Why I Am Looking Forward To Next Season

[Yakuza Rich]

Before I go on, I should first state that this is a long post. I think I have made the points clear, so hopefully it is an easy read. But if you’re not interested, don’t say I didn’t warn you as to the length of the post.

Also, this weekend I spoke to somebody I know is very close to the organization. We discussed a myriad of things, in particular Garrett as the Head Coach. I came away from the conversation with a lot more confidence that Garrett is the right HC for this team. I still want to see him give over the offense to somebody else. But, the conversation hit upon a lot of things I didn’t quite understand and how Garrett is making the entire organization better in the process. Hey, he still has to win games in order to be a good coach. But, this person sold me on the merits of his coaching and why we will eventually win games under him.

One more quick note. I am not at all down on Romo for that game. Ogletree screwed up the first INT. The second and third INT’s are on Romo, but the third one was again caused by a bad playcall to counter the blitz, our inability to counter the blitz all night due to playcalling/scheme design/incompetence on the O-Line being able to run block/great play call by Jim Haslett. But, I saw Romo have a great December, improve rapidly as the season went on with all of the injuries and show some real leadership the entire year, even in the loss last night. We need to look to the future at QB, but the future is not 2013 and probably not 2014 either. For now, Romo is not a big issue for this team.

***

Before each season, I have gone over what I call ‘The System of Parity’ that is the NFL. Simply put, I’m trying to identify the future playoff teams based on certain ‘profiles’ the teams fit into.

EACH year, we have certain teams that make the playoffs that:

a) Won their division in the prior year.
b) Had a losing record in the prior year.
c) Were a wildcard team in the prior year.
d) Were a team that went .500+, but miss the playoffs in the prior year.

Here are the percentages of the teams since 1999:

a) 47% (previous year divisional winner)
b) 28% (previous year team with losing record)
c) 57% (previous year wildcard team)
d) 42% (previous year .500+, but no playoff team)

I think A and B are the most interesting of the bunch. ‘A’ means that since 1999, divisional winners are MORE LIKE TO MISS the playoffs than make the playoffs. And depending upon the number of teams with losing records in the prior year, we are likely to see 3-4 of those teams make the playoffs the next season.

Of course, 2012 was a wacky year.

We had 6 of the 8 2011 divisional winners return to the playoffs. Since 1999, the most we had return to the playoffs was 5. That was in the 2004 season for the 2003 divisional winners. Other than that, winning the division has usually been a kiss of death unless you have Peyton Manning or Tom Brady as your Quarterback.

So, why was 2012 different?

1) All of the AFC division winners returned. This is good for Dallas since we are not in the AFC.

2) In each of the last 4 years (2008-2011), we only had 3 of the 8 division winners return to the playoffs. So, we were possibly due for a ‘system overload.’

3) We only had 12 teams with losing records in 2011. Historically, the lower the amount of teams with losing records the MORE LIKELY the division winners will return to the playoffs the next season.
But, it didn’t stop there. 4 of the playoffs teams this year had losing records in 2011 (Seattle, Indianapolis, Washington and Minnesota).

This was a bit odd because we only had 12 teams with losing records. History dictates that only 3 of these teams should have made the playoffs. Instead, 4 made the playoffs.

My main reasoning behind this is that it still part of the ‘after effect’ of the 2010 season when the entire NFC West had a losing record.

But outside of the wacky 2012 season, there is a reason for why the playoff teams are this way. The NFL has created a SYSTEM of parity. The league creates harder schedules for divisional winners. They give the division winners worse draft picks. And they give the worse teams first dibs on players cut from their contract.

***

So, what does this mean for Dallas?

I think it means that we are in better shape to win the Super Bowl in 2013 by NOT winning the division this year.

Granted, I do believe in what Wayne Gretzky once said ‘you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.’ So yes, losing to the Skins hurts. But, it is hardly the end of the world in Cowboys land. Regardless of how badly we want to blow the organization up to smithereens.

Here’s a look at the last 10 Super Bowl winners and what they did in the prior season (in parenthesis)

2011 NY Giants (10-6 missed playoffs)
2010 Green Bay (wildcard team)
2009 New Orleans (8-8 missed playoffs)
2008 Pittsburgh (division winner)
2007 NY Giants (8-8 missed playoffs)
2006 Indianapolis (division winner)
2005 Pittsburgh (division winner)
2004 New England (Super Bowl Champ)
2003 New England (9-7 missed playoffs)
2002 Tampa Bay (wildcard team)

As you can see, 4 of the last 10 winners won their division the prior year. And 2 came from the SpyGate Patriots (w/Brady). One came from Peyton Manning. And the other 2 came from the Steelers and Roethlisberger.

The other 6 teams were either wildcard teams or went .500+ and missed the playoffs the prior season.

***

This year we have 16 teams with losing records. The numbers project that 4 of those teams will return to the playoffs.

And like I mentioned, the years there are FEWER teams with losing records historically means it is BETTER for the division winners. But, the opposite is also true. The years with more teams with losing records has been historically more difficult on the division winners.

