Iowa Straw Poll

[Danny White]

The Iowa Republican Straw Poll is this weekend, so I thought I'd post a couple different articles that show some early predictions. After both predicting Romney wins, the two articles have very different analysis.

Since E.B.'s and Iowan, I'm especially curious to get your take on them.

Here's the first:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...mney_as_1.html

August 06, 2007
Iowa Republicans See Romney As Straw Poll Winner
By Reid Wilson

With a week to go before the Iowa Republican Party's critical straw poll, an informal survey of Iowa Republican Party leaders, conducted by Real Clear Politics, shows high expectations for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Those high expectations of local party leaders could be a huge benefit, if Romney meets them, or a painful negative should he fail. The numbers, and the expectations for all the candidates, show a race that could dramatically change on Saturday.

Of the 30 Republican officials - representing county parties around the state and the party's Central Committee - who responded to the survey via email, 93% picked Romney to win in Ames. Many saw his commitment to the state as indicative that he will prevail next Saturday; the same percentage said it was Romney whose campaign had the most visible presence in their locations.

[View Full Quote]Poll participants were asked to predict the top five finishers at the straw poll, and answers were ranked in order. A first place vote was worth five points, a second place vote was worth four points, et cetera, meaning 150 points was the maximum one candidate could achieve.



Romney scored 144 points out of 150 possible. Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo, who, according to an ABC/WP poll of Iowa voters, is the top choice of 5% of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, finished a distant second, with 59 points. Tancredo, though, led national front-runners Rudy Giuliani, who finished third with 55 points, and Fred Thompson, who finished sixth with 41 points. Neither Giuliani nor Thompson are actively participating in the straw poll.

Tancredo's second-place finish, if that lead holds on Saturday, would be a massive coup for a campaign driven largely by the congressman's views on illegal immigration and the war on terror. 20% of respondents, a slight plurality, said Tancredo had the most to gain at the poll, and that his performance would improve his standings in national polls. Aside from Romney, Tancredo was the only candidate to receive any first-place votes.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, a libertarian in the truest sense of the word, did not receive a single vote in the poll. The lone anti-war voice on the GOP stage, Paul would be unlikely to earn support, or even notice, of people involved in Republican circles enough to be an elected board member.

The most intriguing subplot leading up to the poll on Saturday has been an increasingly bitter feud between two candidates vying for the religious vote. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee have for weeks accused the other of dirty campaign tactics, the latest incident being an email a Huckabee supporter sent to two Brownback supporters urging them to drop the senator, a Catholic, in favor of the governor, a Baptist minister. When Brownback's campaign complained to the press, Huckabee's manager urged Brownback to "stop whining."

The two face an uncertain future after Saturday's vote. Both are low on money, and both are counting on a voting bloc that, if divided, could see its influence over the GOP nomination wane. Iowa is home to more evangelical Christians than any state, proportionally, outside the South, and with a united bloc, either Huckabee or Brownback could cause the front-runners trouble. Taking either candidate's best score on all 30 ballots, their 72 points easily trumps any candidate but Romney. Divided, Huckabee finishes fourth, with 52 points, while Brownback's 42 points come in fifth.

Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, who has said he will drop out if he does not perform well in Iowa, is not expected by Iowa's Republican elite to rise to the top. If Thompson does come in seventh, at 32 points and behind Fred Thompson, his campaign may come to a premature close.

But it was not Thompson who most respondents said had the most to lose come Saturday. Instead, Arizona Senator John McCain, once the front-runner, and Romney are seen as the two risking the most come the weekend, with 30% naming each when asked. McCain, who announced he would not participate in the event mere hours after Giuliani did, is the victim of an Iowa Republican electorate still furious with him for ignoring them in 2000 and again this year, as well as for what they perceive as his less-than-complete conservatism. McCain, said one respondent representative of many in the survey, "is not a loyal Republican."

Romney, though, is the front-runner with a strong potential upside and the steepest possible downside. The candidates' performance at yesterday's debate, broadcast as a special edition of ABC's "This Week," showed that others recognized Romney's front-runner status in Iowa as well. Romney defended himself from charges from Brownback, who accused the Massachusetts governor of failing to be completely pro-life.

Seeking to boost their own support while cutting Romney down, other candidates "have hinged their efforts into trying to tear us down," said Romney spokesman Kevin Madden. "A lot of analysts will watch and see if anybody has a kamikaze mission, so to speak, that's going to effect us."

