Troy Aikman Efficiency Ratings - Week 2

[TruBlueCowboy]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/7704712

NFL FEATURES
Aikman Efficiency Ratings: Week 2
By Troy Aikman
Special to NFL.com
http://images.nfl.com/images/author/7201.jpg

(Sept. 21, 2004) -- Perfect in the red zone, tied for the league's adjusted scoring lead, with only one turnover in two games and strong in all other categories, the Philadelphia Eagles lead the Aikman Offensive Efficiency Ratings through two weeks of the NFL season despite ranking only sixth in total yards. Dallas, the league's total yards leader, ranks only 18th due to six turnovers in two games and mediocre performance in scoring points overall and scoring in the red zone.

Tampa Bay is last in the Aikman Ratings for offense -- and the two teams that have faced the Bucs rank 1-2 in the latest Aikman Efficiency Ratings for defense. Time will tell whether it is the defensive strengths of Washington and Seattle or Tampa Bay's offensive woes that have contributed to this early result. Still, the Buccaneers are 0-2 with the league's No. 3 defense. Detroit's seven takeaways and strong red-zone defense to date have helped the Lions to fifth place in the Aikman Ratings despite ranking 25th in yards allowed.

The Eagles, like the Lions, are another team with a substantially better Aikman Defensive Rating than the NFL yards allowed ranking after successfully protecting a pair of leads while recording victories, despite yielding yards. Houston and St. Louis, 31 and 32 in this week's Aikman Defensive Ratings, have forced one turnover between them.

Aikman Offensive Efficiency Ratings
Aikman NFL Teams AER
1 6 Philadelphia 102.89
2 4 New York Jets 98.16
3 3 Indianapolis 91.20
4 2 Minnesota 90.67
5 16 Atlanta 89.35
6 14 San Diego 89.16
7 13 Carolina 88.19
8 5 New England 83.66
9 20 Kansas City 81.99
10 12 Green Bay 80.31
11 21 Seattle 80.07
12 8 San Francisco 78.54
13 9 St. Louis 77.41
14 25 Detroit 77.26
15 24 Pittsburgh 76.71
16 23 Cincinnati 73.97
17 7 Denver 72.71
18 1 Dallas 72.20
19 17 Tennessee 68.43
20 10 Houston 67.97
21 31 Arizona 67.86
22 22 New Orleans 67.50
23 26 Baltimore 67.44
24 15 Chicago 66.29
25 11 New York Giants 63.85
26 29 Cleveland 63.18
27 28 Buffalo 60.89
28 18 Oakland 60.53
29 32 Jacksonville 58.44
30 19 Washington 58.34
31 27 Miami 54.41
32 30 Tampa Bay 49.18

Aikman Defensive Efficiency Ratings
Aikman NFL Teams AER
1 1 Washington 100.10
2 8 Seattle 99.13
3 3 Tampa Bay 92.03
4 2 Miami 90.31
5 25 Detroit 89.23
6 6 Buffalo 87.86
7 12 Jacksonville 87.65
8 20 Chicago 86.54
9 23 Cleveland 82.98
10 9 Baltimore 80.52
11 14 New England 78.72
12 31 Philadelphia 77.95
13 18 Atlanta 77.95
14 15 Pittsburgh 77.49
15 19 Cincinnati 76.28
16 5 Denver 75.05
17 13 Green Bay 74.60
18 4 Oakland 74.12
19 32 Arizona 71.05
20 26 Minnesota 70.17
21 7 San Francisco 68.94
22 28 New York Giants 68.69
23 30 Indianapolis 67.97
24 17 Tennessee 66.13
25 15 Dallas 65.81
26 22 New York Jets 65.19
27 24 San Diego 65.05
28 9 Carolina 64.29
29 29 New Orleans 63.93
30 27 Kansas City 62.50
31 21 St. Louis 60.71
32 11 Houston 54.92

[Avery]

I like this ratings system he has. Much better (and more accurate) than simply naming who gave up the less yards and points as #1.

[Nukeman]

I like this ratings system he has. Much better (and more accurate) than simply naming who gave up the less yards and points as #1.

I can't really disagree with you but he'd have a better chance of selling me on it if we were ranked a little higher. Maybe just for old time's sake.

Sadly, he's probably about right...

