StarMan
07-08-2004, 09:42 PM
All eyes on escalating NFC East
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(July 8, 2004) -- The NFC East is the premier place to be in NFL circles, like it or not. No team from this division has won the Super Bowl since the glory days of the Dallas Cowboys back in the mid-1990s, but it still draws the most attention on a national level.
For example, the Washington Redskins finished 5-11 last year, yet they will play three primetime games this season. The Cowboys had one playoff game last year (a loss to the Panthers) and came off three consecutive 5-11 seasons, but they will four primetime games.
Compare those facts to the Carolina Panthers, who took the Patriots to the wire in the Super Bowl, but will play only twice in the evening in front of America. Indianapolis and Peyton Manning will get less exposure than the Cowboys. A team like Seattle -- which won 10 last year, took Green Bay to overtime in the playoffs and scored over 400 points in the regular season -- will get one shot at football after dark.
You get the point -- the NFC East is a big deal, and you have to look no further than the four head coaches in the division.
All four head coaches have winning records in the NFL. Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells, Andy Reid and Tom Coughlin have a combined career record of 391-155-1. As a group they have an astounding playoff record of 36-20 and a Super Bowl record of 5-2.
Now it's a volatile division with Gibbs and Coughlin taking over the Redskins and New York Giants, respectively. A year ago, Parcells took over the Cowboys. A year or two from now, there will be changes again somewhere in the NFC East.
The irony in this division is that the most stable franchise is the the team with the youngest head coach, who has the fewest career victories and the highest expectations to get to Super Bowl XXXIX. The Philadelphia Eagles are built for right now. After three consecutive runner-up finishes in the NFC playoffs, Reid and his staff are tired of coaching in the Pro Bowl in Hawaii and will accept nothing less than a trip to Jacksonville in February. Parcells, Coughlin and Gibbs were brought in to prevent that from happening. It should make for a very interesting season.
In a division that never sits still, the talent on the field also is improved. Clinton Portis, Terrell Owens, Jevon Kearse, Keyshawn Johnson and Mark Brunell are only a few of the newcomers. It's also a place where a number of players switched teams inside the division, which will add to the competitive spirit. Linebackers Carlos Emmons, Mike Barrow and Dhani Jones traded in one East uniform for another, as did defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin, receiver James Thrash and cornerback Ralph Brown, among others.
Five questions that are critical for this division in 2004 are:
Can the Washington Redskins finally live up to the preseason hype that was built up in seasons past under Steve Spurrier, Marty Schottenheimer and Norv Turner?
Can the Eagles get back to the NFC championship game and win it for a change?
Is the Giants' rebuilding project going to take longer than many think? Are they in a rebuilding project or a reloading project?
Dallas clearly has an eye on the long-range future. Is 2005 when the Cowboys really expect to make their move?
Every owner in this division will spend to win. What will happen to the team(s) that falls short?
So, what's in store for this year?
Dallas
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones got his money's worth from Parcells in Year 1. He is a master of turning around a football team overnight, and he took a team that was 5-11 in 2002 and made it a 10-6 playoff team in 2003.
It's possible the 2004 Cowboys will be a better team and not improve upon their record. I never believed in strength of schedule as an issue in the NFL. Every game is a challenge; often the games you are supposed to win on paper turn out to be the hardest ones to handle. Some claim the Cowboys have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2004. Well, last year the Cowboys were 4-4 on the road, and this season they will play in Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore and Seattle, in addition to their division opponents. That's not easy.
Remember, including their playoff loss to the Panthers, the Cowboys finished the season with a 2-4 slide. They were also shut out twice during the regular season -- 16-0 to Tampa and 12-0 to New England. Drew Henson will not be ready in 2004, so Parcells might play Vinny Testaverde in one of his "hold the fort" personnel decisions if Quincy Carter continues to frustrate him with interceptions (21 in 2003).
There will be lots of pressure on rookie running back Julius Jones to replace Troy Hambrick, who was cut. Offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon has a real eye for running-back talent and years ago he stood on the table to convince Parcells to take Curtis Martin. In 1995 as a rookie with the Patriots, Martin rushed 368 times for 1,487 yards and 14 touchdowns -- and he was a third-round pick. If Hambrick got 972 yards in 275 carries last season, Jones -- a second-round pick -- should get 300 carries and over 1,000 yards.
