Originally Posted by Shinywalrus
If you create a categorical variable called "1H Points Above 10" and "1h Points 10 or Fewer" you get a similar R-squared.
The flaw in the statistical analysis is that teams who score poorly in the first half tend to score poorly in the second half, but that's not really true for us. What sort of qualitative assessments could you guess at based on this?
That we don't gameplan well, but we make good adjustments, perhaps?
That we try and fail to establish the run in the first half but are forced into passing in the second, at which we tend to be more successful?
Probably some validity to both.
Degree of truth there. Like I said in a previous post, I think people remember comebacks mean reversion would submit that strong teams outscore opponents in most every quarter over time. Stronger teams perform better early and can make another team one dimensional
However, I think there is a case to be made that usually going into the half with a lead (which means scoring points) is statistically beneficial and increases your chances of winning. The top teams always seem to be in this category.
I tried to illustrate that teams that score early have a better record. Basically Denver is the only outlier to that