How far does the offense have to go? - Dallas Cowboys Forum

Bluefin · 07-20-2004

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Despite Dallas’ astonishing turnaround last year, both Jones and Parcells knew the Cowboys still needed to improve on an offense that ranked 15th in total offense and 21st in scoring.

That scoring ranking is for the entire team, not just the offense.

However, the offense must put more points on the board this year and I believe they will.

The question is, how big of a jump do they need with one of the best defenses in the game by their side?

Both of the Super Bowl teams got there in large part to their defenses last year, New England averaged 18.69 points as an offense (21.8 as a team) while ranking 17th in yards and Carolina averaged 18.25 points as an offense (20.3 as a team) while ranking 16th in yards.

Dallas averaged 16.56 points on offense (18.1 as a team) and ranked 15th in yards.

I do not see the Grand Canyon in front of the Cowboys when it comes to making the jump to having a contending offense, I see a small stream.

How hard will it be to surpass what Carolina did?

The Cats kicked 32 field goals, scored 28 offensive touchdowns and 5 non-offensive touchdowns.

They did it with the 8th ranked defense gathering 40 sacks, 26 take aways and holding offenses to 19.0 points per game (10th).

The Cowboys kicked 23 field goals, scored 28 offensive touchdowns and 3 non-offensive touchdowns.

They did it with the number one ranked defense notching 32 sacks, 25 take aways and limiting offenses to 16.2 points per game (2nd).

That's a difference of 27 points on offense and 41 points overall.

But the biggest challenge will likely come from within the NFC East and the three time conference championship loser Philadelphia Eagles.

Philly averaged 22 points on offense (23.4 as a team) and ranked 18th in yards.

The Birds kicked 24 field goals, scored 40 offensive touchdowns and three non-offensive touchdowns.

They did it with the 20th ranked defense forcing 38 sacks, 26 take aways and holding offenses to 17.9 points per game (7th).

That's a difference of 87 points on offense (5.44 per game).

Getting the offense up to Philly's scoring level is more of a challenge, but we're still talking about less than one touchdown a game as the difference.

Dallas accomplished what they did with an imperfect offense.

Quincy Carter was a first time 16 game starter in his third new system and he threw too many interceptions.

The scheme was to be based around a running threat that was all too often absent and defenses played how they wanted to.

Their was no possession receiver to lean on, rookie TE Jason Witten assumed the role as best he could late in the season.

The offensive line was patched together with a couple of reserves and two starters playing below the level expected of them.

Things could get a lot better this year and they don't have to be dramatically better in most cases for the team to improve.

The most important item is for Carter to cut down on his interceptions.

And I'm not asking for the world, just get the count to 15 or lower, less than one per game, a reduction of 6 from last year.

Along with this, give me 4 more touchdowns to clear the 20 barrier.

That should help oodles.

The rushing game accounted for 11 touchdowns, only ten teams had fewer and both of the Super Bowl participants were among them.

How about 5 more for a total of 16?

Instead of 23 field goals, I'll take 25. Nothing major.

Where would that leave the offense?

That'd be 37 offensive touchdowns and 25 field goals compared to last year's 28 offensive touchdowns and 23 field goals.

Offensive points per game would jump to 20.88 over last year's 16.56.

And that isn't factoring in any points provided via special teams returns or defensive scores.

This kind of improvement doesn't call for a 4000 yard passer, a 1500 rusher or a pair of 1000 yard receivers.

Nothing so drastic.

Just basic progression.

Cut down on the bad plays and increase the good plays.

Is this too optimistic with the new additions and much needed offensive continuity?

LaTunaNostra · 07-20-2004

BF, you did some research there and I am not overlooking it. But what was our third down efficiency rating as compared with NE and Carolina? Making third downs and sustaining drives, that's always my gripe.

Carolina kicked 32 fgs to our 23. That's a big diff.

**ABQCOWBOY** · 07-20-2004

IMO, there are two ways to play offense. One is to always keep the defense on it's heels. Keep them guessing, be unpredictable. The other is to execute perfectly. Doesn't matter if people know and understand what we do. Execute perfectly and it is unstopable. We do neither one. I think the offense can be much better with just a little bit of work but at some point, the players have to execute. Offensive line play is key. If we get that, there's a real chance for some good things. If we don't, we are doomed. TOs on offense and defense need to basically reverse themselves. We need a pass rush and we need to be able to effectively beat the blitz. This will help keep us out of situational play calling. Sounds simple.

**BrAinPaiNt** · 07-20-2004

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Originally Posted by ABQCOWBOY

IMO, there are two ways to play offense. One is to always keep the defense on it's heels. Keep them guessing, be unpredictable. The other is to execute perfectly. Doesn't matter if people know and understand what we do. Execute perfectly and it is unstopable. We do neither one. I think the offense can be much better with just a little bit of work but at some point, the players have to execute. Offensive line play is key. If we get that, there's a real chance for some good things. If we don't, we are doomed. TOs on offense and defense need to basically reverse themselves. We need a pass rush and we need to be able to effectively beat the blitz. This will help keep us out of situational play calling. Sounds simple.

