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MichaelWinicki
07-04-2004, 01:25 PM
Uncertainty Prevails

By Mike Rabun

It will be remembered that most of the essays in the required reading back when we all signed up for Pro Football 101 had to do with the philosophy of, "defense wins championships."

But things have been known to change.

In today's classroom, there are instructors who have altered that core belief to something like this:

"A great defense wins championships, but there are not that many truly great ones out there anymore. So, as a precaution, it is wise to have an offense that can put the ball in the end zone with reasonable regularity."

As the Dallas Cowboys approach the 2004 season, there is a certain amount of giddiness to be found upon the land.

After all, the most recent go-round produced a playoff berth - a big-time jump from the three downtrodden seasons that had gone before.

With Bill Parcells entering his second campaign, the optimistic prognosis is for greater things ahead. And maybe the end result will be just as rosy as the optimists expect it to be.

That result, however, is going to depend on the quality of the offense and the quantity of its production - items currently surrounded by much mystery.

In this year's National Football League history book, and in all the ones that will follow, the Cowboys will be listed as having had the best defense of all in 2003.

That accolade will be perpetually awarded because the Cowboys held their opponents to a league-low 253.5 yards per game. The number of points allowed per game was a very impressive 16.25, second best in the NFL.

Dallas' defense, however, was a long way from being great because 20 other teams had more sacks than did the Cowboys and 24 other teams had more interceptions.

It was not a defense that won championships. In the playoff game against Super Bowl entry Carolina, the defense gave up a 77-yard drive that led to a field goal, a 51-yard drive that resulted in a touchdown and a 63-yard drive that ended in another touchdown.

The defense was good. But it was not overwhelming. It is reasonable to expect another good defense this year. It is not reasonable to expect the kind of defense that can win a championship on its own.

A considerable amount of pressure, therefore, will fall on the Cowboys' offense. Just where that offense winds up, obviously, is impossible to tell. It says here, however, that where it is starting out looks very much the way it looked at the beginning of 2003 - rather vague.

When last year's training camp began, the new coach was looking for a No. One quarterback. There was an assortment to choose from.

He was also in the market for a No. One running back since there was a gap created by the exit of a fellow who just happened to have gained more yards than any other rusher in league history.

A varied group of receivers was on hand with the key question being whether the soon-to-be-appointed quarterback could get the ball into those receivers' hands.

The offensive line was unsettled.

From that conglomeration, the Cowboys surprisingly became the top-ranked offense in the league for the first few weeks of the season.

It did not last.

As far as yards gained were concerned, Dallas ranked right in the middle of the pack. When it came to points scored, the Cowboys were worse than that - No. 21 out of 32.

Quincy Carter, who emerged as the best the team had at quarterback, ranked 11th in his conference. He threw for just 177 yards fewer than NFC-leader Daunte Culpepper, but Culpepper completed 7.5 percent more passes, threw eight more touchdowns and 10 fewer interceptions.

There were 18 1,000-yard rushers in the league last year and none of them played for the Cowboys. Troy Hambrick did the vast majority of the rushing work for the team and his yards-per-carry average of 3.5 was the lowest of any starter in the league.

Highlight moments certainly occurred from time to time for most of the offensive weapons on the team in 2003, enough to bring about 10 victories and a playoff berth.

Nevertheless, it took a very short period of time after the start of the Cowboys' first playoff game in four years to realize that their offense was not going to get it done.

Now, more than five months later, what do we have?

We have Bill Parcells seeking out a No. One quarterback. There is an assortment to choose from.

Sounds familiar.

Carter is still there, but he must prove himself again.

If Vinny Testaverde can produce the numbers over the course of 500 passes that he did over 198 last season, the Cowboys would be in good shape. But that is problematical.

And then there is Drew Henson, who must start from scratch.

At running back, the Cowboys will start over for the second straight season. This time, they will really start over.

The most controversial decision made by Parcells since his arrival came on draft day when he bypassed Steven Jackson and went with Notre Dame's Julius Jones.

