dwmyers
02-10-2012, 09:01 AM
My playoff prediction model went 9-2 last year, assuming that the Giants were a playoff team. But was that a reasonable assumption in the first place, in the context of my model?
I did some studies to determine that.
Url here:
http://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2012/02/09/the-cf-nfl-playoff-model-what-it-says-about-previous-playoff-experience/
Excerpt:
Note that the best fits are found when the playoff experience span is the smallest. The confidence limits on the playoff parameter are the smallest, the model deviance is the smallest, the confidence limit of the model deviance is the smallest. The best models result from the narrowest possible definition of “playoff experience”, and this result is consistent across the three yearly spans we tested.
Answer is, you need the model -plus- the additional assumption that the Giants were a playoff team to get to my results this previous season.
D-
I did some studies to determine that.
Url here:
http://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2012/02/09/the-cf-nfl-playoff-model-what-it-says-about-previous-playoff-experience/
Excerpt:
Note that the best fits are found when the playoff experience span is the smallest. The confidence limits on the playoff parameter are the smallest, the model deviance is the smallest, the confidence limit of the model deviance is the smallest. The best models result from the narrowest possible definition of “playoff experience”, and this result is consistent across the three yearly spans we tested.
Answer is, you need the model -plus- the additional assumption that the Giants were a playoff team to get to my results this previous season.
D-