Is Emmitt's rushing record still in jeopardy?

[TruBlueCowboy]

There was talk of Curtis Martin breaking Emmitt's record after Martin had the most yards ever for a running back his age in 2004, but everything I read or watch in 2005, now has Curtis Martin with retirement or reduced duties.

Looking at some of the vets who can compete with Emmitt:

EMMITT 18,355

Curtis Martin 14,101.... After this season, I can't see Martin having three 1,300 yard seasons in a row, which is what he will need MINIMUM to beat Emmitt.

Jerome Bettis 13,662.... Probably retired next year.

Marshall Faulk 12,279.... Probably retiring soon.

Corey Dillon 10,429.... Had a slow season this year, highly doubtful he can even reach 15,000.

Edgerrin James 9,226.... He turns 28 this year. He can have 5 seasons of 1,500 yards and he'll still be over a thousand yards away.

Tiki Barber 8,786.... Turns 30 this year. Nope.

Fred Taylor 8,367.... Turns 29 this year. Injury prone. Ain't gonna happen.

Warrick Dunn 8,321.... Turns 30, already talk of Ricky Wiliams going to Falcons. Nada here.

Priest Holmes 8,035.... Retiring next year.

Stephen Davis 7,875.... Probably retiring.

Shaun Alexander 7,817..... Here's an intriguing candidate. Only problem is he turns 29 this year. He has to have six seasons of comparable yards as his first six and he'll be 34, and STILL over 2,000 yards away. Very doubtful.

Ahman Green 7,432.... Similar situation as Alexander and lost a step lately.

LaDainian Tomlinson 7,363.... He was the favorite pick in earlier Emmitt record breaking discussions and still on a decent pace. He'll be 32 after he has 5 more seasons of approx 1400 yards a season. And he'll still only have a little under 15,000 yards.

Ricky Williams 7,097... Too many bong hits.

Antowain Smith 6,881.... Retiring soon.

As far as guys who don't have over 6,000 yards yet, I'll give you someone who maybe has a chance.

Clinton Portis 5,930..... He turns 25 in 2006. Because he started so young in the NFL, he's a big threat if he stays healthy. If he had six seasons of 1,300 yards minimum (he usually averages 1,500 yards) up til age 30, he'd be near 14,000 yards.

Still... none of the longtimers looks like legit threats except for Edgerrin James, with only guys Portis and LT as long-term worries, but they still have to run for several, several years before they even become a threat.

Emmitt's record is going to go down as one of the most impressive sports records ever. It's just incredible how long his body took that beating and still managed to play at such high levels.

[TonyS]

The crazy thing about Emmitt is that he could've kept going physically. He basically retired because he didn't want to move his family to another city at this point in his career.

Behind a good O-line, Emmitt could still flash some moves and make some yards. He was incredible.

[Tricked]

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/396164

Mr Larry Johson, in my opinion, is going to be one of the best RBs in the league.. he didn't even start all year and still ended up with almost 1800 yards, he just does amazing things when he has the football in his hands, and he's only 26.. learning behind priest holmes has helped him quite a bit, he's definitely one i've got my eye on...

but don't worry, records were meant to be broken, while emmitts record was a tremendous accomplishment, someone out there will work just as hard as he did to get to it, and will likely succeed, in time

[TruBlueCowboy]

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/396164

Mr Larry Johson, in my opinion, is going to be one of the best RBs in the league.. he didn't even start all year and still ended up with almost 1800 yards, he just does amazing things when he has the football in his hands, and he's only 26.. learning behind priest holmes has helped him quite a bit, he's definitely one i've got my eye on...

but don't worry, records were meant to be broken, while emmitts record was a tremendous accomplishment, someone out there will work just as hard as he did to get to it, and will likely succeed, in time

Agree that he's impressive, but LJ started too late. Emmitt skipped a year of college. You need at least 10 years to break this record so LJ is already well behind. Also, even if he was younger, while KC has a damn good offensive line, they have several older vets on that line, so you gotta figure his yards are going to go down soon.

[JohnsKey19]

Lengevity and health have as much to do with the all-time rushing record as the RB's greatness or talent as a runner. It's really impossible to predict who's a threat particularly when the player is so young and has so much yardage to make up, like a Portis or Tomlinson.

