Whitney Mercilus impresses at pro day

[Dough Boy]

Originally Posted by realtick

Someone failed to tell the 49ers that when they took Aldon Smith #7 overall. Aldon Smith had played just 17 games at Missouri before entering the draft.

I agree with you.

What about JPP? He only played 1 year of D1 football. His production was average at best for that one year.

Not only was he a 1st rounder, today many consider him the 2nd best pass rusher in the game.

At some point people will understand, the draft is just as much about production as it is about 'potential' production at the next level. You don't need a scout, a scouting department and spend millions of dollar to look at production. If production was the only element to scouting/drafting then the combine would be useless. Its around for a reason.

That reason. You don't draft on college production alone. You draft on college production and pro potential. Many people will not like this, but this is why the draft is not a science. Its an art for this very reason. You have to project a player. You have to project how he will play with 15 lbs of extra weight; how will he play with a new scheme, how will he play with football being his sole concentration, how will he respond to the money-media-attention-new fame and new friends. Can he transition to the OG spot for LT; can he drop back into coverage; can he play off man-press man-press bail. Can he turn the corner against Walter Jones; can he stack and shed Pouncey. Can he set the edge at the pro-level.

The draft is more about projecting than it is about college production. Anyone can read a stat line. Few can read a stat line, critically evaluate film, watch the combine for football tales (not as an underwear olympics) and make a highly informed decisions as to whether a player will produce at the next level. All art....

[realtick]

Originally Posted by supercowboy8

Aldon Smith played in 17 games, two years of good football.
Also Aldon Smith on tape was a force, playing DT and DE and stuffing the run. I don't just look at tackles for loss, I also look at how the player gets off blocks and stuffs the RB for no gain. Smith was great at that as well.
Last year I was all for Aldon Smith, Mercilus just doesn't jump out to me as much as Smith did.

I don't mind drafting Mercilus, but picking him over players that IMO is just as good if not better and are more proven is scary and I wouldn't do it. You might, then thats your prerogative. If Dallas takes him at 14 then I will be fine with it. Just wouldn't be my first pick.

Scouts have more footage to watch on Mercilus from his FR & SO years. They can also see him dominating his JR season last year. He's trending upward, not downward. I'd be more concerned about a player who blew up his sophomore year and then had a so-so JR or SR year. The proverbial "switch" obviously flipped for him in a big-time way. The criticisms of Aldon Smtih coming out were nearly identical to what is being said about Whitney Mercilus.

Beyond that though, you're speaking of whether a player is ready to contribute in a starting/fulltime role DAY 1, or if he's ready to contribute at all. I think you can make an easy positive case that Mercilus is ready to do at least the latter his rookie season.

BTW, it's interesting to note that the 49ers didn't think Aldon Smith was ready to take over the SOLB role and utilized him primarily as a passrushing specialist.

[realtick]

Originally Posted by Noryb

But there is a good chance that players like Ingram, Coples, Brockers, Cox and Poe could push him down to us.

I think there's a chance the release of Peyton Manning could possibly affect the draft too. I think the Dolphins could make a major run at Peyton Manning which may preclude them from taking a guy like Tanneyhill in the Top 10, which obviously would have helped push a good player down to us. You can't factor out the Redskins either should they not be able to make a move to trade up for RGIII.

[supercowboy8]

Originally Posted by realtick

Scouts have more footage to watch on Mercilus from his FR & SO years. They can also see him dominating his JR season last year. He's trending upward, not downward. I'd be more concerned about a player who blew up his sophomore year and then had a so-so JR or SR year. The proverbial "switch" obviously flipped for him in a big-time way. The criticisms of Aldon Smtih coming out were nearly identical to what is being said about Whitney Mercilus.

Beyond that though, you're speaking of whether a player is ready to contribute in a starting/fulltime role DAY 1, or if he's ready to contribute at all. I think you can make an easy positive case that Mercilus is ready to do at least the latter his rookie season.

BTW, it's interesting to note that the 49ers didn't think Aldon Smith was ready to take over the SOLB role and utilized him primarily as a passrushing specialist.

I agree, but SF also didn't have as many holes as we had to fill. They were one spot infront of us. They had starting OTs so they didn't take Tron Smith, no CB was worth that pick last year, They had two very good 3-4 DEs so no reason to take Watt there. Aldon SMith who I really liked last year and wanted was the best pick. Liek I said before I wouldn't hate the pick of Mercilus he just isn't my first choice. When I watched him this season he never really stood out at me in all facits of the game. If Dallas takes him, then fine so be it and I hope the scouts and coaches are right.

