Originally Posted by CanadianCowboysFan
no team would go for it all the time, risk far outweighs the reward
There is actually more evidence that suggests that ALWAYS going for it on 4th down is the right thing to do. There is a professor from California that NFL Films did a piece on where he recorded years of NFL data and that in the end, a team that ALWAYS goes for it on 4th down would be at a significant advantage. Obviously, it's tough to convince coaches, owners, etc. of that, but the evidence is there to suggest it.
That's what guys like Chip Kelly do, being unafraid to go for it on 4th and 3 at their own 28 yard line against conference rivals. The numbers support it. He uses more of a modified version of the statistical model which looks at the odds for each 4th down situation, but the model more suggests going for it than not going for it.
And we may end up with a situation where teams eventually decide to go for it every down because the numbers work in their way. Then we start to play half-field football. Or something disastrous may happen where the first team to score a TD wins 80% of the time. And records do matter to fans of any sport, which would now be completely off kilter.
Personally, I don't mind looking at the suggestion. But with Goodell, he's so eager to change things around, perhaps so he can make his mark on this league, that he may just institute it. This is what happens when your commissioner is hired to be a puppet for the owners.