An "off year" or even a few minor 4-6 week type injuries, completely normal for a RB, would essentially kill any chances of even reaching 15,000 total yards. Guys like Emmitt and Martin are exceptions. Example...Marshall Faulk just a few seasons ago appeared to be on the fast track to break the record. Due to age, injuries and other factors, he can barely get on the field now and still has 6000 yds to go.


But I do agree with you that Portis and Tomlinson certainly are on pace to challenge Emmitt. But let's see where they are at age 30-31. How close are they then? How effective are they as runners? Are they still feature RBs getting 20-25 attempts/game? And realistically, how much gas do they have left in the tank? We won't know til we get to that point.

[Yeagermeister]

To me the only one with a shot is LT if he can stay healthy.

[TonyS]

at 33 years old next season, coming off of an injury and needing 3 more seasons of at least 1,400 yards, it doesn't look good for CMart.

I'd love to see Emmitt hold the record for 10-15 more years, but eventually someone will pass it. All records will, one day, be broken.

[TruBlueCowboy]

Lengevity and health have as much to do with the all-time rushing record as the RB's greatness or talent as a runner. It's really impossible to predict who's a threat particularly when the player is so young and has so much yardage to make up, like a Portis or Tomlinson.

An "off year" or even a few minor 4-6 week type injuries, completely normal for a RB, would essentially kill any chances of even reaching 15,000 total yards. Guys like Emmitt and Martin are exceptions. Example...Marshall Faulk just a few seasons ago appeared to be on the fast track to break the record. Due to age, injuries and other factors, he can barely get on the field now and still has 6000 yds to go.


But I do agree with you that Portis and Tomlinson certainly are on pace to challenge Emmitt. But let's see where they are at age 30-31. How close are they then? How effective are they as runners? Are they still feature RBs getting 20-25 attempts/game? And realistically, how much gas do they have left in the tank? We won't know til we get to that point.

Plus, another thing is I don't think coaches really give their backs as much of a workload as they used to. A lot more coaches these days seem to be happy with a significant workload given to the backup running back, or goal line, 3rd down specialists. Emmitt played at the end of an era.

[juice28]

To me the only one with a shot is LT if he can stay healthy.

That's the big "IF" that everyone keeps overlooking. Remember Emmitt playing through injury. I'm not sure anyone else will do the same these days. They don't make runningbacks like they used to.

[joseephuss]

Martin looks like he won't break it. The Jets are bad and that will hamper him as well as his injuries.

Portis is in good early position. He is very young and productive. The one thing to watch with him is long term durability. He has been taking a pounding. It may not seem to effect him now, but sometimes that stuff seems to just take a toll on a player later down the line. Earl Campbell looked great early in his career and then bam, all that punishment just caught up with him. Portis has shown a few minor signs that he won't be a 12 year or longer back in my opinion. That isn't a criticism of Portis who is a special running back. It is just amazing when any back can be productive for that many years. Only a few have done it.

LT has shown the same kind of minor injuries that Portis has done. He also was a little older than Emmitt when he started his career.

[TruBlueCowboy]

Martin looks like he won't break it. The Jets are bad and that will hamper him as well as his injuries.

Portis is in good early position. He is very young and productive. The one thing to watch with him is long term durability. He has been taking a pounding. It may not seem to effect him now, but sometimes that stuff seems to just take a toll on a player later down the line. Earl Campbell looked great early in his career and then bam, all that punishment just caught up with him. Portis has shown a few minor signs that he won't be a 12 year or longer back in my opinion. That isn't a criticism of Portis who is a special running back. It is just amazing when any back can be productive for that many years. Only a few have done it.

LT has shown the same kind of minor injuries that Portis has done. He also was a little older than Emmitt when he started his career.


I think you're right on with your assessment of Portis. Could be the Skins hater in me, but he has had some injury question marks already, and he doesn't seem like the kind of guy who can stand the direct pounding year after year.

[aznhalf]

CP depends on his speed too much to remain productive later in his career. If he loses a couple steps I don't think he has the vision or power to stay on a record pace.

I think LT might have a shot, depending on his health and toughness.

Also backs on winning teams have more yards, so there performance hinges on how well their teams perform. You're not running a lot when you're always playing from behind.