[realtick]

Originally Posted by Dough Boy

I agree with you.

What about JPP? He only played 1 year of D1 football. His production was average at best for that one year.

Not only was he a 1st rounder, today many consider him the 2nd best pass rusher in the game.

At some point people will understand, the draft is just as much about production as it is about 'potential' production at the next level. You don't need a scout, a scouting department and spend millions of dollar to look at production. If production was the only element to scouting/drafting then the combine would be useless. Its around for a reason.

[View Full Quote]That reason. You don't draft on college production alone. You draft on college production and pro potential. Many people will not like this, but this is why the draft is not a science. Its an art for this very reason. You have to project a player. You have to project how he will play with 15 lbs of extra weight; how will he play with a new scheme, how will he play with football being his sole concentration, how will he respond to the money-media-attention-new fame and new friends. Can he transition to the OG spot for LT; can he drop back into coverage; can he play off man-press man-press bail. Can he turn the corner against Walter Jones; can he stack and shed Pouncey. Can he set the edge at the pro-level.

The draft is more about projecting than it is about college production. Anyone can read a stat line. Few can read a stat line, critically evaluate film, watch the combine for football tales (not as an underwear olympics) and make a highly informed decisions as to whether a player will produce at the next level. All art....

I think most fans (understandibly so) want to have a prospect that has great potential, a history of proven ability and on the field and production. When one of those things aren't there or is in question, it causes people to get skeptical.

Fans often lean too much on a tangible thing like numbers on a stat sheet because they see it as an indicator to point to future success in the NFL, but they don't realize there's a list longer than Schindler's of productive former college stars who didn't do squat in the NFL (Gino Torretta, Troy Smith, Troy Davis, Ron Dayne...et cetera).

The draft isn't an exact science, but there is a science and art to it. Those teams/scouts that can weigh and balance all of those aspects are the most successful.

[Noryb]

Originally Posted by realtick

DeCastro is still my no. 1 on my board. However, Whitney Mercilus is solidly my no. 2 choice for the pick at #14 now.

I've heard a lot about the Giants/49rs pass rush. How we needed to get Ware and Ratliff help when it comes to rushing the passer. Now that we could have a chance to add that dynamic rusher opposite Ware we are going to pass that up for a guard, when everybody knows there will be a solid guard available at pick 45.

This board knows that goes against traditional NFL thinking. The 49rs drafted Iupati after JPP was taken, not before.

[realtick]

Originally Posted by Noryb

I've heard a lot about the Giants/49rs pass rush. How we needed to get Ware and Ratliff help when it comes to rushing the passer. Now that we could have a chance to add that dynamic rusher opposite Ware we are going to pass that up for a guard, when everybody knows there will be a solid guard available at pick 45.

This board knows that goes against traditional NFL thinking. The 49rs drafted Iupati after JPP was taken, not before.

If you heed what SDogo had to say in his pre-draft thread, he mentioned that the team is valuing defensive line help over interior o-line with the #14 pick. I'm assuming that may include pass-rushing help.

Jerry Jones alluded to as much in his recent comments below:

"Let's say that you drafted a war horse as a pass rusher specifically, got the best one in the draft," Jones said. "You would play him differently than we played Spencer last year.

"We don't need to be cavalier about passing on a significant pass-rusher in a draft. That would draw us up right there and make us think twice, even with Spencer."

I think the fact this draft appears to be unusually deep at the OG position may afford the Cowboys liberty to bypass a guy like DeCastro or Glenn in the 1st round.

JMO...

[Dough Boy]

Originally Posted by realtick

I think most fans (understandibly so) want to have a prospect that has great potential, a history of proven ability and on the field and production. When one of those things aren't there or is in question, it causes people to get skeptical.

Fans lean a lot on college production too, but they don't realize there's a list longer than Schindler's of productive former college stars who didn't do squat in the NFL (Gino Torretta, Troy Smith, Troy Davis, Ron Dayne...et cetera).

The draft isn't an exact science, but there is a science and art to it.