[sunbum]

Troy has published questions/suggestions in how various ratings are performed, including the famous QB rating, before. Is this Ofense & Dfens rating of his something new? I'm curous as to the measurement criteria behind it. He had good points/input on the QB rating thing so i'm figuring he covered all the bases with his own yard stick.

[LaTunaNostra]

Troy has published questions/suggestions in how various ratings are performed, including the famous QB rating, before. Is this Ofense & Dfens rating of his something new? I'm curous as to the measurement criteria behind it. He had good points/input on the QB rating thing so i'm figuring he covered all the bases with his own yard stick.

Aikman's got a bee in his bonnet about this, and the fact he writes for NFL.com and is pushing it there might mean the league is looking into a new formula.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
An open letter for statistical change


By Troy Aikman
Special to NFL.com


Aug. 25, 2004

MEMORANDUM

To: NFL Competition Committee
From: Troy Aikman, NFL.com analyst
Re: Offensive, Defensive Rankings

Dear Competition Committee:

I am writing to request that you consider changing the way the NFL keeps track of the top offenses and defenses in its statistics.

Currently, the offensive and defensive team rankings are based on total yards. For instance, the Minnesota Vikings led the NFL in total offense last season. That's based purely on the fact that they had more yards than anybody else. However, they did not lead the league in points scored, first downs, rushing yards, passing yards or third-down efficiency.

The No. 1 defense is based on a team having allowed fewer yards than anyone else. In 2000, the Baltimore Ravens set an NFL record for fewest points allowed in a 16-game season (165) and won the Super Bowl with what many consider one of the best defenses in league history. But the top-ranked defense that year, based on fewest yards allowed, belonged to the Tennessee Titans.

You can see why I don't agree with the system that is currently in place.

The ranking system should be like the passer ratings for quarterbacks. Whoever wins the passing title has won that title based on a system in which several factors are calculated into every pass you attempt -- yards per completion, yards per attempt, touchdown ratio and interception ratio.

I think they should do the same thing for total offense and total defense. The categories for both would be as follows:

Yards per play
Points scored
Turnovers
Red-zone efficiency
Third-down conversions

Whoever came up with the equation for the passer rating should be able to take all this data and come up with a formula to determine the top-ranked units. That way, when we talk about a team being the "No. 1 offense," we're talking about a group that is truly efficient and impressive.


The Chargers were second in points scored last season, but they rated sixth overall.
Because when it's just a matter of yardage, the passing teams are always going to rank higher. The Colts ranked third in total offense last year, but all that meant was that they had a ton of passing yards. The Colts led the NFL in passing yards, but they ranked 19th in rushing.

Changing the way we measure these statistics would not only be for the fans' benefit. In fact, it's more for the benefit of assistant coaches around the league. A lot of coaches get jobs based on what their units do statistically. There are a lot of offensive coordinators around the league that really want to throw the ball around because it's more appealing -- it looks better and gets them noticed a little bit more.

I've talked to coaches about this and I have yet to hear any of them say, "I don't agree with you." Those that I have spoken with think it makes sense. Because then the No. 1 team is No. 1 for a good reason.

I understand no formula is perfect. If a quarterback plays great while driving his team down the field, but his team runs the ball into the end zone, and then he throws a few interceptions, his rating is hurt. If a quarterback wisely throws the ball away to avoid a sack, it hurts his rating. There are always things you can point to and say it's not a true barometer. But this idea is a better one than what's currently in place.

The passer rating was implemented in 1973. Obviously, somebody thought it was worthwhile to do. It's a way that you can judge quarterbacks and get a fairly decent idea as to how well they're performing. You should be able to do the same thing with team offense and team defense.

Thank you for considering this idea. I'd be happy to discuss it further at the next Competition Committee meeting.

Yours,
Troy Aikman

[TruBlueCowboy]

I guess it takes someone like Troy Aikman, who was never appreciated for his true greatness because he didn't have the basic numbers all the stat geeks love, to make the kind of logical stat changes we need in the NFL. :)

[LaTunaNostra]

I guess it takes someone like Troy Aikman, who was never appreciated for his true greatness because he didn't have the basic numbers all the stat geeks love, to make the kind of logical stat changes we need in the NFL. :)
I hope he becomes insufferable with it, and pushes it til folks walk out of the room when he comes in. The QB ratings changes with the yards gained rushing and the down efficiency numbers as well as the Off and Def formulae.