[TruBlueCowboy]

CP depends on his speed too much to remain productive later in his career. If he loses a couple steps I don't think he has the vision or power to stay on a record pace.

I think LT might have a shot, depending on his health and toughness.

Also backs on winning teams have more yards, so there performance hinges on how well their teams perform. You're not running a lot when you're always playing from behind.

That's why I think Edgerrin James is a threat. As long as Manning, Freeney, and some of the other mainstays stick around, he'll get his yards.

[joseephuss]

That's why I think Edgerrin James is a threat. As long as Manning, Freeney, and some of the other mainstays stick around, he'll get his yards.

What is James' contract status? How much longer will he be a Colt?

[TruBlueCowboy]

What is James' contract status? How much longer will he be a Colt?

I believe he's a free-agent this year. Another obstacle. Go Emmitt!! ;)

[Duane]

Great read TBC, reading it was a nice break between the Excel spreadsheets this morning.

[REDVOLUTION]

The crazy thing about Emmitt is that he could've kept going physically. He basically retired because he didn't want to move his family to another city at this point in his career.

Behind a good O-line, Emmitt could still flash some moves and make some yards. He was incredible.

Yeah I really wanted Emmitt to go to 20,000 yards. He mentioned somewhere along the line.... would have been sweet - Emmitt20K

[Sarge]

at 33 years old next season, coming off of an injury and needing 3 more seasons of at least 1,400 yards, it doesn't look good for CMart.

I'd love to see Emmitt hold the record for 10-15 more years, but eventually someone will pass it. All records will, one day, be broken.

I don't know if some of Jerry Rices' records will ever be broken.

[TheSkaven]

Curtis Martin will retire this off-season, almost certainly. Emmitt's record is safe for at least another decade, if not more. It takes a unique back to break that record, not only a great running back but remaining injury free and playing behind a good offensive line.

Here's hoping when that record does eventually fall, the new record holder is another Cowboy.

[AdamJT13]

As I've been saying for several years, the ONLY guy anywhere close to Emmitt's yardage at the same age is Clinton Portis, who is 231 yards ahead of Emmitt at the same age. Now all he has to do is stay as productive as Emmitt for as long as Emmitt did -- he's still 12,425 yards away (which is more than what Jim Brown's record was and more than Marshall Faulk's career total).

Everyone else is WAY behind Emmitt at the same age. Tomlinson, for example, is 1,664 yards behind what Emmitt had at the same age. The chances of him breaking the record are slim to none.

[big dog cowboy]

To me the only one with a shot is LT if he can stay healthy.
LJ isn't a shifty enough RB to avoid some big hits (Emmitt B. Sanders types.) He prefers to run over people (E. Campbell types.) Those kind of RB's just don't last as long.

[Verdict]

To me the only one with a shot is LT if he can stay healthy.

LT looks like the only real challenger at this point. The problem with Tomlinson is he gets a lot of yards by catching the ball rather than having it handed to him, so his "rushing" yards suffer a bit as a result. I'm thinking L.T. could have more total yards than E. Smith and still be a bit shy of his record.

[Verdict]

As I've been saying for several years, the ONLY guy anywhere close to Emmitt's yardage at the same age is Clinton Portis, who is 231 yards ahead of Emmitt at the same age. Now all he has to do is stay as productive as Emmitt for as long as Emmitt did -- he's still 12,425 yards away (which is more than what Jim Brown's record was and more than Marshall Faulk's career total).

Everyone else is WAY behind Emmitt at the same age. Tomlinson, for example, is 1,664 yards behind what Emmitt had at the same age. The chances of him breaking the record are slim to none.

You make a very good point, as usual, which is the current backs are behind Emmitt's pace at the same age. However, I think if Emmitts record falls, it isnt going to be because a running back is ahead of him or behind him at a certain point in his career it will be more of a longevity record (which, granted, I guess would be kinda what your stat implies). I think the guy who beats Emmitt's record will be someone who is more productive than Emmitt late in his career and has a long career. This race is a true marathon, L.T. at this point in his career would be considered in a sprint.

[TruBlueCowboy]

You make a very good point, as usual, which is the current backs are behind Emmitt's pace at the same age. However, I think if Emmitts record falls, it isnt going to be because a running back is ahead of him or behind him at a certain point in his career it will be more of a longevity record (which, granted, I guess would be kinda what your stat implies). I think the guy who beats Emmitt's record will be someone who is more productive than Emmitt late in his career and has a long career. This race is a true marathon, L.T. at this point in his career would be considered in a sprint.

