Natedawg44
04-12-2005, 02:16 PM
Pete Fiutak
Q: Based on what you saw from them as college players, 1) who should be the number one pick in the draft, 2) who’s your biggest sleeper?
A: I wish I could shake some sense into teams with their first round draft picks. In today's day and age of free agency, salary caps and easier player movement, there's no reason whatsoever to draft for need in the first round. If you need a linebacker, take a few later on and hope one pans out, but don't take one in the first round if there are better players at other positions.
There are three fail-safe rules for drafting in the first round. 1) Draft the best player available. 2) Don't get cute and don't take risks. If you like a guy, take him. 3) DRAFT THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE. Always ask yourself if the player you're drafting is a piece of a Super Bowl puzzle.
That's why I'm continually stunned that San Francisco is so set on Aaron Rodgers or Alex Smith. They're good prospects to be sure, but do you want to really marry your franchise to a marginal quarterback prospect? Braylon Edwards, Derrick Johnson and Alex Barron appear to be the surest things out there. Of course, there are occasional problems with my theory (like the bad luck injury problems can't-miss-prospect Charles Rogers has had), but you have to play the percentages. To me, the combination of speed, size and game-changing ability makes Edwards the safest pick on the board. Yes, he had lapses in concentration and I'm scared to death of David Terrell II syndrome, but I still like the Wolverine star.
As far as sleepers, I think Troy's hybrid DE/LB Dermarcus Ware will slide too far in the first round. He's either Terrell Suggs or Dwight Freeney, but he's going to be a star no matter where he plays. I love Oregon State QB Derek Anderson and Arizona State QB Andrew Walter in the mid-rounds. With a little bit of work, they're every bit the talents that Smith and Rodgers are. I'm still not convinced that, despite his slow 40, Oregon State DE Bill Swancutt, my top sleeper, isn't going to turn out to be one of the best ends in an end rich draft.
Richard Cirminiello
Q: Based on what you saw from them as college players, 1) who should be the number one pick in the draft, 2) who’s your biggest sleeper?
A: Even though linebackers go this high once every generation, based on where he’ll be five years from now, Texas linebacker Derrick Johnson gets a slight nod over Michigan wide receiver Braylon Edwards as the best No. 1 pick in this month’s NFL draft. Both are big, mature and athletic players, who’ll dominate within two seasons at the next level. Often times, there’s a weak correlation between a player’s college resume and his draft grade. So many other factors, such as size, speed and leaping ability become the measuring sticks from January to April, which explains how an Adrian McPherson will get drafted and a Jason White may not. Johnson, however, has it all—the measurables and the years of big-game production against top competition. He’s the best linebacker to enter the pros since LaVar Arrington in 2000, and in a draft that’s a little light up top, he may be the closest thing to a sure thing. What really makes Johnson so appealing is his ability to create turnovers and change the momentum of a game with his athleticism, much the way Deion, LT and Reggie White did for so many years. Defensive players like Derrick Johnson are rare gems, and should be horded even if the pundits label it a reach. Forget what people say today. If the Pro Bowl is a barometer of NFL success, both he and Edwards will look like shrewd front office moves a decade from now.
Without any hesitation, the biggest first day sleeper is Arkansas’ Matt Jones. Right now, the former Hog quarterback is a man without a position. However, at 6-6, he was clocked at 4.37 in the 40 in Indianapolis. That’s mercurial for a 5-9 receiver. For a dude that can go eye-to-eye with half the hoops team, that’s unprecedented. Factor in the perspective and leadership skills he acquired as a three-year starter under center, and he might revolutionize the tight end (or wide receiver or defensive end) position. With the total physical package he possesses, some inventive coaching staff is going to turn him into a star. You can also pencil him in for at least a couple touchdown passes each year coming out of some hard-to-defense option-pass formation.
On Day Two, look out for Virginia back Alvin Pearman. Even though they may not be the most athletically gifted player on the field, certain kids just find a way to produce when given a chance. Pearman is one of them. Witness last season in Charlottesville. On paper, junior Wali Lundy was the much better NFL prospect. He’s bigger, he’s faster and he comes with more advanced billing. Yet, there was Pearman, pilfering his starting job midway through the year, and doing everything for Al Groh, but hitting the recruiting trail. In the right system, he’ll be a Sunday afternoon steal, who’ll eventually make plays as a third down receiver out of the backfield and a dangerous return man on special teams.
Matthew Zemek
Q: Based on what you saw from them as college players, 1) who should be the number one pick in the draft, 2) who’s your biggest sleeper?
