Completion percentage over-rated?

[MichaelWinicki]

Over in another thread (the "Couch-Bust" thread)... several folks gave the opinion that "Completion Percentage" was one of the most over-rated stats in the NFL.

I'm not sure how someone could support that particular argument when the statistics completely blow it out of the water.

For instance below is a listing of all QB's in 2003 that had 200 or more at temps. "Completion Percentage" is marked with the heading "Pct". The quarterbacks are ranked by completion percentage... from highest to lowest.


2003 Regular Season NFL · AFC · NFC Player SortablesQuarterback
Quarterback Passing
Player Team G Att Att/G Comp Pct Yds Yds/G Lng TDs Int Sck SckY Rate
Peyton Manning IND 16 566 35.4 379 67.0 4267 266.7 79 29 10 18 107 99.0
Brett Favre GB 16 471 29.4 308 65.4 3361 210.1 66 32 21 19 137 90.4
Daunte Culpepp MIN 14 454 32.4 295 65.0 3479 248.5 59 25 11 37 196 96.4
Kelly Holcomb CLE 10 302 30.2 193 63.9 1797 179.7 68 10 12 21 166 74.6
Chad PenningtoNYJ 10 297 29.7 189 63.6 2139 213.9 65 13 12 25 160 82.9
Marc Bulger STL 15 532 35.5 336 63.2 3845 256.3 48 22 22 37 288 81.4
Trent Green KC 16 523 32.7 330 63.1 4039 252.4 67 24 12 20 130 92.6
Jake Plummer DEN 11 302 27.5 189 62.6 2182 198.4 60 15 7 14 73 91.2
Steve McNair TEN 14 400 28.6 250 62.5 3215 229.6 73 24 7 19 108 100.4
Jon Kitna CIN 16 520 32.5 324 62.3 3591 224.4 82 26 15 37 249 87.4
Brad Johnson TB 16 570 35.6 354 62.1 3811 238.2 76 26 21 20 111 81.5
Matt Hasselbec SEA 16 513 32.1 313 61.0 3841 240.1 80 26 15 42 246 88.8
Tom Brady NE 16 527 32.9 317 60.2 3620 226.2 82 23 12 32 219 85.9
Jake Delhomme CAR 16 449 28.1 266 59.2 3219 201.2 67 19 16 23 168 80.6
Aaron Brooks NO 16 518 32.4 306 59.1 3546 221.6 76 24 8 34 195 88.8
Tim Couch CLE 10 203 20.3 120 59.1 1319 131.9 71 7 6 19 116 77.6
Drew Bledsoe BUF 16 471 29.4 274 58.2 2860 178.8 54 11 12 49 371 73.0
Quincy Carter DAL 16 505 31.6 292 57.8 3302 206.4 64 17 21 37 185 71.4
Drew Brees SD 11 356 32.4 205 57.6 2108 191.6 68 11 15 21 178 67.5
Donovan McNaPHI 16 478 29.9 275 57.5 3216 201.0 59 16 11 43 253 79.6
Tommy MaddoxPIT 16 519 32.4 298 57.4 3414 213.4 53 18 17 41 242 75.3
Jeff Garcia SF 13 392 30.2 225 57.4 2704 208.0 75 18 13 21 104 80.1
Byron LeftwichJAC 15 418 27.9 239 57.2 2819 187.9 84 14 16 19 90 73.0
Jay Fiedler MIA 12 314 26.2 179 57.0 2138 178.2 59 11 13 19 126 72.4
Kerry Collins NYG 13 500 38.5 284 56.8 3110 239.2 77 13 16 28 164 70.7
Jeff Blake ARI 13 367 28.2 208 56.7 2247 172.8 71 13 15 19 132 69.6
David Carr HOU 12 295 24.6 167 56.6 2013 167.8 78 9 13 15 90 69.5
Joey Harringto DET 16 554 34.6 309 55.8 2880 180.0 72 17 22 9 55 63.9
Rich Gannon OAK 7 225 32.1 125 55.6 1274 182.0 46 6 4 17 90 73.5
Patrick Ramsey WAS11 337 30.6 179 53.1 2166 196.9 64 14 9 30 206 75.8
Rick Mirer OAK 9 221 24.6 116 52.5 1267 140.8 47 3 5 22 122 64.8
Kyle Boller BAL 11 224 20.4 116 51.8 1260 114.5 73 7 9 17 92 62.4
Kordell Stewart CHI 9 251 27.9 126 50.2 1418 157.6 61 7 12 25 146 56.8

Now, lets do some analysis...

Out of the 33 QB's on this list 16 have a completion percentage better than 59% and 17 have a completion percentage lower than 59%.

Of those ranked with the best completion percentages (the top 16), they have a total winning record of 152-104 or a winning percentage of .594 (based upon 2003) while those comprising the worst completion percentages (the bottom 17) have a total record of 108-164 or a winning percentage of .397 (based upon 2003).

And if that doesn't sway you then lets look at "points scored". If one were to compare the scoring offenses of all the above QB's one would find that of the top 10 scoring offenses in the NFL in 2003, that only 2 were led by QBs with a completion percentage of less than 59%. As a matter of fact, the 5 top scoring offenses in the NFL were led by QBs within the the top 9 most accurate QB's in the league.

