Draft Day Trade: Howard, Plus #11 For #16 Swap? - Dallas Cowboys Forum

DallasEast · 04-03-2005

From an outside perspective, the main snag in the Darren Howard trade has been whether or not the Saints will get a starter-quality linebacker out of the deal. New Orleans had constantly pushed for Dat Nguyen to be included in the trade. Parcells and Jones have refused to make that move.

The Saints are still facing the prospect of keeping Howard, his huge cap figure, not playing Will Smith more often because of Howard, and not upgrading their linebacker corps. IMO, something's got to give, but when?

Well, the Saints may have decided to take a wait-and-see approach and find out how the first 10 picks of the draft will play out. Why? After the first 10 picks, there is a possibility that an impact linebacker, who could start on opening day, may be available...

...possibly Derrick Johnson or Shawne Merriman. And which team has the #11 pick?

Dallas, but the Cowboys aren't likely to make a draft day swap of their #11 pick (valued 1,250 points) for the Saints #16 pick (valued at 1,000 points) simply to land Howard. The difference between the two picks (250 points) is worthy of a high 3rd round pick.

Unfortunately, the Saints don't have a high 3rd round selection. Their current picks in this range are the 40th (valued at 500 points) and 82nd (valued at 180 points) overall selections. Haslett's unlikely to drop out of the 2nd round, especially after he's made comments like, "Then after that ('that' being the top picks on the Saints board) it's a crapshoot. I don't know if there are any superstars. There's a lot of good second- and third-round picks that you can get that will come in and help your team." (Link: The Times-Picayune). But he might hand over both their 82nd pick and swap their 40th pick (valued at 500 points) for our 42th (valued at 480 points) as trade compensation.

In the end, the Saints could end up with their linebacker, Howard off their roster and keep their 2nd rounder. On the other hand, Dallas would drop five slots in the first, but would add Howard to the roster, jump two slots in the 2nd round, and gain an additional 3rd round pick. The team would still be in optimal position to address another team need with the BPA at WR, etc. In addition, Dallas would also be in the driving seat to either demand that New Orleans also include their lower round picks (152nd/30 points, 193rd/14 points & 232rd/0 points or 44 value points) in the deal--or as future draft picks as compensation for the remaining 50 value points.

Thoughts? I mean, other than, "We would be CRAZY to bypass both Merriman AND DJ!!!"

dargonking999 · 04-03-2005

i dont think NO would do it

bbgun · 04-03-2005

They're not gonna trade Howard just to move up 5 spots in a weak draft.

HeHateMe · 04-03-2005

In a perfect world it would go down like that.

CanadaBoys · 04-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by bbgun

They're not gonna trade Howard just to move up 5 spots in a weak draft.

Not unless they want someone that they won't be able to get 4 picks later.

If merriman or DJ are there.. the answer is no... we need a Lb as much as they do. But If we can move down 4 spots and still get what we want then absolutely.

It all pretty much depends on who is available whn we get on the clock....

DallasEast · 04-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by bbgun

They're not gonna trade Howard just to move up 5 spots in a weak draft.

That's true enough and Haslett agrees with you about the overall quality of the draft. But NO still wants to part with Howard and get a starting linebacker in exchange. The overall draft is weak, but the first two-thirds of Round 1 isn't. And within those first 20-25 picks are a few projected opening day starters--of which includes Johnson and Merriman... a.k.a. starting linebackers.

blindzebra · 04-03-2005

A more likely trading partner for #11 is KC, unless they land Surtain.

Jones or Rolle will likely be there at #11 and they really need a CB with Denver and Oakland in their division.

The only hitch is they only have a comp pick in the 3rd rd, so it would need to be a much more complex trade with us giving up our 4th and #11 for their 2nd and #15, or picks in 2006.

I also like the Steelers to move to #20 for a WR.

DallasEast · 04-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by blindzebra

A more likely trading partner for #11 is KC, unless they land Surtain.

Jones or Rolle will likely be there at #11 and they really need a CB with Denver and Oakland in their division.

But how does this most help the team by swapping slots with the Chiefs? The angle with the Saints is Howard, who would greatly boost our pass rush, and keep a relatively high pick. If we swap with the Chiefs, we still have the same relatively high slot and the chance at one of the better BPA, but nothing else. Can Kansas City offer us something else in addition to their 15th?

blindzebra · 04-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by DallasEast

But how does this most help the team by swapping slots with the Chiefs? The angle with the Saints is Howard, who would greatly boost our pass rush, and keep a relatively high pick. If we swap with the Chiefs, we still have the same relatively high slot and the chance at one of the better BPA, but nothing else. Can Kansas City offer us something else in addition to their 15th?

The value at DE in this draft is in that 15-25 range. If we don't make the trade for Howard by the time we are on the clock a trade down to draft a DE is possible.

DallasEast · 04-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by blindzebra

The value at DE in this draft is in that 15-25 range. If we don't make the trade for Howard by the time we are on the clock a trade down to draft a DE is possible.

Okay, got it. Cool. Under those circumstances, I agree.

CanadaBoys · 04-03-2005

Wait... wasn't the point of all this to land HOWARD?

why would we trade down to to the 15-25 range to get howard... then turn around and pick another DE?

So trading down in your original scenrio to take a DE doesn't make sense...

Furthermore, we already HAVE a pick in the 15-25 range where we could pick a DE if that is where the value is... so why not (if the trade doesn't happen) pick him there, and save the #11 for Merriman or Johnson who also fill needs?

dstew60105 · 04-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by bbgun

They're not gonna trade Howard just to move up 5 spots in a weak draft.

This draft could also be a repeat of 2003 when we stayed still and made our picks when it was our turn. Expect with unexpected with BP, stayed put in 2003, then left the #1 rated back on the board and traded out of round #1 for Jones in 2004. Either way it should be interesting.

CanadaBoys · 04-03-2005

Besides... our 11 will probably become a 10 when the Vikings forget to pick at #7.

DallasEast · 04-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanadaBoys

Besides... our 11 will probably become a 10 when the Vikings forget to pick at #7.

Minnesota does have a habit of letting the clock run out on them, don't they?

blindzebra · 04-03-2005

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanadaBoys

Wait... wasn't the point of all this to land HOWARD?

why would we trade down to to the 15-25 range to get howard... then turn around and pick another DE?

So trading down in your original scenrio to take a DE doesn't make sense...

Furthermore, we already HAVE a pick in the 15-25 range where we could pick a DE if that is where the value is... so why not (if the trade doesn't happen) pick him there, and save the #11 for Merriman or Johnson who also fill needs?

I think it's 50-50 on Howard. I do think if we don't have a trade before we pick at #11 we will weigh our options and one of those will be drafting a DE.

We already have a trading history with KC and if they are targeting a CB they might want to make a move.

Unfortunately it may be a deal with AZ, because #15 to #8 is 450 points which is the value of pick #46, and we all know how Bidwell is always willing to trade down.

Merriman is a DE and DJ is too small to play 3-4 LB, so unless you are thinking Merriman as an edge rushing LB and Spears at #20 how is it gonna fit?