Great Article on 1st round success rate (Case for DeCastro)

[Galian Beast]

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/stor...isappointments

In terms of drafting a guard/center there is a 42.8 success rate of centers/guards making the pro bowl at least once if they were drafted in the first round (last 10 years).

The only thing higher is safety and tight end.

When you get into multiple pro bowls:

Guard is 42.8% (Center is 28.5%)

The only thing higher is safety (than center)

Guard/Center seems to be the safest pick in general, and even looking at DeCastro he seems to be the safest pick.

With a team that has missed so many times in the last decade, I'd really appreciate us going for the safest pick/best bet.

[fanfromvirginia]

Good point although that makes Barron pretty safe as well....

[THUMPER]

I think that is mainly because Guard, Center, TE, & Safety are not seen as high priority positions like QB, DE, OT, CB, are. So the only time a team will select one in the first round is when they are truly standouts at their position.

QBs will go in the first even when they are not seen as "can't miss" players because a team NEEDS a QB. Same with some of the others. Look at the mock drafts and you will see a lot of QBs, DEs, CBs, & OTs in the first round but only one or two interior linemen and safeties.

It comes down to a perception of need rather than actual talent/ability. It is a rare draft when 3 interior linemen are selected in the first round but not rare at all to see more than 3 DEs taken early.

RBs, WRs, & LBs vary with each draft so it's harder to make a general statement about those positions. You could have a bunch of them go early in one draft and very few the next.

All that said, I think DeCastro should be our pick as he is a rare talent at OG, rather than Barron (whom many mocks have us taking) who is NOT a complete Safety IMO. We can look for DB help in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

[StanleySpadowski]

Interior linemen make the pro bowl on name recognition moreso than any other position. It's only logical that 1st round picks at those positions make the pro bowl at a higher rate.

Plus interior linemen typically go later in the 1st round, which means more successful teams draft them and more successful teams get more pro bowlers, earned or not.

[The Quest for Six]

Originally Posted by StanleySpadowski

Interior linemen make the pro bowl on name recognition moreso than any other position. It's only logical that 1st round picks at those positions make the pro bowl at a higher rate.

Plus interior linemen typically go later in the 1st round, which means more successful teams draft them and more successful teams get more pro bowlers, earned or not.

yeah, Drafting interior linemen after the first round over the last 15 years have worked so well for the cowboys, Decastro is a special player, give me a 12 year probowl type player in the line of a Larry Allen or a Steve Hutchinson, than some project that has failed in the past in later rounds

[Kangaroo]

Originally Posted by The Quest for Six

yeah, Drafting interior linemen after the first round over the last 15 years have worked so well for the cowboys, Decastro is a special player, give me a 12 year probowl type player in the line of a Larry Allen or a Steve Hutchinson, than some project that has failed in the past in later rounds

Castro is not larry Allen or even in the same skill level remember Allen played LT, RT and then guard when he got older

[burmafrd]

Originally Posted by StanleySpadowski

Interior linemen make the pro bowl on name recognition moreso than any other position. It's only logical that 1st round picks at those positions make the pro bowl at a higher rate.

Plus interior linemen typically go later in the 1st round, which means more successful teams draft them and more successful teams get more pro bowlers, earned or not.

Does not make a difference. Bottom line is that DeCastro is probably the safest pick in the draft.

And frankly this name recognition is over blown; yes for older players but how do they get there in the first place?

[BehindEnemyLinez]

<<<<<hoping DeCastro is chosen @ 14...

[InmanRoshi]

Larry Allen got nominated for a Pro Bowl in 2003 when he was continually benched for bad play. Nate Newton made the Pro Bowl in 1999 as journeyman for the Carolina Panthers and was out of the league a year later. Gurode made the Pro Bowl in 2010, was released and couldn't find a team to offer him a starting position.

I'll echo what's already been said, Pro Bowls is a pretty poor measuring stick for interior OL and almost entirely based on name recognition.

