trickblue
04-06-2005, 03:49 PM
Art of the draft deal
By Gil Brandt
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(April 5, 2005) -- What goes around in the NFL does not always come around. That axiom, however, is true in the case of quarterbacks Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson.
In 1987, the Patriots and Raiders made a multi-pick trade on draft day in which New England moved down to get the Raiders' fourth-round pick. The Patriots used that pick to draft Gannon ... who eventually made his way to the Raiders and led them to Super Bowl XXXVII. (The Raiders, by the way, used the third-round pick they got from New England that year to select Penn State running back Steve Smith.)
In 1992, Tampa Bay thought nothing of sending Minnesota its ninth-round draft choice in exchange for veteran linebacker Jimmy Williams. The Vikings used that late-round pick to select Johnson, who would later find his way to Tampa Bay in time to help them win Super Bowl XXXVII. Now Johnson is back in Minnesota.
These quirks of draft history prove one thing: Teams never know exactly what they're getting into when they trade draft picks. Still, that doesn't stop them from trying to make it as exact a science as possible.
The art of draft-day trades has evolved over the years. At the 1961 draft, it was as simple as 49ers coach Red Hickey walking over to the Colts table at the hotel ballroom where the draft was being held. "I'll give you one of our tight ends, Monty Stickles or Dee Mackey, in exchange for your first-round pick," Hickey proposed to Colts head coach Weeb Ewbank. In a matter of 10 minutes, Ewbank decided he'd take Mackey, and the deal was done. Hickey calmly walked back to the 49ers' table and then used the acquired draft pick to select quarterback Billy Kilmer.
That's the way most draft-day deals were done back then. Eventually, teams began to map their strategies well in advance. In 1977, for instance, when I was with the Dallas Cowboys, we and the Seattle Seahawks had worked out a deal for the second overall pick as early as 10 days before the draft. But it was contingent on the player we wanted -- Tony Dorsett -- being available. We were pretty sure the Buccaneers were going to take running back Ricky Bell with the first pick, but the trade was not consummated until Tampa Bay made its pick official.
Most experts predict a lot of trading to take place in the first round, but you can be sure that much of the trade talk has already transpired. And to make things more of a science, teams have their own systems of "ranking" every spot in the draft. That way they can mix and match picks like a puzzle.
For instance, let's examine the trade last year between the Giants and Chargers. The Giants wanted Eli Manning, whom the Chargers took with the No. 1 overall selection. They got him, but they gave up their pick (fourth overall, who was Philip Rivers), a third-round pick in 2004, and first- and fifth-round picks this year.
Was it worth it? For now it's too soon to really tell, but one way we can figure out who got the edge of this trade is to consult the following chart, which is one NFL team's value chart, obtained by NFL.com.
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7
1 3,000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 27 193 14.2
2 2,600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 26.6 194 13.8
3 2,200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 26.2 195 13.4
4 1,800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 25.8 196 13
5 1,700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 25.4 197 12.6
6 1,600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 25 198 12.2
7 1,500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 24.6 199 11.8
8 1,400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 24.2 200 11.4
9 1,350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 23.8 201 11
10 1,300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 23.4 202 10.6
11 1,250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 23 203 10.2
12 1,200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 22.6 204 9.8
13 1,150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 22.2 205 9.4
14 1,100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 21.8 206 9
15 1,050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 21.4 207 8.6
16 1,000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 21 208 8.2
17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 20.6 209 7.8
18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 20.2 210 7.4
19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 19.8 211 7
20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6
21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 19 213 6.2
22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8
23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 18.2 215 5.4
24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5
25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6
26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 29.8 186 17 218 4.2
27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8
28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 29 188 16.2 220 3.4
29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3
30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6
31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 27.8 191 15 223 2.3
32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2
According to this chart, the first overall pick is worth 3,000 points and the fourth overall pick is worth 1,800. The third-round pick the Chargers got, which they used on Nate Kaeding, was the No. 65 pick overall, worth 265 points. The first rounder they got from the Giants this year is No. 12 overall, worth 1,200 points, and the fifth rounder was 144th overall (San Diego traded it to Tampa Bay). That was worth 34 points.
Do the math, and for the 3,000 point pick the Giants got, they gave up picks totaling 3,299 points. That's not bad considering they unloaded two first-round picks plus two more picks for Manning's services.
Here's another example: In 2003, the Bears dealt the No. 4 overall pick to the Jets for their pair of first-round picks, Nos. 14 and 22. According to the chart, the Bears gave up a pick worth 1,800 for picks totaling 1,880. That's about as close to even as can be. The Bears used the picks on DE Michael Haynes and QB Rex Grossman while the Jets took DT Dewayne Robertson.
Of course, how these trades work out is another matter. And it often takes years to evaluate that sort of thing. But it's amazing to see how the process has evolved over the years. And you can be sure that when trades are consummated this weekend, more went into it than the 15 minutes between picks.