College production is good variable to add to the equation. I'm not knocking it. Given to equally rated players, I would pick the one with more college production. I'm simply saying, college production is not the "Wonder" variable. I see a lot of people over analysing college stats. He only got sacks in Qtr 1 or Qtr 3. Well maybe, teams tripled team the guy in Qtr 4 becasue he was killing their offensive game plan. Counter to that, maybe the guy has awesome stats becasue his Soph teammate was demanding a triple team and he acquired 8 sacks because he was unblocked. Stats are just a number - you need to fully understand the underlying story behind the stats.

For instance, a guy has 5 sacks through 5 games. Games 6 to 11, zero sacks. Well maybe after the 5 sacks the guy garnered more attention; double teams became a part of the game plan against him. Is the really any less productive becasue he is doubled and chipped on every pass play. Or if the offensense roles the pocket away from him 40% of the time. I would say no. Look past the stats and understand the story. While I think forty times are vastly overrated, the 10 yard split is not (in my mind). The short shuttle is not, the three cone is not and just watching a guy move is certainly not overrated.

All that being said, if a guy can't beat a tackle from Midwest Southeast Wecan't play football University one-on-one, I would say there is a good chance he can't beat an NFL caliber tackle one-on-one. If that same guy kills the lower competition, the running drills are a great opportunity to project the players skill set. He turned the corner against lower skilled players, lets take a look at his speed and project if he can turn the corner against equal talent.

Again, I agree with you on Aldon Smith. He had more sacks as a rookie than he had any year in college. JPP is another example that people will over look. Everyone saw the talent, but the production in his one college year did not equal his physical talent. Today, no one is talking about his lack of college production. Everyone is talking about his skill set.

[realtick]

Originally Posted by Dough Boy

College production is good variable to add to the equation. I'm not knocking it. Given to equally rated players, I would pick the one with more college production. I'm simply saying, college production is not the "Wonder" variable. I see a lot of people over analysing college stats. He only got sacks in Qtr 1 or Qtr 3. Well maybe, teams tripled team the guy in Qtr 4 becasue he was killing their offensive game plan. Counter to that, maybe the guy has awesome stats becasue his Soph teammate was demanding a triple team and he acquired 8 sacks because he was unblocked. Stats are just a number - you need to fully understand the underlying story behind the stats.

[View Full Quote]For instance, a guy has 5 sacks through 5 games. Games 6 to 11, zero sacks. Well maybe after the 5 sacks the guy garnered more attention; double teams became a part of the game plan against him. Is the really any less productive becasue he is doubled and chipped on every pass play. Or if the offensense roles the pocket away from him 40% of the time. I would say no. Look past the stats and understand the story. While I think forty times are vastly overrated, the 10 yard split is not (in my mind). The short shuttle is not, the three cone is not and just watching a guy move is certainly not overrated.

All that being said, if a guy can't beat a tackle from Midwest Southeast Wecan't play football University one-on-one, I would say there is a good chance he can't beat an NFL caliber tackle one-on-one. If that same guy kills the lower competition, the running drills are a great opportunity to project the players skill set. He turned the corner against lower skilled players, lets take a look at his speed and project if he can turn the corner against equal talent.

Again, I agree with you on Aldon Smith. He had more sacks as a rookie than he had any year in college. JPP is another example that people will over look. Everyone saw the talent, but the production in his one college year did not equal his physical talent. Today, no one is talking about his lack of college production. Everyone is talking about his skill set.

Agree with everything you're saying.

BTW, there are some pretty tough players at Midwest Southeast Wecan't Play Football University. I'm looking forward to their proday.

[Dough Boy]

Originally Posted by realtick

I think the fact this draft appears to be unusually deep at the OG position may afford the Cowboys liberty to bypass a guy like DeCastro or Glenn in the 1st round.

JMO...

I'm on the DeCastro bandwagon. I like him at 14. But...........

If given the opportunity to draft Carl Nicks at 14 or Demarcus Ware at 14; I don't think twice about it.

OG are not considered playmakers. Pass Rushers are. The key to this; can you get a Playmaking DE/OLB at 14?

Given the opportunity to draft Carl Nicks at 14 or Anthony Spencer; I don't think twice about it.

The ultimate question, can you get a real catalytic player at 14. If you can't, take the highest rated OG that has come out in the past 5 years.

[Dough Boy]

Originally Posted by realtick

Agree with everything you're saying.

BTW, there are some pretty tough players at Midwest Southeast Wecan't Play Football University. I'm looking forward to their proday.