Great Article on 1st round success rate (Case for DeCastro)

[Galian Beast]

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-04-22/nfl-draft-2012-first-round-disappointments

In terms of drafting a guard/center there is a 42.8 success rate of centers/guards making the pro bowl at least once if they were drafted in the first round (last 10 years).

The only thing higher is safety and tight end.

When you get into multiple pro bowls:

Guard is 42.8% (Center is 28.5%)

The only thing higher is safety (than center)

Guard/Center seems to be the safest pick in general, and even looking at DeCastro he seems to be the safest pick.

With a team that has missed so many times in the last decade, I'd really appreciate us going for the safest pick/best bet.

[fanfromvirginia]

Good point although that makes Barron pretty safe as well....

[THUMPER]

I think that is mainly because Guard, Center, TE, & Safety are not seen as high priority positions like QB, DE, OT, CB, are. So the only time a team will select one in the first round is when they are truly standouts at their position.

QBs will go in the first even when they are not seen as "can't miss" players because a team NEEDS a QB. Same with some of the others. Look at the mock drafts and you will see a lot of QBs, DEs, CBs, & OTs in the first round but only one or two interior linemen and safeties.

It comes down to a perception of need rather than actual talent/ability. It is a rare draft when 3 interior linemen are selected in the first round but not rare at all to see more than 3 DEs taken early.

RBs, WRs, & LBs vary with each draft so it's harder to make a general statement about those positions. You could have a bunch of them go early in one draft and very few the next.

All that said, I think DeCastro should be our pick as he is a rare talent at OG, rather than Barron (whom many mocks have us taking) who is NOT a complete Safety IMO. We can look for DB help in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

[StanleySpadowski]

Interior linemen make the pro bowl on name recognition moreso than any other position. It's only logical that 1st round picks at those positions make the pro bowl at a higher rate.

Plus interior linemen typically go later in the 1st round, which means more successful teams draft them and more successful teams get more pro bowlers, earned or not.

[The Quest for Six]

Good point although that makes Barron pretty safe as well....


how is Barron a safe pick, he may be the best safety in this draft but what does that say when the safety class in this draft is so weak.....And barron is certainly NO Ed Reed, he's more of a strong safety than a free safety and one could argue that he may be more of a product of playing in a great defense, especially front seven....I wouldn't mind the pick if he's there at 14, but as far as I'm concerned, Decastro is the safe pick in this draft and when jerry is always talking about getting players to help Romo, that's the guy I want, because a great offensive line helps Romo and the offense by running the ball, protecting the quarterback and helps control the clock keeping the defense off the field...First round, Dallas has missed too often by not taking the safe pick, 30 years not taking an offensive line, Smith proved why that idea was flawed, give me more safe picks in the first round, so give me Decastro if he's there...

[SDCowboy85]

Good point although that makes Barron pretty safe as well....
ESPN is reporting that Dallas is going to have to move way up now to get Barron. The Bills and Chiefs are now both planning on drafting him. Yesterday, Jerry kept talking about moving up though so maybe we will.

[The Quest for Six]

Interior linemen make the pro bowl on name recognition moreso than any other position. It's only logical that 1st round picks at those positions make the pro bowl at a higher rate.

Plus interior linemen typically go later in the 1st round, which means more successful teams draft them and more successful teams get more pro bowlers, earned or not.

yeah, Drafting interior linemen after the first round over the last 15 years have worked so well for the cowboys, Decastro is a special player, give me a 12 year probowl type player in the line of a Larry Allen or a Steve Hutchinson, than some project that has failed in the past in later rounds

[THUMPER]

ESPN is reporting that Dallas is going to have to move way up now to get Barron. The Bills and Chiefs are now both planning on drafting him. Yesterday, Jerry kept talking about moving up though so maybe we will.

Moving up for Barron would be a HUGE mistake IMO. :bang2:

[Bull Frog]

Maybe it's just me, but if you are looking for safe picks I think Hightower is the safest pick. He may not be a need, but he's a good football player. I think he will have a better career than Upshaw. If we can trade down 2 or 3 slots he makes even more sense. I'd be perfectly happy with DeCastro or Barron since they are more of a need.

Just Say NO TO POE!

[The Quest for Six]

Moving up for Barron would be a HUGE mistake IMO. :bang2:

I completely agree, especially for a safety......wouldn't mind a trade up for a player if the cowboys were 1 or 2 pieces away, but they aren't and I think Jerry is going to trade down if anything, not up!!

[SDCowboy85]

Moving up for Barron would be a HUGE mistake IMO. :bang2:
Maybe but both players that could help us the most right out of the gate, Barron and DeCastro, we will likely have to move up for now.