Jones is it. If he does not come through, Plan B will have to be put in place. As of now, Plan B is not readily apparent.

One of last year's receivers is gone and another has crossed the boss, leaving his future in doubt.

Once again, whether the appointed quarterback can get the ball into the hands of the receivers is a bit of a lottery.

The arrival of Keyshawn Johnson has made headlines, but how many touchdowns will he create?

Touchdowns, after all, are the name of the game. Dallas made just 31 of them a year ago - less than one every other quarter. Kansas City had twice as many as did the Cowboys.

When the team convened in 2003, there was plenty of doubt about what kind of offensive club it would be.

That team made the playoffs, but did not create any sort of short-term offensive legacy. In fact, we seem to be right back where we started.

And even if improvement is forthcoming, it is wise to remember a remark from Parcells at the close of last season.

The Cowboys can be better on the field in 2004 than they were in 2003, he said, and still not have as good a record.

That doesn't mean improvement both on the field and in the won-loss column cannot be achieved. But if such improvements are made, they will come about by overcoming some familiar question marks.

Hostile
07-04-2004, 04:42 PM
Great post. Here is my laundry list of what I am hoping for in 2004. There is no particular order even though I numbered this list.

1. Buffalo to stink out loud. I want that top 5 draft pick so we can get Mike Williams from USC.

2. More sacks and pressure on the QB by the front 4. I'd like to see this team get 40 QB sacks. Very important to me.

3. More takeaways. I'd like to see the defense get 35 or more takeaways. Cause more fumbles. Pick off more passes.

4. Field position on Special teams. Toby Gowin killed me with his 30 yard punts, but our PR and KR people didn't exactly light it up. I'd like to see our opponents inside their own 25 but the Cowboys to be beyond their own 35 yard line on average for the season.

5. I want to see Julius Jones lead the RBs into use having a ball control push them back on their heals and wear down the defense attack. I want the running game to drive the offense by simply keeping the chains moving.

6. I would like to see the passing game use the whole field. This will make the running game more effective. I definitely want a high percentage of completions and especially at crucial times.

I'm not asking much am I? :D

LaTunaNostra
07-04-2004, 05:08 PM
Great post. Here is my laundry list of what I am hoping for in 2004. There is no particular order even though I numbered this list.

1. Buffalo to stink out loud. I want that top 5 draft pick so we can get Mike Williams from USC.

2. More sacks and pressure on the QB by the front 4. I'd like to see this team get 40 QB sacks. Very important to me.

3. More takeaways. I'd like to see the defense get 35 or more takeaways. Cause more fumbles. Pick off more passes.

4. Field position on Special teams. Toby Gowin killed me with his 30 yard punts, but our PR and KR people didn't exactly light it up. I'd like to see our opponents inside their own 25 but the Cowboys to be beyond their own 35 yard line on average for the season.

5. I want to see Julius Jones lead the RBs into use having a ball control push them back on their heals and wear down the defense attack. I want the running game to drive the offense by simply keeping the chains moving.

6. I would like to see the passing game use the whole field. This will make the running game more effective. I definitely want a high percentage of completions and especially at crucial times.

I'm not asking much am I? :D


Nice article Mike, and great post, TH.

You do realize you have documented your desires and they WILL be revisited on you, don't you? :D Does that list indicate that you will be "satisifed" if they all occur?

I don't think you're asking too much. My list for what will "satisfy" me in 04 is much more, uhh, detailed, nit picky, and relentless.

MichaelWinicki
07-04-2004, 05:10 PM
Great post. Here is my laundry list of what I am hoping for in 2004. There is no particular order even though I numbered this list.

1. Buffalo to stink out loud. I want that top 5 draft pick so we can get Mike Williams from USC.

2. More sacks and pressure on the QB by the front 4. I'd like to see this team get 40 QB sacks. Very important to me.

3. More takeaways. I'd like to see the defense get 35 or more takeaways. Cause more fumbles. Pick off more passes.

4. Field position on Special teams. Toby Gowin killed me with his 30 yard punts, but our PR and KR people didn't exactly light it up. I'd like to see our opponents inside their own 25 but the Cowboys to be beyond their own 35 yard line on average for the season.

