1/27 Mock

[xwalker]

Originally Posted by Mr_Bill

When I look at the diagrams of Kiffin's 4-3 under, and I look at snaps of the Tampa defense under Kiffin, then compare them to photos from last year, I see zero difference in where Spencer lines up. If there is a difference in responsibility, please point it out to me. No kidding! I am open to enlightenment and persuasion.

Now, if you bring up the 4-3 over front, there is a big difference, and I can see how Spencer might not be the best choice there. So, how often does Kiffin use that front?

They might line up in the same position; however, the responsibilities are different, especially in coverage.

Like some others have posted, it's not just about "can Spencer play SLB in Kiffin's defense", but the cost to have him play the position. Moving a pass-rusher to what's *considered a non-pass rushing position is not a good usage of resources.

*The SLB in Kiffin's defense will blitz, but is not considered a true pass-rushing position.

[Mr_Bill]

Originally Posted by xwalker

They might line up in the same position; however, the responsibilities are different, especially in coverage.

Like some others have posted, it's not just about "can Spencer play SLB in Kiffin's defense", but the cost to have him play the position. Moving a pass-rusher to what's *considered a non-pass rushing position is not a good usage of resources.

*The SLB in Kiffin's defense will blitz, but is not considered a true pass-rushing position.

I was hoping for more of an explanation than 'the responsibilities are different'. Oh, well!

This issue is becoming a dead horse, so I won't beat it too much further.

I would like to expand on a couple of points, though.

According to Bob Sturm's analysis, last year the Cowboys sent 5 or more pass rushers on only 25% of the plays. On first down, when they were most likely to be in a 3-4 alignment, that number drops to 22%. Since Ware was the primary edge rusher our of the 3-4, that leaves an inordinate number of pass plays when Spencer was in coverage, while in that alignment..

http://www.sturminator.blogspot.com/...ashington.html

So, how did Spencer get all his sacks and pressures? I suggest that it was primarily when he lined up as a defensive end in passing situations, which is exactly what I am proposing.

I am definitely not proposing that the Cowboys expend some huge amount of cap space on an SLB. I am suggesting that they use Spencer to the best of his abilities as an SLB/DE. I really don't care what the label is.

However, I will admit that the Cowboys are unlikely to do this. If Spencer is under contract for the 2013 season, I suspect they will do as you suggest, and play him at strong-side DE for most plays. This concerns me, because I worry about him playing a 5-technique on running plays, especially if someone like Ernie Sims is playing outside of him. I know that Robert Mathis does it. But Mathis is a 5-time Pro Bowler, and made it on account of his pass-rushing skills. not his run-stopping prowess. Spencer is, well, not Mathis.

[AsthmaField]

Originally Posted by Mr_Bill

Since Ware was the primary edge rusher our of the 3-4, that leaves an inordinate number of pass plays when Spencer was in coverage, while in that alignment..

That could be part of the reason why Rob Ryan is having to take his 5 min. to find another job. Spencer shouldn't be in coverage that much, period... regardless of if he can or not. Ware isn't bad in coverage either, yet you don't see anyone proposing to take him out of the pass rush and have him covering backs. It isn't the rare skill that he has that makes him worth big money.

I understand what you're saying. I do. But just because Spencer can cover decent enough doesn't mean that he should spend time doing it... except for the occasional zone blitz of course.

Originally Posted by Mr_Bill

So, how did Spencer get all his sacks and pressures? I suggest that it was primarily when he lined up as a defensive end in passing situations, which is exactly what I am proposing.

And we are proposing that Spencer stay at the DE position if he gets paid the money to stay in Dallas. He is a pass rusher.

There are dozens of guys that can be paid very little (relatively speaking, of course) to play SLB in our scheme. They are smaller than Spencer (who is gigantic by 43 OLB standards), have better change of direction, and are better in coverage.

Spencer is very strong at setting the edge in the run game and should have no problem in that department. If you're that concerned about slowing the run on the strongside, just put Hatcher or Crawford at SDE in sure running situations, and give Spencer a breather. Meanwhile, we can have some inexpensive guy at SLB back in coverage doing a better job than Spencer ever would. Not some tiny guy like Sims... but somebody around the size of Carter.