Though Romney is widely viewed as the candidate poised to walk away with the straw poll and thought of as the strongest organizationally in Iowa, there is a danger that many of the voters he busses in from around the state may not intend to follow through on voting for him. "People are known to show up at the straw poll with a ticket paid for by candidate A, yet they vote for candidate B," wrote one respondent, recalling businessman Steve Forbes' 1999 campaign. Forbes "bussed in a lot more people than he got votes from."

The candidates with the greatest potential, according to most, are those in the so-called second tier, candidates without the money to compete directly with Romney or Giuliani. In Ames, it could be a good day for several contestants near the back of the pack. "They have the opportunity to show strong support from activists and potentially gather momentum in other states," said Sioux County Republican chairman Mark Lundberg.

Respondents to the poll differed on candidates they support, but their views on who the opposition will be come 2008 could hardly have been more unified. All but two predicted that New York Senator Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee, though two believed it would be either her or Illinois Senator Barack Obama. One respondent declined to guess, while another predicted the Democratic winner would be either Delaware Senator Joe Biden or former North Carolina Senator John Edwards.

Asked which candidate would be best able to defeat Clinton or whomever may be the eventual Democratic nominee, Iowa Republican leaders chose Giuliani, by a small 30% plurality, over Romney, who finished second with 23%.

As the straw poll draws near, pressure on candidates builds. Each campaign is operating at full speed to entice their voters to the polls. "We're working very hard every day making calls and trying to motivate our voters," said Brownback's Rob Wasinger. "We're putting an investment of staff and an investment of time there," said Jesse Benton, spokesman for Ron Paul.

Underscoring the importance of Ames, Benton responded to request for comment on his way to Iowa. Wasinger, Brownback's national campaign manager, has been in Ames since last week. They are but the first of what could be up to 40,000 visitors the sleepy college town hosts next week for what will be the most pivotal moment thus far in the Republican race.

Reid Wilson, an associate editor and writer for RealClearPolitics, formerly covered polls and polling for The Hotline, National Journal’s daily briefing on politics. Wilson’s work has appeared in National Journal, Hotline OnCall and the Arizona Capitol Times. He can be reached at reid@realclearpolitics.com

[Danny White]

And here's the second:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/app...=2007708050328

Yepsen: Straw poll might mean more than you think
Even without front-runners, results could speak to strength of message, organizational prowess.

By DAVID YEPSEN
REGISTER POLITICAL COLUMNIST

August 5, 2007


In the 1980 Republican presidential caucus campaign, Tennessee Sen. Howard Baker said one function of the Iowa caucuses was to "winnow the field" of candidates.

By that he meant Iowa caucus-goers in both parties take presidential campaigns with large numbers of candidates and cut the field to a more manageable size for voters in other states to consider.

For Republicans, the Iowa scythe comes out Saturday.

That's when the state Republican Party stages its colorful but controversial "straw poll" at Hilton Coliseum in Ames.

[View Full Quote]With a $35 ticket, any Iowan who will be 18 on Election Day 2008 can cast a vote for a Republican presidential candidate. (You don't even have to be a registered Republican, but you do have to show a government-issued photo ID, or student photo ID from an Iowa school, to prove your Iowa-ness.)

One week from today, some of the candidates who do poorly will no longer be standing in the race. They will be damaged goods contemplating a withdrawal from the contest, because their fundraising will wither.

Is this fair? Is too much made of this poll? Could there be surprises? And most important to political observers, what's the handicap on how candidates will do?


The handicap

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain, two of the national leaders in the race, said they weren't going to compete in the event. They might still get votes from their supporters, but the two are not actively organizing to buy tickets and turn out votes.

Some in the party once estimated 50,000 people would show up, but that number has been scaled back to 35,000 or so following the withdrawals. Party officials also say some rank-and-file Republicans are unhappy with the party these days and might not attend, although they hope a crowd in the thousands will help boost morale.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is expected to win. He leads in opinion polls of Iowa Republicans and has run a disciplined campaign in the state. Following the withdrawal of Giuliani and McCain, Romney announced he was cutting back his effort. He still planned to win, he said, just not run up the score.

That looks like a wise decision - there's no point paying for more tickets than you need. But he could look bad if someone comes close to him because he slacked off. An upset would stun his campaign.

