Kiper Invitational: A post draft review... - Dallas Cowboys Forum

Risen Star · 05-06-2012

I like to take a look back on our mock draft after the actual draft has taken place and see who got value with the players they picked where they picked them. Does this exercise prove or mean much? Not really, but it's fun to do.

So here we go. If you took a player after he was taken in the draft you get a plus grade for that player. You take the guy at 10 and he actually goes 4th overall, that's a plus 6. On the flip side, any players taken before they went in the draft gets you a minus grade for that player. Then we add them all up and get an overall value score.

There were 253 players selected in the 2012 NFL Draft. Any players picked in our mock who went undrafted were assigned the 254th draft slot.

In the 4 or 5 years I've done this, a total plus grade for a class is rare. Maybe 2 or 3 guys per year. It's hard to do.

Here are this year's results.

-

1) Kansas City Chiefs (Risen Star)
1(12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama - 3rd - plus 9
2(64) Kendall Reyes DT Connecticut - 49th - plus 15
3(76) Brock Osweiler QB Arizona St. - 57th - plus 19
3(95) Trumaine Johnson CB Montana - 65th - plus 30
4(106) Mitchell Schwartz T California - 37th - plus 69
Added 2013 3rd Round Pick (N.Y. Giants)

Overall: plus 142

-

2) Atlanta Falcons (hipfake08)
2(55) Chandler Jones DE Syracuse - 21st - plus 34
3(85) Ladarius Green TE Louisiana-Lafayette - 110th - minus 25

Overall: plus 9

-

3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (dez_for_prez)
1(5) Morris Claiborne CB LSU - 6th - minus 1
2(36) Kevin Zeitler G Wisconsin - 27th - plus 9
3(69) Sean Spence OLB Miami - 86th - minus 17

Overall: minus 9

-

4) Cleveland Browns (TheCount)
1(2) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor - 2nd - even
1(22) Kendall Wright WR Baylor - 20th - plus 2
3(68) Orson Charles TE Georgia - 116th - minus 48
4(118) Dwight Bentley CB Louisiana-Lafayette - 85th - plus 33

Overall: minus 15

-

5) San Francisco 49ers (jterrell)
1(30) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois - 26th - plus 4
2(62) Nick Toon WR Wisconsin - 122nd - minus 60
3(93) Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma St. - 22nd - plus 71
4(125) Shaun Prater CB Iowa - 156th - minus 31

Overall: minus 16

-

6) Arizona Cardinals (CCBoy)
1(13) Jonathan Martin T Stanford - 42nd - minus 29
3(81) Brandon Taylor S LSU - 73rd - plus 8
4(112) Keenan Robinson OLB Texas - 119th - minus 7

Overall: minus 28

-

7) Denver Broncos (cowboyjoe)
1(25) Dontari Poe DT Memphis - 11th - plus 14
2(57) Brandon Boykin CB Georgia - 123rd - minus 66
3(88) T.Y. Hilton WR Florida International - 92nd - minus 4
4(120) Evan Rodriguez FB Temple - 111th - plus 9

Overall: minus 47

-

8) Pittsburgh Steelers (Zaxor)
1(24) Dont'a Hightower ILB Alabama - 25th - minus 1
2(56) Harrison Smith S Notre Dame - 29th - plus 27
3(87) Marcus Forston DT Miami - 254th - minus 167
4(119) Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati - 50th - plus 69

Overall: minus 72

-

9) Dallas Cowboys (Dough Boy)
1(14) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama - 17th - minus 3
2(45) Vinny Curry DE Marshall - 59th - minus 14
3(82) Michael Brewster C Ohio St. - 254th - minus 172
4(113) Derek Wolfe DT Cincinnati - 36th - plus 77

Overall: minus 112

-

10) Philadelphia Eagles (supercowboy8)
1(15) Devon Still DT Penn St. - 53rd - minus 38
1(17) Luke Kuechly ILB Boston College - 9th - plus 8
3(77) Markelle Martin S Oklahoma St. - 190th - minus 113
3(84) Brandon Brooks G Miami (Oh.) - 76th - plus 8
4(114) Tony Bergstrom T Utah - 95th - plus 19
Lost 2013 4th Round Pick (Cincinnati)