When it's time to throw, Keyshawn Johnson will add a nice "chain-moving" target over the middle. Parcells gets the most out of Keyshawn, and his numbers should be back up around 75 receptions and eight touchdowns. Tight end Jason Whitten caught 23 passes in the last six regular-season games; we might see him catch 50 this season. If Testaverde gets significant time under center, Whitten will see the ball. Terry Glenn and Antonio Bryant round out a good receiver group. Don't think of Parcells as a coach who merely wants to run the ball and play defense. Under Parcells, Drew Bledsoe once passed over 600 times in a season and Carter threw more than 500 passes last season.
The defense is the Cowboys' pride and joy. Mike Zimmer did a great job leading Dallas to the No. 1 spot in the NFL in fewest yards given up (253.5 per game). The defense was tops in passing yardage (164) and fourth in rushing yardage (89.3). The addition of end Marcellus Wiley should help the pass rush; he's smart enough to give the Cowboys the flexibility to switch from their 4-3 defense to a 3-4, which they are supposedly thinking of using. Offensive coaches in their division aren't really buying the rumors about the 3-4. One coach said, "I'd love to see more 3-4 stuff from them. It can't be any tougher than their 4-3 package and I don't believe their personnel fits the 3-4." Parcells might get more mileage out of sticking with the 4-3, but letting the 3-4 rumors spread so teams prepare for that instead.
One area there is no doubt about is the secondary. Safeties Roy Williams and Darren Woodson might be the best tandem in the league, and cornerback Terence Newman is an emerging star. The question in the back four is the other corner, where Pete Hunter will take over for the departed Mario Edwards. Hunter, who has two career starts, will see lots of passes his way in 2004.
Dallas clearly is on the road back to glory. How long Parcells will stay in coaching could be a function of how fast Henson comes along and how much Julius Jones reminds him of Martin. Parcells will not lose too many games on the sidelines. He can work a clock, manage a lead and take calculated chances when he's behind, which is what makes his teams tough to beat. He rode his team hard last year and has to do it again. I wonder if guys like Bryant can stay mentally tough with Parcells for the long haul. A repeat of the same record as last year would be an improvement this year. Beating Washington twice is probably not a given in 2004 so 9-7 may be the end result.
New York
This is a team in turmoil. It is in a rebuilding phase, but since there are a number of NFL rebuilding styles, some people around New York might want to disagree with that statement.
The Giants haven't gone cold turkey. They kept Michael Strahan, Amani Toomer, Tiki Barber and Shaun Williams, but not Kerry Collins. The 49ers are in the same type of rebuild -- a new QB under center, the veteran signal-caller shown the door, and a fan base that expects a winning record no matter what is going on in the front office and on the field.
When Detroit rebuilds its franchise, people expect it to take years. When the Giants rebuild, people think a few months or maybe a year is enough, but on the streets of New York there is some strong debate about the 2004 Giants.
Before we look forward, let's look back. Key injuries and miscalculations about inexperienced offensive linemen being able to start and win were big reasons for last year's disappointing season. Jeremy Shockey missed the last seven games, and the Giants lost them all. With Shockey on the field, New York went 4-4 in the first half of the season. The Packers started 4-4 and the Eagles started 5-3, and they wound up winning their divisions.
Here's some proof the offensive line wasn't ready to play in 2003: In six games against NFC East foes, the inexperienced offensive line gave up 21 sacks and the Giants went 1-5. Barber's fumbles were a big part of the minus-16 turnover ratio, but he was held to only 88 yards on 28 carries in the two losses to Dallas. Little did anyone know the season-opening game against the Rams would be the Giants' only home victory in 2003, and the team would fail to amass 100 rushing yards in half of their games. The usually durable Collins missed the last three games. There was too much to overcome for Jim Fassel or Collins, but change was inevitable.
There are more questions about this team than any other in the league.
Will the Coughlin style work in New York?
Can drills stop Barber's fumbling problems?
Will a 3-4 defensive package be an effective change?
