SI: PERLOFF: Five Potential Busts in the 2007 Draft

[Cbz40]

4/16/2007 03:04:00 PM
Five Potential Busts in the 2007 Draft



Chris Houston shot up draft boards after an impressive performance at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Kevin Terrell/Wireimage


SI.com's Peter King says teams are very nervous about paying overrated first-round prospects this year. Here are five players I think have a high probability of being busts:

JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU (FILM ROOM): If Russell goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, No. 2 to the Lions or No. 3 to the Browns, he'll be placed in a position to lose that might be hard to climb out of. And there are still lingering questions about his passion for the game.

Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas (FILM ROOM): Anderson appears to be on his way up on draft boards around the NFL, but he may be benefiting from the lack of can't-miss defensive prospects in the first round. Anderson had one good year at Arkansas and is still raw.

Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas (FILM ROOM): Houston has shot up draft boards since running a 4.32 40 at the combine, but there are several scouts who doubt his college production warrants a first-round selection.

Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (FILM ROOM): Another possible workout wonder whose impressive physical skills didn't translate into consistent production at Miami. Olsen could go in the first half of the first round.

Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin (FILM ROOM): This isn't a judgment on Thomas per se, but teams have had trouble evaluating elite left tackles the last few years. Robert Gallery was the No. 2 overall pick in 2004 and no one could have imagined he wouldn't pan out. Meanwhile, Marcus McNeill, who looks like a perennial All-Pro, fell to No. 50 overall last year. I think there's a lot of intangibles at this position and even though I'm probably alone on this one, I don't buy Thomas' "can't-miss" label.

Let me know who you think will be a bust.

[newlander]

All make sense except Thomas who I've seen play and was very impressed with. Add Alan Branch to the list. Low motor, poor work habits and overweight to boot.

[CrazyCowboy]

Originally Posted by newlander

All make sense except Thomas who I've seen play and was very impressed with. Add Alan Branch to the list. Low motor, poor work habits and overweight to boot.

Yea, I have read numerous negative reports on Branch. But, dang that guy is huge.

[newlander]

Lots of guys are huge and never amount to anything. Think: Aaron Gibson, former Wisconsin guard who Detroit drafted and ended up in Dallas and washed out.Seriously though, the guy is so overrated it isn't even funny.

[BigDave95]

Wow. Petey really is hating on my Hogs this morning...

[THUMPER]

Originally Posted by newlander

Lots of guys are huge and never amount to anything. Think: Aaron Gibson, former Wisconsin guard who Detroit drafted and ended up in Dallas and washed out.Seriously though, the guy is so overrated it isn't even funny.

Gibson is now playing in the Arena League. So is WR Troy Edwards who was the #13 pick in the 1999 draft. How far the mighty have fallen.

[jobberone]

Originally Posted by Cbz40

4/16/2007 03:04:00 PM
Five Potential Busts in the 2007 Draft



Chris Houston shot up draft boards after an impressive performance at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Kevin Terrell/Wireimage


SI.com's Peter King says teams are very nervous about paying overrated first-round prospects this year. Here are five players I think have a high probability of being busts:

[View Full Quote]JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU (FILM ROOM): If Russell goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, No. 2 to the Lions or No. 3 to the Browns, he'll be placed in a position to lose that might be hard to climb out of. And there are still lingering questions about his passion for the game.

Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas (FILM ROOM): Anderson appears to be on his way up on draft boards around the NFL, but he may be benefiting from the lack of can't-miss defensive prospects in the first round. Anderson had one good year at Arkansas and is still raw.

Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas (FILM ROOM): Houston has shot up draft boards since running a 4.32 40 at the combine, but there are several scouts who doubt his college production warrants a first-round selection.

Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (FILM ROOM): Another possible workout wonder whose impressive physical skills didn't translate into consistent production at Miami. Olsen could go in the first half of the first round.

Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin (FILM ROOM): This isn't a judgment on Thomas per se, but teams have had trouble evaluating elite left tackles the last few years. Robert Gallery was the No. 2 overall pick in 2004 and no one could have imagined he wouldn't pan out. Meanwhile, Marcus McNeill, who looks like a perennial All-Pro, fell to No. 50 overall last year. I think there's a lot of intangibles at this position and even though I'm probably alone on this one, I don't buy Thomas' "can't-miss" label.

Let me know who you think will be a bust.

Russell has less than a 50% chance of being a bust or the same as other highly touted QBs picked overall #1.