I think you also have to land on the right team at an older age. One could argue that Emmitt probably should have had reduced duties in some of his later years, but Jerry wasn't going to see it happen and not like we had great success in drafting replacements for the Triplets after Jimmy left. Then he landed on a Cards team with poor running back depth and injuries that launched him into more starting time.

[jesusphreak]

That's the thing...

In the modern NFL...backs share the load so much. Its just not like it was 10 years ago or so. You see how someone like Priest Holmes who seemed like an amazing back can literally be uprooted overnight by Larry Johnson and such.

Good backs just aren't terribly difficult to find, and teams are less likely to stick with an older back when they can have a youngster in there.

[TruBlueCowboy]

I also wanted to add that I think Emmitt is one of those guys that is going to get a lot more respect as time goes on. Right now, when you have the top 10 running backs of all-time polls, there are still some jackbleeps that leave him off, but as time goes on, and no one comes close to beating that record, people will give him his due, especially when they see how many years he was top 10 in rushing in the NFL.

[jesusphreak]

Oh, and yes, I consider Portis the only real challenger. Problem with Portis is this: he's not as shifty as Emmitt, and he plays on the 2005 Washington Redskins...not the Dallas Cowboys of the 1990s.

I mean that literally. The Cowboys had at least decent teams all the way until the end of the 90s, but the likelyhood of the Redskins having GREAT teams for 4 years and then having good teams for another 5 is next to impossible. I just think there is too much turmoil in that organization for him to keep on grinding it out.

[jesusphreak]

Clinton Portis 5,930..... He turns 25 in 2006. Because he started so young in the NFL, he's a big threat if he stays healthy. If he had six seasons of 1,300 yards minimum (he usually averages 1,500 yards) up til age 30, he'd be near 14,000 yards.


Damn...even if he has 6 seasons of 1300 yards he'd still have more than 4,000 yards to go at age 30?

That's so damn hard. One injury screws his chances.

[AdamJT13]

You make a very good point, as usual, which is the current backs are behind Emmitt's pace at the same age. However, I think if Emmitts record falls, it isnt going to be because a running back is ahead of him or behind him at a certain point in his career it will be more of a longevity record (which, granted, I guess would be kinda what your stat implies). I think the guy who beats Emmitt's record will be someone who is more productive than Emmitt late in his career and has a long career. This race is a true marathon, L.T. at this point in his career would be considered in a sprint.

If Tomlinson can't even keep up with Emmitt when he's in his prime, the chances of him surpassing Emmitt's late-career yardage by several thousand yards is virtually nil. Nobody has come close to sustaining productivity for as long as Emmitt did, and for someone to match it will be extremely difficult by itself. Tomlinson would not only have to match it, he'd have to blow it away. Like I said, his chances are slim to none.

[joseephuss]

I don't know if some of Jerry Rices' records will ever be broken.

Those records do seem much safer.

[Duane]

Those records do seem much safer.
True, Rice was a freak.

[AdamJT13]

Those records do seem much safer.

Torry Holt has far more catches (619 to 526) and more yards (9,487 to 9,072) than Rice did at the same age, but he would need a good 10 or 11 more productive seasons to break Rice's records. He needs 930 catches and 13,408 yards.

[CanadianCowboysFan]

Holt does have one advantage over Rice, Jerry actually allowed himself to be hit whereas Hotl always falls to the ground so that he doesn't get hit. That way he is less likely to get injured so he has a shot ;)

[odog422]

good thread.

i do believe portis is the only one with a shot. but i dont see him staying healthy, or being featured long enough to do it. one thing in his favor is his current coach prefers the grind-it-out approach so he'll get his touches.

Here's an interesting thought.... im too lazy to figure it out, but can u imagine what Emmitt's total rushing yardage was, including all the playoff games? That number has to be well over 20,000. Which makes his regular season productivity all the more amazing, considering how long his seasons were.

[AdamJT13]

Here's an interesting thought.... im too lazy to figure it out, but can u imagine what Emmitt's total rushing yardage was, including all the playoff games? That number has to be well over 20,000.

