Street & Smith's 2004 NFL Preview - Cowboys Tidbits

[TruBlueCowboy]

Like most die-hard NFL fans, I'll buy any book, magazine or DVD I can get my hands on before I have actual games to watch so I forked out a few bucks for another one of those NFL preview mags that litter newsstands this time of year. I got some good responses with the PFW 2004 preview, so I thought I'd give you the Cowboys and NFL highlights of the Street & Smith preview mag.

** S&S had an interesting article on the 2-point conversion and how a lot of NFL coaches still blow that decision. (i.e. Fox in the Super Bowl) A litte bit of NFL trivia for you. Q: Who designed the two-point conversion chart that's now standard in the NFL? A: Dick Vermeil 30 years ago as a UCLA assisstant.

** The worst teams in NFL history! Unfortunately, our Cowboys made the list.

#1 1981 Baltimore Colts 2-14
#2 1990 New England Patriots 1-15 (another example of how great a coach Parcells is, he rebuilt that franchise)
#3 1952 Dallas Texans 1-11
#4 1971 Buffalo Bills 1-13
#5 1989 Dallas Cowboys 1-15
#6 1980 New Orleans Saints 1-15
#7 1946 Detroit Lions 1-10
#8 1982 Baltimore Colts 0-8-1
#9 1965 Pittsburgh Steelers 2-12
#10 2002 Cincinnati Bengals 2-14
#11 1996 New York Jets 1-15 (yet one more team rebuilt by Parcells)
#12 1960 Dallas Cowboys 0-11-1
#13 1987 Atlanta Falcons 3-12
#14 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-14
#15 1986 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-14
#16 1983 Houston Oilers 2-14 (Earl's last rush to glory)
#17 1991 Indianapolis Colts 1-15
#18 1967 Atlanta Falcons 1-12-1
#19 1979 Detroit Lions 2-14
#20 1999 Cleveland Browns 2-14

** S&S has a short article on how GMs and coaches are placing less emphasis on the QB now to win the Super Bowl. Use the examples such as SB teams going to the big one with Delhomme, Warner, Dilfer, etc.. Green Bay's Director of Pro Personnel states that teams would rather go after pass rushers, shutdown corners and a better offensive line first. Gil Brandt says that QBs are better coming out of college than they were in his days.

** Cowboys draft grade: C- S&S thought the Cowboys shouldn't have passed on CB Derrick Strait in the 2nd round and lowered the final grade because Dallas didn't pick any corners in the first day. Apparently, S&S doesn't have much faith in Pete Hunter. (BTW, they gave the Buffalo Bills a C grade.)

** For what it's worth, Julius Jones is #6 on their fantasy football rookies to watch.

** AFC Conference Champion prediction is Indianapolis vs. New England, NFC Conference Champion prediction is Philadelphia vs. Atlanta, Super Bowl prediction is the Patriots over the Eagles

** NFC East Predictions (no records)
#1 Philadelphia Eagles
#2 Washington Redskins :mad:
#3 Dallas Cowboys
#4 New York Giants
The Redskins are predicted to be an NFC Wild Card.

** NFC East Division's Best
Best Big-Game Player: NYG DE Michael Strahan
Best Rusher: WAS RB Clinton Portis
Best Receiver: WAS WR Laveranues Coles
Best Tackler: DAL LB Dat Nguyen
Best Special-Teams Warrior: PHI LB Ike Reese
Best Teammate: DAL TE Dan Campbell
Best Sense of Humor: NYG OG Rich Seubert (but predicts it will go down under Tom Coughlin :D )
Best Intellect: PHI FB Jon Ritchie
Best Sideline Strategist: DAL HC Bill Parcells
Best Front-Office Executive: PHI HC/VP Andy Reid

** I know you've probably read this quote before, but I love it. It really makes me feel more secure with the Julius Jones pick. Julius: "They had a chance to pick whoever they wanted and they passed it up and got me. I just feel lucky and blessed. I'm glad to be here and hopefully I can make them happy they picked me."

** Cowboys Grades
Quarterbacks: C- (Testaverde not in the calculation)
Running Backs: C-
Receivers: B-
Offensive Line: C (Didn't mention Al Johnson as starting center, which makes me skeptical they paid much attention to Cowboys)
Defensive Line: B-
Linebackers: A-
Secondary: A-
Special Teams: C
Management: B+

** Bottom line is the usual, the NFC East is much tougher this year. And S&S thinks that the Cowboys offense still stinks too much to improve on last year's record.