Furthermore, the lack of success of 2nd year QB’s in the league is astounding (see Cam Newton). Thus, I like our chances against the Redskins whom have a second year QB, won the division and their QB already looks injury prone. In fact, I am much more concerned with the G-Men in 2013 than the Redskins.

So all is not down in Cowboys world. Yeah, it sucks losing to a divisional rival. It would be nice if the NFL would provide us with a more reasonable schedule than have us playing road games at the end of the year. Yeah, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. But, it is overly optimistic that we would have done something in the playoffs with the M*A*S*H unit we have out there.

And I really believe that this team is not that far away from reaching football nirvana. We desperately need to improve the safety play. We need to improve a lot at RT. We need our running game to get much better and we need to stay healthy. But, it sure beats needing a new QB or pass rushers or 2 new corners or new WR’s, etc.

There is no reason why this team can’t be ultimately successful in 2013 if they play their cards right (insert your "Jerry is incompetent" remarks) and get a little bit of luck on our side.







YR

[Eddie]

YR, regardless of who the HC is, do we really think this organization has it in itself to become a contender? What has happened over the past 16 years that makes us believe we're nothing more than the Lions, Jets, and Bills?

It's the same old song and dance for 16 years. We've become a pathetic joke. How many more 8-8 playoff-less seasons will we endure?

We're stuck in neutral with an all-knowing GM/President/Owner/Dictator/Oppressor/Emperor sitting in his golden palace believing that we're a player away from contending. How many more draft picks are we going to throw away?

I'm really tired of this. We may as well be the Jets. Same old pathetic nonsense. The Cowboys have become a tired joke. Wearing Cowboy colors invites ridicule ... and heck, some people even feel sorry for us. That's how pathetic this organization has become.

Is it all on Romo? Definitely not. But I'm ready to move on without him. Fool me once. Fool me twice. Fool me 5 out of 7 years. He doesn't have what it takes. We keep talking about giving him support ... same old song and dance.

No need to blow up the team. But a new QB is in order.

[DBOY3141]

Please share what your friend states about Garrett.

Sorry, I see the same product that I've seen from 17 years.

2 problems - JJ is a terrible GM and Romo is not a winner. Stats are worthless. Great QB's do not make the same mistakes over and over. When it matters most, Romo fails. Got it the team has no business being 8-8 with this many injuries, but they were and down by 3, Romo makes a bonehead play.

Romo is great for fantasy football but he chokes when it matters most and his big boss is only about money. 8-8 still makes him a ton of money.

We the fans are stupid for buying into this clown college

[Zordon]

i look forward to next regular season as well.

it's when january comes around that the fun will begin again.

seriously, if romo threw for 6k yds and 50 tds in the regular season does it really mean anything anymore?

[Eddie]

Originally Posted by DBOY3141

Please share what your friend states about Garrett.

Sorry, I see the same product that I've seen from 17 years.

2 problems - JJ is a terrible GM and Romo is not a winner. Stats are worthless. Great QB's do not make the same mistakes over and over. When it matters most, Romo fails. Got it the team has no business being 8-8 with this many injuries, but they were and down by 3, Romo makes a bonehead play.

Romo is great for fantasy football but he chokes when it matters most and his big boss is only about money. 8-8 still makes him a ton of money.

We the fans are stupid for buying into this clown college

Nothing will change next year. We're going with a few bandaids, and Romo will pull out some magic in the regular season. When the season's on the line, he will falter again.

Jerry Jones will blame this season on injuries, and believe that if we had Lee and Carter in their, we'd be undefeated.

[Risen Star]

Well, I'm always looking forward to the next football season but I can't tell you I'm optimistic about the Cowboys' chances until I see what they do in the offseason.

What they did last offseason didn't work. Now they need to get serious and address the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. You're not going to fix it all in one offseason but you can do enough to compete next year.

[CATCH17]

Whoever you spoke to about Garrett being good for this team is delusional.

[CATCH17]

Originally Posted by Risen Star

Well, I'm always looking forward to the next football season but I can't tell you I'm optimistic about the Cowboys' chances until I see what they do in the offseason.

What they did last offseason didn't work. Now they need to get serious and address the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. You're not going to fix it all in one offseason but you can do enough to compete next year.

Won't matter. Oline did a solid job last night and the coordinator did nothing to help them out.

[Risen Star]

Originally Posted by CATCH17

Won't matter. Oline did a solid job last night and the coordinator did nothing to help them out.

O-line did okay against a bad front seven.

D-line was horrific. Anytime you give up nearly 300 yards rushing and the opposing QB can get away with 100 yards and a 50% completion percentage you have a serious problem. And one that can't be addressed by making another coaching change or trading up for a cornerback.

[Yakuza Rich]

Originally Posted by Eddie

YR, regardless of who the HC is, do we really think this organization has it in itself to become a contender? What has happened over the past 16 years that makes us believe we're nothing more than the Lions, Jets, and Bills?

1) Much better overall records than these teams since 2007.

2) Much better starting QB.

3) The Jets are not exactly lousy, going to the AFC Championship game twice.

4) Win-Loss record in NFC East is the BEST in any conference in last 10 years. AFC East is arguably the worst division in football sans the Patriots.