It was 19,941. In 17 career playoff games, he had 1,586 yards rushing, which appears to be the NFL playoff record.

[Hiero]

I think LT may be the only one playing with a shot. shaun wont last long enough, and neither will Clinton. LT racks up big yards but usually knows like Emmitt how to duck the big hit.

[Thick 'N Hearty]

Alexander might have a decent shot. He didn't start his first year in the league. I'm not sure about his second.

[odog422]

It was 19,941. In 17 career playoff games, he had 1,586 yards rushing, which appears to be the NFL playoff record.

thats like another season. a very very good one at that. thanks adam, i figured youd have the answer...

[AdamJT13]

Alexander might have a decent shot. He didn't start his first year in the league. I'm not sure about his second.

Alexander has no shot. He's already 28, and he has only 7,817 yards. He could have seven straight 1,500-yard seasons, and he'd still be short of Emmitt's record, and he'd be 36 years old when the next season begins.

[Verdict]

If Tomlinson can't even keep up with Emmitt when he's in his prime, the chances of him surpassing Emmitt's late-career yardage by several thousand yards is virtually nil. Nobody has come close to sustaining productivity for as long as Emmitt did, and for someone to match it will be extremely difficult by itself. Tomlinson would not only have to match it, he'd have to blow it away. Like I said, his chances are slim to none.

I disagree with the bolded portion of your post for the reasons set forth below:

Emmitt had the benefit of playing behind an outstanding offensive line for a pretty lengthy period. Emmitt's production tailed off pretty sharply toward the end of his career. Heck it seemed like it took forever for him to get the record with us feeding him the ball with the intention of getting him the record.

I do not see it very likely that a player early in his career is going to have the benefit Emmitt had of playing behind a line like Emmitt had early in his career. Emmitt's record is likely only going to be vulnerable if a player plays longer than Emmitt did or is more productive at the end of his career than Emmitt was. If L.T. continues to fall behind Emmitt each year, then I would concede his chances of reaching the record drop.

If L.T. stays healthy and continues to play for a decent team, behind a decent line, he will break Emmitt's record, because he has much better skills than Emmitt had, namely speed. L.T. has the ability to eat up bigger chunks of yards per carry than Emmitt due to his speed. Will he or won't he, who knows, but like I said before this record is a record of longevity. If L.T. stays healthy it is within his reach.

[AdamJT13]

I disagree with the bolded portion of your post for the reasons set forth below:

Emmitt had the benefit of playing behind an outstanding offensive line for a pretty lengthy period. Emmitt's production tailed off pretty sharply toward the end of his career. Heck it seemed like it took forever for him to get the record with us feeding him the ball with the intention of getting him the record.

I do not see it very likely that a player early in his career is going to have the benefit Emmitt had of playing behind a line like Emmitt had early in his career. Emmitt's record is likely only going to be vulnerable if a player plays longer than Emmitt did or is more productive at the end of his career than Emmitt was. If L.T. continues to fall behind Emmitt each year, then I would concede his chances of reaching the record drop.

If L.T. stays healthy and continues to play for a decent team, behind a decent line, he will break Emmitt's record, because he has much better skills than Emmitt had, namely speed. L.T. has the ability to eat up bigger chunks of yards per carry than Emmitt due to his speed. Will he or won't he, who knows, but like I said before this record is a record of longevity. If L.T. stays healthy it is within his reach.

I didn't miss your point, I just think you're underestimating how far behind Tomlinson is and how difficult it will be for him to make up those yards -- especially when he loses ground on Emmitt almost every season. Emmitt had more yards than Tomlinson at every age but age 24, when Emmitt sat out the first two games and barely played in the third. Tomlinson played all 16 games but still beat Emmitt by only 159 yards.

Even if Tomlinson is just as productive over the next five seasons as he was for his first five seasons (which is highly unlikely), he'll STILL be 3,629 yards short when he turns 32. And no career feature back has rushed for more than Emmitt's 3,189 yards after age 32. Nobody else even has 2,000.

[Verdict]

I didn't miss your point, I just think you're underestimating how far behind Tomlinson is and how difficult it will be for him to make up those yards -- especially when he loses ground on Emmitt almost every season. Emmitt had more yards than Tomlinson at every age but age 24, when Emmitt sat out the first two games and barely played in the third. Tomlinson played all 16 games but still beat Emmitt by only 159 yards.