Will bringing in about a dozen cheap free agents really turn this franchise around or add quality depth?
Can any professional defensive unit change six of the front seven players -- and their coach -- and win right away?
Can a secondary that lost three of its four starters with serious injuries be expected to turn back some of the best passing attacks?
Can an offensive line that was ineffective in 2003 be better with no high-profile additions, the loss of Chris Bober to the Chiefs, and only the addition of second-round Chris Snee at guard to play well enough to establish a running game and protect Kurt Warner or Eli Manning any better than it did for Collins?
I do believe the Coughlin style can work, but I also felt Fassel was an effective head coach. In this salary-cap era, the best players have to buy into the head coach and his philosophy; time will tell if that happens.
Many teams are adding a 3-4 package, so it will have little effect on New York's defense. Bringing in quality, lower-priced veterans will really help the depth and pay dividends in December. As for the defensive personnel changes, Emmons (if healthy) and Barrett Green are upgrades, but it's hard to gauge the changes at middle linebacker and on the defensive line right now. The secondary should be pretty good. All reports indicate the corners, Will Allen and Will Peterson, will return to the level of play they had before their injuries.
As for the offensive line, it is still the biggest question mark heading into the season. We will know how well Coughlin likes his line by how soon Manning gets on the field. There's no reason to get their future franchise player injured or beat up before he's ready.
The Eagles are looking like a better Super Bowl contender this year than they have in the past three years. The Redskins will be improved and the Cowboys will be a contender again. This is a Giants team in a rebuilding phase. There's a call for patience and a reality check. Two steps back this season could correlate into 10 steps forward by 2006.
Philadelphia
The Eagles made the moves in the offseason to push them over the top. After coaching Owens in the Pro Bowl the past few years, the Eagles coaching staff said to itself, "Why not coach the guy all season? That way, we might avoid having to coach him in Hawaii." Add Kearse to a unit that really never replaced Hugh Douglas' production, make the tactical decision it was time to move on without Duce Staley, Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor, and the Eagles feel ready to win it all.
This might be the year Donovan McNabb won't see Andy Reid on the Pro Bowl sidelines.
They have Donovan McNabb under center -- a proven winner who can beat you with his feet as well as his arm. They had the best road record in the NFC last year (7-1). They scored 90 more points than any team in the NFC East last year. Most importantlu, they have done an excellent job of keeping their coaching staff together. Keeping Jim Johnson on defense and Brad Childress on offense gives the Eagles a great chance to take off from where they left off in 2003.
Tight end L.J. Smith has a year under his belt. With Owens on the outside, Smith will see single coverage when the Eagles go vertical. I expect Smith to jump from 27 receptions in '03 to close to 50 in '04. The 14-3 loss to Carolina in NFC title game taught the Eagles a valuable lesson about what is needed to win the big game -- a big-time receiver like Owens who can't get neutralized coming off the line of scrimmage.
On defense, the Eagles still love the "fire zone" pressure schemes. They have the athletes and the depth to pressure opposing signal-callers, but they must do a better job against the run to win it all. Last season, the Eagles scored 129 points over the last four games, an average of 32 points per game that made it easy on the defense. But when the offense struggles like it did against Carolina, the defense has to stop guys like Stephen Davis.
That leads me to a point about Kearse. He is well known as a pass-rush specialist, but to hear the Tennessee people talk, it sounds like he was a fine run defender, too. If that's true, the Eagles will be hard to beat.
Last year the Eagles lost their first two games and didn't panic. This year, the expectations are at an all-time high. Another bad start could force someone to hit the panic button. I don't think Reid will let anything get to him or his team. The first four games are against the Giants, Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago. I expect the Eagles to get out to a fast start and not look back.
Washington
This once-proud franchise has been on a steady decline over the past five years under a number of high-profile head coaches, numerous marquee free-agent acquisitions, and a young, aggressive owner who has not wavered from his burning desire to win a Super Bowl. Dan Snyder puts his money where his mouth is. For that, you can't fault him.
But 10 victories in '99 followed by eight in 2000, eight in 2001, seven in '02 and five in '03 brought Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs back to the nation's capital. Another preseason of big-time hype is under way, but this time I believe Snyder has the right formula. Let Gibbs reconstruct the franchise he once built up himself and stay out of his way until his work is done.