[Kangaroo]

yeah, Drafting interior linemen after the first round over the last 15 years have worked so well for the cowboys, Decastro is a special player, give me a 12 year probowl type player in the line of a Larry Allen or a Steve Hutchinson, than some project that has failed in the past in later rounds

Castro is not larry Allen or even in the same skill level remember Allen played LT, RT and then guard when he got older

[ufcrules1]

Only player we should trade up for is Claiborne. I'm against trading up for any other player on the board. I'm big time against trading up for Barron. If he is there at 14 and we are set on picking defense, then I'm ok with picking him. If we are going best player available and Barron and Decastro are there.. we should take Decastro but he is a sure thing..just like Tyron Smith was.

[Tricericon]

I think that is mainly because Guard, Center, TE, & Safety are not seen as high priority positions like QB, DE, OT, CB, are. So the only time a team will select one in the first round is when they are truly standouts at their position.

Interior linemen make the pro bowl on name recognition moreso than any other position. It's only logical that 1st round picks at those positions make the pro bowl at a higher rate.

:clap2:

[Idgit]

Cause, meet effect.

[burmafrd]

Interior linemen make the pro bowl on name recognition moreso than any other position. It's only logical that 1st round picks at those positions make the pro bowl at a higher rate.

Plus interior linemen typically go later in the 1st round, which means more successful teams draft them and more successful teams get more pro bowlers, earned or not.


Does not make a difference. Bottom line is that DeCastro is probably the safest pick in the draft.

And frankly this name recognition is over blown; yes for older players but how do they get there in the first place?

[BehindEnemyLinez]

<<<<<hoping DeCastro is chosen @ 14...

[SDCowboy85]

<<<<<hoping DeCastro is chosen @ 14...
Highly doubt he's still there at 14.

[Galian Beast]

Moving up for Barron would be a HUGE mistake IMO. :bang2:

I'd be furious...

[Nation]

The "safe" percentage logic is inherently flawed by the fact that 40 percent of our first round picks in the last decade have made the Pro Bowl. Roy, Newman, Ware and Jenkins have all made it and I think it's a safe bet that Dez and Ty will be there some day as well. If that is your barometer you can't really say Dallas has "missed so many times" when they're hitting at the same rate of the safest position.

Trust the board and take the best player available regardless of position.

[Idgit]

Highly doubt he's still there at 14.

Decastro? Most would be surprised if he weren't.

[Hagman]

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-04-22/nfl-draft-2012-first-round-disappointments

In terms of drafting a guard/center there is a 42.8 success rate of centers/guards making the pro bowl at least once if they were drafted in the first round (last 10 years).

The only thing higher is safety and tight end.

When you get into multiple pro bowls:

Guard is 42.8% (Center is 28.5%)

The only thing higher is safety (than center)

Guard/Center seems to be the safest pick in general, and even looking at DeCastro he seems to be the safest pick.

With a team that has missed so many times in the last decade, I'd really appreciate us going for the safest pick/best bet.

John Niland, our first round pick in 1966 (5th overall) made 6 Pro Bowls.

[SDCowboy85]

Decastro? Most would be surprised if he weren't.
He seems to be rapidly gaining popularity.

[cowboysooner]

You can also add there are 3 spots for interior linemen and a very small pool of 1st round picks (like a 1 per year average). Compare that to pass rusher where there are 6-10 picked in the 1st many years and only 2 spots in the pro bowl. Those odds will never balance.

A far better measure would be expected second contract dollars since this is a salary cap world with a supposed efficient market.

[InmanRoshi]

Larry Allen got nominated for a Pro Bowl in 2003 when he was continually benched for bad play. Nate Newton made the Pro Bowl in 1999 as journeyman for the Carolina Panthers and was out of the league a year later. Gurode made the Pro Bowl in 2010, was released and couldn't find a team to offer him a starting position.

I'll echo what's already been said, Pro Bowls is a pretty poor measuring stick for interior OL and almost entirely based on name recognition.

[jterrell]

Case against DeCastro instead of for him.

You can select a Pro bowl Guard no matter where you draft in r1.
You don't need a pro bowl guard at pick 14.

If Dallas takes Fletcher, Barron, Brockers, Ingram, Upshaw this year int he top 22; they can come back next year and draft an OG at say 25 with Pro Bowl ability.

BUT, if they select DeCastro at 14 good friggin luck at 25 trying to find a solid front 7 guy.

