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03-25-2005
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#1 | ||||
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Semi-Official Loose Cannon
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Bear's Annual Look at the Draft, 2005 Edition-- part 1
I actually wrote this piece yesterday, for a magazine in Britain, and when I was done I did what I usually do, I posted it to the assorted message boards I haunt... that includes this one, but it was just too LONG to be accepted in here... TrickBlue suggested I split it up into two posts, and after thinking about it, I realized this piece was organized so that I could pretty easily post the first day's picks in one post, then rounds 4-7 in a second post... so, here comes the first part:
In our last installment, we examined the Boys’ possible moves in free agency this offseason, and I mentioned that I’d be tying my draft analysis in with those free agent moves. Well, not to blow my own horn (too much), but so far every one of the Boys’ offseason signings except Drew Bledsoe appeared in that free agency analysis. Jason Ferguson was rated the second best DT, behind Corey Simon (I didn’t know at that time that the Eagles would franchise Corey). Marco Rivera was my top-rated OG. Anthony Henry was fifth on my CBs list. And on the future trade front, the Boys are in hot-and-cold negotiations to trade with the Saints for franchise DE Darren Howard, who was second on my list—behind John Abraham. This proposed trade will impact my draft analysis in a big way. It’s actually kind of unusual that I’m enjoying this kind of accuracy, that has not been the case in years past. I often got the positions the Boys would be targeting right, but rarely did I come up with the right player at that position. My success this year has got me feeling cocky, and I honestly believe this draft analysis will be my best one ever. The reason is really pretty simple, I have access to somewhat better, more thorough sources this year… there is a lot of info out there, in the remote corners of the internet… In the last year or so, I have found that you CAN pick up signals about where the Boys are looking, if you’re paying attention; for example, I was one of the few people who was not surprised when the Boys drafted Patrick Crayton last year. Though Parcells pulls down a kind of “Cone of Silence” over Valley Ranch each year, if you’re willing to comb through enough media reports you can pick up a sense for what kind of players the Boys are targeting. With sufficient research, you can even come up with a kind of value board. At this point, I have seen the names of no less than 30 players for whom the Cowboys have conducted private interviews and/or workouts. I will make a point of pointing those players out as they get mentioned in my analysis Now then, let’s start thinking about the draft. As a result of these early free agent moves, the Boys have lessened (if not completely eliminated) needs at CB, DT, QB and OG… those of you who recall my free agency analysis will remember that leaves major holes at FS, LB, ROT, WR and backup RB still to be addressed. And if the trade for Darren Howard ultimately falls through, DE help will be high on the list too. My gut tells me that the Howard deal will eventually happen, though. If that deal does eventually go down, the rumored price is a second round draft pick. The Saints are reported to be holding out for more, but Howard and the Cowboys kind of have them over a barrel, so I doubt that the eventual price will be much higher than a second rounder. In fact, I could see Jerry holding the Saints hostage until after the draft, then swapping them a pick in the 2006 draft for Howard. Anyway, the Cowboys might have a second round pick in the upcoming draft, and they might not. There have also been rumors about them looking into trading down with their second first round pick, looking to add one more first day pick, probably a late second/early third round pick. Last but not least, we learned in the last day or so that the Boys will get two compensatory picks, back to back at the end of the sixth round, for the loss of CB Mario Edwards and DE Ebenezer Ekuban last year. That leaves the Boys with 2 first round picks, a second, no third rounder, a fourth, a fifth, 2 sixths, and a seventh. They may well add more by trading down some on the first day. With that rather lengthy preamble behind us, on with the prognosticating: ROUND 1A—11th overall Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas 6-3, 240 lbs. 4.55 sec. 40 Shawne Merriman, DE/OLB, Maryland 6-4, 270 lbs. 4.6 sec. 40 Mike Williams, WR, USC 6-5, 230 lbs. 4.55 sec. 40 Marcus Spears, DE/DT, LSU 6-4, 306 lbs. 4.8 sec. 40 Comments—Johnson, Merriman or Williams might