Ranking the Rookies--Fantasy wise
I think this is a great year to trade down unless you can get Cadillac Williams. There aren't any sure things beyond him. In fact, this turned out to be an ugly, ugly crop if you're looking for sure things. A lot of guys fell in strange situations. For example, Rodgers to GB, Benson to CHI, Edwards to CLE, and Williams to DET. These weren't all unexpected, but they aren't ideal for dynasty purposes (with the possible exception of Rodgers to GB).
Anyhow, these are my rankings . They're subject to change in the next few days and they probably will.
1. Cadillac Williams - He's the easy #1 pick. He's the best back in the draft and he has a starting role from day one. Did anyone notice when the crew had Tommy Tuberville on the draft show? They said something like, "Tommy, you must be proud to have two running backs in the top five." Tuberville answered by talking about how surprised he was that Caddy "fell" to #5. He talked about Caddy for quite a while before finally moving on to Brown and only saying a few things about him.
2. Cedric Benson - I put him at #2, but I have to admit that drafting him this high would give me the willies. There are a lot of risk factors here. First off, Thomas Jones is a decent back. Secondly, this is the Chicago Bears we're talking about. I trust their talent evaluation like I trust politicians to tell the truth. Finally, Benson is somewhat risky due to his lack of ideal measurables and his questionable elusiveness.
3. Ronnie Brown - Everyone has been slobbering over Brown since the combine, but I'm not buying the hype. He has stiff hips and he can't create yards on his own. It's true that he runs hard and catches well, but I think he's a major bust risk due to his lack of explosiveness. Everyone is so enamored with his 40 time that they've failed to notice his sub par performance in all the other pertinent RB drills. Still, he's a high first round RB with a starting role from day one. I've been wrong about players in the past and I'm sure Iit'll happen again.
4. JJ Arrington - This is where it gets really ugly. I don't like Arrington much from a talent perspective, but he makes sense as a draft pick here. He's going to be playing on a good offense and he should be the starter. Seeing as how any highly-drafted RB who has a few good games immediately carries tremendous value in dynasty leagues, Arrington makes a lot of sense here. If you're not sold on his skills then you can almost certainly move him and get something good in return.
5. Troy Williamson - Williamson has major bust potential, but he also offers great upside. I know Edwards and Williams were more highly-regarded, but they're also risky. There wasn't a lot to separate these three in my mind, which is why I'm picking the guy with the best situation rather than the guy with the best talent (Williams).
6. Braylon Edwards - His situation still depends on others around him. I think he can excel with a healthy Winslow and people may approach him with caution because Dilfer throwing him the rock
7. Mike Williams - I like his talent, but there are too many mouths to feed in Detroit
8. Mark Clayton - Great player, but he looks like a career #2 to me. Baltimore is not a good place to be a #2.
9. Roddy White - I like White's deep speed and size. He has some attitude issues, but the opportunity is there for him to be the team's #1 WR very soon.
10.Matt Jones- Worth a gamble here over the 2nd tier rb's
Other intriguing picks:
Maurice Clarett - I always thought Bell was overrated. Clarett could excel in Denver if given the chance.
Eric Shelton - He's not the type of player that I draft, but he offers some potential in Carolina
Reggie Brown - Could be Philly's #1 in a couple years, although he seems more like a career #2
Ryan Moats - Might not be powerful enough to carry the load, but is a nice player