The big battle is for the second- and third-place finishes. Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson are competing hard for these "place" and "show" positions. The outcome could knock one or more from the race.

Brownback probably leads the competition, though Thompson has waged an intense, 99-county campaign in the state. Thompson indicated last week he would have to reconsider his candidacy if he doesn't finish first or second.

Brownback has courted social conservatives and attacked Romney for flip-flopping on abortion by moving from a pro-choice to a pro-life stance. Romney has said he changed his mind on the subject, just as Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush did.

Brownback has also worked other groups in the party, such as economic conservatives unhappy with the tax system.

All other candidates are expected to finish far behind. None has much chance of winning the nomination. Their efforts are considered to be more protest or token candidacies than serious bids for the White House. So, a poor showing in the poll isn't likely to deter them from continuing their quixotic efforts.


Possible surprises

The political community will be watching to see how former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson does. He's not yet announced and won't be at the event, yet there is considerable buzz for his candidacy in GOP circles. A recent KCCI-TV poll shows him running in second place among likely GOP caucus-goers. A good showing from straw-poll attendees could further boost his standing, representing a spontaneous show of support.

Also, Giuliani and McCain might get some votes despite their opting out of the competition to buy meal tickets and votes. If their totals are good, that, too, would boost their candidacies. As it is, they are not expected to do well and can spin a poor showing by saying they weren't engaged in the ticket buying.

Surprises could happen because a fair number of attendees buy their own tickets or make up their own mind. They aren't robots paid for by a campaign. Some Romney supporters are worried about attendees mooching a ticket off their man to go vote for someone else.

One surprise could come from Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who is attracting a zealous following of younger, libertarian supporters. Some of them are promising a good showing in the voting.


Likely significance

The results could tell us something about social conservatives and whether they are starting to rally to one candidate or another. So far, they've been dividing among several of the candidates, or are remaining undecided, much to Giuliani's advantage. About the only way he can win the caucuses and the nomination is if this key constituency remains fractured.

The results also tell us something about a candidate's message and organizational prowess, two things that are often harbingers of success in the caucuses themselves.

Campaigns spend weeks looking for supporters, signing them up, getting tickets in their hands and arranging for bus transportation to and from Ames. It's expensive and time-consuming, but campaigns that opt to compete say it is a good organizational shakedown for caucus night.

The exercise also says something about a candidate's message. A candidate's followers must be inspired enough to go to Ames for the voting.

Even if the candidate provides a free ticket and a round-trip bus ride, supporters need a certain level of dedication to devote a good chunk of a summer Saturday to casting a vote. Candidates such as Paul, who attract passionate supporters, can do well as a result.

The event might also be significant if Republican candidates use it to put distance between themselves and the Bush administration. President Bush is personally popular with many rank-and-file Republicans, but many of these same stalwarts are unhappy with the large increase in federal spending and the protracted Iraq war.

Candidates are given 20 minutes for speeches to the crowd, and the event draws considerable national media attention. It's an opportunity for the candidates to signal to Americans how their administrations would be different from the current one. Given the party's low standing in the polls, that will have to happen sooner or later.

Instead of any Bush-bashing, it's more likely the speeches will give candidates an opportunity to unveil new themes or attacks as they try to attract straw-poll voters and reach a larger audience in Iowa and around the country.

Role as harbinger

The straw poll may tell us something about who the Republican nominee will be and who it won't be. In the last three cycles in which Republicans had competitive fights for the nomination, the eventual winner of the nomination finished among the top three in the straw poll.

For the 1988 race, nominee George H.W. Bush finished third in the 1987 straw poll. For 1996, nominee Bob Dole finished first in 1995's straw poll. The 2000 nominee, George W. Bush, finished first in the straw poll in 1999.

The 1987 victor was Christian broadcasting executive Pat Robertson. His win stunned the Bush forces and prompted a shake-up in his campaign. It was a sign Bush was in trouble in Iowa and foreshadowed his third-place showing in the caucuses.

Robertson's win also confirmed the rising strength of religious conservatives in the party, a group that's been a force ever since.

The difference between those earlier straw-poll contests and this one is the decision by front-runners not to participate. What does a playoff like this tell us if the leading teams in the league aren't playing? Maybe not much.

Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson don't need a straw-poll win to raise money or improve their national name recognition. But by not competing, they allow Romney, the expected winner, a boost of media attention and a chance to develop momentum that might be difficult to stop in later contests.