A: It would be hard not to go with Mike Williams, based on the fact that he's physically and mentally fresh. Yes, one could throw out the rust argument, and also say that a lack of reps might hurt rather than help--such an line of reasoning would inevitably exist, and it could perhaps prove true. But the hunch here is that Williams, a truly dominant receiver who, it should be noted, would perfectly fit a short-pass, West Coast-style NFL offense, is a legit number one.
One sleeper candidate among many would be Heath Miller of Virginia. This guy has Mark Bavaro potential, but based on how he was underutilized against Virginia Tech and in other big games by Al Groh, the nation might not think he has that kind of upside.
John Harris
Q: Based on what you saw from them as college players, 1) who should be the number one pick in the draft, 2) who’s your biggest sleeper?
A: With no Michael Vick or Eli Manning sitting at the top of the draft prospect list, the number one selection is a total crapshoot. However, if the crapshoot leads to me drafting Braylon Edwards of Michigan, I’m a happy camper. In my estimation, Edwards has a higher value in the number one pick than any other player in the draft. He showed throughout this season that he could finally make plays, in accordance with the wonderful talent he possesses. No more dropped passes. No more lackadaisical attitude. He single handedly saved the Michigan State game, all the while fighting off double teams for the majority of the game. As a college WR, he was great, but in the NFL, with corners having to keep their hands off, so to speak, Edwards is going to be able to get open downfield and work every area of the field. He’s not just a burner, although he’s got speed to burn and is a tremendous ball hawk down field. He’s not a ‘slow’ possession type receiver, but he can dominate the curl/dig/deep slant areas of the field, if needed. He’s not Orlando Pace blocking on the perimeter, but he’ll get physical with any DB in the League. Edwards is the most complete package of anyone waiting to hear his name called on April 23rd.
The biggest sleeper of the draft is Thomas Davis of Georgia. Yes, he’ll go in the first round and he’ll be one of the first OLBs taken in this draft, but I don’t think people understand how physical this former Bulldog is. Tackling has seemingly become a lost art in the League, and for being a destroying type hitter, Davis is also a solid tackler. Most people don’t know what position he plays, but I’ve got one for you – football player. Try him there, see what he does. By the way, you want to keep the middle of the field free of opposing receivers, send Davis on a seek-and-destroy mission. Texas OLB Derrick Johnson may go ahead of Davis, but Davis is ten times more physical than DJ and that should get scouts’ attention. Whoever drafts Davis will have the biggest sleeper in the first round.
Q: Based on what you saw from them as college players, 1) who should be the number one pick in the draft, 2) who’s your biggest sleeper?
A: I wish I could shake some sense into teams with their first round draft picks. In today's day and age of free agency, salary caps and easier player movement, there's no reason whatsoever to draft for need in the first round. If you need a linebacker, take a few later on and hope one pans out, but don't take one in the first round if there are better players at other positions.
There are three fail-safe rules for drafting in the first round. 1) Draft the best player available. 2) Don't get cute and don't take risks. If you like a guy, take him. 3) DRAFT THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE. Always ask yourself if the player you're drafting is a piece of a Super Bowl puzzle.
That's why I'm continually stunned that San Francisco is so set on Aaron Rodgers or Alex Smith. They're good prospects to be sure, but do you want to really marry your franchise to a marginal quarterback prospect? Braylon Edwards, Derrick Johnson and Alex Barron appear to be the surest things out there. Of course, there are occasional problems with my theory (like the bad luck injury problems can't-miss-prospect Charles Rogers has had), but you have to play the percentages. To me, the combination of speed, size and game-changing ability makes Edwards the safest pick on the board. Yes, he had lapses in concentration and I'm scared to death of David Terrell II syndrome, but I still like the Wolverine star.
As far as sleepers, I think Troy's hybrid DE/LB Dermarcus Ware will slide too far in the first round. He's either Terrell Suggs or Dwight Freeney, but he's going to be a star no matter where he plays. I love Oregon State QB Derek Anderson and Arizona State QB Andrew Walter in the mid-rounds. With a little bit of work, they're every bit the talents that Smith and Rodgers are. I'm still not convinced that, despite his slow 40, Oregon State DE Bill Swancutt, my top sleeper, isn't going to turn out to be one of the best ends in an end rich draft.
Richard Cirminiello
Q: Based on what you saw from them as college players, 1) who should be the number one pick in the draft, 2) who’s your biggest sleeper?