Even if Tomlinson is just as productive over the next five seasons as he was for his first five seasons (which is highly unlikely), he'll STILL be 3,629 yards short when he turns 32. And no career feature back has rushed for more than Emmitt's 3,189 yards after age 32. Nobody else even has 2,000.

I'm assuming the bolded portion of your reply is looking back as opposed to in the future. I realize it will be difficult for any back to break Emmitt's record, including L.T. I think the thing that really helped Emmitt was that the Cowboys arguably played Emmitt with the sole purpose of breaking the record when he probably should have been a backup at that point in his career. This record could last for quite a while. Like all records, it wil probably fall, but a back will have to be very good, healthy and lucky to break it.

Think about this. If L.T. were to become a free agent and come to a team like the Parcells-coached Cowboys he might get 2000 yards a year every year. I realize it is highly unlikely that he gets away from S.D. but you get the drift.

[joseephuss]

I'm assuming the bolded portion of your reply is looking back as opposed to in the future. I realize it will be difficult for any back to break Emmitt's record, including L.T. I think the thing that really helped Emmitt was that the Cowboys arguably played Emmitt with the sole purpose of breaking the record when he probably should have been a backup at that point in his career. This record could last for quite a while. Like all records, it wil probably fall, but a back will have to be very good, healthy and lucky to break it.

Think about this. If L.T. were to become a free agent and come to a team like the Parcells-coached Cowboys he might get 2000 yards a year every year. I realize it is highly unlikely that he gets away from S.D. but you get the drift.

LT already plays for a Parcells type coach. Marty is a conservative, run the ball type coach.

You are right, a back has to be very good, healthy and lucky to break it. LT is very good, but he has shown that he gets little injuries every season. As he gets older(29-31), he will probably still have these type of injuries.

[phildominator]

The rushing record is definitely the cream of the crop as far as RB records go - and Emmitt owns it.

However, I feel the game has shifted towards the dual threat RB. Hell, triple threat if you consider Tomlinson as a passing threat (in jest). Look at the top RBs of today - Barber, Martin, Alexander, Holmes, Faulk and Larry Johnson. Compare that to Okoye's and Walter Payton's of the past.

They're the standard as opposed to the exception (Roger Craig, Thurman Thomas and the 3rd down specialists like Dave Meggett and Ronnie Harmon).

For the statisticians on this site, who are the top five running backs all-time combined rushing and receiving? Where does Emmitt Smith fall on this list?

[joseephuss]

The rushing record is definitely the cream of the crop as far as RB records go - and Emmitt owns it.

However, I feel the game has shifted towards the dual threat RB. Hell, triple threat if you consider Tomlinson as a passing threat (in jest). Look at the top RBs of today - Barber, Martin, Alexander, Holmes, Faulk and Larry Johnson. Compare that to Okoye's and Walter Payton's of the past.

They're the standard as opposed to the exception (Roger Craig, Thurman Thomas and the 3rd down specialists like Dave Meggett and Ronnie Harmon).

For the statisticians on this site, who are the top five running backs all-time combined rushing and receiving? Where does Emmitt Smith fall on this list?

Out of the top ten for most yards from the line of scrimmage(rushing and receiving), only one is not a running back.
1. J Rice 23540
2. E Smith 21579
3. W Payton 21264
4. *M Faulk 19154
5. B Sanders 18190
6. M Allen 17654
7. *C Martin 17430
8. T Thomas 16532
9. T Dorsett 16293
10. E Dickerson 15396

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/misc/yfs.htm

[phildominator]

Out of the top ten for most yards from the line of scrimmage(rushing and receiving), only one is not a running back.
1. J Rice 23540
2. E Smith 21579
3. W Payton 21264
4. *M Faulk 19154
5. B Sanders 18190
6. M Allen 17654
7. *C Martin 17430
8. T Thomas 16532
9. T Dorsett 16293
10. E Dickerson 15396

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/misc/yfs.htm

We've been discussing players chasing Emmitt's rushing record, but I wonder who has a realistic chance at breaking the 'yards from scrimmage' record.

I think LaDanian has had three 2,000+ yards seasons. He's probably got a better chance at this record than Emmitt's rushing-only record.