Of course, they added Portis in a trade with the Broncos. Portis instantly became the premier running back in the NFC East; Gibbs will get more yards from him than all the Redskins rushers combined for last year. Brunell will stabilize the offense and, for the short term, turn this team into winners. Patrick Ramsey is waiting in the wings to return to his starting job, and when he does, he'll have Portis behind him, Gibbs guiding him, a better pass-protection scheme and maturity. "Ramsey will be a star in this league sooner rather than later," is how one prominent personnel director describes him.
Washington's passing attack will feature multiple tight ends, deeper receiver routes, excellent play-action fakes and bootleg action that will buy time for things to develop. Unlike last season, Washington will not be 1-5 in the division, 2-6 on the road or 3-5 at home. Gibbs and a veteran coaching staff that boasts 240 years of NFL experience will not let it happen.
The defense has greeted its fifth coordinator in five years, which has to be confusing and stressful to the players who have been there through all of the changes. But why not change after your team finished 29th in red-zone defense, in the bottom half of forcing turnovers, gave up 372 points and ranked 24th in third-down efficiency?
I like their cornerbacks -- if Shawn Springs can stay healthy. I like the linebackers (LaVar Arrington, Marcus Washington and Barrow) especially when Arrington and Washington rush the passer. They could wind up with 18 to 20 sacks between them in 2004. Offensive coaches in the NFC East have told me that teams can run on the front four, even with the addition of Griffin. Tiki Barber, behind a below-average line, rushed 44 times for 225 yards against Washington last season.
Last year, the Redskins raided the New York Jets and signed Laveranues Coles, John Hall, Chad Morton and Randy Thomas. This past offseason they came back to New York for Giants players Griffin, Barrow and Ralph Brown.
Don't get caught up in all the preseason predictions, but know that the Redskins can make as much noise as the Cowboys, Packers, Vikings and Seahawks for a run at a wild-card spot. I think they might fall short, but they will be playing meaningful games in December if all goes well. One more year of Gibbs' decisions could bring back the glory days.
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(July 8, 2004) -- The NFC East is the premier place to be in NFL circles, like it or not. No team from this division has won the Super Bowl since the glory days of the Dallas Cowboys back in the mid-1990s, but it still draws the most attention on a national level.
For example, the Washington Redskins finished 5-11 last year, yet they will play three primetime games this season. The Cowboys had one playoff game last year (a loss to the Panthers) and came off three consecutive 5-11 seasons, but they will four primetime games.
Compare those facts to the Carolina Panthers, who took the Patriots to the wire in the Super Bowl, but will play only twice in the evening in front of America. Indianapolis and Peyton Manning will get less exposure than the Cowboys. A team like Seattle -- which won 10 last year, took Green Bay to overtime in the playoffs and scored over 400 points in the regular season -- will get one shot at football after dark.
You get the point -- the NFC East is a big deal, and you have to look no further than the four head coaches in the division.
All four head coaches have winning records in the NFL. Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells, Andy Reid and Tom Coughlin have a combined career record of 391-155-1. As a group they have an astounding playoff record of 36-20 and a Super Bowl record of 5-2.
Now it's a volatile division with Gibbs and Coughlin taking over the Redskins and New York Giants, respectively. A year ago, Parcells took over the Cowboys. A year or two from now, there will be changes again somewhere in the NFC East.
The irony in this division is that the most stable franchise is the the team with the youngest head coach, who has the fewest career victories and the highest expectations to get to Super Bowl XXXIX. The Philadelphia Eagles are built for right now. After three consecutive runner-up finishes in the NFC playoffs, Reid and his staff are tired of coaching in the Pro Bowl in Hawaii and will accept nothing less than a trip to Jacksonville in February. Parcells, Coughlin and Gibbs were brought in to prevent that from happening. It should make for a very interesting season.
In a division that never sits still, the talent on the field also is improved. Clinton Portis, Terrell Owens, Jevon Kearse, Keyshawn Johnson and Mark Brunell are only a few of the newcomers. It's also a place where a number of players switched teams inside the division, which will add to the competitive spirit. Linebackers Carlos Emmons, Mike Barrow and Dhani Jones traded in one East uniform for another, as did defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin, receiver James Thrash and cornerback Ralph Brown, among others.