be off the board by the time pick 11 rolls around. Any one of them might be drafted in the top ten, but I rather doubt all three will be. If they are, that would probably mean that other prospects like WR Braylon Edwards, RB Ronnie Brown or RB Cedric Benson have slipped some, and might be worth consideration at that point. Johnson has the look of a perennial Pro Bowl linebacker, with rare speed and cover skills for his size. There are criticisms that he’s not the strongest linebacker around, and that he runs around blocks a little too often, but these are deficiencies that should be minimized if not eliminated altogether when Johnson gets in an NFL strength program. To me, he looks like a bigger Derrick Brooks; he has great range, and offers big play potential (he set an NCAA record last year for most fumbles caused in a single season). Merriman is more of the “tweener” that the Cowboys will be looking for if they’re serious about switching to the 3-4 for their base defense. At 270 pounds, he has the size to play standup DE, but his sub-4.6 second 40 suggests he can also play the hybrid, pass-rushing OLB in a 3-4. The Boys have shown a lot of interest in Merriman over the course of this offseason, and some mediots have speculated that he’s the player they’ve been targeting for a while now. Williams is a huge WR, David Boston huge. Hopefully, his size is more “natural” than Boston’s was. It’s really kind of unlikely that he’ll still be on the board at pick 11, but if he is, the Boys will likely give him serious consideration. Even if the worst-case scenario happened, even if Williams, Merriman and Johnson are all off the board in the top ten picks, all is not lost; the Boys have shown some interest in Spears too. Marcus has the size to play DE in a 3-4 scheme, or he could move inside to DT in a 4-3. There is little chance that anybody will draft Spears before pick 11, in fact the Boys might be able to get away with trading down 5-6 slots and still be able to add him to their roster. Personal Preference—Johnson, followed by Merriman… ROUND 1B—20th overall Anttaj Hawthorne, DT, Wisconsin 6-3, 316 lbs. 5.05 sec. 40 Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina 6-1, 206 lbs. 4.35 sec. 40 David Pollack, DE, Georgia 6-2, 265 lbs. 4.75 sec. 40 Shaun Cody, DT/DE, USC 6-4, 295 lbs. 4.95 sec. 40 Roddy White, WR, Alabama-Birmingham 6-1, 206 lbs. 4.45 sec. 40 Comments—first off, with any of the picks I discuss here, if a player rated as a top prospect for a previous pick is still on the board when the next pick rolls around, you’d obviously have to include him in your players to target with the current pick. For example, if Marcus Spears is still on the board at pick 20, you have to take a close look at him. Hawthorne is one of the highest rated DTs in this draft, and the Boys have interviewed him in recent weeks. However, I have a notion that the addition of Jason Ferguson has pushed DT down to a somewhat lower priority in this draft, probably down to where the Boys might think about using a second day pick on one. Williamson is a receiver with good size and very, very good speed. He has drawn comparisons to Alvin Harper (to be fair, Harper was a little bigger, but not quite as fast as Williamson). Jerry has talked about the need to add some deep speed to the WR corps, Troy might be the guy who could provide that, and the Boys have shown some interest in him. Pollack is a personal favorite of your friendly local Bear, even though he doesn’t have great computer numbers. He isn’t real big, and he isn’t real fast; all he seems to do is get to the quarterback. Perhaps the most amazing stat about Pollack is the 108 quarterback hurries he posted in college. That’s pretty consistent pressure on the passer. Shaun Cody is another defensive lineman who apparently intrigues the Cowboys. Some scouts say he might be able to move out to DE in a 3-4 scheme, but from what I’ve seen of him he looks like a traditional 4-3 DT. Roddy White is another speedy, big receiver who will likely be drafted early, and another WR that the Boys have talked with in recent weeks. Some might be surprised at the Cowboys’ focus on WR this offseason (there will be others discussed shortly), but we should all remember how the offense went in the toilet right after Terry Glenn got hurt last year. The Boys are simply not real deep at WR, in fact anything after the third receiver slot is a big question mark (I’m counting Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn and Quincy Morgan as the top 3 WRs). We should also keep in mind that Keyshawn and Terry are getting a little long in the tooth by NFL standards. Personal Preference—trade down 10-12 picks, adding another first day pick. Then look at Pollack or Williamson… ROUND 2—Pick 42 (?) Marlin Jackson, CB/FS, Michigan 