5. I want to see Julius Jones lead the RBs into use having a ball control push them back on their heals and wear down the defense attack. I want the running game to drive the offense by simply keeping the chains moving.

6. I would like to see the passing game use the whole field. This will make the running game more effective. I definitely want a high percentage of completions and especially at crucial times.

I'm not asking much am I? :D


But what is your intent with this post Hos? :D

Hostile
07-04-2004, 05:16 PM
Nice article Mike, and great post, TH.

You do realize you have documented your desires and they WILL be revisited on you, don't you? :D Does that list indicate that you will be "satisifed" if they all occur?

I don't think you're asking too much. My list for what will "satisfy" me in 04 is much more, uhh, detailed, nit picky, and relentless.
Well, since the last time my hopes were misinterpretted to fit an agenda I figure these will too. Won't matter that he struck out looking. Notice I did not indicate anything about a particular QB, just talking passing game in general. No attempt was made to pour gasoline on the fire. No candidate, just an expectation. It will still raise someone's hackles. I'd bet on it.

BTW, I still expect the offense to score. :D

Hostile
07-04-2004, 05:17 PM
But what is your intent with this post Hos? :D
You'll have to ask Jiminy Cricket, I mean my conscience, I mean you know who, since he thinks I do not know.

LaTunaNostra
07-04-2004, 05:21 PM
Notice I did not indicate anything about a particular QB, just talking passing game in general. No attempt was made to pour gasoline on the fire. No candidate, just an expectation. It will still raise someone's hackles. I'd bet on it.

BTW, I still expect the offense to score. :D

Oh, I noticed that. :p

You might get that full field advantage, after all.

Vinnie's half, and Quincy's.

I want to hear more...like some individual player markers, or units. (and no, I'm not trying to goad you into a "QB" prediction").

What will make you reasonably content with the hasbeen receivers?

Hostile
07-04-2004, 05:56 PM
Oh, I noticed that. :p

You might get that full field advantage, after all.

Vinnie's half, and Quincy's.

I want to hear more...like some individual player markers, or units. (and no, I'm not trying to goad you into a "QB" prediction").

What will make you reasonably content with the hasbeen receivers?
Wow, good question.

I'd like to address defensive expectations more than offensive since I think our defense gives us the best chance to win, but to your health...

I really expect a RB by committee approach with Julius getting the lion's share of the work. If the rushing offense can average 4.5 yards per carry and give us a chance to control the clock I am going to be really exicted. Last year we fell 1 yard shy of 2000 yards rushing as a team and averaged 124.9 yards rushing per game. As a point of reference Baltimore, led by Jamal Lewis, topped the NFL at 2674 yards and 167.1 per game. While I don't expect us to approach that at this point I'd like to see improvement because it means we're running the clock and wearing the defenses down while resting ours. This is the biggest offensive weapon I think we could possess. Very hard for me to project an individual's performance. As a team I'd hope we have improved enough to split the difference with Baltimore. That is achievable but not easy. All goals ought to be a little hard to achieve.

Our pass offense worries me to no end. No need for me to lie. If I can let me use a food analogy. (Even though I know they upset a certain archivist.) We have 4 different varieties of fast food hamburgers and a piece of raw meat that has the potential to be a steak. Now, you can overcook or undercook a steak and make it worse than the burgers, but a steak will still whet your appetite more if it is prepared right.

The big thing for me is to see the handcuffs come off. Many people believe the addition of a running game will solve this. I do not. I think ti will help it, not solve it. The only way to solve it is to be able to make the defense trying to stop you pay dearly. Best way I know to do that is execute and right now I don't think our passing game executes worth a flip.