Five questions that are critical for this division in 2004 are:
Can the Washington Redskins finally live up to the preseason hype that was built up in seasons past under Steve Spurrier, Marty Schottenheimer and Norv Turner?
Can the Eagles get back to the NFC championship game and win it for a change?
Is the Giants' rebuilding project going to take longer than many think? Are they in a rebuilding project or a reloading project?
Dallas clearly has an eye on the long-range future. Is 2005 when the Cowboys really expect to make their move?
Every owner in this division will spend to win. What will happen to the team(s) that falls short?
So, what's in store for this year?
Dallas
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones got his money's worth from Parcells in Year 1. He is a master of turning around a football team overnight, and he took a team that was 5-11 in 2002 and made it a 10-6 playoff team in 2003.
It's possible the 2004 Cowboys will be a better team and not improve upon their record. I never believed in strength of schedule as an issue in the NFL. Every game is a challenge; often the games you are supposed to win on paper turn out to be the hardest ones to handle. Some claim the Cowboys have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2004. Well, last year the Cowboys were 4-4 on the road, and this season they will play in Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore and Seattle, in addition to their division opponents. That's not easy.
Remember, including their playoff loss to the Panthers, the Cowboys finished the season with a 2-4 slide. They were also shut out twice during the regular season -- 16-0 to Tampa and 12-0 to New England. Drew Henson will not be ready in 2004, so Parcells might play Vinny Testaverde in one of his "hold the fort" personnel decisions if Quincy Carter continues to frustrate him with interceptions (21 in 2003).
There will be lots of pressure on rookie running back Julius Jones to replace Troy Hambrick, who was cut. Offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon has a real eye for running-back talent and years ago he stood on the table to convince Parcells to take Curtis Martin. In 1995 as a rookie with the Patriots, Martin rushed 368 times for 1,487 yards and 14 touchdowns -- and he was a third-round pick. If Hambrick got 972 yards in 275 carries last season, Jones -- a second-round pick -- should get 300 carries and over 1,000 yards.
When it's time to throw, Keyshawn Johnson will add a nice "chain-moving" target over the middle. Parcells gets the most out of Keyshawn, and his numbers should be back up around 75 receptions and eight touchdowns. Tight end Jason Whitten caught 23 passes in the last six regular-season games; we might see him catch 50 this season. If Testaverde gets significant time under center, Whitten will see the ball. Terry Glenn and Antonio Bryant round out a good receiver group. Don't think of Parcells as a coach who merely wants to run the ball and play defense. Under Parcells, Drew Bledsoe once passed over 600 times in a season and Carter threw more than 500 passes last season.
The defense is the Cowboys' pride and joy. Mike Zimmer did a great job leading Dallas to the No. 1 spot in the NFL in fewest yards given up (253.5 per game). The defense was tops in passing yardage (164) and fourth in rushing yardage (89.3). The addition of end Marcellus Wiley should help the pass rush; he's smart enough to give the Cowboys the flexibility to switch from their 4-3 defense to a 3-4, which they are supposedly thinking of using. Offensive coaches in their division aren't really buying the rumors about the 3-4. One coach said, "I'd love to see more 3-4 stuff from them. It can't be any tougher than their 4-3 package and I don't believe their personnel fits the 3-4." Parcells might get more mileage out of sticking with the 4-3, but letting the 3-4 rumors spread so teams prepare for that instead.
One area there is no doubt about is the secondary. Safeties Roy Williams and Darren Woodson might be the best tandem in the league, and cornerback Terence Newman is an emerging star. The question in the back four is the other corner, where Pete Hunter will take over for the departed Mario Edwards. Hunter, who has two career starts, will see lots of passes his way in 2004.
