants to move up to 11 then let them come to us and if the offer is worth it then fine but I don't think you can bank on a trade taking place
Explain that to Jimmy johnson...I think he proved there are always guys who want to move up, even if it's just a few slots...that's why you may see us move down 3-4 spots and then move down again

[Doomsday101]

Explain that to Jimmy johnson...I think he proved there are always guys who want to move up, even if it's just a few slots...that's why you may see us move down 3-4 spots and then move down again

If it is a few spots that is one thing but there has to be a point that ending up with some late 2nd rd pick is not worth losing a top player. As for Jimmy he has had some shatty picks as well, he drafted 4 RB at Miami and still did not get it right which was why the Dolphins went after Ricky Williams none of Jimmy picks did a dog gone thing.

[booboo]

I really don't like anyone that "should" be available to us at either the #11 or the #20.

I wouldn't mind JJ doing some investing and trade these two picks for a possible blockbuster deal next year.

OK, shoot me now.

[ABQCOWBOY]

Perhaps....but I think there will be some guys on the board at 11, like the last of the big three RB's, or Merriman, or the best OT, or even the best DT....I think there will be quite a bit of interest in the #11 slot based on the mock drafts.

Really, for us, the question becomes a matter of rating. For example, if we like a DJ or a Merriman, do we like them that much more the a Blackstock or a Burnett or a Wallace? I mean, if a team puts together a nice deal, I think it's foolish to pass it up because you might have a certain player rated marginally better then the next guy on your list.

[ddh33]

I know everyone keeps predicting that there won't be much movement in this draft because there are no marquee players. I actually think that is the exact reason why there WILL be a lot of movement. I think teams are going to value player A equal to player B. For that reason, a lot of teams may be willing to move up to address "need" positions.

[Rockytop6]

Wayne, I sure hope you are right. If the player(s) we want is not there at # 11 or # 20, then I hope we trade down but not too far. This draft according to the
"experts" is pretty even and pretty deep from the middle of the 1st to the last of the 2nd. There are several excellent players I would like to have who will be there the first part of rd 2.

Someone who is projected to go in the top 10-12 will fall and somebody will want to move up to get him. JJ and BP are pretty good in sniffing out these kind of situations.

[Portland Fanatic]

Some of these posts have some valid points...this years draft has me by the ba11s...I gotta say. I thought I had it figured out that we would grab Merriman, then Spears if there at #20, if not Sean Cody...and thus the 3-4 is born...

BUT now with the Howard rumors my thinking is all screwed up...Howard is not a 3-4 player...straight up 4-3 guy. If we do indeed want him, then BP is not locked into turning this team into a 3-4 team like I thought he may...then again, maybe this is all a smoke screen to get pressure off Merriman and Spears...

Bottomline...Right now I have no clue what draft day will bring. Maybe we trade our 2nd for Howard and 4-3 is here forever...maybe we make a last minute move and trade our #11 for a 27 year old Abraham...BP favorite. Maybe we draft Merriman...hmmmm, then 3-4 is still an option, or maybe we draft Mike Williams...or maybe we draft James...then we lock ourselves to 4-3....

Can you follow my logic??? Neither can I at this point. All I can say is pull up a seat, get some beer and popcorn because we will have a show this year.

Oh yeah, maybe we trade #20 for a player and 1st next year with a deep DT class....Hmmmm.

[InmanRoshi]

I really think Barron is our best lure for a trade down. There are still a lot of teams with holes at left tackle because the tackle market was so weak in free agency. And there is no way he makes it past San Diego and Houston with the next two picks, because they both need left tackles in a bad way. So someone will probably target that #11 pick as the last possible pick Barron will be on the board.

[CoCo1]

I'm starting to think more and more that Wayne's scenario here is very possible.

It all comes down to what Dallas' specific draft board looks like. Does Parcells view this draft like the "experts?" ie are there several DE's that he see's as relative equals? If so, moving down makes total sense.

No one has a clue what Parcells is thinking about specific players. He may think Merriman is the next Mike Mamula or he may think he's the next LT. And THAT (use your own college prospect) is what will drive this draft for Dallas.

Parcells is not afraid to go against conventional wisdom at all. That is why we have Julius Jones and not Stephen Jackson.

[jobberone]

I think Dallas will try to get some extra picks without hurting themselves. How they do that and if they can find someone to trade with without dropping too far or waiting for next year is problematic.

They will entertain offers and do their best.

Personally I'd like to see an extra 2nd and a third.

[Portland Fanatic]

Think of this years draft like the niners did in the 80's when there was not a clear cut top rated class, but a draft that had a lot of good talent in 2nd through 4th rounds....