I am not a fan of Keyshawn Johnson. Having said that, I have no doubt that his performance can help this team. His attitude could hurt it, but I have a feeling his respect for Parcells will balance the attitude. His best days may be behind him, but he can still move the chains. Glenn will be the TD threat in my opinion along with Witten. I really expect Witten to have an amazing year. I'd really like to phase Richie out of the passing offense by giving the ops to Cason and Julius, but I doubt that happens any time soon. Truthfully I sort of expect the passing yardage to be pretty close to last year's numbers yardage wise, but hopefully will have a higher comp %, yards per attempt, and better TD to INT ratio. Basic overall productive execution.

This is why I don't mind starting the rookie if he can throw to all areas of the field. The key really is the running game. Take pressure off the QB so that all he has to do is execute. Give him confidence.

I'd like to see the offense actually look dangerous for more than 2 or 3 games on the season against weak opponents. I honestly don't think our offense scared anyone last year. Why would it? The defense will still carry the load in 2004 with the Special Teams helping that cause.

I do not usually do individual stat predictions or expectations.

Oh yeah, I want more scoring and winning. :D

blindzebra
07-04-2004, 06:18 PM
I'd rather have a defense in the top 7 in yards, points, sacks, and turnovers.

I'd like a top 5 running game in yards and YPC.

I'd like a top 15 passing game, where we had a good comp %, and at least 7 more TDs than INTs.

I'd like an offense that coverts TDs in the red zone and does not have to settle for FGs.

LaTunaNostra
07-04-2004, 06:39 PM
Nice one, TH.

I want to see Tuna's offense show the promise of a mean, unrelenting, chain moving machine with big play capability to keep it all honest.

I want to see nasty, road grading, massive hole opening linemen, and pass protection that is as aggressive as it is effective. I want our guys to hurt people (as opposed to injure).

I want fearless and mean tight ends and for Bill to get the kind of TE he loves, that gives him options, like he had in Bavaro and Coates, but we never gave him in NY.

All these guys - Campbell, Witten, Whalen, Robinson, Ryan, Trusty. (I suspect Whalen is the ood man out and Jeff to primarily snap, but he used for a few surprises like he was last year. )

But the others - what an impact they could make on play diversity and personnel packages. Two TE sets, H back stuff. I want to see them secure the point of attack and give JJ that outsdie advantage. JJ was drafted to run outside as well as in. I want that to be a given. We need a Ryan or Campbell to assure that. I want to see that Trusty hulk flatten dline men. And see Witten provide the short/intermediate precise route running and sure hands, but also make any linebacker who crosses him pay.

I hope that Trusty kid really is something special and has some speed. I want a Tony Gonzalez TE with good blocking technique as well as a Campbell. But I will settle for Shannon Sharpe. :o Just make the TE position a strength - I want a full field theat at TE from one of these guys. I don't want to hear the name Shockey. At all.

I want to see agility and traps, perfectly executed sweeps, pulling center and guards. I want our runners to have options, and use good vision, learn to patiently follow blocks and then explode thru the holes. I want chip on the shoulder tails and old school fullbacks. I want all stops pulled out short of chop blocking.

I want to see all these smart kids we drafted play smart and the vets play even smarter.

I want Keyshawn to open doors and shut up about it. I want Terry to go to the Pro Bowl, and every week put his stats in my signature.

I want Quincy to shut his detractors up.

I want a Bill Parcells offense like the Jints first SB with 40 freaking minutes time of possession. I want to win by mauling, by dominating, by winning the game in the first five minutes because they are scared of us. I want them to pay, and pay, and pay. And think about it with such trepidation it is over before it begins.

I want grind it out, "boring" ball that is really the most exciting because you watch the line battles and see what your team is doing to theirs, and laugh. I want a punishing run game with solid play action and punctuated with beautiful long passes hitting receivers in stride.

I want the conference championship game at the very least.

big dog cowboy
07-04-2004, 11:39 PM
I'll be more concerned with our offense if we don't look decent after the first few games. It might take that long to get everybody on the same page. Hopefully not.