So no matter how you slice it... by wins or by scoring, those QB's that have better completion percentages lead their teams to more wins and more scoring.

[AJM1613]

So no matter how you slice it... by wins or by scoring, those QB's that have better completion percentages lead their teams to more wins and more scoring.

http://eagles.hosttown.com/html/emoticons/whistling.gif

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2003/Oct-04-Sat-2003/photos/mcnabb.jpg

[MichaelWinicki]

http://eagles.hosttown.com/html/emoticons/whistling.gif

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2003/Oct-04-Sat-2003/photos/mcnabb.jpg


I guess you noticed how far down list McNabb is... :D

[AJM1613]

I guess you noticed how far down list McNabb is... :D

1 Donovan McNabb PHI 575 64 45 6 0 53 129.4
2 Chad Pennington NYJ 482 56 42 4 0 48 124.3
3 Daunte Culpepper MIN 585 70 54 6 1 63 123.8
4 Peyton Manning IND 510 62 40 4 1 64 104.9
5 Tom Brady NE 554 64 41 5 3 29 98.0
6 Michael Vick ATL 342 41 27 2 1 62 97.8
7 Marc Bulger STL 557 65 47 2 2 36 95.5
8 Aaron Brooks NO 502 71 43 4 1 45 94.9
9 Joey Harrington DET 363 51 32 4 2 34 93.8
10 David Carr HOU 542 59 42 2 3 54 89.8
11 Kurt Warner NYG 435 61 38 1 0 43 89.2
12 Rich Gannon OAK 514 64 39 3 2 58 88.9
13 Drew Brees SD 355 43 25 3 2 59 88.8
14 Drew Bledsoe BUF 351 50 30 2 1 65 86.3
15 Jake Delhomme CAR 464 68 39 5 3 34 84.4
16 Tim Rattay SF 175 31 18 2 1 17 82.1
17 Steve McNair TEN 346 53 34 1 1 33 81.2
18 Vinny Testaverde DAL 677 85 52 2 3 37 79.4
19 Jake Plummer DEN 480 68 41 2 2 58 79.3
20 Brett Favre GB 395 64 39 2 2 44 76.0
21 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 393 55 31 2 2 38 75.8
22 Carson Palmer CIN 395 65 39 2 2 53 74.8
23 Ken Dorsey SF 316 47 27 0 1 37 69.1
24 Tommy Maddox PIT 209 35 17 0 0 39 67.4
25 Mark Brunell WAS 217 42 23 1 1 27 67.3
26 A.J. Feeley MIA 386 70 42 2 3 37 66.7
27 Chris Simms TB 175 32 21 0 1 35 66.5
28 Byron Leftwich JAC 267 52 26 2 2 45 61.9
29 Josh McCown ARI 341 58 31 0 2 42 56.8
30 Kyle Boller BAL 289 56 32 0 2 24 56.3

[Derinyar]

Completion % is a useful stat, but really has to be taken in context of what type of offense that the team is playing in.

Pennington is a good QB, but if you look mostly at completion % he looks like a worldbeater.

If you run a lot of short routes, the % should rise if your QB is accurate and on time.

[jterrell]

You are making my points for me. THANKS.

Look at how far down the list the SB QBs were.

Comp. Percentage is OVERRATED. Period.

A QB does need to be accurate but throwing 65% of your passes to your backs doesn't make you a good QB.

As far as stats go 3rd down success and TD passes to INT ratio are far more important.

Comp Percentages and QB rating were much less in the 70's and 80's than they are now because teams actually took shots down field that resulted in points, not 9 passes per drive all for 6 to 10 yards. Nowadays you see guys run out of bounds for a 3 yard loss as opposed to tossing and incompletion. Is that good football? Does tossing a screen pass that losses 3 yards make you a good passer?

[MichaelWinicki]

You are making my points for me. THANKS.

Look at how far down the list the SB QBs were.

Comp. Percentage is OVERRATED. Period.

A QB does need to be accurate but throwing 65% of your passes to your backs doesn't make you a good QB.

As far as stats go 3rd down success and TD passes to INT ratio are far more important.

Comp Percentages and QB rating were much less in the 70's and 80's than they are now because teams actually took shots down field that resulted in points, not 9 passes per drive all for 6 to 10 yards. Nowadays you see guys run out of bounds for a 3 yard loss as opposed to tossing and incompletion. Is that good football? Does tossing a screen pass that losses 3 yards make you a good passer?

JT, what you're saying then is that while completion percentage doesn't a SB make, neither does defense because you've totally ignored defense in your argument about who makes a superbowl and who doesn't.

Also I do believe both SB quarterbacks were above the league average in completion percentage.

Maybe you can take a stab at how completion percentage has no connection to offensive performance?

[Tuna Helper]

Completion % is a useful stat, but really has to be taken in context of what type of offense that the team is playing in.

Pennington is a good QB, but if you look mostly at completion % he looks like a worldbeater.

If you run a lot of short routes, the % should rise if your QB is accurate and on time.

True. QBs that run the West Coast Offense should have a higher % due to the shorter routes and high percentage passes. This is why Montana never impressed me.

Aikman on the other hand was deadly accurate (high %) in an offense that was not the West Coast Offense...and this was during a time where we could not run screens successfully at all either.