Again there are only a few top player this year, but many good players...small list and examples of players that most likely will be around from #20 on down...and a reason maybe to get as many 2nd and 3rd rounders as possible this year.

Mark Clayton
Erasmus James
Brodney Pool
Kevin Burnett
Justin Tuck
David Baas
Shaun Cody
Demarcus Ware
Marlin Jackson
Roddy White
Khalif Barnes
Adam Terry
Matt Roth
David Pollack
Anntajj Hawthorne
Luis Castillo
Josh Bullocks
Channing Crowder
Barrett Rudd
Odell Thurman
Kirk Morrison
Lance Mitchell
Darryl Blackstock
Ernest Shazor
Rian Wallace
Marcus Johnson

[booboo]

"It all comes down to what Dallas' specific draft board looks like. Does Parcells view this draft like the "experts?" "

I bet if you wanted to get into Bills draft board all you would have to do is see what players and positions he's most pissed at and work your way down that board.

Im sure that some on this forum can imagion whom bill is pissed at better than me, so sound off.

[JackMagist]

All the mock draft experts are predicting their crazy ideas, so here's my prediction.

I don't think Parcells will have enough interest in DJ or Merriman to use the 11th pick on them, even if they're there. Both are great athletes but both have some negatives being reporting about them, be it toughness or production.

I also don't think he'll be so sold on James that he'll want to use that #11 on the DE when there are so many other DE's who may turn out to be just as productive...after all, Dallas has the depth to go with a situational pass rusher if need be.

Unless Braylon Edwards drops (won't happen) or Mike Williams is Parcells new love toy (no proof), I think it makes more sense to trade out of the 11 spot.

The 20 spot will have some takers who want to move up for a player they are surprised to see there, but it won't be a great coup. That #11 slot will be worth much much more when it comes to draft picks than the #20 slot...besides, there are going to be some very attractive players still on the board at #20 who are well worth the selection whereas the #11 slot may not actually produce the superstar it should.

Nope, I really think Parcells will drop from 11 at least once, maybe twice, and make this a very deep draft for the Dallas Cowboys, especially on day 1.

I won't be at all surprised to see us draft Mark Clayton, WR with one pick and select a guy like Pollack, Tuck, or even Cody USC with a lower pick. Then the real fun will begin with extra picks in rounds 2 and 3 which will enable us to either bring in more bodies or move about in order to get the guys in rounds 2 and 3 that we really covet.

All of this is predicated on two ideas: 1. that we sign an OT before the draft and 2. that we don't make the deal for Howard.

If we don't sign Terry or another OT before the draft, then it would not surprise me 1 bit to see us position ourselves for a RT who can possibly start right away. If we feel the deal for Howard is going to go through, then it makes no sense to pay round 1 money to another DE or to a blitzing LB.

I believe we'll make the deal for Howard and get a RT in FA...then the draft is about impact guys and guys who can compete.

Everything that occurs in round 1 will depend on what we get done or don't do at DE and OT before the draft. Along with FS, DE and OT are the two most critical positions right now where a rookie could contribute soon...LB is the next spot, but I have a feeling we'll be looking at a round 2 LB rather than one of the top guys.I agree that there is a strong likelihood that we will trade out fo the #11 spot for more picks. However, I think that that probability increases if we do the Howard deal. If we trade the 2nd rounder for Howard then we have only two 1st day picks, therefore I think it becomes even more likely that we trade down to recoup the 2nd rounder. In fact I think the Howard deal makes it more likely that we will trade both our 1st round picks to try and recoup the 2nd as well as the 3rd we spent on Henson.

I have said repeatedly that this is the year to be trading down not up. So the only problem IMO will be finding a sucker who wants to trade up. But as P.T. Barnum said, "There's a sucker born every minute."

[junk]

The point is that if we sign Howard and have a starting DL of Ellis, Glover, Ferguson, and Howard, the drafted kid will not step in and be a starter at all. #11 is pretty high for a backup who may be a backup for years.

You have a better argument at LB, but you aren't going to play a 4-3 and line up Merriman at 272 or Pollack at OLB and blitz them much...that's the whole point of signing Howard and Ferguson and improving the DL's rush.

If Howard isn't signed, we need a DE.
If Howard is signed, we perhaps need a traditional LB....DJ is most likely gone, and Dallas reportedly isn't very intrigued with him anyway...but we all know not to trust reports....I could see us drafting a satisfactory LB at the end of round 1 on in round 2....there are solid guys after DJ, like the kid from Tenn.

As I've said, right now we need a DE or blitzing LB and an RT, but we may need neither on draft day.