6-1, 200 lbs. 4.45 sec. 40 Darryl Blackstock, OLB, Virginia 6-3, 245 lbs. 4.65 sec. 40 Luis Castillo, DT, Northwestern 6-3, 310 lbs. 4.75 sec. 40 Josh Bullocks, FS, Nebraska 6-1, 210 lbs. 4.45 sec. 40 Terrence Murphy, WR, Texas A&M 6-1, 200 lbs. 4.4 sec. 40 Matt Jones, WR, Arkansas 6-6, 240 lbs. 4.4 sec. 40 Comments—Let me stress once again that the Boys are talking with the Saints about trading for franchise DE Darren Howard, and if that trade goes through, this second round pick may well be the compensation (or at least partial compensation). On the flip side, though, there’s the very real possibility of the Boys trading down with their second first round pick, adding another second or third round pick in the process. Parcells and Jones have both expressed the opinion this offseason that the new rules regarding how physically a CB can play a WR have rendered obsolete the concept of the “shutdown corner”. As a result, they contend that it’s tough to justify spending a first round pick on a CB. However, they have said nothing about drafting a corner in the second round or later, and there is some very good depth at that position in this draft. As a result, Jackson might make a lot of sense for the Cowboys here (his draft stock seems to be slipping some here lately, I don’t know why). Marlin might actually be an ideal candidate to move to FS, a position where the Boys have a real need. He played safety his junior year at Michigan, moved back to the corner for his senior season. Blackstock is one of those rush linebackers that every 3-4 defense needs. He can really get after the passer, and his speed makes him effective in pursuit. Castillo is a recent addition to my short list, after I read about his exceptional 40 time at the combine (4.75 seconds, for a 310 pounder). Bullocks is probably the best pure FS in this draft, the most effective cover guy, and the Boys have a pressing need at that position. This is a need they won’t likely be able to fill in free agency, if they’re successful in trading for Darren Howard. Murphy is a wideout who seems to interest the Cowboys some. He has an excellent size/speed ratio, and is one of the more precise route runners in this draft. He is perhaps the most polished, NFL-ready prospect at WR in this draft. Even so, he might not interest the Cowboys as much as Matt Jones does. First off, Matt is a Razorback, and that always gives a prospect an edge with Jerry. More to the point, though, he had an absolutely freakish workout at the combine; he’s trying to make the switch from QB to WR (some scouts project him to TE, because of his size), and helped his cause immeasurably by running sub-4.4 second 40s. His other agility drills were quite impressive, too… I have this hunch that Jerry is quite taken with this guy, and wouldn’t be surprised if he drafted Jones at this point. Personally, I think that Matt is more of a third round type, so I wouldn’t consider him particularly good value at this point, though I am a fan of his. Personal Preference—Blackstock or Bullocks… ROUND 3—The Cowboys have no picks at this point, but we’ll take a look anyway, in case of trades. James Butler, FS, Georgia Tech 6-2, 216 lbs. 4.5 sec. 40 Chris Canty, DE, Virginia 6-7, 286 lbs. 4.85 sec. 40 Reggie Brown, WR, Georgia 6-2, 200 lbs. 4.45 sec. 40 Fred Gibson, WR, Georgia 6-4, 200 lbs. 4.5 sec. 40 Mike Nugent, K, Ohio State 5-10, 186 lbs. 4.75 sec. 40 Sean Considine, FS, Iowa 6-1, 210 lbs. 4.5 sec. 40 Eric Shelton, RB, Louisville 6-1, 245 lbs. 4.55 sec. 40 Comments—If Bullocks isn’t the best pure coverage FS in this draft, then Butler is. Josh gets the edge on my board because he’s a scoche faster. Canty would have gone much higher in this draft if he hadn’t torn his knee up early last season. If he can show that he’s fully recovered (or at least, well on the way toward a full recovery), then he’d be a steal here in the third round. He has exceptional size for a DE, and would be a good fit in a 3-4 scheme. Georgia held its Pro Day a day or two ago, and the Cowboys were reportedly showing great interest in Brown and Gibson. Nugent is widely regarded the best kicker to come along in a while (an opinion I’m not sure I share, because he doesn’t seem to kick off real well), and will almost assuredly be a first day pick. We know the Boys aren’t entirely happy with Billy Cundiff, so it wouldn’t be a great shock if they went with a kicker early on in this draft, and Nugent is the only kicker worthy of early consideration. Considine is another possible FS candidate at this point. Shelton is one of the few running backs the Cowboys have shown an interest in. He brings terrific size to the table. Power is his game. Personal Preference—Butler or Canty… Part Deux to follow in just a coupla minutes... you've been warned...