Along with executing it perfectly...you still have to have the players to do it.

Remember we would run the same old plays over and over and just dared people to stop us....they knew what was coming but could not stop us.

It started changing with Switzer vs the eagles with the back to back runs by EZ22 that did not get the first IMO.

Shortly after that the wanted teh offense to change....IMO it was never the idea of the offense getting old, or not being ran to perfection...it was the start of the steady decline of weak drafts in replacing good players over the years.

Erik_H · 07-20-2004

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrAinPaiNt

It started changing with Switzer vs the eagles with the back to back runs by EZ22 that did not get the first IMO.

It was actually back-to-back-to-back runs. There was some kind of wierd thing that happenned that actually gave us an extra shot. Personally, one of my worst memories as a Cowboy fan. It sticks out because I'd traveled down to Philly for my first ever game. Freeziing cold and that BS just killed me.
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Something else that I noticed is that the Eagles Defensive stats look pretty good to be ranked 20th.

TheSkaven · 07-20-2004

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Originally Posted by Erik_H

It was actually back-to-back-to-back runs. There was some kind of wierd thing that happenned that actually gave us an extra shot. Personally, one of my worst memories as a Cowboy fan. It sticks out because I'd traveled down to Philly for my first ever game. Freeziing cold and that BS just killed me.
--
Something else that I noticed is that the Eagles Defensive stats look pretty good to be ranked 20th.

That pain all melted away for me when we beat them in the playoffs on route to our 3rd Superbowl of the 90's.

**ABQCOWBOY** · 07-20-2004

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrAinPaiNt

Along with executing it perfectly...you still have to have the players to do it.

Remember we would run the same old plays over and over and just dared people to stop us....they knew what was coming but could not stop us.

It started changing with Switzer vs the eagles with the back to back runs by EZ22 that did not get the first IMO.

Shortly after that the wanted teh offense to change....IMO it was never the idea of the offense getting old, or not being ran to perfection...it was the start of the steady decline of weak drafts in replacing good players over the years.

I agree. In either scenario, you have to have the personel to run the offense. That is a given. In the skilled positions, I think that most are in place. I believe we have talent at WR, the only real questions in my mind are, will we have the speed to stretch the field and will our WRs play up to there talent levels? On the OLine, I believe we have the two key elements in place with LT and Center. I will admit that Center is still a question mark but I think Johnston will be good. The concern, and to me it's the greatest concern on the team, is the right side. Gotta have at least satisfactory production from that side of the line or were done. JJ with a good supporting cast should do fine so long as the OL is there. QB, of course is the lynch pin. Everybody has there own opinion and so I won't go into the rest but suffice to say that if QB doesn't play well, it doesn't matter how well the rest of the team plays.

Throw in a good kicking game and we could be NE. Again, sounds real easy but hardly ever works out that way.

blindzebra · 07-20-2004

The offense needs to improve in the redzone. Dictate distance on 3rd down, i.e. 3rd in 2 instead of 3rd and 7. Limit turnovers on first or second down and when we are on the opponent's side of the 50.

The first is on the entire offensive unit. The second is mainly OL and RBs getting a better YPC. The last is mostly on the QB.

**BrAinPaiNt** · 07-20-2004

Very Good read.

A couple of things that need to be changed on offense....If QC rolls out (because of the play) and does not have a good look at an open WR...then tuck the ball and run (if he can get any positive yardage)...or throw the ball away from the defenders....it seems most of his INTs is him rolling out or throwing on the run trying to make something happen.

That little change right there IMO would be huge in some of the turnovers.

Also QC needs to work on holding onto the ball....he fumbled more then he should have and even if he recovers the fumble...normally that will be a loss of yards and a wasted down.

Now this is not a rip on him...just something that needs to be worked on.

All along we were told that his mobility was something that JJ liked....but to me his worst mistakes normally happen when he is on the run to thrown or when he runs to get positive yardage....there has been times that he takes off to run and holds the ball way away from his body....that scares me.
I have noticed that he did work on that some...after initially deciding to take off after the first few steps he then tucks it.

Once again not rips on QC...but some things he needs to work on, and the coaching staff needs to work on plays that were thought to be his strength..but has turned out to be his weakness IMO.

Now another thing that is a question mark...Will Julius pan out....will he break a few plays to make the D respect him. I think even if the O-Line is shaky...if J.Jones can make a few plays a game the D with have to respect him and help open up the passing game some.

With Anderson, Glenn, Whitten, Campbell and Johnson...we should have the options...not even counting J.Jones and AB in the mix.

Bluefin · 07-20-2004

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Originally Posted by LaTunaNostra

BF, you did some research there and I am not overlooking it. But what was our third down efficiency rating as compared with NE and Carolina? Making third downs and sustaining drives, that's always my gripe.

Dallas converted 36.5% of their third downs for a 17th ranking in the NFL.