Fairness questions

The poll has several limitations. First, people have to pay to vote. Also, they must come to Ames. Those two factors give an advantage to people living close to Ames and those with enough money for a ticket. The presidential campaigns pay for many of the tickets, which makes this a pay-to-play proposition.

The event might give Iowa even more influence over the nominating process of the Republican Party. Iowa already hosts the caucuses, which winnow the field. With emergence of the straw poll as an important test, critics say Iowa gets "two bites at the apple."

The Iowa Republican Party defends the poll as a grass-roots organizational effort that helps motivate party faithful and raises money for state and local campaigns. The money also helps defray the costs of staging the caucuses.

Critics also say we media types over-blow the event. August is often a slow news month, and the hoopla of the straw poll, coupled with the colorful Iowa State Fair at the same time, provide irresistible photo opportunities.

[Eric_Boyer]

I find that first article hilarious but it is encouraging. Exceeding expectations has always been the most important aspect of the straw poll.

Most Iowa Republican Party Leaders are paid staff for Romney though, so I laughed when I read it.

Romney has to win and win big - anything else is a major loss for his election campaign -and he is in jeopardy of not finishing first. Fred Thompons name is going to be on those ballots - and unlike Guliani and McCain (who are also listed on the ballot) - he didn't skip the straw poll - he simply hasn't announced. So republican leaders in Iowa aren't throwing him under the bus like they are with McGhoul.

My prediction is Thompson, Romney, and Paul are 1-2-3 in some order. Tancredo is the real wildcard. He gets a good crowd at events as well and those that support hium do so passionately. They will make the drive and pay the money to vote - but how many are there?

Whoever performs worst out of Brownback and Huckabee will drop out. Sorry -but my hunch is Brownback finishes lower then Huckabee. Tommy Thompson is going to drop out as well.

I'm telling you guys - the Paul bandwagon is so much bigger then the media is reporting on. You can get hints however. Today Hagel suggested he might run for president - citing the size of the anti-war position in the republican party as a reason to consider it.

I was in Fairfield last night. 8:00 pm on a sunday night - hot and humid as hell - and he still had about 575 people show up to listen to him talk. I've never seen so many bib overalls in my life - and on issues of the war they cheered wildly.

[Danny White]

How many votes do you think it'll take to finish in the top 3?

[Eric_Boyer]

Originally Posted by Danny White

How many votes do you think it'll take to finish in the top 3?

Less then most people think.

In 1999 it took 3,400 votes to finish third

This year the ticket price is $10 more. The republican base in Iowa has shrunk, and with all the top tier sitting out but 1 - the interest to show up isn't there. If we sold 23,000 tickets in 1999 I would expect slightly less this time. That is the big question though. We have an idea of the absolute miniumum number we got coming and even our worse case scenario will surprise the country.


Here is my predition

6,200 - first place

3,900 - second place

2,100 - third place.

2,000 - fourth place

1,700 - fifth place

About 20,000 tickets will get sold and about 80% of the people will vote. In 1999 it was closer to 23,000 tickets sold but bigger names participated and a$10 increase is a big deal.

[Danny White]

Originally Posted by Eric_Boyer

Less then most people think.

In 1999 it took 3,400 votes to finish third

This year the ticket price is $10 more. The republican base in Iowa has shrunk, and with all the top tier sitting out but 1 - the interest to show up isn't there. If we sold 23,000 tickets in 1999 I would expect slightly less this time. That is the big question though. We have an idea of the absolute miniumum number we got coming and even our worse case scenario will surprise the country.


Here is my predition

6,200 - first place

3,900 - second place

2,100 - third place.

2,000 - fourth place

1,700 - fifth place

About 20,000 tickets will get sold and about 80% of the people will vote. In 1999 it was closer to 23,000 tickets sold but bigger names participated and a$10 increase is a big deal.

Wow, good information.

It doesn't seem like it would be too tough to get 2000-3000 votes if you have a good organization, but I guess that looks like the tipping point right there between respectable and also-ran.

I'm really looking forward to seeing this event first-hand. Should be fun!

[Eric_Boyer]

Originally Posted by Danny White

Wow, good information.

It doesn't seem like it would be too tough to get 2000-3000 votes if you have a good organization, but I guess that looks like the tipping point right there between respectable and also-ran.

I'm really looking forward to seeing this event first-hand. Should be fun!