Smarter than the av-er-age bear...
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03-25-2005
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#2 | ||||
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Semi-Official Loose Cannon
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Part Deux-- Rounds 4-7
ROUND 4
Chris Kemoeatu, OG, Utah 6-3, 346 lbs. 5.35 sec. 40 Adam Snyder, OG, Oregon 6-5, 316 lbs. 5.3 sec. 40 Ray Willis, OT, Florida State 6-6, 325 lbs. 5.3 sec. 40 Claude Terrell, OG, New Mexico 6-2, 346 lbs. 5.35 sec. 40 Bill Swancutt, DE, Oregon State 6-4, 270 lbs. 4.8 sec. 40 Jim Davis, DE, Virginia Tech 6-5, 275 lbs. 4.8 sec. 40 Junius Coston, C, North Carolina A&T 6-3, 310 lbs. 5.3 sec. 40 Comments—As the second day of the draft kicks off, we find seven different prospects that the Cowboys have shown interest in—five offensive linemen, two defensive linemen. Looking at this list, it seems likely to me that the Boys will be targeting OL help in this round. I mean, Swancutt and Davis are both intriguing DEs, with mediocre speed, but those five offensive linemen look like studs. What I find interesting is that in spite of the widely held belief that Parcells prefers linemen who might be smallish by today’s standards but who can move really well, this list features three massive maulers (Kemoeatu, Terrell and Willis). For that matter, none of the five blockers considered here could be considered “finesse” linemen. This is a collection of maulers. Personal Preference—Kemoeatu, Terrell or Willis would all suit me just fine. Given that Willis plays RT, I think he’d be my first choice (that’s another need position for the Boys), but I sure do like Kemoeatu’s and Terrell’s size… ROUND 5 Steve Savoy, WR, Utah 5-11, 186 lbs. 4.6 sec. 40 Sione Pouha, DT, Utah 6-3, 325 lbs. 4.95 sec. 40 Jonathon Goddard, OLB/DE, Marshall 6-1, 240 lbs. 4.65 sec. 40 Dustin Fox, CB/FS, Ohio State 5-11, 195 lbs. 4.45 sec. 40 George Gause, DE, South Carolina 6-5, 275 lbs. 4.8 sec. 40 David McMillan, DE, Kansas 6-3, 260 lbs. 4.55 sec. 40 Leroy Hill, LB, Clemson 6-1, 230 lbs. 4.65 sec. 40 Comments—Savoy, Pouha, Gause and Hill are all players the Cowboys have shown some interest in prior to the draft. Candidly, I don’t understand what they see in Savoy, he seems awfully slow for a smallish WR (he didn’t break 4.6 seconds in the 40 at the combine). After Savoy, the prospects for this pick are defensive prospects exclusively. As I mentioned earlier, Pouha worked out privately for the Cowboys. He’d be a nice addition to the DT rotation, massive and agile. Goddard was an extremely effective pass rusher for Marshall, but definitely falls into the “tweener” category. Fox is a little small for a FS, but he has CB cover skills, so he might be worth a look at this point. I’m not sure what the Boys see in Gause, but I know they’ve been looking at him, so he should be included in this analysis. McMillan is incredibly fast for a 260 pounder, the kind of speed that might transfer well to the NFL. Hill is an intriguing prospect, though he played MLB at Clemson, some scouts think he might be best suited to move out to safety. The Cowboys have spent some time with him this offseason, too. Personal Preference—Pouha or Goddard… ROUND 6 (2 picks) Jordan Beck, OLB, Cal Poly-SLO 6-2, 235 lbs. 4.6 sec. 40 Tyler Jones, K, Boise State 6-1, 200 lbs. 5.0 sec. 40 Alvin Pearman, RB/KR, Virginia 5-10, 206 lbs. 4.55 sec. 40 Reggie Harrell, WR, TCU 6-3, 216 lbs. 4.55 sec. 40 Adam Seward, MLB, UNLV 6-2, 250 lbs. 4.55 sec. 40 Sam Mayes, OG, Oklahoma State 6-3, 340 lbs. 5.3 sec. 40 Steven Gibbs, OG, Arkansas State 6-3, 340 lbs. 5.25 sec. 40 Comments—This is the round in which I do my greatest guesswork; none of these players are included in that group of 30 that the Cowboys have shown interest in. At this point, none of the players the Boys have been linked to seem to be considered likely 6th round prospects. I have a hunch they have some players targeted in this range, we just haven’t heard about them. So I’m looking at BPA at this point, and this is an intriguing group to me. Beck is a very quick, very mobile linebacker, one who was very productive in college, albeit at a rather low level of competition. He seems to be adept dropping into coverage. The Cowboys need an upgrade at LB, especially after sending Dexter Coakley packing. For that matter, Seward would probably also represent an upgrade at MLB (at least from a depth standpoint early on), he runs really well for a 250 pounder. Jones is the kicker I’d