Success in the draft is lower than you think.

[nathanlt]

The above chart shows 7 categories, >8 Games played, JAG, Depth, Good Starter, Upper Tier, Star, and Superstar.

Claiborne has a 100% chance of playing 8 games or more, 95% chance of being at least a JAG, 90% chance of being depth or better, 62% chance of being at least a good starter or better, 38% of being an upper tier or better, 33% chance of being a star, and only a 10% chance of being a superstar.

This is according to historical #6 picks on the chart. When you look down at round 3 and 4, there's only a 10% chance that any of the guys we picked there will become good starters. What are we complaining about with missed picks in the 3-7th round? If Dallas gets 10 picks in rounds 3-7, they'd average one good starter there. That's nothing to worry about.

I will say this. If the new no-name guys are outworking the present starters, despite the fact that they'll likely be cut, it makes for a productive camp, because the current guys on the roster have a legitimate fear of being out worked. They'll put in the time to show they can't be outdone, and Dallas will have a great team in the end.

For details on the methodology of this chart, go to http://realcavsfans.com/showthread.p...97#post1236897

Very enlightening!

[rynochop]

Interesting. That's why it always cracks me up when I see people live and die over these late round picks.

[jswalker1981]

What is the difference between JAG and Depth? Aren't they the same, or is "Depth" a rotational guy?

[nathanlt]

Originally Posted by jswalker1981

What is the difference between JAG and Depth? Aren't they the same, or is "Depth" a rotational guy?

JAG - Just Another Guy; players who average at least 2.5 in Weighted Career Approximate Value* (WCAV) per season played, or who have managed an otherwise long career.
CLE Example: Chaun Thompson, Lewis Sanders
55% of all players drafted became at least a JAG.

Depth - Represents below average starters or backups who contributed somewhat. Player must average at least a 4 WCAV per season played, or been a regular starter for more than half of his seasons in the league.
CLE Example: Tim Couch, Brodney Pool
28% of all players drafted achieved this tier.

[MidEastBeastL337]

Hmmm... I always considered JAG > Depth.... Jag being just a guy who happens to start or get a few plays here and there... nothing special. Depth being guys who can step in if someone's hurt.

If anything, there should be another tier between Depth and Good starter.. Like a just a starter... that's kind of what I see JAG as.

[nathanlt]

Originally Posted by rynochop

Interesting. That's why it always cracks me up when I see people live and die over these late round picks.

Yes, why get down in the dumps that your favorite 5th round guy wasn't picked. 5th round guys are most likely to play backup in 8 games, and that's about all.

Arguing about whether or not your pet cat will be the lucky 4% that's a good starter? Please.

And, it makes you more likely to trade up with a packaged 5th through 7th guy to get a better percentage chance of a quality starter.

The Claiborne trade swapped a 50% chance at 14 and a 20% chance at 45 for a 62% chance of being a good starter.

However, for being a superstar, it swapped a 5% and 0% chance for a 10% chance superstar. I'm hoping for winning those odds, but I'm not counting on it.

[burmafrd]

I would have been OK with using all our 3rd and later picks (except the comp of course) to trade up into the second round for a guy if we had seen someone we truly believed in there.

[burmafrd]

Originally Posted by nathanlt

Yes, why get down in the dumps that your favorite 5th round guy wasn't picked. 5th round guys are most likely to play backup in 8 games, and that's about all.

Arguing about whether or not your pet cat will be the lucky 4% that's a good starter? Please.

And, it makes you more likely to trade up with a packaged 5th through 7th guy to get a better percentage chance of a quality starter.

The Claiborne trade swapped a 50% chance at 14 and a 20% chance at 45 for a 62% chance of being a good starter.

However, for being a superstar, it swapped a 5% and 0% chance for a 10% chance superstar. I'm hoping for winning those odds, but I'm not counting on it.

if you are just going by numbers by trading up you increased your chances of getting a superstar by 100%.

[RamziD]

I have to say, I was really happy with our first 2 selections. Making CB our strength already improves our passrush, so adding Crawford who can push the pocket in front of Anthony Spencer will improve it that much more.

The only pick that frustrated me at first was Johnson in the 4th. Guy no one has heard of who initially some were saying would start the year on the PUP. Now some are staying he could win out one of our starting safety jobs and he'll be ready for training camp. The 5th round receiver has a great skill set for a slot receiver and speed to use if he makes a guy miss.

So, overall, who know into which tier each player will ultimately fall, but I'm glad with the type of guys (RKGs) that we selected and happy that they're Cowboys!

[cowboy_ron]

Dallas has done very well since being in the league at drafting unheard ofs, and small school players......the eagles draft looks like a mock they took from ESPN...chasing the name players...I feel our FO put a lot of time and effort into this draft.