By Gil Brandt
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(April 5, 2005) -- What goes around in the NFL does not always come around. That axiom, however, is true in the case of quarterbacks Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson.
In 1987, the Patriots and Raiders made a multi-pick trade on draft day in which New England moved down to get the Raiders' fourth-round pick. The Patriots used that pick to draft Gannon ... who eventually made his way to the Raiders and led them to Super Bowl XXXVII. (The Raiders, by the way, used the third-round pick they got from New England that year to select Penn State running back Steve Smith.)
In 1992, Tampa Bay thought nothing of sending Minnesota its ninth-round draft choice in exchange for veteran linebacker Jimmy Williams. The Vikings used that late-round pick to select Johnson, who would later find his way to Tampa Bay in time to help them win Super Bowl XXXVII. Now Johnson is back in Minnesota.
These quirks of draft history prove one thing: Teams never know exactly what they're getting into when they trade draft picks. Still, that doesn't stop them from trying to make it as exact a science as possible.
The art of draft-day trades has evolved over the years. At the 1961 draft, it was as simple as 49ers coach Red Hickey walking over to the Colts table at the hotel ballroom where the draft was being held. "I'll give you one of our tight ends, Monty Stickles or Dee Mackey, in exchange for your first-round pick," Hickey proposed to Colts head coach Weeb Ewbank. In a matter of 10 minutes, Ewbank decided he'd take Mackey, and the deal was done. Hickey calmly walked back to the 49ers' table and then used the acquired draft pick to select quarterback Billy Kilmer.
That's the way most draft-day deals were done back then. Eventually, teams began to map their strategies well in advance. In 1977, for instance, when I was with the Dallas Cowboys, we and the Seattle Seahawks had worked out a deal for the second overall pick as early as 10 days before the draft. But it was contingent on the player we wanted -- Tony Dorsett -- being available. We were pretty sure the Buccaneers were going to take running back Ricky Bell with the first pick, but the trade was not consummated until Tampa Bay made its pick official.
Most experts predict a lot of trading to take place in the first round, but you can be sure that much of the trade talk has already transpired. And to make things more of a science, teams have their own systems of "ranking" every spot in the draft. That way they can mix and match picks like a puzzle.
For instance, let's examine the trade last year between the Giants and Chargers. The Giants wanted Eli Manning, whom the Chargers took with the No. 1 overall selection. They got him, but they gave up their pick (fourth overall, who was Philip Rivers), a third-round pick in 2004, and first- and fifth-round picks this year.
Was it worth it? For now it's too soon to really tell, but one way we can figure out who got the edge of this trade is to consult the following chart, which is one NFL team's value chart, obtained by NFL.com.
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7
1 3,000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 27 193 14.2
2 2,600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 26.6 194 13.8
3 2,200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 26.2 195 13.4
4 1,800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 25.8 196 13
5 1,700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 25.4 197 12.6
6 1,600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 25 198 12.2
7 1,500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 24.6 199 11.8
8 1,400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 24.2 200 11.4
9 1,350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 23.8 201 11
10 1,300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 23.4 202 10.6
11 1,250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 23 203 10.2
12 1,200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 22.6 204 9.8
13 1,150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 22.2 205 9.4
14 1,100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 21.8 206 9
15 1,050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 21.4 207 8.6
16 1,000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 21 208 8.2
17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 20.6 209 7.8
18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 20.2 210 7.4
19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 19.8 211 7
20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6
21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 19 213 6.2
22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8
23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 18.2 215 5.4
24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5
25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6
26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 29.8 186 17 218 4.2
27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8
28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 29 188 16.2 220 3.4
29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3
30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6
31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 27.8 191 15 223 2.3
32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2
According to this chart, the first overall pick is worth 3,000 points and the fourth overall pick is worth 1,800. The third-round pick the Chargers got, which they used on Nate Kaeding, was the No. 65 pick overall, worth 265 points. The first rounder they got from the Giants this year is No. 12 overall, worth 1,200 points, and the fifth rounder was 144th overall (San Diego traded it to Tampa Bay). That was worth 34 points.
Do the math, and for the 3,000 point pick the Giants got, they gave up picks totaling 3,299 points. That's not bad considering they unloaded two first-round picks plus two more picks for Manning's services.
Here's another example: In 2003, the Bears dealt the No. 4 overall pick to the Jets for their pair of first-round picks, Nos. 14 and 22. According to the chart, the Bears gave up a pick worth 1,800 for picks totaling 1,880. That's about as close to even as can be. The Bears used the picks on DE Michael Haynes and QB Rex Grossman while the Jets took DT Dewayne Robertson.
Of course, how these trades work out is another matter. And it often takes years to evaluate that sort of thing. But it's amazing to see how the process has evolved over the years. And you can be sure that when trades are consummated this weekend, more went into it than the 15 minutes between picks.