personally target in this draft, as he’s unlikely to be drafted before the sixth round, but he seems to have an even stronger leg than Mike Nugent, especially for kickoffs. He does put the ball deep into the end zone with some frequency. Nugent might be the more “clutch” kicker, but Jones connected on better than 80 per cent of his field goal attempts in college, so he’s no slouch in the clutch department either… he gives you better kickoffs than Nugent, doesn’t cost you a first day draft pick, and you don’t give up a whole lot in the way of field goal accuracy. Pearman’s computer numbers don’t jump out at you, he’s not real big and his speed is only marginally adequate. However, he has been a very effective third down back and kick returner for the Cavs throughout his college career. I believe he has the ability to be nice third down back in the NFL. Harrell is a big receiver with little in the way of speed, but he has also been quite productive in college. I just find myself wondering if he’ll be quick enough to get separation from pro defensive backs. Mayes and Gibbs are two more large offensive linemen, pure maulers. Gibbs played his college ball at Arkansas State, and as I noted earlier when talking about Matt Jones, you know that Jerry has his scouting staff working the Arkansas schools really hard. Personal Preference—Beck and Jones. ROUND 7 Geir Gudmundsen, OT, Albany 6-6, 316 lbs. 5.35 sec. 40 Kurt Campbell, OLB/S, Albany 6-1, 225 lbs. ?? sec. 40 Neal Philpot, TE/FB, Pittsburg State 6-4, 255 lbs. 4.75 sec. 40 Colt Colletti, RB, Nicholls State 5-9, 216 lbs. 4.5 sec. 40 Will Matthews, FB, Texas 6-1, 240 lbs. 4.8 sec. 40 Rasheed Marshall, WR, West Virginia 6-1, 186 lbs. 4.5 sec. 40 Comments—Curiously enough, I didn’t have to use as much guesswork with this pick as I did in the sixth round. This is because in the last few days, I have learned about 4 sleepers the Boys have looked at closely, all of them carrying late round/ undrafted rookie free agent grades. I’m talking about the first 4 on this list, Gudmundsen, Campbell, Philpot and Colletti. Gudmundsen is a physical battler, who has wrestled collegiately. He’s generally considered a powerful run blocker, but rather raw when it comes to pass blocking. This is something that good coaching can correct. He started 44 consecutive games for Albany, a tribute to his durability. His teammate Campbell might have played LB in college, but some scouts are speculating that there’s a move to SS in his future. Though the Cowboys’ most pressing need at safety is for a free safety right now, a little quality depth for Roy Williams at SS would be welcomed. Philpot is a conversion project from quarterback; some scouts project him to TE, a few see him as a possible FB. He was a dangerous runner in college, gaining 4337 yards on 827 carries (a 5.2 ypc average), scoring 60 TDs along the way. Colletti is the classic sleeper, so much so that there were only three teams at his Pro Day workout (the Cowboys were one of the three). For his career, he gained 1517 yards on 273 carries (5.6 ypc average). The final two seventh round prospects are Bear’s Sleeper Specials; Matthews is a Daryl Johnston-esque fullback, a potent lead blocker and adequate receiver out of the backfield. Marshall is another quarterback trying to make a switch to another position, he might be a poor man’s Hines Ward. Personal Preference—Gudmundsen or Philpot… So, if the draft went really well for the Cowboys, if things broke just right for them, they might be able to come up with a draft that looks something like this: 1a) Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas… 1b) Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina 2) Josh Bullocks, FS, Nebraska 4) Ray Willis, OT, Florida State 5) Sione Pouha, DT, Utah 6a) Tyler Jones, K, Boise State 6b) Jordan Beck, OLB, Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo 7) Geir Gudmundsen, OT, Albany In my opinion, this draft addresses most of the team’s needs. Johnson and Beck upgrade the linebacking corps, Williamson should be able to make an impact as a rookie, Bullocks might well wind up the starter at FS. Willis and Gudmundsen would be thrown into the competition to fill the black hole at RT, Pouha would be a terrific backup for Jason Ferguson on the nose, and Jones would in all likelihood beat out Billy Cundiff for the starting kicker job. Combine that with the moves already made in free agency, and you’re looking at a significantly improved team. Now, if only the Cowboys will LISTEN to me.
