Sportdfw: Is Jason Garrett Too Predictable? An Analysis Of His Play Calling

[vlad]

Sep 13th, 2012 at 11:30 am

Is Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Jason Garrett too predictable in his play calling? This is one of the most controversial subjects among Dallas Cowboys fans. Some say yes, some say no. This article will do a complete break down of Jason Garrett’s play calling by individual down and distance situations. You will be shocked by the results.

The tables below are based on every single snap during the 2011 season. Being that I grew up with a coach for a father, I not only spent a lot of time watching film with him, but I also watched him game plan. As a result, I learned how to see patterns and tendencies. This is the 1st thing good coaches look for.

Read the rest: http://sportdfw.com/2012/09/13/is-jason-garrett-too-predictable-an-analysis-of-his-play-calling/


**Thought it was interesting analysis you all would find interesting as well. Apologies if already posted, I searched and didn't see it in the NewsZone.

[Flinger]

That is an Excellent article....

Wow - I'm a Garrett fan, but boy does he have a lot to learn.... I wonder if he will....

[jblaze2004]

That is an Excellent article....

Wow - I'm a Garrett fan, but boy does he have a lot to learn.... I wonder if he will....

doubt it. Garrett seems stubborn...lol...we never seem to make adjustments in game or at halftime when our current gameplan didn't work. We seem to do the opposite of what worked for other teams vs the opponent. Its like garrett just love to out smart himself.

[blackbull]

Staff has to know this stuff.

[rojan]

This doesn't add up to much considering all the pre-snap adjustments and audibles that Romo does.

[ConstantReboot]

Sep 13th, 2012 at 11:30 am

Is Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Jason Garrett too predictable in his play calling? This is one of the most controversial subjects among Dallas Cowboys fans. Some say yes, some say no. This article will do a complete break down of Jason Garrett’s play calling by individual down and distance situations. You will be shocked by the results.

The tables below are based on every single snap during the 2011 season. Being that I grew up with a coach for a father, I not only spent a lot of time watching film with him, but I also watched him game plan. As a result, I learned how to see patterns and tendencies. This is the 1st thing good coaches look for.

Read the rest: http://sportdfw.com/2012/09/13/is-jason-garrett-too-predictable-an-analysis-of-his-play-calling/


**Thought it was interesting analysis you all would find interesting as well. Apologies if already posted, I searched and didn't see it in the NewsZone.


I've been saying this all along, as others here as well - Garrett's play calling is way too predictable. He needs to give the playcalling to Callahan so that our offense can reach its true potential.

You all notice that when our offense becomes lethal is when Romo scrambles, improvises and audibles at the line of scrimmage - changing the play.

I also remember that when Sean Payton was giving out the calls, he used alot of rollouts and play action to freeze the linebackers and we would do it on first down. Garrett hardly goes play action or does anything new on 1st down. All he does is run it up the middle for a few yards.

[Aven8]

Still not sold on Garrett the HC, wait and see approach, but as a play caller he's always been lousy.

6yrs and yes we have good numbers, blah blah, but the tendencies I've never understood with the flow of the game. 26 passes at halftime? Really? We were only down by nothing.

[TheCount]

This doesn't add up to much considering all the pre-snap adjustments and audibles that Romo does.

So you're saying Romo is too predictable! :laugh2:

[proline]

So you're saying Romo is too predictable! :laugh2:

Yes, that's part of it. If Romo has the ability to audible (which ofc he does) then he is part of the equation.

The other factor that I don't recall seeing is what is the sample size for each of those 100% stats? 100% of 1 data point is really not a pattern.

[Wolfpack]

Red is very predictable AND stubborn. He is easy to see what is coming...you have several years of defensive players saying that.

Romo covers up so many worts on this team it isnt even funny.

[rojan]

So you're saying Romo is too predictable! :laugh2:

No, I love the things that Romo does at the LOS.

I think this article is pointless and people are just looking for something to complain about after what happened on Sunday.

No body was talking about this after the Giants game and they wouldn't be talking about it after we beat the Bucs

[Hoofbite]

No, I love the things that Romo does at the LOS.

I think this article is pointless and people are just looking for something to complain about after what happened on Sunday.

No body was talking about this after the Giants game and they wouldn't be talking about it after we beat the Bucs

People have been saying Garrett is predictable for a while.

[Idgit]

People have been saying Garrett is predictable for a while.

People have been complaining about everything relating to the Cowboys for a long while. It's a side effect of the team not winning, not any relation to the OC/HC being predictable or not.

[Hoofbite]

People have been complaining about everything relating to the Cowboys for a long while. It's a side effect of the team not winning, not any relation to the OC/HC being predictable or not.