Anderson has bust all over him. He should go in the second as he's not strong enough, hasn't fully developed, is raw, has poor technique and only one year of production at a #1 level. Since pass rushers are so coveted tho he's going to go at the market rate or level. He's by no means a finished product and is a risk. But one with a lot of potential.

Houston is about the same with more production. He's less risky IMO but still a little raw. But he's fast. Real fast. So he goes in the first; most likely.

Olsen goes in the first based on size and speed. He's a little raw also. He's worth a low first round pick IMO. There aren't any better TEs in the draft.

Thomas has a 60-70% chance of success in the league. He should not only be a starter but a dominant one. He has the least amount of bust potential along with G Adams as anyone in the draft.

JMO

[theogt]

Jamaal Anderson is about the surest thing you can get in the draft. Big, strong, athletic. Good character. Extremely productive in college. He's a much better prospect than Carriker or Adams.

His only knock is that he's coming out early. But with 2 years of very high production, staying another year would be a waste.

[jobberone]

Originally Posted by theogt

Jamaal Anderson is about the surest thing you can get in the draft. Big, strong, athletic. Good character. Extremely productive in college. He's a much better prospect than Carriker or Adams.

His only knock is that he's coming out early. But with 2 years of very high production, staying another year would be a waste.

He played in 36 games at Arkansas starting 19 times. He shared time at DE for the first half of 2005 and had a great 2006. He's got one great year not two.

He's not fully developed. He needs to fill out. He needs work on technique and how to disengage. He cannot rely on quickness only in the NFL to get to the QB. He's not the top pass rusher out there.

He won't be around when we pick most likely. If we get close to Moss then he be a great pick for us even if we have to trade up a few spots. He could challenge for the spot opposite Ware IMO. He's only a year plus from recovering from a chronic staph infection. He could easily gain 20 lbs and still play opposite Ware. At 6-7 and 270 lbs with his quickness and speed he'd compare to Adams in this years draft. He's already been likened to Rice and Kearse.

Anderson is likely out of our range but Moss might be available although I suspect he will go before 22. They're both comparable as DEs. Moss is projected to be able to play LB and did although at a lower weight than 250.

[theogt]

Originally Posted by jobberone

He played in 36 games at Arkansas starting 19 times. He shared time at DE for the first half of 2005 and had a great 2006. He's got one great year not two.

Despite splitting time his sophomore year he had very impressive numbers. Not two great years, but one very impressive year and one phenomenal year. His sophomore year production was almost on par with Adams' junior year despite Adams having more playing time. Anderson's junior year ('06) was just unreal. His stats were much more impressive than Adams' junior year production (or senior year production for that matter). But the stats don't even begin to reflect the level at which he played. He certainly fits the bill of the cliche "looked like a man amongst boys on the field."

He's not fully developed. He needs to fill out. He needs work on technique and how to disengage. He cannot rely on quickness only in the NFL to get to the QB. He's not the top pass rusher out there.

Which is scary, because he could compete at a high level now, but will only get better. My biggest fear is the Redskins grabbing him at 6. He'd give Colombo fits for years.

He won't be around when we pick most likely. If we get close to Moss then he be a great pick for us even if we have to trade up a few spots. He could challenge for the spot opposite Ware IMO. He's only a year plus from recovering from a chronic staph infection. He could easily gain 20 lbs and still play opposite Ware. At 6-7 and 270 lbs with his quickness and speed he'd compare to Adams in this years draft. He's already been likened to Rice and Kearse.

Moss scares me. He's extremely weak and it shows on the field. He can't disengage blockers and relies solely on his speed, which isn't too terribly impressive. He's actually two years removed from the staph infections, which means he should have already added a significant amount of weight. If he can add more, that's great, but I'd be wary. I thought Lawson would be able to add the weight, but we'll see. Sometimes they simply can't do it, no matter whether they appear to have the frame to add it.

Anderson is likely out of our range but Moss might be available although I suspect he will go before 22. They're both comparable as DEs. Moss is projected to be able to play LB and did although at a lower weight than 250.

I can't really say their comparable. Anderson is an elite prospect. Given another year in college with equal production, he would be a consensus top 3 pick. Moss was never getting to that level, staph infection or not.

[jobberone]

Originally Posted by theogt

Despite splitting time his sophomore year he had very impressive numbers. Not two great years, but one very impressive year and one phenomenal year. His sophomore year production was almost on par with Adams' junior year despite Adams having more playing time. Anderson's junior year ('06) was just unreal. His stats were much more impressive than Adams' junior year production (or senior year production for that matter). But the stats don't even begin to reflect the level at which he played. He certainly fits the bill of the cliche "looked like a man amongst boys on the field."