[sunbum]

there you go, you must have found it!

Yards per play
Points scored
Turnovers
Red-zone efficiency
Third-down conversions

i imagine he took his own recipe to create this rating. i think it's pretty cool that he cares so much for the game where he thinks at this deep level. and to top it off, he has an avenue and takes advantage to counter what he doesn't agree with. go Troy!

also, i don't believe Troy has any agenda with this. even though i like stats, wish my brain could remember them better, Troy is all throughout the NFL history books. he doesn't need to recalculate numbers to make himself shine more than he already does. this is good ole fasion passion for football.....it's all good.

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[QUOTE=LaTunaNostra]Aikman's got a bee in his bonnet about this, and the fact he writes for NFL.com and is pushing it there might mean the league is looking into a new formula.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
An open letter for statistical change


By Troy Aikman
Special to NFL.com


Aug. 25, 2004

MEMORANDUM

To: NFL Competition Committee
From: Troy Aikman, NFL.com analyst
Re: Offensive, Defensive Rankings

Dear Competition Committee:

I am writing to request that you consider changing the way the NFL keeps track of the top offenses and defenses in its statistics.

[LaTunaNostra]

[QUOTE=sunbum]there you go, you must have found it!

Yards per play
Points scored
Turnovers
Red-zone efficiency
Third-down conversions

i imagine he took his own recipe to create this rating. i think it's pretty cool that he cares so much for the game where he thinks at this deep level. and to top it off, he has an avenue and takes advantage to counter what he doesn't agree with. go Troy!

also, i don't believe Troy has any agenda with this. even though i like stats, wish my brain could remember them better, Troy is all throughout the NFL history books. he doesn't need to recalculate numbers to make himself shine more than he already does. this is good ole fasion passion for football.....it's all good.

-----------------------------------------------

I didn't find it, I had linked it in My Favorites when I first read it.

No, he has no agenda, unless he's got something against anachronistic, antideluvian, archaic formulae that border on irrelevance. Stupid criteria for stats geeks to use to prove what the naked eye and common sense deny - that you can judge the effectiveness of a QB, offense, or defense on such limited variables.

His problem is he makes too much sense. That's never a strong suit when promoting change. He better watch his back tho, the "purists" ain't gonna go for Mike Vick's rush yardage factored into his QB rating.

Btw, welcome to the Zone!

[sunbum]

hey thnx......glad to be back. was out of the loop for a bit but for some reason, my sign on stuff wouldn't work anymore. i needed to re-register.

anyways.....i frequent a bunch of the Cowboy's boards and this one is pretty solid. there are many insightful posters here, including yourself, who offer excellent dialog, news, updates, etc. i'm hoping i can add to it.

well, keep the Cowboy's passion alive and i look forward to bumping into you again. :)
-----------------------------------------------

[QUOTE=sunbum]there you go, you must have found it!

Yards per play
Points scored
Turnovers
Red-zone efficiency
Third-down conversions

i imagine he took his own recipe to create this rating. i think it's pretty cool that he cares so much for the game where he thinks at this deep level. and to top it off, he has an avenue and takes advantage to counter what he doesn't agree with. go Troy!

also, i don't believe Troy has any agenda with this. even though i like stats, wish my brain could remember them better, Troy is all throughout the NFL history books. he doesn't need to recalculate numbers to make himself shine more than he already does. this is good ole fasion passion for football.....it's all good.

-----------------------------------------------

I didn't find it, I had linked it in My Favorites when I first read it.

No, he has no agenda, unless he's got something against anachronistic, antideluvian, archaic formulae that border on irrelevance. Stupid criteria for stats geeks to use to prove what the naked eye and common sense deny - that you can judge the effectiveness of a QB, offense, or defense on such limited variables.

His problem is he makes too much sense. That's never a strong suit when promoting change. He better watch his back tho, the "purists" ain't gonna go for Mike Vick's rush yardage factored into his QB rating.

Btw, welcome to the Zone!

[TruBlueCowboy]

I have more respect for Aikman as the years go on. How many players retire, become successful businessmen, join the lead broadcast team, and then in their spare time, figure out ways to make NFL stats more relevant. :cool:

[SA_Gunslinger]

i'm shocked the iggles have the number 31 defense, yards wise.