Ok, so people complain.

It's not like there isn't some substance behind it.

How else would you explain average results with top talent at all the skill positions?

I guess there's always the alternative of incompetent but predictable sure beats the hell out of that.

[Idgit]

Ok, so people complain.

It's not like there isn't some substance behind it.

How else would you explain average results with top talent at all the skill positions?

I guess there's always the alternative of incompetent but predictable sure beats the hell out of that.

We're pass-heavy, especially in red zones. That much is predictable, but it's predictable because it's obvious we can't run when we need to. Hard to fairly fault the play calling for that.

Re: average results, I explain them two ways: one, we've had obvious limitations at OL during the entire time we've had the 'top' skill position talent. And I'm not taking about the childish whining from this offseason because people didn't like the FA OGs. I'm talking about our OTs getting crushed in 2009, and our interior line being unable to pass protect simple twists and stunts for years at a time.

We've also had defensive limitations that have kept us from being able to switch the field and put the offense in position to score sufficient points. Given the pressure we get, we don't get enough turnovers, and given the yards we put up, we don't score enough points on offense. This isn't play calling. We don't put ourselves in positions to win enough games.

Between these limitations and the penalty problems we've had, it's not a wonder that we haven't been successful. These are real problems that are sufficient to explain why we lose. There really isn't a need to go looking for problems with the play calling. If Witten catches the balls that hit him in the hands, or Dez doesn't bounce it off his facemask, or if Austin runs under the ball where Tony was expecting him (not blaming Austin for that necessarily, but it's a communication breakdown however you look at it), if Connor doesn't botch his run-fits or Spender picks up his proper man in coverage, the play calling looks a lot better.

[visionary]

quote from Ed Reed from 3 years back:

ESPN - Ed Reed appeared on "The Michael Irvin Show" on 103.3 ESPN on Wednesday and revisited the Ravens' game in Dallas in which their defense exploited Jason Garrett's predictable Cowboys' offense.

"That was a real simple game plan that they attacked us with," said Reed of the Cowboys' offense. "I thought it would be more complicated, but it was a real simple game plan that they attacked us with. I mean we knew it. Looking at these coaches' openings and talking about a certain someone from Dallas, I'm like, 'Hold on now.'

"It's just Garrett, Garrett, Garrett. I knew the plays we were going against. Maybe that was the game plan for us. But when you watch it on tape, it's not as complicated as I thought it would be. I'm surprised people want to fire Wade Phillips down there and he's the one calling the defense -- and the defense is successful. The guy who's calling the offensive plays isn't getting the same turnaround. Maybe it's the players."

[Gaede]

You know you're predictable when fans can see your patterns and tendencies with the naked eye. Most of us don't know crap about statistics but are able to identify what to expect in a given down/situation from Garrett. I can only imagine how easy it is for defensive coordinators.

[proline]

I'd like to see some of these people claiming how predictable it is actually prove it. On one of the upcoming games, log your guess for each offensive play along with what actually happened. You might also log whether Romo audibles or not. Then post your results here. Let's see the results are really as predictable as you all claim.

[visionary]

I'd like to see some of these people claiming how predictable it is actually prove it. On one of the upcoming games, log your guess for each offensive play along with what actually happened. You might also log whether Romo audibles or not. Then post your results here. Let's see the results are really as predictable as you all claim.

how many games has ed red played? how many teams? how many OCs?

when is the last time he said what he said after we played them?

if i recall, before that ravens game or right after, ray lewis said something very similar

look at the statistical breakdown by the OP

what does that tell you

are all these things wrong?

[TheCount]

People have been saying Garrett is predictable for a while.

Predictability is just a symptom. The underlying root of the problem is simply inexperience. There's only one cure for that disease, time.

[visionary]

Predictability is just a symptom. The underlying root of the problem is simply inexperience. There's only one cure for that disease, time.

the cure doesnt always work
sometimes patients have bad outcomes

[Doomsday101]

I guess it would help if guys caught the wide open passes instead of dropping them, maybe the play calling would not be so predictable. I guess Coughlin must be a moron, since Garrett is so predictable yet could not stop Dallas. :lmao:

[Mr Cowboy]

Predicatble or not, one problem Garrett has is that he goes in with a game plan and no matter what he sticks to it and makes few adjustments until its too late. He may aboandone the run, but he will continually stick with the rest of the game plan even it its not working.

[RXP]

That first table seems funny to me. You have a first down tables with yards to go at 1,2,3, and 8. How often do you get first and 1, first and 2 and first and 3 in a game? It happens only at the goal line. Once or twice a game.

