The Cowboys problem is not that Complicated

[Outlaw Heroes]

Originally Posted by AdamJT13

Run success does not "correlate fairly strongly." It's still a low to moderate-at-best correlation -- and much lower than pass success.

Lower that pass success and lower than pass efficiency, but as I say, I don't think that's really in dispute.

It's also fair to say that R values of around .4 are "moderate-at-best", but then I think most statisticians would say that R values don't really exceed "moderate" until you get up over .7. By that standard, pass success and pass efficiency also yield moderate corrrelations.

Originally Posted by AdamJT13

His point wasn't that run success correlates fairly strongly, it's that run success correlates more than simple YPC, which is true.

Certainly he's saying that run success correlates with wins more strongly than YPC. But I think you're understating what he's saying. From the article:

The bottom line is that we should pay attention to run SR. It’s very likely a predictor [emphasis added] of passing performance and of overall team success.

Originally Posted by AdamJT13

I'm guessing that a good portion of that difference could be attributed to the ability to convert on short-yardage runs.

You're surely right about this. I trust you don't see that as a limitation in run SR? I personally think it's a strength. Any model that tries to predict team success on the basis of effective running without placing significant emphasis on the ability to convert in short-yardage situations (a failing of YPC) is ipso facto of questionable value, in my view.