A: Even though linebackers go this high once every generation, based on where he’ll be five years from now, Texas linebacker Derrick Johnson gets a slight nod over Michigan wide receiver Braylon Edwards as the best No. 1 pick in this month’s NFL draft. Both are big, mature and athletic players, who’ll dominate within two seasons at the next level. Often times, there’s a weak correlation between a player’s college resume and his draft grade. So many other factors, such as size, speed and leaping ability become the measuring sticks from January to April, which explains how an Adrian McPherson will get drafted and a Jason White may not. Johnson, however, has it all—the measurables and the years of big-game production against top competition. He’s the best linebacker to enter the pros since LaVar Arrington in 2000, and in a draft that’s a little light up top, he may be the closest thing to a sure thing. What really makes Johnson so appealing is his ability to create turnovers and change the momentum of a game with his athleticism, much the way Deion, LT and Reggie White did for so many years. Defensive players like Derrick Johnson are rare gems, and should be horded even if the pundits label it a reach. Forget what people say today. If the Pro Bowl is a barometer of NFL success, both he and Edwards will look like shrewd front office moves a decade from now.
Without any hesitation, the biggest first day sleeper is Arkansas’ Matt Jones. Right now, the former Hog quarterback is a man without a position. However, at 6-6, he was clocked at 4.37 in the 40 in Indianapolis. That’s mercurial for a 5-9 receiver. For a dude that can go eye-to-eye with half the hoops team, that’s unprecedented. Factor in the perspective and leadership skills he acquired as a three-year starter under center, and he might revolutionize the tight end (or wide receiver or defensive end) position. With the total physical package he possesses, some inventive coaching staff is going to turn him into a star. You can also pencil him in for at least a couple touchdown passes each year coming out of some hard-to-defense option-pass formation.
On Day Two, look out for Virginia back Alvin Pearman. Even though they may not be the most athletically gifted player on the field, certain kids just find a way to produce when given a chance. Pearman is one of them. Witness last season in Charlottesville. On paper, junior Wali Lundy was the much better NFL prospect. He’s bigger, he’s faster and he comes with more advanced billing. Yet, there was Pearman, pilfering his starting job midway through the year, and doing everything for Al Groh, but hitting the recruiting trail. In the right system, he’ll be a Sunday afternoon steal, who’ll eventually make plays as a third down receiver out of the backfield and a dangerous return man on special teams.
Matthew Zemek
Q: Based on what you saw from them as college players, 1) who should be the number one pick in the draft, 2) who’s your biggest sleeper?
A: It would be hard not to go with Mike Williams, based on the fact that he's physically and mentally fresh. Yes, one could throw out the rust argument, and also say that a lack of reps might hurt rather than help--such an line of reasoning would inevitably exist, and it could perhaps prove true. But the hunch here is that Williams, a truly dominant receiver who, it should be noted, would perfectly fit a short-pass, West Coast-style NFL offense, is a legit number one.
One sleeper candidate among many would be Heath Miller of Virginia. This guy has Mark Bavaro potential, but based on how he was underutilized against Virginia Tech and in other big games by Al Groh, the nation might not think he has that kind of upside.
John Harris
Q: Based on what you saw from them as college players, 1) who should be the number one pick in the draft, 2) who’s your biggest sleeper?
A: With no Michael Vick or Eli Manning sitting at the top of the draft prospect list, the number one selection is a total crapshoot. However, if the crapshoot leads to me drafting Braylon Edwards of Michigan, I’m a happy camper. In my estimation, Edwards has a higher value in the number one pick than any other player in the draft. He showed throughout this season that he could finally make plays, in accordance with the wonderful talent he possesses. No more dropped passes. No more lackadaisical attitude. He single handedly saved the Michigan State game, all the while fighting off double teams for the majority of the game. As a college WR, he was great, but in the NFL, with corners having to keep their hands off, so to speak, Edwards is going to be able to get open downfield and work every area of the field. He’s not just a burner, although he’s got speed to burn and is a tremendous ball hawk down field. He’s not a ‘slow’ possession type receiver, but he can dominate the curl/dig/deep slant areas of the field, if needed. He’s not Orlando Pace blocking on the perimeter, but he’ll get physical with any DB in the League. Edwards is the most complete package of anyone waiting to hear his name called on April 23rd.
The biggest sleeper of the draft is Thomas Davis of Georgia. Yes, he’ll go in the first round and he’ll be one of the first OLBs taken in this draft, but I don’t think people understand how physical this former Bulldog is. Tackling has seemingly become a lost art in the League, and for being a destroying type hitter, Davis is also a solid tackler. Most people don’t know what position he plays, but I’ve got one for you – football player. Try him there, see what he does. By the way, you want to keep the middle of the field free of opposing receivers, send Davis on a seek-and-destroy mission. Texas OLB Derrick Johnson may go ahead of Davis, but Davis is ten times more physical than DJ and that should get scouts’ attention. Whoever drafts Davis will have the biggest sleeper in the first round.