Overall: minus 116

-

10) New Orleans Saints (TheDallasDon)
2(59) Ronnell Lewis OLB Oklahoma - 125th - minus 66
3(90) Mike Martin DT Michigan - 82nd - plus 8
4(122) Chris Givens WR Wake Forest - 96th - plus 26
4(126) Audie Cole ILB North Carolina St. - 210th - minus 84
Lost 2013 4th Round Pick (New England)
Lost 2013 7th Round Pick (New England)

Overall: minus 116

-

12) Carolina Panthers (ABQCowboy)
1(8) David DeCastro G Stanford - 24th - minus 16
2(42) Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers - 83rd - minus 41
4(103) Jonathan Massaquoi DE Troy - 164th - minus 61

Overall: minus 118

-

13) Detroit Lions (Dash28)
1(23) Peter Konz C Wisconsin - 55th - minus 32
2(54) Lavonte David OLB Nebraska - 58th - minus 4
3(86) Jake Bequette DE Arkansas - 90th - minus 4
4(117) Matt McCants T UAB - 201st - minus 84

Overall: minus 124

-

13) Seattle Seahawks (garrett316)
1(11) Melvin Ingram DE South Carolina - 18th - minus 7
2(39) Nick Foles QB Arizona - 88th - minus 49
3(75) John Norman CB Coastal Carolina - 143rd - minus 68

Overall: minus 124

-

15) Baltimore Ravens (MichaelWinicki)
1(29) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi St. - 12th - plus 17
2(61) Leonard Johnson CB Iowa St. - 254th - minus 193
3(92) Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech - 43rd - plus 49

Overall: minus 127

-

16) New York Jets (DFWJC)
1(16) Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama - 35th - minus 19
2(47) Rueben Randle WR LSU - 63rd - minus 17
3(78) George Iloka S Boise St. - 167th - minus 89
4(105) Bobby Massie T Mississippi - 112th - minus 7

Overall: minus 132

-

17) Minnesota Vikings (theogt)
1(3) Matt Kalil T USC - 4th - minus 1
2(35) Chase Minnifield CB Virginia - 254th - minus 219
3(67) Bobby Wagner ILB Utah St. - 47th - plus 20
4(98) Brian Quick WR Appalachian St. - 33rd - plus 65

Overall: minus 135

-

17) Houston Texans (Bleu Star)
1(26) Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina - 45th - minus 19
2(58) Brandon Thompson DT Clemson - 93rd - minus 35
3(89) Ryan Miller G Colorado - 160th - minus 71
4(121) Brandon Mosley T Auburn - 131st - minus 10

Overall: minus 135

-

19) Indianapolis Colts (Oh_Canada)
1(1) Andrew Luck QB Stanford - 1st - even
2(34) Lamar Miller RB Miami - 97th - minus 63
3(65) Ben Jones C Georgia - 99th - minus 34
4(97) Josh Chapman DT Alabama - 136th - minus 39

Overall: minus 136

-

20) Green Bay Packers (silverbear)
1(28) Nick Perry DE USC - 28th - even
2(60) Billy Winn DT Boise St. - 205th - minus 145
3(91) Philip Blake C Baylor - 108th - minus 17
4(123) Kirk Cousins QB Michigan St. - 102nd - plus 21

Overall: minus 141

-

21) Tennessee Titans (Hostile)
1(20) Cordy Glenn G Georgia - 41st - minus 21
2(52) Jared Crick DE Nebraska - 126th - minus 74
3(83) Juron Criner WR Arizona - 168th - minus 85
4(115) Akiem Hicks DT Regina - 89th - plus 26

Overall: minus 154

-

22) Jacksonville Jaguars (Robert70X7)
1(7) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina - 16th - minus 9
2(38) Kelechi Osemele G Iowa St. - 60th - minus 22
3(71) Alameda Ta'amu DT Washington - 109th - minus 38
4(101) Marvin McNutt WR Iowa - 194th - minus 93