[Hostile]

Thank you for breaking that down like that. I haven't bought Street & Smith's yet but I did Athlons and Lindys. To my sheer delight Roy Williams was on the cover of both. I never get Cowboys covers here even though they are this state's favorite team by far.

[MichaelWinicki]

I always thought "Street & Smith" should be retitled "**** & ****".

[DandyDon]

MichaelW......Who's the girl in the picture?

[AdamJT13]

** The worst teams in NFL history! Unfortunately, our Cowboys made the list.

#1 1981 Baltimore Colts 2-14
#2 1990 New England Patriots 1-15 (another example of how great a coach Parcells is, he rebuilt that franchise)
#3 1952 Dallas Texans 1-11
#4 1971 Buffalo Bills 1-13
#5 1989 Dallas Cowboys 1-15
#6 1980 New Orleans Saints 1-15
#7 1946 Detroit Lions 1-10
#8 1982 Baltimore Colts 0-8-1
#9 1965 Pittsburgh Steelers 2-12
#10 2002 Cincinnati Bengals 2-14
#11 1996 New York Jets 1-15 (yet one more team rebuilt by Parcells)
#12 1960 Dallas Cowboys 0-11-1
#13 1987 Atlanta Falcons 3-12
#14 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-14
#15 1986 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-14
#16 1983 Houston Oilers 2-14 (Earl's last rush to glory)
#17 1991 Indianapolis Colts 1-15
#18 1967 Atlanta Falcons 1-12-1
#19 1979 Detroit Lions 2-14
#20 1999 Cleveland Browns 2-14

There's an example of someone trying to get cute with their rankings. The 1981 Colts as the worst team? The 1976 Bucs only 14th-worst? And the 3-12 Falcons ranked worse than 68 different teams that won zero, one or two games?

The 1981 Colts won two games; the 1976 Bucs won none. The 1981 Colts were shut out once; the 1976 Bucs were shut out five times (in two fewer games).

The 1981 Colts were seventh in yards per rush and 16th in yards per pass; the 1976 Bucs were 28th and 25th.

The 1981 Colts' quarterback (Bert Jones) completed 57 percent of his passes for 3,094 yards and threw more touchdowns (21) than interceptions (20). The 1976 Bucs' quarterback completed 50 percent of his passes for 1,628 yards and had almost twice as many interceptions (12) as touchdown passes (seven).

The 1981 Colts' leading rusher (Curtis Dickey) gained 779 yards, averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns. The 1976 Bucs' leading rusher (Louis Carter) gained 521 yards, averaged 3.0 yards per carry and scored one touchdown.

The 1981 Colts had two running backs with more than 1,000 combined yards from scrimmage (rushing and receiving), had five players with at least 36 catches and had a receiver who had 832 yards and nine touchdowns. The 1976 Bucs didn't have a single player with more than 656 yards from scrimmage, didn't have a single player with more than 30 catches, and their top receiver had only 390 yards.

It's no contest which team was worse.

[TruBlueCowboy]

There's an example of someone trying to get cute with their rankings. The 1981 Colts as the worst team? The 1976 Bucs only 14th-worst? And the 3-12 Falcons ranked worse than 68 different teams that won zero, one or two games?

The 1981 Colts won two games; the 1976 Bucs won none. The 1981 Colts were shut out once; the 1976 Bucs were shut out five times (in two fewer games).

The 1981 Colts were seventh in yards per rush and 16th in yards per pass; the 1976 Bucs were 28th and 25th.

The 1981 Colts' quarterback (Bert Jones) completed 57 percent of his passes for 3,094 yards and threw more touchdowns (21) than interceptions (20). The 1976 Bucs' quarterback completed 50 percent of his passes for 1,628 yards and had almost twice as many interceptions (12) as touchdown passes (seven).

The 1981 Colts' leading rusher (Curtis Dickey) gained 779 yards, averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns. The 1976 Bucs' leading rusher (Louis Carter) gained 521 yards, averaged 3.0 yards per carry and scored one touchdown.

The 1981 Colts had two running backs with more than 1,000 combined yards from scrimmage (rushing and receiving), had five players with at least 36 catches and had a receiver who had 832 yards and nine touchdowns. The 1976 Bucs didn't have a single player with more than 656 yards from scrimmage, didn't have a single player with more than 30 catches, and their top receiver had only 390 yards.

