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View Full Version : Analysis: Trade Glover or Ellis if we move to a 3-4?


bfelt
04-22-2005, 02:47 PM
I’ve viewed several mock drafts in which we select 3-4 DE like Marcus Spears and a 4-3 DE/3-4 OLB like DeMarcus Ware. Below I’ve examined the question of whether, in such a situation, we would seek to trade Greg Ellis or La’Roi Glover.

Who would fit where in the coming year?
In a 3-4, Ferguson will obviously man the NT position. Spears, Ellis, and Glover would all likely be competing for the two DE spots. In a 4-3, Ware would likely man the RDE spot and Ellis or Spears at the LDE, Spears slides inside to DT. In that case, Spears would take Glover's spot, unless it's purely a pass rush situation in which you’d substitute Spears for Ferguson.

From a depth standpoint, it would be clearly beneficial to have all those players in rotation, keeping everyone fresh. That being said, Ellis will be turn 30 this August, and Glover turns 31 in July. We must examine if keeping this players is in the best interests of the franchise.

What are their contract situations?

Glover's contract runs through 2006 with the following compensation:

2005 3000000.00 + 1200000.00 bonus prorating + 500000.00 roster bonus
2006 4500000.00 + 1200000.00 bonus prorating

As far as a standard for comparison, the franchise amount for DTs in 2005 is $5.134 million, the average of the five highest paid players at the position. Over the next two years, Glover will average about 104% of that salary.

As best as I can tell, if we were to trade Glover, $2.4 mill would be accelerated into our cap this year, but we'd be free of his $3 mill salary this year, making it a net gain of $1.8 mill of cap space this year.

Ellis' contract runs through 2009 with the following compensation:

2005 2250000.00 + 700000.00 bonus prorating + 300000.00 roster bonus
2006 2250000.00 + 700000.00 bonus prorating + 500000.00 roster bonus
2007 2500000.00 + 700000.00 bonus prorating
2008 3325000.00 + 700000.00 bonus prorating
2009 4150000.00 + 700000.00 bonus prorating

As far as a standard for comparison, the franchise amount for DEs in 2005 is $6.666 million, the average of the five highest paid players at the position. Over the next two years, Ellis will average about 50% of that salary.

As best as I can tell, if we were to trade Ellis, $1.4 million would be accelerated into our cap this year, but we'd be free of his $2.55 million this year, making it a net gain of $2.25 million in cap space this year.

Where are they in their careers?
Ellis has seen increasing sack totals every year since 2000. Glover, after averaging 10 sacks a year in his five years with the Saints, has had seasons of 6.5, 5, and 7 sacks in his three years in Dallas, although he did make the Pro Bowl each year. Although only a year older, Glover has two more seasons of wear on his body.

Who could make a better 3-4 end?
Certainly, both are undersized for the position, Ellis at 271 lbs and Glover at 282 lbs. But consider this: Ellis is 6-6, 6-2 -- would Ellis be able to bulk up better into a 3-4 DE? I don't know that, but I do know that Richard Seymour is 6-6, Ty Warren is 6-5, Aaron Smith is 6-5, and Kimo von Oelhoffen is 6-4. Those would be the 3-4 DEs on the Patriots and Steelers, respectively. I don't know much about Ellis' body type or frame, but it appears that between the two, he has the better chance of looking the part of a 3-4 end.

Who would have more trade value?
If the going rate for someone like Darren Howard is a 2nd rounder, and Ellis is not too far behind Howard in productivity, but with a more appealing contract, Ellis might garner a 3rd round selection. If Corey Simon is worth a 2nd and 3rd round pick, the older but more productive Glover should merit at least a 2nd round pick.

So who would we be better off trading?
It’s by no means an open-and-shut case. La’Roi Glover is an excellent player and a Pro Bowler. He has not been surrounded by great talent in his time in Dallas (although neither has Ellis). However, he’s an older player whose best years are arguably behind him with a less cap-friendly contract and less potential to perform in the coming 3-4 transition. Also, he might gain the franchise more compensation in a trade.

Who might trade for Glover?
Perhaps the Giants would offer there 2nd round pick (#43 overall), but we'd rather not face Glover twice a year. Indianapolis? They've been linked to a trade with Glover before, and although I doubt they would offer Wayne and a 1st rounder, they might be inclined to offer their second rounder (#60 overall), or perhaps seek to get value for Wayne, who is in a contract year. We would of course have to extend his contract. Cincinnati also might be interested, with their second rounder #48 overall.

What could we really gain?
Depending on what we plan on doing with our other second rounder One of these second rounders could be used to add a linebacker like Barret Ruud, Kevin Burnett, Michael Boley, Channing Crowder, or Odell Thurman, all of whom would make us more potent in our future full-time 3-4.

Are we better off keeping Glover?
Again, this is not a question I am qualified to answer with the information and knowledge I have. However, the question seems to be one of winning now or later. Glover offers excellent performance and effort in the short term, very likely better than what a second round rookie would give us in year one. However, even in the short term, Glover may not be effective as a 3-4 DE if he is asked to play that position (see Warren Sapp, 2004), and he may not be worth his salary cap number if he is only used as a rotation player. If after our first two picks we can safely decide on a 3-4 alignment for this year and coming years, we may be best-served by moving Glover for a draft choice or a player who could make a more significant contribution to the team in the long run.

blindzebra
04-22-2005, 03:03 PM
What you are missing in your analysis is the what if they do that and stay 4-3?