For the most part, I agree with you. My point was that even if the team acquired Howard (or some other DE), it wouldn't surprise me to see them also add a pass rushing LB.

[Chuck 54]

Really, for us, the question becomes a matter of rating. For example, if we like a DJ or a Merriman, do we like them that much more the a Blackstock or a Burnett or a Wallace? I mean, if a team puts together a nice deal, I think it's foolish to pass it up because you might have a certain player rated marginally better then the next guy on your list.
Parcells showed us just that idea last year....He did not like Julius JOnes better than Jackson or Kevin Jones...but he didn't like either of them much more than JJ, so he made the deal.

I think there's a good chance he doesn't see Merriman or DJ as sure thing superstars, so why not save money, pick a solid tough guy player that he likes, and get more picks.

[Chuck 54]

I'm starting to think more and more that Wayne's scenario here is very possible.

It all comes down to what Dallas' specific draft board looks like. Does Parcells view this draft like the "experts?" ie are there several DE's that he see's as relative equals? If so, moving down makes total sense.

No one has a clue what Parcells is thinking about specific players. He may think Merriman is the next Mike Mamula or he may think he's the next LT. And THAT (use your own college prospect) is what will drive this draft for Dallas.

Parcells is not afraid to go against conventional wisdom at all. That is why we have Julius Jones and not Stephen Jackson.
exactly, and if he makes the deal for Howard, we won't be in the market for a DE at all, imo.

[MichaelWinicki]

and let's realize that not all gm's think the way Parcells does...does anyone? I don't think he'll fall in love with a guy like Merriman or DJ or the CB's...someone who wants a LB or DE or CB or OL or even DT will think the highest rated guy is worth moving up for...it always happens. If we sign Howard, there's not a DE in the draft who would get that much playing time. There's not a DT who's going to do anything more than earn some rotation time due to Glover and Ferguson...we're set at CB with guys who have experience....we have our RB and won't want another one in round 1...same with TE. We just drafted a OT and OG on day one last year. Frankly, as bad as our record was, it's going to be difficult for a drafted player to step into a starting spot right away, assuming we take care of the OT and DE spots.

It makes more sense to move down from 11, gather quality picks, get a WR who can make an impact right away as a #3,#4 guy, grab a tough LB like the kid from Tennesee, and then find a FS and some more depth and competition. I'd love to take Matt Jones in round 2...maybe even the top kicker if we have extra picks anyway...that's a position that could make a huge impact immediately.


I agree with that Wayne. I wouldn't be shocked if we traded both picks.

[MichaelWinicki]

Parcells showed us just that idea last year....He did not like Julius JOnes better than Jackson or Kevin Jones...but he didn't like either of them much more than JJ, so he made the deal.

I think there's a good chance he doesn't see Merriman or DJ as sure thing superstars, so why not save money, pick a solid tough guy player that he likes, and get more picks.


And DJ/Merriman are far from sure things...

[jimmy40]

And DJ/Merriman are far from sure things...DJ at weakside linebacker is as sure a thing as there is in this draft.

[BadKarma]

I can see Wayne's scenario happening. We get Howard and a veteran OL and we've basically shored up our needs. With that, I think Parcells is looking for more weapons for Bledsoe - specifically the WR position. After losing Terry Glenn and Julius Jones early in the season, our offense basically took a nose dive. I doubt he's going to let that happen again.

So I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we trade down a few slots then pickup a WR with our first pick - someone who doesn't necessarily have to come in as a starter, but definitely one who can come in and contribute if we lose either KJ or TG.

[MichaelWinicki]

DJ at weakside linebacker is as sure a thing as there is in this draft.


I think Parcells is going to give Brady every shot in the world at being the weakside linebacker. And DJ is not a good blitzing LB... consequently I don't see him in a Cowboy uni.

[HeHateMe]

It's downright frustrating if we have to use another high pick on a RT.

[Chuck 54]

And DJ/Merriman are far from sure things...
on the nose....

[jimmy40]

I think Parcells is going to give Brady every shot in the world at being the weakside linebacker. And DJ is not a good blitzing LB... consequently I don't see him in a Cowboy uni.How does anybody know DJ is not a good blitzing LB? He wasn't asked to do that at Texas. You may be right about Brady and probably are but IMO DJ would be a better blitzing linebacker right now than anybody on Dallas' roster. Why wouldn't he be, our linebackers flat out suck at blitzing the QB, it wouldn't take much to be better. I say IF we stay 4-3 draft DJ, forget about weakside linebacker the next ten years and let Brady battle it out with Dat in the middle.

[Chuck 54]

I don't think there's anyway DJ will still be available at #11, so it's probably a moot point.