Which is scary, because he could compete at a high level now, but will only get better. My biggest fear is the Redskins grabbing him at 6. He'd give Colombo fits for years.

[View Full Quote]Moss scares me. He's extremely weak and it shows on the field. He can't disengage blockers and relies solely on his speed, which isn't too terribly impressive. He's actually two years removed from the staph infections, which means he should have already added a significant amount of weight. If he can add more, that's great, but I'd be wary. I thought Lawson would be able to add the weight, but we'll see. Sometimes they simply can't do it, no matter whether they appear to have the frame to add it.

I can't really say their comparable. Anderson is an elite prospect. Given another year in college with equal production, he would be a consensus top 3 pick. Moss was never getting to that level, staph infection or not.

Moss went from 210 to 250 after getting supplementation by IV! He injured his pelvis as a senior in HS. A shot started the infection which was indolent. It wasn't discovered until 2005! The kid slowly melted down for 4 years. It takes more than a year to get all that muscle and stamina back and more than a little time to treat that kind of bone infection.

So he had less than a year to rehab for the 06 year of football. And he was still dominant at times. Look at some of his games.

I think both these kids have yet to hit their peak. I think it's unfair to think Anderson will improve more than Moss tho. Both have high ceilings. Moss has shown more determination than Anderson to date. Whether or not that means anything is uncertain I'll admit but I think it's a pro for Moss to overcome his problem and a negative for Anderson to not work as hard as he could.

Spencer is a more finished product. He'll likely be available at 22. Anderson likely won't. Moss might be. Moss and Anderson have higher ceilings. I'd take Moss out of those three but would take any of them at 22.

[theogt]

Originally Posted by jobberone

Moss went from 210 to 250 after getting supplementation by IV! He injured his pelvis as a senior in HS. A shot started the infection which was indolent. It wasn't discovered until 2005! The kid slowly melted down for 4 years. It takes more than a year to get all that muscle and stamina back and more than a little time to treat that kind of bone infection.

So he had less than a year to rehab for the 06 year of football. And he was still dominant at times. Look at some of his games.

Actually he was back up to 250 by the end of his sophomore year. So he's been at 250 for more than a year now. He had the entire offseason before the 2006 season to add even more weight, but he didn't.

I think both these kids have yet to hit their peak. I think it's unfair to think Anderson will improve more than Moss tho. Both have high ceilings. Moss has shown more determination than Anderson to date. Whether or not that means anything is uncertain I'll admit but I think it's a pro for Moss to overcome his problem and a negative for Anderson to not work as hard as he could.

Well, the thing is, Anderson is so much better than Moss right now, that Moss would have to improve significantly to even get close to Anderson. They can certainly both improve, but Moss won't be reaching Anderson's level of play any time soon.

Spencer is a more finished product. He'll likely be available at 22. Anderson likely won't. Moss might be. Moss and Anderson have higher ceilings. I'd take Moss out of those three but would take any of them at 22.

Spencer is a more finished product, yes. Moss may have higher potential. Then again, he may be a giant bust. I don't think he'll be picked as high as everyone thinks he is. I think he got a lot of hype because of the National Championship, but is more of a project like a Brian Robison. I wouldn't take Moss for our 2nd pick.

Check out what Scott Wright recently said about Moss:

Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida - Most have Moss in the Top 21 picks and he could still very well go that high but there are also a lot of questions marks surrounding him which could lead to a Draft Day freefall. In fact, Moss has three things working against him: Durability, Character and Size. Those are all pretty significant red flags and while you can forgive a lot of sins to land a guy who can get after the quarterback that is a lot to overcome. Most aren't talking about Moss as a guy who could be slipping but I would not be at all surprised to see him fall to the latter portion of round one or even round two when all is said and done. Keep an eye on this one.

[theebs]

Rick gosselin called greg olsen A poor mans dallas clark and said this is the worst tight end class he has ever seen.

[AbeBeta]

How about this.

Potential Bust List: Every damn player in the draft.

[Kangaroo]

Originally Posted by abersonc

How about this.

Potential Bust List: Every damn player in the draft.

Is any one that is drafted in the last 2 rounds that does not make it a bust. The odds are against you to make it. Heck if you become a productive special teamer and backup that is a great pick spent on the late rounds see nate Jones on Dallas Roster.