Dallas clearly is on the road back to glory. How long Parcells will stay in coaching could be a function of how fast Henson comes along and how much Julius Jones reminds him of Martin. Parcells will not lose too many games on the sidelines. He can work a clock, manage a lead and take calculated chances when he's behind, which is what makes his teams tough to beat. He rode his team hard last year and has to do it again. I wonder if guys like Bryant can stay mentally tough with Parcells for the long haul. A repeat of the same record as last year would be an improvement this year. Beating Washington twice is probably not a given in 2004 so 9-7 may be the end result.
New York
This is a team in turmoil. It is in a rebuilding phase, but since there are a number of NFL rebuilding styles, some people around New York might want to disagree with that statement.
The Giants haven't gone cold turkey. They kept Michael Strahan, Amani Toomer, Tiki Barber and Shaun Williams, but not Kerry Collins. The 49ers are in the same type of rebuild -- a new QB under center, the veteran signal-caller shown the door, and a fan base that expects a winning record no matter what is going on in the front office and on the field.
When Detroit rebuilds its franchise, people expect it to take years. When the Giants rebuild, people think a few months or maybe a year is enough, but on the streets of New York there is some strong debate about the 2004 Giants.
Before we look forward, let's look back. Key injuries and miscalculations about inexperienced offensive linemen being able to start and win were big reasons for last year's disappointing season. Jeremy Shockey missed the last seven games, and the Giants lost them all. With Shockey on the field, New York went 4-4 in the first half of the season. The Packers started 4-4 and the Eagles started 5-3, and they wound up winning their divisions.
Here's some proof the offensive line wasn't ready to play in 2003: In six games against NFC East foes, the inexperienced offensive line gave up 21 sacks and the Giants went 1-5. Barber's fumbles were a big part of the minus-16 turnover ratio, but he was held to only 88 yards on 28 carries in the two losses to Dallas. Little did anyone know the season-opening game against the Rams would be the Giants' only home victory in 2003, and the team would fail to amass 100 rushing yards in half of their games. The usually durable Collins missed the last three games. There was too much to overcome for Jim Fassel or Collins, but change was inevitable.
There are more questions about this team than any other in the league.
Will the Coughlin style work in New York?
Can drills stop Barber's fumbling problems?
Will a 3-4 defensive package be an effective change?
Will bringing in about a dozen cheap free agents really turn this franchise around or add quality depth?
Can any professional defensive unit change six of the front seven players -- and their coach -- and win right away?
Can a secondary that lost three of its four starters with serious injuries be expected to turn back some of the best passing attacks?
Can an offensive line that was ineffective in 2003 be better with no high-profile additions, the loss of Chris Bober to the Chiefs, and only the addition of second-round Chris Snee at guard to play well enough to establish a running game and protect Kurt Warner or Eli Manning any better than it did for Collins?
I do believe the Coughlin style can work, but I also felt Fassel was an effective head coach. In this salary-cap era, the best players have to buy into the head coach and his philosophy; time will tell if that happens.
Many teams are adding a 3-4 package, so it will have little effect on New York's defense. Bringing in quality, lower-priced veterans will really help the depth and pay dividends in December. As for the defensive personnel changes, Emmons (if healthy) and Barrett Green are upgrades, but it's hard to gauge the changes at middle linebacker and on the defensive line right now. The secondary should be pretty good. All reports indicate the corners, Will Allen and Will Peterson, will return to the level of play they had before their injuries.
As for the offensive line, it is still the biggest question mark heading into the season. We will know how well Coughlin likes his line by how soon Manning gets on the field. There's no reason to get their future franchise player injured or beat up before he's ready.
The Eagles are looking like a better Super Bowl contender this year than they have in the past three years. The Redskins will be improved and the Cowboys will be a contender again. This is a Giants team in a rebuilding phase. There's a call for patience and a reality check. Two steps back this season could correlate into 10 steps forward by 2006.
Philadelphia
The Eagles made the moves in the offseason to push them over the top. After coaching Owens in the Pro Bowl the past few years, the Eagles coaching staff said to itself, "Why not coach the guy all season? That way, we might avoid having to coach him in Hawaii." Add Kearse to a unit that really never replaced Hugh Douglas' production, make the tactical decision it was time to move on without Duce Staley, Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor, and the Eagles feel ready to win it all.
This might be the year Donovan McNabb won't see Andy Reid on the Pro Bowl sidelines.