[StanleySpadowski]

Larry Allen got nominated for a Pro Bowl in 2003 when he was continually benched for bad play. Nate Newton made the Pro Bowl in 1999 as journeyman for the Carolina Panthers and was out of the league a year later. Gurode made the Pro Bowl in 2010, was released and couldn't find a team to offer him a starting position.

I'll echo what's already been said, Pro Bowls is a pretty poor measuring stick for interior OL and almost entirely based on name recognition.


We're agreeing too much lately. It's starting to scare me a little.

[38 Special]

Larry Allen got nominated for a Pro Bowl in 2003 when he was continually benched for bad play. Nate Newton made the Pro Bowl in 1999 as journeyman for the Carolina Panthers and was out of the league a year later. Gurode made the Pro Bowl in 2010, was released and couldn't find a team to offer him a starting position.

I'll echo what's already been said, Pro Bowls is a pretty poor measuring stick for interior OL and almost entirely based on name recognition.

So Nate Newton went to the pro bowl in 99 because he was a first round interior OL selection?

There's a pretty big disconnect in your logic. Those players earned their name recognition on the field and went to pro bowls late in their careers that weren't justified. They did not go because they were 1st round picks (the current topic of conversation here).

[cowboys2233]

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-04-22/nfl-draft-2012-first-round-disappointments

In terms of drafting a guard/center there is a 42.8 success rate of centers/guards making the pro bowl at least once if they were drafted in the first round (last 10 years).

The only thing higher is safety and tight end.

When you get into multiple pro bowls:

Guard is 42.8% (Center is 28.5%)

The only thing higher is safety (than center)

Guard/Center seems to be the safest pick in general, and even looking at DeCastro he seems to be the safest pick.

With a team that has missed so many times in the last decade, I'd really appreciate us going for the safest pick/best bet.

Not sure if this is the best way to define success. Roy Williams fit that mold, we picked him, he made the Pro Bowl. But did he really change the fortunes of our team...at all? Of course, our team sucked for most of his career, but still. A guy like Ed Reed, like Polamalu, those are guys who truly had an impact from the safety position.

With all that said, I'm a BIG fan of drafting offensive and defensive linemen, that's how you truly build a team, from the inside out.

[jterrell]

So Nate Newton went to the pro bowl in 99 because he was a first round interior OL selection?

There's a pretty big disconnect in your logic. Those players earned their name recognition on the field and went to pro bowls late in their careers that weren't justified. They did not go because they were 1st round picks (the current topic of conversation here).

His point is the pro bowl means next to nothing so isn't a good criterion.

Not hard to follow the logic there.

My logic is even easier to follow. Not a single guard in the playoffs, on the all-pro or pro bowl rosters was selected as high at 14. NONE.

It's like a guy signing a 100 million dollar guaranteed contract then marrying a model without signing a pre-nup and feeling like he made a great deal.... #wasteofresources

[InmanRoshi]

So Nate Newton went to the pro bowl in 99 because he was a first round interior OL selection?

There's a pretty big disconnect in your logic.

No, the logic is that interior linemen get to Pro Bowls based almost entirely on name recognition. Any player selected with a first round draft pick has a huge leg up in name recognition because he had Kiper and Mayock going on and on about what a great player he is for four months in front of national audiences. A guard or center selected in the first round almost has to completely flame out as a complete bust to not make the Pro Bowl.

[Galian Beast]

The "safe" percentage logic is inherently flawed by the fact that 40 percent of our first round picks in the last decade have made the Pro Bowl. Roy, Newman, Ware and Jenkins have all made it and I think it's a safe bet that Dez and Ty will be there some day as well. If that is your barometer you can't really say Dallas has "missed so many times" when they're hitting at the same rate of the safest position.

Trust the board and take the best player available regardless of position.

Missed on Felix Jones, Anthony Spencer, Bobby Carpenter, Marcus Spears, and technically Bryant and Smith.

That is 6 misses and 4 hits. For one pro bowl appearance, that is about where it should be. However the rate for multiples still goes pretty low, given that only DeMarcus Ware and Roy Williams went to multiple. And going for Williams is a bit of a stretch...

I would certainly consider hitting the league average (if we even met that), to be missing a lot. We've been an average team, and we've won one playoff game.

[JBond]

ESPN is reporting that Dallas is going to have to move way up now to get Barron. The Bills and Chiefs are now both planning on drafting him. Yesterday, Jerry kept talking about moving up though so maybe we will.

Chiefs are out. Going LB or d-line. They spent a first on a safety two years ago.

[burmafrd]

No, the logic is that interior linemen get to Pro Bowls based almost entirely on name recognition. Any player selected with a first round draft pick has a huge leg up in name recognition because he had Kiper and Mayock going on and on about what a great player he is for four months in front of national audiences. A guard or center selected in the first round almost has to completely flame out as a complete bust to not make the Pro Bowl.


so how do they make the pro bowl in the first place if they have no name recognition?