New England coverted 37% of their third downs to tie for 14th.

Carolina converted 35.6% of their third downs to land 20th overall.

Philadelphia converted 36.3% of their third downs to land one spot behind the Cowboys in 18th place.

Ten teams converted more than 40% of their third down attempts, led by Seattle at a 46.8% clip.

With a second year in the system, a more elusive lead runner, a true possession receiver on the outside and an emerging possession threat at tight end, I'm confident Dallas can get over the 40% hurdle on converting third downs.

Quote:

Carolina kicked 32 fgs to our 23. That's a big diff.

It's an important difference because the Panthers sustained drives and added points while giving their defense a breather.

Despite mounting nine more scoring drives than the Cowboys, the Panthers still turned the ball over more than Dallas did.

Carolina had 26 take aways and 31 give aways for a -5 differential (tie for 25th place).

Dallas had 25 take aways and 29 give aways for a -4 differential (tie for 22nd place).

New England had 41 take aways and 24 give aways for a +17 differential (2nd place).

Philly had 26 take aways and 22 give aways for a +4 differential (8th place).

13 teams were on the positive side in turnover differential, Dallas needs to become one of them this year.

But it may be easy to make up that difference if the offense (& team) improves over last year's version.

Carolina's nine field goals amounted to 27 points, a number much easier to overtake than the Eagles and their plus 12 advantage in offensive touchdowns (84 points).

Another area to look at is time of possession.

Even with offensive problems galore, the Cowboys finished fourth in TOP thanks in large part to the defense forcing so many three and outs.

Dallas was 4th averaging 32:34 (Denver was tops at 33:53).

New England was 11th with 30:50.

Carolina was 13th with 30:27.

Philadelphia was 26th with 28:17.

Now, what happens if the running game is better and the possession receivers help Carter convert more third downs?

Number one in TOP with a bullet, IMO.

**ABQCOWBOY** · 07-20-2004

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluefin

Dallas converted 36.5% of their third downs for a 17th ranking in the NFL.

New England coverted 37% of their third downs to tie for 14th.

Carolina converted 35.6% of their third downs to land 20th overall.

Philadelphia converted 36.3% of their third downs to land one spot behind the Cowboys in 18th place.

Ten teams converted more than 40% of their third down attempts, led by Seattle at a 46.8% clip.

With a second year in the system, a more elusive lead runner, a true possession receiver on the outside and an emerging possession threat at tight end, I'm confident Dallas can get over the 40% hurdle on converting third downs.

It's an important difference because the Panthers sustained drives and added points while giving their defense a breather.

[View Full Quote]

The key to good offense is scoring. We don't do that well. Until we get better at it, we won't be a good offense. Really no getting around that.

Doomsday101 · 07-20-2004

Dallas has a ways to go before they will be considered a top offensive team. I really do not care what NE or Car did, getting caught up in what other teams do and trying to emulate them in my opinion is not how you get better. Dallas has to show a lot more consistency in offense and do a much better job in the red zone

Bluefin · 07-20-2004

Quote:

Originally Posted by ABQCOWBOY

The key to good offense is scoring. We don't do that well. Until we get better at it, we won't be a good offense. Really no getting around that.

Scoring is the bottom line.

And the offense should be better at it this year.

If the returners break more big plays and the defense forces more turnovers, it will only make scoring points that much easier for the offense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doomsday101

Dallas has a ways to go before they will be considered a top offensive team. I really do not care what NE or Car did, getting caught up in what other teams do and trying to emulate them in my opinion is not how you get better. Dallas has to show a lot more consistency in offense and do a much better job in the red zone

The reason for showing Carolina and New England is because both of the Super Bowl teams relied on their defenses the same as Dallas.

It isn't like the team needs the offense to carry them to victory and make up for an absentee defense.

And I don't think Dallas has that far to go on offense.

Parcells is going to continue running the ball this year and I don't expect Julius Jones to average 3.5 only yards per carry or to only break three runs of 20 yards or more.

Defenses will have to be aware of Jones and that should allow the offense to fuction the way Parcells wants it to, defenses will no longer be calling the shots.

That will make all the diference in the world.

And all I'm looking for is Dallas to improve over last year, they don't have to become an offensive juggernaut to move from their 15th place finish to inside the top ten.

Will it be so hard to improve on 11 rushing touchdowns, 17 passing touchdowns and 23 field goals?

The offense managed that with a suspect quarterback, a joke of a running game, no lead receiver and a patchwork offensive line.

Special teams did almost nothing to win field position and the defense, as good as it was, didn't force many turnovers to help the offense out.

How hard will it be to improve on those things with this staff, most of the players in their second year under Parcells and new additions via free agency and the draft.

Parcells' teams have always gotten better in year two.

I expect nothing less from this group.

junk · 07-20-2004

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluefin

The offense managed that with a suspect quarterback, a joke of a running game, no lead receiver and a patchwork offensive line.

Hater. Just Kidding, I couldn't resist.

I actually agree with everything you had to say. Great post.