Smarter than the av-er-age bear...
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03-25-2005
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Senior Member
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03-25-2005
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Federal Agent
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God help us all.   |
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03-25-2005
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Senior Member
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Great analysis and information. Thanks
They just don't make them like Roger anymore.
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03-25-2005
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Semi-Official Loose Cannon
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Quote:
You're right...
Smarter than the av-er-age bear...
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03-25-2005
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Federal Agent
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Hey, if they can play I have nothing against it. I'd love to have DJ and CB on the team, but CB won't happen and DJ is not likely to happen (unless he drops like some scouts are now predicting for some reason). |
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03-25-2005
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Senior Member
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03-25-2005
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Semi-Official Loose Cannon
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Quote:
I will point out that in the Cowboys scheme, the defensive line is supposed to keep the blockers off the linebackers, so that they can run to the ball... in that type of system, the ability to take on blockers isn't that critical... and of course, the inability to take on blockers is often tied to inadequate upper body strength... DJ has already put on 10-15 pounds in this offseason, which should translate into better upper body strength... IOW, this is a CORRECTABLE flaw, and you can reasonably expect him to benefit from a full year in an NFL strength program... Quote:
Smarter than the av-er-age bear...
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03-25-2005
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Semi-Official Loose Cannon
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Quote:
Smarter than the av-er-age bear...
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03-25-2005
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I've got moxie
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03-25-2005
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Salary Cap Analyst
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Hey Bear,
Why would you draft another offensive tackle in the seventh round, instead of either a running back or fullback (both needs that you didn't address earlier)? You've already got Willis thrown into the mix with Adams, Tucker, Vollers and Rogers. |
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03-25-2005
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#13 | |||||
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Semi-Official Loose Cannon
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Quote:
In addition, Gudmundsen played LT, while Willis played RT... I believe that the Cowboys would welcome a little more quality depth at LT too... But the big thing is, with his wrestling background, I have a notion that Geir could swing inside to OG too, if needed... so you're talking about a guy who might be able to back up at 2-3 different positions... to me, that's good value in the 7th round... As noted, I wouldn't have a problem with the Philpot kid at FB in the 7th round... and as I've said on numerous occasions, I wouldn't be annoyed if the Boys drafted Will Matthews out of Texas in the 7th round... he has the look of Moose Johnston about him... As for RB, you're right, I haven't filled that hole... I'm not entirely content with my plan for addressing FS either... but there are too many holes to be filled in one offseason, something is gonna get left undone... it's unavoidable, IMO... I could easily see the Cowboys waiting until the final cut before the start of the regular season, then scanning the waiver wire for a veteran backup RB... for whatever reason, RBs don't seem to need as much time to get up to speed in a new offense, and we can hope that Julius won't get injured early in the season, while the new blood is getting used to the Cowboys' offensive scheme...
Smarter than the av-er-age bear...
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03-25-2005
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Semi-Official Loose Cannon
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Smarter than the av-er-age bear...
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03-25-2005
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#15 | |||||
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Member
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I'll wager that at least 6 of them wind up in Dallas. Appreciate it .. if you post em, I'll buy you a beer if/when I make it out to your part of the country (of course, I'd do that even if you don't post em, but this way we can at least pretend there might be something in it for ya ..) BTW .. does anyone know the status of Dallas 7th round pick? Wasn't that conditional to Oakland for DT Chris Cooper? |
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