What about first and 10, which you get about 95% of the time? What are the stats there? That would be pretty important don't you think? How often do you get first and 8? Not often. The first table does show he may be predictable inside the 3 yards line, but that is a tiny minority of all first downs in a game. It looks to me as though the writer left out distances that didn't support his/her theory.

The writer may have a point about predictablilty atinside the red zone. But what about the other 80 yards? That metters too. It looks to me as though the writer chooses numbers that match his/her theory, then throws out numbers that don't.

It's hardly shocking that on 3rd and 5, Garrett passes 95% of the time. I'm sure you can say that about other teams too. What the league average in this situation? We don't know. How much of an outlier are these numbers compared to the league average in these situations? We don't know. Is 83% rush plays on third and 1 really all that different than the league average? We don't know.

The fact is is that this article raises more questions than it answers. I think Garrett does need to work on his play calling. He is still inexperienced in this area compared to his comparables on other teams. But to draw definitive conclusions based on this article is not wise.

Just my $0.02 worth

[proline]

how many games has ed red played? how many teams? how many OCs?

when is the last time he said what he said after we played them?

if i recall, before that ravens game or right after, ray lewis said something very similar

look at the statistical breakdown by the OP

what does that tell you

are all these things wrong?

I wasn't aware that Ed Reed posts in this forum. I was specifically referring to the people on this forum that claim to be able to predict what play is coming so frequently. To that I say, "Prove it!"

I don't worry at all about what players say. Reed and Lewis are great players, but of course the winners are going to talk smack about how easy it was to figure things out.

[RXP]

I'd like to see some of these people claiming how predictable it is actually prove it. On one of the upcoming games, log your guess for each offensive play along with what actually happened. You might also log whether Romo audibles or not. Then post your results here. Let's see the results are really as predictable as you all claim.

I think guys who think they know every play coming would be shocked at how often they are wrong. Anybody can call a run or a pass. It's a 50-50 chance of success.

[visionary]

I guess it would help if guys caught the wide open passes instead of dropping them, maybe the play calling would not be so predictable. I guess Coughlin must be a moron, since Garrett is so predictable yet could not stop Dallas. :lmao:

i know it is a diffcult concept to grasp but things are not always linear or black and white

there are usually shades of gray

set aside your preconceived notions and read sturms article from today

a good OC/HC with as many weapons at offense as we do should not get rattled 10 points down against an offense let by a rookie 3rd round QB

inexcusable

[Doomsday101]

i know it is a diffcult concept to grasp but things are not always linear or black and white

there are usually shades of gray

set aside your preconceived notions and read sturms article from today

a good OC/HC with as many weapons at offense as we do should not get rattled 10 points down against an offense let by a rookie 3rd round QB

inexcusable

Players should not drop the damn ball on wide open plays. Was it is mistake to call a pass play that would have worked if the WR or TE catch the ball? :lmao:

The plays where there I can't blame Garrett for that I can blame players for not executing. I don't care what play is called in the end it comes down to a player making the damn play or not.

[visionary]

I wasn't aware that Ed Reed posts in this forum. I was specifically referring to the people on this forum that claim to be able to predict what play is coming so frequently. To that I say, "Prove it!"

I don't worry at all about what players say. Reed and Lewis are great players, but of course the winners are going to talk smack about how easy it was to figure things out.

lame attempt at a strawman

is garrett calling plays against the "people on this forum"

why does it matter whether or not we can tell what he is going to call?

what matters is the DCs and the defensve players our offense is going up against are often able to predict it

that is very very troublesome

maybe you find it comforting that our offesne is predictable

[Doomsday101]

lame attempt at a strawman

is garrett calling plays against the "people on this forum"

why does it matter whether or not we can tell what he is going to call?

what matters is the DCs and the defensve players our offense is going up against are often able to predict it

that is very very troublesome

maybe you find it comforting that our offesne is predictable

If they knew what we were running we would not have beaten NY and had seattle knew what we were running players would not have been wide open. Damn you do know players are out on the field with a job to do to blame the HC because the player failed to execute it? :laugh2:

[proline]

lame attempt at a strawman

is garrett calling plays against the "people on this forum"

why does it matter whether or not we can tell what he is going to call?

what matters is the DCs and the defensve players our offense is going up against are often able to predict it

that is very very troublesome

maybe you find it comforting that our offesne is predictable

Not a strawman at all. I just tried to help those who may have a reading disability to understand that my challenge is directed to those on this forum.

It doesn't matter what we on this forum think. Except for the fact that many on this forum claim that they can predict accurately. So let them prove it, and quit trying to turn my post into something it isn't. Of course I don't want our offense to be predictable. And maybe it is. But my challenge is specifically to those on the forum who claim to be able to predict what plays will be run. Nothing more was intended or implied by my post.