Comparing us to the Bills and Lions is going overboard.

Wearing Cowboy colors invites ridicule ... and heck, some people even feel sorry for us. That's how pathetic this organization has become.

Nobody is forcing you to be a fan of the Cowboys.

I don't want to seem mean spirited about it, but if all fans of every team understood this, then maybe we would be treated better by the owners and players.

Is it all on Romo? Definitely not. But I'm ready to move on without him. Fool me once. Fool me twice. Fool me 5 out of 7 years. He doesn't have what it takes. We keep talking about giving him support ... same old song and dance.

No need to blow up the team. But a new QB is in order.

We need to move on, but 2013 isn't the time. Good, young QB's MUST be developed right. You need to find one with the talent, mechanics and collegiate playing experience. Then you need to give him a supporting cast.

If he doesn't have that and you start him right away, you get Mark Sanchez and Blaine Gabbert. The Andrew Luck's and RG3's of the world come around once every 20 years.

I would rather draft a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round, give him 1-2 years to sit and develop, then let him take over for Romo.

And I don't see this QB draft class being all that special. I think Ryan Nassib could be a nice 4th round pick that could develop if given time on the bench. I think Matt Barkley is a 1st rounder that needs time to develop. Other than that, there is no answer for 2013 and probably not 2014.

But again, we don't get to have a chance this year if it weren't for Romo.







YR

[BoysFan4ever]

Originally Posted by CATCH17

Whoever you spoke to about Garrett being good for this team is delusional.

I agree.

[CATCH17]

Originally Posted by Risen Star

O-line did okay against a bad front seven.

D-line was horrific. Anytime you give up nearly 300 yards rushing and the opposing QB can get away with 100 yards and a 50% completion percentage you have a serious problem. And one that can't be addressed by making another coaching change or trading up for a cornerback.

Defense did all they could considering what they have to work with.

We just got out schemed bigtime on both sides of the ball and not having an answer put Romo in choke mode.

[newlander]

Originally Posted by DBOY3141

Please share what your friend states about Garrett.

Sorry, I see the same product that I've seen from 17 years.

2 problems - JJ is a terrible GM and Romo is not a winner. Stats are worthless. Great QB's do not make the same mistakes over and over. When it matters most, Romo fails. Got it the team has no business being 8-8 with this many injuries, but they were and down by 3, Romo makes a bonehead play.

Romo is great for fantasy football but he chokes when it matters most and his big boss is only about money. 8-8 still makes him a ton of money.

We the fans are stupid for buying into this clown college

.....not much to add really: it'll be 7-9 wins again next year. Not enough to contend but just enough to fill the seats. Hate me some JJ

[Yakuza Rich]

Originally Posted by DBOY3141

Please share what your friend states about Garrett.

He's not my friend. I met him playing golf.

Essentially, Garrett is providing this team with a structure that promotes consistency from the players. Win, lose or draw...Garrett is enforcing players to practice mentally and physically with consistency, game in and game out.

The problem he said with Wade is that if the team won, no matter how sloppy it looked all that mattered was that we won. Thus, we would get inconsistent play, 44-6 blowouts, teams that would quit easily, teams that couldn't handle success, etc.

The problem is that with Wade he brought in a lot of players with this inconsistent, 'all that matters is we won' mentality and Garrett is weeding these players out. But with the salary cap and roster limits, it takes a while in order to do so. And if you can turn a player around instead of having to replace him, you are better off in the end.

It was far more passionate then I am presenting it. And I'm sure I'm leaving some things out that I can't recall. But, it did give me confidence in Garrett.

I still think he needs to give up the offense to somebody like a Cam Cameron or Callahan. But, I think once we get a few more of his type of players in the fold, we'll be in really good shape.





YR

[hipfake08]

Originally Posted by Eddie

Is it all on Romo? Definitely not. But I'm ready to move on without him. Fool me once. Fool me twice. Fool me 5 out of 7 years. He doesn't have what it takes. We keep talking about giving him support ... same old song and dance.

No need to blow up the team. But a new QB is in order.

I'll go this direction. I do not think at this point Romo is the be all end all like the Manning Brothers or RG III you can insert some other here also.

I do know the Cowboys will have to make a move to get a QB for the future in a year or two. Maybe trade for future number 1's and see what happens to those teams. Maybe bundle some picks like the Redskins for their shot.
This year is not a good year to trade up for a QB. From what I have seen the best is over at Texas A&M.

As for the Redskins they gave up a lot to get a great player but may have hurt their chances at getting anyone great to go along with RGIII for the coming years. But if they hit the 6th round pick like they did last year they will live off that and free agency. I still think the CAP penalty will hurt their chances next year and the year after. Also RGIII could end up the Mike Vick route with injury problems. Hopefully he heals up well in the off season.

We need to get smart. I also think while the defensive injuries hurt us badly they will show who is a player and who is not. They will not have to draft for some areas.

Can someone buy Felix Jones the book "Run to Daylight." He has lost he was. All he does is run into the pile.

The O line play got better as we ended the year. I don't remember many bone head calls against them the last few games. Well not as many.
I would hope we invest a high pick here.

See you over in the Draft forum.