It's no contest which team was worse.

I thought the '76 Buccs should have been a lot higher on that list too. I don't think many bad teams in NFL history are still brought up as much as that Buccs squad.

The reason given in S&S why they picked the '81 Colts was because it was the worse defense in history according to them. Allowing 4.25 touchdowns and 426 yard per game and eight losses were by more than 21 points. They won 2 games but its misleading because they only won the first 2 and then lost 14 straight to finish the season.

[TruBlueCowboy]

I always thought "Street & Smith" should be retitled "**** & ****".

LOL The main reason I buy their football guide is because I grew up on their baseball guide. :)

[Bach]

#5 1989 Dallas Cowboys 1-15
#6 1980 New Orleans Saints 1-15


Ouch...'89 Cowboys worse than the '80 Bag-wearin'-Aints.



** AFC Conference Champion prediction is Indianapolis vs. New England, NFC Conference Champion prediction is Philadelphia vs. Atlanta, Super Bowl prediction is the Patriots over the Eagles

Atlanta? More Michael Vick hype without him having accomplished anything yet.

I don't want to see the Patriots win the SB and match Dallas's 3 in 4 years record - but if it comes down to NE and Philly, then NE is a no-brainer.

[TruBlueCowboy]

Atlanta? More Michael Vick hype without him having accomplished anything yet.


I think Michael Vick deserves a lot of the hype but I agree with you that an NFC Championship game prediction may be going a little too far. That team seemed to have more problems than just the QB last year. They were 3-1 when he started though last year after the injury so there may be something to that.

[baj1dallas]

Ouch...'89 Cowboys worse than the '80 Bag-wearin'-Aints.




Atlanta? More Michael Vick hype without him having accomplished anything yet.

I don't want to see the Patriots win the SB and match Dallas's 3 in 4 years record - but if it comes down to NE and Philly, then NE is a no-brainer.



He hasn't accomplished anything? Not ONE thing?

Not like, say, leading the first team ever into Lambeau to win a playoff game on the road?

[AdamJT13]

I thought the '76 Buccs should have been a lot higher on that list too. I don't think many bad teams in NFL history are still brought up as much as that Buccs squad.

The reason given in S&S why they picked the '81 Colts was because it was the worse defense in history according to them. Allowing 4.25 touchdowns and 426 yard per game and eight losses were by more than 21 points. They won 2 games but its misleading because they only won the first 2 and then lost 14 straight to finish the season.

The Colts actually won their first and last games -- both against the New England Patriots (who went 2-14 as well). And the Colts' defense was awful, but their offense WAS good enough to win two games (29-28 and 23-21).

Also, the 1981 Colts had a much tougher schedule (.533 opponents' winning percentage, compared to .484 for the 1976 Bucs). The Colts played only four of 16 games against teams that finished with a losing record -- winning two, losing one by 11 and losing one by 14. The Bucs played seven of 14 games against losing teams (including one against the expansion Seahawks) and lost all seven, by an average of 13.9 points, including three shutouts by a combined 77 points (34-0 to the 3-11 Jets, 20-0 to the 5-9 Oilers and 23-0 to the 6-8 Chargers).

There is a modified Pythagorean Formula that, despite some flaws, is pretty good at approximating how many games a team SHOULD have won based on their total points scored and allowed. According to the formula, the 1981 Colts (259 scored, 533 allowed) should have won 2.1 games out of 16, while the 1976 Bucs (125 scored, 412 allowed) should have won 0.8 out of 14.

[TruBlueCowboy]

There is a modified Pythagorean Formula that, despite some flaws, is pretty good at approximating how many games a team SHOULD have won based on their total points scored and allowed. According to the formula, the 1981 Colts (259 scored, 533 allowed) should have won 2.1 games out of 16, while the 1976 Bucs (125 scored, 412 allowed) should have won 0.8 out of 14.

LOL .8 wins! :eek: You don't happen to have a link for a site that has already calculated team's results, do you? I'd be interested in reading where the formula places the Cowboys in several years. And you're right about the Colts schedule, I was reading the wrong team, they did lose 14 straight but it was the first and last of the season.

[AdamJT13]

You don't happen to have a link for a site that has already calculated team's results, do you? I'd be interested in reading where the formula places the Cowboys in several years.