WRONG.

By the way prior to the fans voting the Pro Bowl was legitimate.

But facts just do not impress you so why bother?

[fanfromvirginia]

how is Barron a safe pick, he may be the best safety in this draft but what does that say when the safety class in this draft is so weak.....And barron is certainly NO Ed Reed, he's more of a strong safety than a free safety and one could argue that he may be more of a product of playing in a great defense, especially front seven....I wouldn't mind the pick if he's there at 14, but as far as I'm concerned, Decastro is the safe pick in this draft and when jerry is always talking about getting players to help Romo, that's the guy I want, because a great offensive line helps Romo and the offense by running the ball, protecting the quarterback and helps control the clock keeping the defense off the field...First round, Dallas has missed too often by not taking the safe pick, 30 years not taking an offensive line, Smith proved why that idea was flawed, give me more safe picks in the first round, so give me Decastro if he's there...


DeCastro is much safer. I prefer DeCastro. But this info, everything else equal, makes Barron safe compared to most everybody else in the conversation. I only mean relative to most others, which may not be saying that much given how many question marks there are on pretty much everybody in the conversation at this stage (again, minus DeCastro.)

[HoustonFrog]

I put this in an earlier thread...this is for a move up

Food for thought...and I love Barron..at 14

Recent safeties drafted in top 10: Eric Berry (5), LaRon Landry (6), Michael Huff (7), Donte Whitner (8), Sean Taylor (5)...2 are on other teams now. No real busts but take of it what you will. Nothing that reads "game changer."

[Kangaroo]

Missed on Felix Jones, Anthony Spencer, Bobby Carpenter, Marcus Spears, and technically Bryant and Smith.

That is 6 misses and 4 hits. For one pro bowl appearance, that is about where it should be. However the rate for multiples still goes pretty low, given that only DeMarcus Ware and Roy Williams went to multiple. And going for Williams is a bit of a stretch...

I would certainly consider hitting the league average (if we even met that), to be missing a lot. We've been an average team, and we've won one playoff game.

The only miss was Bobby the rest have been at least productive picks on the team and Bryant has two years in and has put up productive numbers for a young wr yet he is a miss and has not even finished his 3rd year :lmao2:.

[38 Special]

His point is the pro bowl means next to nothing so isn't a good criterion.

Not hard to follow the logic there.

My logic is even easier to follow. Not a single guard in the playoffs, on the all-pro or pro bowl rosters was selected as high at 14. NONE.

It's like a guy signing a 100 million dollar guaranteed contract then marrying a model without signing a pre-nup and feeling like he made a great deal.... #wasteofresources

I like the logic behind this argument much more, even if I disagree.

We don't know exactly who will be there, but there's a good chance that the best talent will be a Guard. I never have understood why interior DL are valued higher than interior OL, but I am ok with Brockers or Barron if JJ goes that way. Should be fun to find out.

[InmanRoshi]

so how do they make the pro bowl in the first place if they have no name recognition?


Ugh, did you read my post. Any player drafted in the first round already has a ton of name recognition because he's been relentlessly hyped for four months leading up to the draft. Particularly an interior OL, because he's probably been described as "a special player worthy of a first round pick despite being a guard" an umpteen bajillion times before he's even played a snap in the NFL.

I know you put a huge amount of weight in Pro Bowls for offensive guards, given that you ride Andre Gurode's jock and call him a Pro Bowl player despite the fact that no one would give him a starting job after he hit the open market and no one is even offering him a job at all at the moment, but it's a joke.

[jterrell]

Missed on Felix Jones, Anthony Spencer, Bobby Carpenter, Marcus Spears, and technically Bryant and Smith.

That is 6 misses and 4 hits. For one pro bowl appearance, that is about where it should be. However the rate for multiples still goes pretty low, given that only DeMarcus Ware and Roy Williams went to multiple. And going for Williams is a bit of a stretch...

I would certainly consider hitting the league average (if we even met that), to be missing a lot. We've been an average team, and we've won one playoff game.

of the guys you listed everyone drafted top 14 went to multiple pro bowls(except tyron who hasn't had a chance yet but sure looks on the way), all the ones who were selected after 14 did not.

[Galian Beast]

The only miss was Bobby the rest have been at least productive picks on the team and Bryant has two years in and has put up productive numbers for a young wr yet he is a miss and has not even finished his 3rd year :lmao2:.

Comprehension isn't your strong suit... A miss as defined by not having gone to a pro bowl.