They have Donovan McNabb under center -- a proven winner who can beat you with his feet as well as his arm. They had the best road record in the NFC last year (7-1). They scored 90 more points than any team in the NFC East last year. Most importantlu, they have done an excellent job of keeping their coaching staff together. Keeping Jim Johnson on defense and Brad Childress on offense gives the Eagles a great chance to take off from where they left off in 2003.
Tight end L.J. Smith has a year under his belt. With Owens on the outside, Smith will see single coverage when the Eagles go vertical. I expect Smith to jump from 27 receptions in '03 to close to 50 in '04. The 14-3 loss to Carolina in NFC title game taught the Eagles a valuable lesson about what is needed to win the big game -- a big-time receiver like Owens who can't get neutralized coming off the line of scrimmage.
On defense, the Eagles still love the "fire zone" pressure schemes. They have the athletes and the depth to pressure opposing signal-callers, but they must do a better job against the run to win it all. Last season, the Eagles scored 129 points over the last four games, an average of 32 points per game that made it easy on the defense. But when the offense struggles like it did against Carolina, the defense has to stop guys like Stephen Davis.
That leads me to a point about Kearse. He is well known as a pass-rush specialist, but to hear the Tennessee people talk, it sounds like he was a fine run defender, too. If that's true, the Eagles will be hard to beat.
Last year the Eagles lost their first two games and didn't panic. This year, the expectations are at an all-time high. Another bad start could force someone to hit the panic button. I don't think Reid will let anything get to him or his team. The first four games are against the Giants, Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago. I expect the Eagles to get out to a fast start and not look back.
Washington
This once-proud franchise has been on a steady decline over the past five years under a number of high-profile head coaches, numerous marquee free-agent acquisitions, and a young, aggressive owner who has not wavered from his burning desire to win a Super Bowl. Dan Snyder puts his money where his mouth is. For that, you can't fault him.
But 10 victories in '99 followed by eight in 2000, eight in 2001, seven in '02 and five in '03 brought Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs back to the nation's capital. Another preseason of big-time hype is under way, but this time I believe Snyder has the right formula. Let Gibbs reconstruct the franchise he once built up himself and stay out of his way until his work is done.
Of course, they added Portis in a trade with the Broncos. Portis instantly became the premier running back in the NFC East; Gibbs will get more yards from him than all the Redskins rushers combined for last year. Brunell will stabilize the offense and, for the short term, turn this team into winners. Patrick Ramsey is waiting in the wings to return to his starting job, and when he does, he'll have Portis behind him, Gibbs guiding him, a better pass-protection scheme and maturity. "Ramsey will be a star in this league sooner rather than later," is how one prominent personnel director describes him.
Washington's passing attack will feature multiple tight ends, deeper receiver routes, excellent play-action fakes and bootleg action that will buy time for things to develop. Unlike last season, Washington will not be 1-5 in the division, 2-6 on the road or 3-5 at home. Gibbs and a veteran coaching staff that boasts 240 years of NFL experience will not let it happen.
The defense has greeted its fifth coordinator in five years, which has to be confusing and stressful to the players who have been there through all of the changes. But why not change after your team finished 29th in red-zone defense, in the bottom half of forcing turnovers, gave up 372 points and ranked 24th in third-down efficiency?
I like their cornerbacks -- if Shawn Springs can stay healthy. I like the linebackers (LaVar Arrington, Marcus Washington and Barrow) especially when Arrington and Washington rush the passer. They could wind up with 18 to 20 sacks between them in 2004. Offensive coaches in the NFC East have told me that teams can run on the front four, even with the addition of Griffin. Tiki Barber, behind a below-average line, rushed 44 times for 225 yards against Washington last season.
Last year, the Redskins raided the New York Jets and signed Laveranues Coles, John Hall, Chad Morton and Randy Thomas. This past offseason they came back to New York for Giants players Griffin, Barrow and Ralph Brown.
Don't get caught up in all the preseason predictions, but know that the Redskins can make as much noise as the Cowboys, Packers, Vikings and Seahawks for a run at a wild-card spot. I think they might fall short, but they will be playing meaningful games in December if all goes well. One more year of Gibbs' decisions could bring back the glory days.