There isn't a site that has everything figured out already, but there is a handy calculator that lets you put in the points scored, points allowed and games played, and it spits out the team's projected record. Just make sure you change the sport to football.

http://www.morey.org/dmorey/modpyth.html

For eample, the formula says the 1960 Cowboys (0-11-1) should have won 1.8 games and the 1989 Cowboys (1-15) should have won 2.8 games. It also says the 1992 Cowboys (13-3) should have won 12.4 games and the 1977 Cowboys (12-2) should have won 10.6. One of the formula's flaws is that it gravitates toward a .500 winning percentage, so the worst teams almost always "should have" won more games and the best teams almost always "should have" lost more (which you can see from the four examples above). However, it does say that the 1968 Cowboys, who went 12-2 and outscored their opponents 431-186, should have won 12.3 games.

A much simpler formula that I use, based on scoring margins instead of scoring ratios, says that the 1960 Cowboys (0-11-1) should have gone 0-12, the 1989 Cowboys (1-15) should have won 1.7 games, the 1992 Cowboys (13-3) should have won 13.5 games, the 1977 Cowboys (12-2) should have won 12.1 games and the 1968 Cowboys (12-2) should have gone 14-0. As you can see, other than the 1968 team, compared to the modified Pythagorean Formula, this formula comes closer to predicting the actual record each time.

[TruBlueCowboy]

There isn't a site that has everything figured out already, but there is a handy calculator that lets you put in the points scored, points allowed and games played, and it spits out the team's projected record. Just make sure you change the sport to football.

http://www.morey.org/dmorey/modpyth.html

For eample, the formula says the 1960 Cowboys (0-11-1) should have won 1.8 games and the 1989 Cowboys (1-15) should have won 2.8 games. It also says the 1992 Cowboys (13-3) should have won 12.4 games and the 1977 Cowboys (12-2) should have won 10.6. One of the formula's flaws is that it gravitates toward a .500 winning percentage, so the worst teams almost always "should have" won more games and the best teams almost always "should have" lost more (which you can see from the four examples above). However, it does say that the 1968 Cowboys, who went 12-2 and outscored their opponents 431-186, should have won 12.3 games.

A much simpler formula that I use, based on scoring margins instead of scoring ratios, says that the 1960 Cowboys (0-11-1) should have gone 0-12, the 1989 Cowboys (1-15) should have won 1.7 games, the 1992 Cowboys (13-3) should have won 13.5 games, the 1977 Cowboys (12-2) should have won 12.1 games and the 1968 Cowboys (12-2) should have gone 14-0. As you can see, other than the 1968 team, compared to the modified Pythagorean Formula, this formula comes closer to predicting the actual record each time.

Thanks for the link. :cool:

I did some stuff on the recent Cowboys squad. I was interested in seeing if the formula had the Cowboys as overachieving under Parcells or underachieving under Campo.

2003 9.00 Wins 7.00 Losses (pretty darn close, overachieved just a little)
2002 4.35 Wins 11.65 Losses (overachieved by one game w/Campo in his last year :p )
2001 5.12 Wins 10.88 Losses (right on)

[Kangaroo]

Even in are worse hour we rised up and snatch a win from them :]

Mine what a horrible season I watched that season in horror gag

Man how those memories haunt me

[big dog cowboy]

LOL The main reason I buy their football guide is because I grew up on their baseball guide. :)

The main reason I buy their football guide is.......wait a minute. I don't buy their freekin football guide.

[big dog cowboy]

** The worst teams in NFL history! Unfortunately, our Cowboys made the list.


OK whatever. I'll just have to setting for 5 of 8 in Super Bowls. Somebody top that!

[big dog cowboy]

NFC Conference Champion prediction is Philadelphia vs. Atlanta

Philly? Maybe. ATL??????? I guess it is never to early to start the Mick Vick hype PR machine. Please.

[big dog cowboy]

** Cowboys Grades
Quarterbacks: C- (Testaverde not in the calculation)
Running Backs: C-
Receivers: B-
Offensive Line: C (Didn't mention Al Johnson as starting center, which makes me skeptical they paid much attention to Cowboys)
Defensive Line: B-
Linebackers: A-
Secondary: A-
Special Teams: C
Management: B+


I want to see these grades after this year. I'll bet most of those B- and lower grades are higher. Our team is better than that. We will prove that as the season goes along.