A big problem with our defense is that out two best players up front, Ellis and Glover, both play too many snaps.

Getting Spears and Ware/Pollack/Roth/Cody/Tuck/Merriman gives you a pass rushing RDE and a rotational player in Spears that can play anywhere on the DL.

Base 4-3: Ellis, Ferguson*, Glover, Ware/other.

Base #2 Spears, Ferguson*, Glover, Ellis

Base #3 Spears, Ferguson*, Glover, Ware/other

Base #4 Ellis, Ferguson*, Spears, Ware/other

Base #5 Ellis, Ferguson*, Glover, Spears

*Carson would come in to spell Ferguson

Pass rush 4-3: Ellis, Spears, Glover, Ware/other

3-4: Spears, Ferguson, Glover/Ellis, Ware/other at OLB

Portland Fanatic
04-22-2005, 03:15 PM
This will piss a few of you off, but here it goes anyway....

#42 = 480 points
Glover worth about 450-500 points
= 930-980 points
= 16th-18th pic in round 1

Using Glover we could move up into the first round and maybe have pics #11, 17, and 20...Helping us get at least two of Merriman/Ware/Spears...who knows maybe all three....3-4 defense with playmakers in place.

Joe a Cowboys fan
04-22-2005, 03:30 PM
I believe we would use both 4/3 and a 3/4 defence to keep offences off balance and guessing. If so I would expect we would keep both playes. I know all that money is a lot but in the 90s we had depth 2 and 3 deep, although cheaper on the whole. If you have an edge I would think it a good idea to hang on to it. If they can press the QB like back in the good old days then the DBs will be off the hook faster and look better. Even if there are no world beater (my opinion) FSs available to us this year.

Tobal
04-22-2005, 03:47 PM
I'm not sure you can truly play both styles. I like Greg Ellis, I love Glover. If and only if you decide you are going 3-4 would you trade these guys.

If you did decide you were going to move one I think Glover is who you'd move because Ellis can add enough weight to play the 3-4 end. I'm not sure who has more value to other teams though.

conner01
04-22-2005, 03:52 PM
if we got lucky and got ware and spears to fit the 3-4 i still keep ellis and glover.i don't think glover has the trade value you think.hes getting up there and has a big salary.i invision using both ellis and glover in a 3-4 scheme.both are small for 3-4 de's but if you rotate ellis and glover you keep both fresh.use glover for fergy on obvious pass downs to get the penetration.this keeps everyone fresh and keeps the guys to run a 4-3 also.i don't see us using the 3-4 more than 40% of the time and i would'nt get rid of the guys you need for the 4-3.the great thing about n.e. is they can run both and ellis and glover with the two picks would give us the guys to run both

Tobal
04-22-2005, 03:55 PM
I tihnk Ellis is a guy that can bulk up and play a 3-4 end and still be productive as a 4-3 end. I'm just not sure how Gloversarm length will effect him, seems like those long armed tackles would cause him some issues.

Joe a Cowboys fan
04-22-2005, 04:25 PM
Greg Ellis has never been particularly petite IMO. But I love the flexibility of going both 4/3 and 3/4 and the ability to keep rotating in fresh players that can bring the heat. Pressuring the QB into leting go the ball in 3 seconds is always a good thing.

Doomsday101
04-22-2005, 04:28 PM
I would hate to see the Cowboys give up 2 very good players and think it would be a big mistake. Personally I don't think the Cowboys are even thinking about trading away Ellis or Glover

ravidubey
04-22-2005, 04:32 PM
One or both of Glover or Ellis may likely have to go after this season, so this year is the best possible time to start rebuilding the DL. No rookie is going to start from day one anyway. New Orleans did the same thing replacing Howard and now they have a good situation-- three excellent pass rushers in house and one on the trding block for a high pick.

Hollywood Henderson
04-22-2005, 04:37 PM
While Glover is a good guy, he isn't a dominating DT even though he made the pro bowl...

He salary is actual ok in terms of beiong able to trade him...

If I could get a high 2nd for him I would make the move based on his age alone...

Ellis is strong enough & good sized to play the 3-4 DE spot already...(Maybe add a few lbs)...to get into the 295 lb range...

Chocolate Lab
04-22-2005, 04:48 PM
I've wondered if one of them could be a surprise trade tomorrow, too.

But Glover is a tremendous player. I really would like to see him with Ferguson next to him. Ferguson will be the best player -- probably by a wide margin -- to play alongside La'Roi since he arrived.

And Ellis is such an outstanding team guy -- hard worker, good producer, underrated talent -- that I'd hate to see him go, too. He also has a very favorable contract for us.

On one hand, I'd like to see the 3-4 to see something different -- and something Parcells wholeheartedly believes in. But on the other, I'd also like to see the defense our best players already know with the additions of Ferguson, Henry, maybe Darren Howard, and an improved free safety.