Take my optmism with a grain of salt though. A Ron Paul guy isn't exactly a GOP insider.

Still, they claimed to expect 50,000 votes - then downgraded it to 35,000 after Gulini and McCain backed out. Why would 13,000 more people come now then in 1999? In 1999 we were sick of the democrats, now we are sick of the republicans again.

Still, the Ames straw poll is a great time. I just wish the weather wasn't going to be so miserable. Plan on it being super hot and super humid.

And if you get there Friday night - come check out RonStock. We keep adding more and more bands.

[Danny White]

Originally Posted by Eric_Boyer

Still, the Ames straw poll is a great time. I just wish the weather wasn't going to be so miserable. Plan on it being super hot and super humid.

Is the whole thing going to be outside?

[CowboyJeff]

In Saturday's debate (broadcast on ABC), I thought Mitt Romney looked the most presidential (albeit sometimes too slick). I thought he won Saturday's debate as well as debate #2 (the one in May where Giuliani spanked Paul).

[Danny White]

Originally Posted by CowboyJeff

In Saturday's debate (broadcast on ABC), I thought Mitt Romney looked the most presidential (albeit sometimes too slick). I thought he won Saturday's debate as well as debate #2 (the one in May where Giuliani spanked Paul).

Yeah Romney certainly looks the part. I just question the sincerity and depth of many of his views.

[Eric_Boyer]

Originally Posted by Danny White

Is the whole thing going to be outside?

The actual vote and stump speeches are inside but the best action takes place outside. I enjoy watching groups from one camp go and heckle the tents from the other camps. He with the largest blowhorn wins.

And of course all the free goodies are diustributed outside.

You only need the ticket to get inside, and if you can't vote as a non-resident - it seems like a waste of money to buy a ticket to go in IMO.

[Danny White]

Originally Posted by Eric_Boyer

The actual vote and stump speeches are inside but the best action takes place outside. I enjoy watching groups from one camp go and heckle the tents from the other camps. He with the largest blowhorn wins.

And of course all the free goodies are diustributed outside.

You only need the ticket to get inside, and if you can't vote as a non-resident - it seems like a waste of money to buy a ticket to go in IMO.

Well, you could view the whole trip as a waste of money for me, so I'm not too worried about blowing another $35!

I'm going to support my client and to get a feel for the whole experience.

[Eric_Boyer]

Originally Posted by CowboyJeff

In Saturday's debate (broadcast on ABC), I thought Mitt Romney looked the most presidential (albeit sometimes too slick). I thought he won Saturday's debate as well as debate #2 (the one in May where Giuliani spanked Paul).

He probably did win the Saturday debate. Good thing it went completely untelevised and nobody else showed up. The debate was vs his dog, right?

On the sunday debate that the rest of the free world had access to, he sucked arse.

I loved it when the crowd erupted with Ron Paul's stance and Romney mutters something about 9/11 and turns to Guliani hoping for someone to back him up. Guliani learned a long time ago not to go down that road again. America is sick of being lied to and winning the general election becomes harder and harder the longer these guys lie about Iraq.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by CowboyJeff

In Saturday's debate (broadcast on ABC), I thought Mitt Romney looked the most presidential (albeit sometimes too slick). I thought he won Saturday's debate as well as debate #2 (the one in May where Giuliani spanked Paul).

Is that the one we talked about last week where the youtube was posted?

If so, I remember no such 'spanking.' I remember a good, logical stance by Paul and a sputtering of sophistry from Rudy.

In addition, I seem to remember that Rudy's mic wasn't even supposed to be on. If that isn't media meddling....

[CowboyJeff]

Originally Posted by Eric_Boyer

He probably did win the Saturday debate. Good thing it went completely untelevised and nobody else showed up. The debate was vs his dog, right?

On the sunday debate that the rest of the free world had access to, he sucked arse.

I loved it when the crowd erupted with Ron Paul's stance and Romney mutters something about 9/11 and turns to Guliani hoping for someone to back him up. Guliani learned a long time ago not to go down that road again. America is sick of being lied to and winning the general election becomes harder and harder the longer these guys lie about Iraq.

Sorry, it was the Sunday debate I was referring to that ABC covered in the morning. Regarding your wishful vision of how any candidate fares who's names are not Ron Paul, I would expect nothing less from someone who supports the Republican version of Dennis Kucinich.