Originally Posted by Mr_Bill

I am suggesting that they use Spencer to the best of his abilities as an SLB/DE. I really don't care what the label is.

Great, then use him to the best of his abilities at DE, because he is a pass rusher first and foremost, followed by a stout run stopper, and lastly a decent cover guy. He is out of position at 43 OLB. In a four man front, he is a DE unless you have some elaborate defensive play that won't be run very often. I mean, I'm sure he could have a snap or two at SLB... but 99% of the time, he is a DE.

It likely doesn't matter because I don't think Spencer will re-sign in Dallas. I think he goes elsewhere and we either go in-house for a SDE (for example: Crawford against the run /Albright on passing downs) or we get a decent SDE in free agency for about half of what Spencer will want.

I appreciate the dialogue and I'm not trying to be argumentative... I just don't think any defensive coordinator would want Spencer at OLB in this situation.

[xwalker]

Originally Posted by Mr_Bill

I was hoping for more of an explanation than 'the responsibilities are different'. Oh, well!

This issue is becoming a dead horse, so I won't beat it too much further.

I would like to expand on a couple of points, though.

According to Bob Sturm's analysis, last year the Cowboys sent 5 or more pass rushers on only 25% of the plays. On first down, when they were most likely to be in a 3-4 alignment, that number drops to 22%. Since Ware was the primary edge rusher our of the 3-4, that leaves an inordinate number of pass plays when Spencer was in coverage, while in that alignment..

http://www.sturminator.blogspot.com/...ashington.html

[View Full Quote]So, how did Spencer get all his sacks and pressures? I suggest that it was primarily when he lined up as a defensive end in passing situations, which is exactly what I am proposing.

I am definitely not proposing that the Cowboys expend some huge amount of cap space on an SLB. I am suggesting that they use Spencer to the best of his abilities as an SLB/DE. I really don't care what the label is.

However, I will admit that the Cowboys are unlikely to do this. If Spencer is under contract for the 2013 season, I suspect they will do as you suggest, and play him at strong-side DE for most plays. This concerns me, because I worry about him playing a 5-technique on running plays, especially if someone like Ernie Sims is playing outside of him. I know that Robert Mathis does it. But Mathis is a 5-time Pro Bowler, and made it on account of his pass-rushing skills. not his run-stopping prowess. Spencer is, well, not Mathis.

What you're proposing is not unreasonable. You would need to make a cost analysis of this proposal.

Option A: Spencer is SLB and SDE on passing downs. Ernie Sims is SLB when Spencer is at SDE.
I would expect Spencer to be average as a SLB. He would be great against the run when it is coming at him; however, he would not have as much range as other Kiffin type SLBs against outside runs like the read-option and he wouldn't have as much range in coverage.

Option B: Spencer is gone. Ernie Sims at SLB and a Pass-Rushing Specialist plays SDE in the nickel.
As a pure pass-rusher, how does Spencer compare to some options that could be Pass-Rushing Specialists?

Jason Babin: He comes to mind, but he's not a Free Agent.

Dwight Freeney: How much would he cost at age 33?

Osi Umenyiora: This is basically his role with the Giants. How much would he cost at age 31?

Victor Butler: Pass-Rushing seems to be his only skill. He should be cheap to re-sign.

Draft Pick: It would be easier for a Rookie to contribute as a Nickel Pass-Rusher than as a Full-Time SDE.

Ware's Backup: This player will probably not be an option to play the Strong-Side full time.


The cost comparison would be:
Ernie Sims + Spencer

or

Ernie Sims + Pass-Rushing Specialist


Keep in mind that I'm not saying that I know the correct answer. I'm just trying to do an analysis and see the Pros and Cons of possible options.

Also, I'm just using Sims as an example. It could be a low/medium cost Free Agent like Nick Roach, the Bear's starting SLB in 2012.

.