Overall: minus 162

-

23) Miami Dolphins (Picksix)
1(9) Riley Reiff T Iowa - 23rd - minus 14
2(40) Brandon Washington G Miami - 200th - minus 160
3(74) Joe Adams WR Arkansas - 104th - minus 30
4(104) Tyrone Crawford DE Boise St. - 81st - plus 23

Overall: minus 181

-

24) Washington Redskins (SDogo)
1(6) Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M - 8th - minus 2
2(44) Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina - 10th - plus 34
3(70) DaJohn Harris DT USC - 254th - minus 184
4(102) Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia - 15th - plus 87
4(107) Chris Polk RB Washington - 254th - minus 147
4(109) Jamell Fleming CB Oklahoma - 80th - plus 29

Overall: minus 183

-

25) Cincinnati Bengals (JonJon)
1(21) Janoris Jenkins CB Northern Alabama - 39th - minus 18
2(46) Doug Martin RB Boise St. - 31st - plus 15
2(51) Amini Silatolu G Midwestern St. - 40th - plus 11
2(53) Coby Fleener TE Stanford - 34th - plus 19
4(99) Travis Lewis OLB Oklahoma - 223rd - minus 124
4(116) Aaron Henry S Wisconsin - 254th - minus 138
Added 2013 4th Round Pick (Philadelphia)

Overall: minus 235

-

26) New England Patriots (BraveHeartFan)
1(27) Mark Barron S Alabama - 7th - plus 20
1(31) Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska - 224th - minus 193
2(48) Andre Branch DE Clemson - 38th - plus 10
2(63) Lamichael James RB Oregon - 61st - plus 2
3(94) Tommy Streeter WR Miami - 198th - minus 104
Added 2013 4th Round Pick (New Orleans)
Added 2013 7th Round Pick (New Orleans)

Overall: minus 265

-

27) Buffalo Bills (casmith07)
1(10) Michael Brockers DT LSU - 14th - minus 4
2(50) Jayron Hosley CB Virginia Tech - 94th - minus 44
3(73) Dwight Jones WR North Carolina - 254th - minus 181
3(80) Shea McClellin DE Boise St. - 19th - plus 61
4(124) Levy Adcock T Oklahoma St. - 254th - minus 130

Overall: minus 298

-

28) San Diego Chargers (TheSport78)
1(18) Mike Adams T Ohio St. - 56th - minus 38
2(49) Jerel Worthy DT Michigan St. - 51st - minus 2
3(79) Cam Johnson DE Virginia - 237th - minus 158
4(110) Matt Conrath DE Virginia - 254th - minus 144

Overall: minus 342

-

29) Chicago Bears (Joe Rod)
1(19) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame - 13th - plus 6
2(41) Zebrie Sanders T Florida St. - 144th - minus 103
3(72) Casey Hayward CB Vanderbilt - 62nd - plus 10
4(108) Antonio Allen S South Carolina - 242nd - minus 134
4(111) Lucas Nix G Pittsburgh - 254th - minus 143

Overall: minus 364

-

30) New York Giants (avery)
1(32) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson - 64th - minus 32
2(43) Vontaze Burfict ILB Arizona St. - 254th - minus 211
(127) Matt Reynolds OT BYU - 254th - minus 127
Lost 2013 3rd Round Pick (Kansas City)

Overall: minus 370

-

31) St. Louis Rams (ABQcowboyJR)
1(4) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma St. - 5th - minus 1
2(33) Zach Brown OLB North Carolina - 52nd - minus 19
2(37) David Wilson RB Virginia Tech - 32nd - plus 5
3(66) Senio Kelemete G Washington - 151st - minus 85
4(96) Cliff Harris CB Oregon - 254th - minus 158
4(100) Kheeston Randall DT Texas - 215th - minus 115

Overall: minus 373

Eskimo · 05-06-2012

Wow, RS - you really cleaned up this year.

Risen Star · 05-06-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eskimo

Wow, RS - you really cleaned up this year.

~Ric Flair strut~

xwalker · 05-07-2012

I don't get it. You get a plus for completely missing the opportunity to draft the player you wanted?

At least with the minus picks, the person drafting got the player they wanted.

Wouldn't I "win" by picking Andrew Luck in the 7th round?