[StanleySpadowski]

Originally Posted by InmanRoshi

Larry Allen got nominated for a Pro Bowl in 2003 when he was continually benched for bad play. Nate Newton made the Pro Bowl in 1999 as journeyman for the Carolina Panthers and was out of the league a year later. Gurode made the Pro Bowl in 2010, was released and couldn't find a team to offer him a starting position.

I'll echo what's already been said, Pro Bowls is a pretty poor measuring stick for interior OL and almost entirely based on name recognition.

We're agreeing too much lately. It's starting to scare me a little.

[38 Special]

Originally Posted by InmanRoshi

Larry Allen got nominated for a Pro Bowl in 2003 when he was continually benched for bad play. Nate Newton made the Pro Bowl in 1999 as journeyman for the Carolina Panthers and was out of the league a year later. Gurode made the Pro Bowl in 2010, was released and couldn't find a team to offer him a starting position.

I'll echo what's already been said, Pro Bowls is a pretty poor measuring stick for interior OL and almost entirely based on name recognition.

So Nate Newton went to the pro bowl in 99 because he was a first round interior OL selection?

There's a pretty big disconnect in your logic. Those players earned their name recognition on the field and went to pro bowls late in their careers that weren't justified. They did not go because they were 1st round picks (the current topic of conversation here).

[Tricericon]

Originally Posted by THUMPER

I think that is mainly because Guard, Center, TE, & Safety are not seen as high priority positions like QB, DE, OT, CB, are. So the only time a team will select one in the first round is when they are truly standouts at their position.

Originally Posted by StanleySpadowski

Interior linemen make the pro bowl on name recognition moreso than any other position. It's only logical that 1st round picks at those positions make the pro bowl at a higher rate.

[The Quest for Six]

Originally Posted by fanfromvirginia

Good point although that makes Barron pretty safe as well....

how is Barron a safe pick, he may be the best safety in this draft but what does that say when the safety class in this draft is so weak.....And barron is certainly NO Ed Reed, he's more of a strong safety than a free safety and one could argue that he may be more of a product of playing in a great defense, especially front seven....I wouldn't mind the pick if he's there at 14, but as far as I'm concerned, Decastro is the safe pick in this draft and when jerry is always talking about getting players to help Romo, that's the guy I want, because a great offensive line helps Romo and the offense by running the ball, protecting the quarterback and helps control the clock keeping the defense off the field...First round, Dallas has missed too often by not taking the safe pick, 30 years not taking an offensive line, Smith proved why that idea was flawed, give me more safe picks in the first round, so give me Decastro if he's there...

[fanfromvirginia]

Originally Posted by The Quest for Six

how is Barron a safe pick, he may be the best safety in this draft but what does that say when the safety class in this draft is so weak.....And barron is certainly NO Ed Reed, he's more of a strong safety than a free safety and one could argue that he may be more of a product of playing in a great defense, especially front seven....I wouldn't mind the pick if he's there at 14, but as far as I'm concerned, Decastro is the safe pick in this draft and when jerry is always talking about getting players to help Romo, that's the guy I want, because a great offensive line helps Romo and the offense by running the ball, protecting the quarterback and helps control the clock keeping the defense off the field...First round, Dallas has missed too often by not taking the safe pick, 30 years not taking an offensive line, Smith proved why that idea was flawed, give me more safe picks in the first round, so give me Decastro if he's there...

DeCastro is much safer. I prefer DeCastro. But this info, everything else equal, makes Barron safe compared to most everybody else in the conversation. I only mean relative to most others, which may not be saying that much given how many question marks there are on pretty much everybody in the conversation at this stage (again, minus DeCastro.)

[HoustonFrog]

I put this in an earlier thread...this is for a move up

Food for thought...and I love Barron..at 14

Recent safeties drafted in top 10: Eric Berry (5), LaRon Landry (6), Michael Huff (7), Donte Whitner (8), Sean Taylor (5)...2 are on other teams now. No real busts but take of it what you will. Nothing that reads "game changer."