[Mr_Bill]

Originally Posted by AsthmaField

That could be part of the reason why Rob Ryan is having to take his 5 min. to find another job. Spencer shouldn't be in coverage that much, period... regardless of if he can or not. Ware isn't bad in coverage either, yet you don't see anyone proposing to take him out of the pass rush and have him covering backs. It isn't the rare skill that he has that makes him worth big money.

I understand what you're saying. I do. But just because Spencer can cover decent enough doesn't mean that he should spend time doing it... except for the occasional zone blitz of course.



And we are proposing that Spencer stay at the DE position if he gets paid the money to stay in Dallas. He is a pass rusher.

[View Full Quote]There are dozens of guys that can be paid very little (relatively speaking, of course) to play SLB in our scheme. They are smaller than Spencer (who is gigantic by 43 OLB standards), have better change of direction, and are better in coverage.

Spencer is very strong at setting the edge in the run game and should have no problem in that department. If you're that concerned about slowing the run on the strongside, just put Hatcher or Crawford at SDE in sure running situations, and give Spencer a breather. Meanwhile, we can have some inexpensive guy at SLB back in coverage doing a better job than Spencer ever would. Not some tiny guy like Sims... but somebody around the size of Carter.



Great, then use him to the best of his abilities at DE, because he is a pass rusher first and foremost, followed by a stout run stopper, and lastly a decent cover guy. He is out of position at 43 OLB. In a four man front, he is a DE unless you have some elaborate defensive play that won't be run very often. I mean, I'm sure he could have a snap or two at SLB... but 99% of the time, he is a DE.

It likely doesn't matter because I don't think Spencer will re-sign in Dallas. I think he goes elsewhere and we either go in-house for a SDE (for example: Crawford against the run /Albright on passing downs) or we get a decent SDE in free agency for about half of what Spencer will want.

I appreciate the dialogue and I'm not trying to be argumentative... I just don't think any defensive coordinator would want Spencer at OLB in this situation.

A very reasoned response. Thank you for that.

The only exception I might take is that the only 'sure running situations' where it would be practical to switch out Spencer would be at the goal line or in 3rd-and-very short. What I am more concerned about is 1st-and-10, 2nd-and-6, 3rd-and-4, etc.

Thanks again. You have given me much to consider.

[Mr_Bill]

Originally Posted by xwalker

What you're proposing is not unreasonable. You would need to make a cost analysis of this proposal.

Option A: Spencer is SLB and SDE on passing downs. Ernie Sims is SLB when Spencer is at SDE.
I would expect Spencer to be average as a SLB. He would be great against the run when it is coming at him; however, he would not have as much range as other Kiffin type SLBs against outside runs like the read-option and he wouldn't have as much range in coverage.

Option B: Spencer is gone. Ernie Sims at SLB and a Pass-Rushing Specialist plays SDE in the nickel.
As a pure pass-rusher, how does Spencer compare to some options that could be Pass-Rushing Specialists?

Jason Babin: He comes to mind, but he's not a Free Agent.

Dwight Freeney: How much would he cost at age 33?

Osi Umenyiora: This is basically his role with the Giants. How much would he cost at age 31?

[View Full Quote]Victor Butler: Pass-Rushing seems to be his only skill. He should be cheap to re-sign.

Draft Pick: It would be easier for a Rookie to contribute as a Nickel Pass-Rusher than as a Full-Time SDE.

Ware's Backup: This player will probably not be an option to play the Strong-Side full time.


The cost comparison would be:
Ernie Sims + Spencer

or

Ernie Sims + Pass-Rushing Specialist


Keep in mind that I'm not saying that I know the correct answer. I'm just trying to do an analysis and see the Pros and Cons of possible options.

Also, I'm just using Sims as an example. It could be a low/medium cost Free Agent like Nick Roach, the Bear's starting SLB in 2012.

.

Another excellent response. This must be my lucky day.

I don't know the correct answer either. I think the difference between us comes down to what worries us more about his abilities. You do make some good points. I looked up your chart showing combine times for our linebackers, and Spencer does seem lacking in the agility times.

Maybe we should just let the Cowboys figure this one out by themselves.

Thank you for an interesting and informative debate.