Maybe I'm just misunderstanding this exercise.

TheCount · 05-07-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by xwalker

I don't get it. You get a plus for completely missing the opportunity to draft the player you wanted?

At least with the minus picks, the person drafting got the player they wanted.

Wouldn't I "win" by picking Andrew Luck in the 7th round?

Maybe I'm just misunderstanding this exercise.

He's talking about value in relation to how the draft actually turned out. It's kind of a pointless exercise since we did the drafts before the combine even, but it's just. The fact is, we're all losers.

I think I deserve way more credit considering all I gave up to get Robert Griffin was a 2nd round pick while the Redskins gave up 2 firsts and swapped another! Where are my value points for that, huh???

DFWJC · 05-07-2012

That was a lot of fun. Thanks for hosting it.
Let's do it again next year!

Still, as I said before (and as RS has said), no winners or losers can be proclaimed until we find out how these players actually play.

The draft was not to predict who would draft what/when but to predcit what each team SHOULD do.....giant difference.

No doubt though, RS had a crazy-good handle on how teams where valuing certain players. His KC team got several steals.

Have to admit though, if this had been done a few weeks closer to the draft some of us may have picked differently. I really overrrated George Iloka (3rd round?..wow) it seems. Even right up to the draft, I would have picked him much lower, but it still would have been too high. I hoped we'd get him in the 5th or so and he didn't go until , I think, the 7th.

Let's check back in in 1-3 years and get a true measure of how we all did.

SilverStarCowboy · 05-07-2012

Horn Tooting, when masterbations lost its fun.

speedkilz88 · 05-07-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by DFWJC

That was a lot of fun. Thanks for hosting it.
Let's do it again next year!

Still, as I said before (and as RS has said), no winners or losers can be proclaimed until we find out how these players actually play.

The draft was not to predict who would draft what/when but to predcit what each team SHOULD do.....giant difference.

No doubt though, RS had a crazy-good handle on how teams where valuing certain players. His KC team got several steals.

Have to admit though, if this had been done a few weeks closer to the draft some of us may have picked differently. I really overrrated George Iloka (3rd round?..wow) it seems. Even right up to the draft, I would have picked him much lower, but it still would have been too high. I hoped we'd get him in the 5th or so and he didn't go until , I think, the 7th.

Let's check back in in 1-3 years and get a true measure of how we all did.

Broaddus doesn't like Iloka at all. He's compared him to Pat Watkins, he said if you want Pat Watkins back then draft George Iloka.

DFWJC · 05-07-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by speedkilz88

Broaddus doesn't like Iloka at all. He's compared him to Pat Watkins, he said if you want Pat Watkins back then draft George Iloka.

Yeah, looks like that's going to be one I would have missed on.. In any case, he could have been had way later than I took him. Of course Broaddas has been wrong hundreds of times too.

There's a bunch of changes I would have made in hind-site. This draft was a long time ago.

Risen Star · 05-07-2012

I'd post this whether I was first or last. Like I said in the original post it's says nothing definitively except where the players actually went in the draft.

Risen Star · 05-07-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by DFWJC

That was a lot of fun. Thanks for hosting it.
Let's do it again next year!

Still, as I said before (and as RS has said), no winners or losers can be proclaimed until we find out how these players actually play.

The draft was not to predict who would draft what/when but to predcit what each team SHOULD do.....giant difference.

No doubt though, RS had a crazy-good handle on how teams where valuing certain players. His KC team got several steals.

Have to admit though, if this had been done a few weeks closer to the draft some of us may have picked differently. I really overrrated George Iloka (3rd round?..wow) it seems. Even right up to the draft, I would have picked him much lower, but it still would have been too high. I hoped we'd get him in the 5th or so and he didn't go until , I think, the 7th.

Let's check back in in 1-3 years and get a true measure of how we all did.

Thank Hostile. He was like a machine keeping everything moving. We could have done a full 7 rounds in 3 days with the way he had it rolling.

It was good. It's only ever as good as the GMs in it. Most were prepared.

One note, we do it in February before the combine to make it more of a challenge. You get bigger steals and reaches that way.